THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League matches with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action includes the Merseyside Derby at 5.30pm – LIVERPOOL v EVERTON.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
SOUTHAMPTON V CHELSEA
12.30pm We have another fantastic Saturday in the Premier League with some fascinating betting heats! All football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today too so fingers crossed we can bang in a few winners – it was superb to land every recommended bet last Saturday! We start the day with Southampton hosting Chelsea who continued their winning runs since sacking Frank Lampard on Monday night against Newcastle. I think it’s fair to say they have yet to be fully tested with Spurs in woeful form and without Harry Kane when they played. They meet Southampton with the Saints in poor form too, and this strikes me as a good time to back Chelsea again.
Southampton have had some tough fixtures recently, but they come into this game on a worrying losing run. They performed very well against Aston Villa looking at their xG figures and still lost, but since then their figures have been very poor. We can write off the 9-0 loss to Man United but they went on to lose against Newcastle and then created very little against Wolves last weekend – they did beat them in the FA Cup prior to that clash however. Chelsea have been slowly improving and they put in their best xG figures since Lampard went against Newcastle on Monday night – they’ve also been very solid at the back and I think this is the time to be against Southampton. The 1.81 on Chelsea is well worth starting the day with.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Chelsea to beat Southampton at 1.81 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouchl
- Southampton have lost their last five home league games against Chelsea, their longest losing run against a specific opponent in their league history.
- Chelsea haven’t failed to win either of their league meetings with Southampton in a season since 2014-15, when they drew 1-1 both home and away against them.
- Southampton have lost 24 Premier League games against Chelsea; only versus Manchester United (28) have they lost more in the competition.
- Chelsea have lost only two of their last 28 away Premier League games on the south coast (W21 D5 L2), with those defeats coming against Southampton in 2013 (1-2) and Bournemouth in 2019 (0-4).
- Southampton have lost each of their last six Premier League games, conceding 20 goals in the process (3.3 per game) – it’s their longest losing run in the club’s entire Football League history.
- Thomas Tuchel has picked up 13 points from his first five Premier League games in charge of Chelsea (W4 D1), level with José Mourinho’s first five with the club and bettered only by Carlo Ancelotti and Maurizio Sarri (15 pts each). Five of the last 10 managers to go unbeaten in their first six Premier League games have been in charge of Chelsea (Sarri, Ancelotti, Scolari, Mourinho, Gullit).
- Chelsea have won both of their away Premier League games under Thomas Tuchel – the last Chelsea manager to win his first three away games in the competition was Carlo Ancelotti in 2009.
- Ralph Hasenhüttl has lost more Premier League home games than any other Southampton manager (W16 D7 L20). In fact, the Austrian has lost 47% of his home games in the competition with Saints – only Stuart Gray has lost a higher share with the club (71% – 5 of 7).
- Danny Ings has the best minutes-per-goal ratio of any Southampton player with 15+ goals in Premier League history, with the England striker averaging a goal every 161 minutes for the club in the competition.
- Chelsea’s Timo Werner has been directly involved in more Premier League goals this season than any other player at the club (10 – five goals, five assists), while only Mason Mount (105) has had a hand in more shots for the Blues than the German in this season’s competition (73 – 52 shots taken and 21 chances created).
BURNLEY V WEST BROM
3pm I highlighted how important that fixture was for Burnley against Fulham on Wednesday night but they avoided a loss with a 1-1 draw. This fixture isn’t as important, with West Brom well adrift in 19th position. They also kept their eight point cushion over Fulham and it seems extremely unlikely that Fulham will be able to catch them. All that being said, they can’t sit back and not go into this fixture at full tilt. A win here would secure their safety and you have to say they have an excellent chance against a poor West Brom side. West Brom did manage a draw with Man United last weekend, but United were very poor and Burnley have been playing much better football than West Brom recently.
With that in mind, it’s hard to look past Burnley at 2.1 here. I would keep stakes reasonably low as it’s hard to see anything bar a low quality affair here given the two sides are towards the bottom of the table – West Brom are nailed on to go down in their case – but I can see Burnley grinding out a 1-0 or 2-1 win. They were much the better side in their 1-1 draw with Fulham on Wednesday and they played very well to beat Crystal Palace 3-0 last weekend. I’d have Burnley very close to 2.0 here, and the 2.1 is worth taking – especially with 0% commission.
The Striker Says:
One point win Burnley to beat West Brom at 2.1 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburwba
- Burnley have won just one of their seven Premier League meetings with West Brom (D3 L3), winning 2-1 at the Hawthorns in March 2018.
- West Brom won their last away league game against Burnley 1-0 in August 2017. They’ve not won consecutive league visits to Turf Moor since a run of three between 1953 and 1956.
- This will be the 133rd competitive meeting between Burnley and West Brom, with the Clarets losing 56 times in the process (W46 D30); only versus Wolves (66), Man Utd (63), and Preston (57) have they lost more in their history.
- West Brom have won just two of their 24 Premier League games this season (W2 D7 L15) – eight of the 10 previous sides with two or fewer wins at this stage of a Premier League campaign were eventually relegated, with West Brom in 2004-05 one of the teams to escape relegation (also Fulham in 2007-08).
- West Brom have conceded 55 goals in just 24 Premier League games this season, more than any other side across Europe’s top-five leagues. Indeed, 45 of those goals conceded have arrived in open play, 13 more than any other side in the Premier League.
- Burnley won their last Premier League match on Saturday, winning 3-0 at Crystal Palace – the Clarets haven’t won consecutive top-flight games on Saturdays since February 2020 (vs Southampton and Bournemouth).
- West Brom have recorded just two clean sheets from their 24 Premier League games this season – their lowest tally at this stage of a league campaign since 2010-11 (1).
- West Brom manager Sam Allardyce has lost his last two meetings with Burnley, with Crystal Palace in April 2017 and Everton in March 2018. He’d only lost two of his first 15 against the Clarets in all competitions in his managerial career (W8 D5 L2).
- There have been 153 Premier League goals scored on a Saturday by Burnley players, with Ashley Barnes (25) and Chris Wood (22) accounting for 31% of those strikes – however, Barnes’ last Saturday goal in the division came back in November 2019, while Wood last scored on Saturday in the top-flight in July 2020.
- Mbaye Diagne scored his first West Brom goal against Man Utd last time out. Since he joined Kasimpasa in Turkey in January 2018, Diagne has been directly involved in 62 goals in 74 top-flight appearances (56 goals, 6 assists) across spells with Kasimpasa, Galatasaray, Club Brugge and West Brom.
LIVERPOOL V EVERTON
5.30pm The Merseyside Derby, undoubtedly the highlight of the day! I noted in my preview of Everton v Man City on Wednesday how disappointed they must be to not have gone past Liverpool by now and they are still three points behind them. They’ve had a couple of chances to go past Liverpool and into the Top Four but now Chelsea and West Ham have gone past both of them. Everton didn’t play too badly against Man City midweek, although they were never expected to get anything from the game and I would be a lot more worried about their performance against Fulham last weekend. They only created an xG of 0.47 and gave away 2.37. They have thrown in some poor performances lately; the 2-0 loss against Newcastle was another.
We know how poor Liverpool have been lately too – although they got back to winning ways in the Champions League midweek against RB Leipzig. They benefit from two mistakes in that game however, and the jury is still out on them in the Premier League. They looked odds on to retain their title early in the season with Man City dropping points; now they have a big battle on their hands for a Top Four finish. This is always a good game with plenty of drama, but I feel the only call from a betting point of view is the Liverpool lay at 1.5. I fully expect a much closer game than those odds suggest and while Liverpool may well get the job done in the end, the 1.5 is a very good value lay. They haven’t been playing well enough lately to justify these odds, however I’m happy to keep stakes reasonably low because Everton have been disappointing lately.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Everton at 1.5 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivevr
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 23 meetings with Everton in all competitions (W11 D12), their longest unbeaten run against an opponent in their history.
- Everton are winless in their last 20 Premier League games against Liverpool (D12 L8), their longest winless run against an opponent in the competition.
- Liverpool vs Everton is the most drawn fixture in Premier League history, with 24 of the meetings between the sides ending level. The Merseyside derby has also seen more red cards than any other fixture in the competition (22).
- Everton haven’t won any of their last 20 Premier League away games against Liverpool (D9 L11), last winning at Anfield in September 1999 thanks to a Kevin Campbell goal.
- Liverpool haven’t lost four consecutive Premier League matches since December 2002 under Gérard Houllier.
- Liverpool have lost five of their eight Premier League matches in 2021 (W2 D1) – as many as they lost in 72 matches in 2019 and 2020 combined (W54 D13 L5).
- Liverpool have only lost four consecutive home league matches once previously, a run of four that ended on Christmas Day in 1923. The last reigning top-flight champion to lose four home league games in a row was Everton in the 1928-29 season.
- Everton are unbeaten in each of their last seven Premier League away games (W5 D2); they last enjoyed a longer such streak in March 2016 (8 matches).
- Mohamed Salah has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances for Liverpool but ended on the losing side in both. The last player to score in three in a row in the competition but still lose all three was Michail Antonio in September 2016 for West Ham United.
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored eight away goals in the Premier League this season; the only Everton player to score nine on the road in a single Premier League campaign is Romelu Lukaku, who did so in both 2015-16 and 2016-17.
FULHAM V SHEFFIELD UNITED
8pm Another massive game for Fulham. They could only manage a 1-1 draw midweek against Burnley and that has hurt their chances of staying up. I noted prior to that game that a win would have been huge as they need to close the gap on Newcastle and Burnley, and obviously beating those sides is the way to do that as well as hoping they drop points. It now seems likely that they can only catch Newcastle, and if they’re going to achieve that they simply have to win games like this. Sheffield United are certain to go down, but you wouldn’t say they come into this game in poor form as the FA Cup has given them new life in their season.
I don’t feel it’s too dramatic to suggest that if Fulham lose then their chances of staying up become very slim. They start the weekend six points behind Newcastle and they simply have to win games like this. We saw with Watford last season that it’s hard to bridge the gap and also go past because teams at the bottom of the table don’t stay in form for that long. I’d expect a reasonably low quality affair here and a very close game. Fulham didn’t play too well against Burnley midweek and I feel they are a good value lay at 2.28. For similar reasons to the Merseyside Derby above, I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest. Sheffield United have played OK football since their Cup run and the 2.28 is too short on Fulham here given the level they have played at.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Fulham to beat Sheffield United at 2.28 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQfulshe
- Fulham have lost just one of their last eight league games against Sheffield United (W4 D3), going down 0-2 at Bramall Lane in January 2007 in the Premier League.
- Sheffield United have won just one of their last 12 away league games against Fulham (D3 L8) and are winless in their last five visits to Craven Cottage since a 3-2 win in September 1985.
- After a run of 196 consecutive home league matches without a goalless draw, three of Fulham’s last six home Premier League games have ended 0-0. They last had more home goalless draws in a single league season back in 2001-02 (5).
- Sheffield United have only won two of their 27 Premier League games in London (D8 L17), winning at Chelsea in October 1992 (2-1) and Crystal Palace in February 2020 (1-0).
- Fulham have scored just seven goals in 12 home Premier League games this season (W1 D4 L7), fewer than any other club. The only two teams with fewer goals after their opening 12 home Premier League games of a season were Everton in 1998-99 (3) and Huddersfield Town in 2018-19 (5).
- Sheffield United have lost all seven of their Premier League matches played on Saturday this season; the only two teams to lose their first eight Saturday matches in a top-flight season are Man Utd in 1930-31 and Wolves in 1964-65.
- Sheffield United have failed to score in 50% of their 24 Premier League games this season (12 matches) – their highest such share in a single league campaign in their history.
- Fulham are yet to register a single Premier League win on Saturday this season in 10 attempts (D4 L6), playing more games on that day without winning than any other team has on a specific day this season without registering a win.
- Among the 168 managers to take charge of least 10 home Premier League games, only Aidy Boothroyd (3 wins in 19 games with Watford in 2006-07, 15.8%) has a lower home win percentage in the competition than Fulham’s Scott Parker (3 wins in 18, 16.7%).
- Bobby De Cordova-Reid is the only Fulham player with more than one Premier League goal at Craven Cottage this season (3), while the forward is just one goal shy from equalling his home total last term in the Championship (4).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.