THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between CRYSTAL PALACE v MANCHESTER CITY, BRIGHTON v LEEDS, CHELSEA v FULHAM and EVERTON v ASTON VILLA all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
CRYSTAL PALACE V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm We have another excellent Saturday in the Premier League! Man City are short favourites for the early kick off, but other than that we have some very interesting and competitive markets today. All football bets are also 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today! Man City produced an excellent comeback in the second half in their Champions League Semi-Final against PSG midweek, and it’s highly possible that they will already be focused on the second leg next week. They are ten points clear in the Premier League after all, and we landed a nice lay on City at very short odds recently against Leeds when they had the same situation in the Champions League. I know mathematically they could still be caught, but realistically it’s close to impossible. Even if they play their second XI here, once they get into the Champions League Final they can switch focus back to the Premier League.
It’s almost a shame that they are playing a side like Crystal Palace today, as I wouldn’t mind laying City but I won’t be laying them against a side like Palace. They have been poor again this season, not poor enough to go down, but they still conceded too many chances and struggled to score a lot of goals. They have had a tough run of fixtures lately having to play Man United, Spurs, Everton, Chelsea and Leicester. Given the Champions League situation for City, I am happy to keep stakes low here – however under 2.5 goals does catch the eye at 2.2. Palace are unlikely to score and City could just grind out a win here – I’m happy to keep stakes low given how poor Palace are, as early goal could bring a big score line, however under 2.5 goals is still a shade big for me at 2.2 and worth backing.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.2 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcrlmci
- Crystal Palace have lost 13 of their last 17 Premier League meetings with Man City (W2 D2), failing to score on 10 occasions in that run.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last five Premier League away games against Crystal Palace (W4 D1), since a 2-1 defeat in April 2015.
- Crystal Palace have won just two of their 23 Premier League games against sides at the top of the table (D4 L17), with both of those victories coming against Chelsea (March 2014 and April 2017). The Eagles lost their last such game 7-0 at home to Liverpool in December.
- Only Newcastle (27) and West Bromwich Albion (33) have conceded more home goals than Crystal Palace in the Premier League this season (25). Meanwhile, Manchester City have scored more away goals than any other side this term (32).
- Manchester City have won each of their last 10 Premier League away games by an aggregate score of 26-4. Victory here will equal the all-time English top-flight record for consecutive away wins, currently held by Chelsea (April-December 2008) and Man City themselves (May-December 2017).
- Man City have conceded the first goal in each of their last two Premier League games, more than they had in their previous 23 in the competition (1). They last conceded first in three consecutive league games back in November 2019, coming back to win two of those (L1).
- Crystal Palace have lost back-to-back league games for the sixth time this season. They last lost more consecutively in June/July 2020 (a run of 7).
- Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in seven goals in his last seven starts against Crystal Palace in the Premier League (6 goals, 1 assist).
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored 10 Premier League goals this season, his joint-best return in a single league campaign in his career. He’s just the second player to reach double figures in two separate Premier League campaigns for the Eagles, after Luka Milivojevic.
- Man City striker Gabriel Jesus has scored 49 goals in 126 Premier League appearances, and could become just the second Brazilian to reach 50 in the competition after Roberto Firmino.
BRIGHTON V LEEDS
3pm This is a very interesting market. Brighton are clear favourites but I wouldn’t have them as short as 2.22. Leeds have had a tough fixture list lately but they have come through it well – they beat Man City and then managed a 1-1 draw with Liverpool and 0-0 with Man United. Their luck has been up-and-down in the sense that they should have lost against Man City but they should have beaten Liverpool. All things considered, they are playing good football at the moment. Brighton are also playing well, but I would still have them bigger than 2.22 as I see this being a close game. Brighton did a classic “Brighton” last weekend when losing 1-0 to Sheffield United but finishing the game with an xG of 1.96.
I can understand why a lot of football punters would like to back Brighton here as they have had a tough fixture list and they have played well. Not to mention the fact that the xG table puts them in fifth – they are obviously a very good side and play very good football, but this season getting results has been a problem. I feel they have offered a lot of value at times to beat the weaker sides, but with Leeds playing good football I feel Brighton have been over backed here. The draw is tempting 3.6 because I see this game being very close, but I’m happy to lay the Brighton price as I feel it’s just wrong. This should be a high quality fixture for a 3pm game, and it’s worth watching even though it clashes with a lot of sport.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Brighton to beat Leeds at 2.22 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbrilee
- Brighton have won seven of their last eight league games against Leeds, with the exception being a 2-0 loss at Elland Road in March 2017.
- Leeds have lost each of their last four away league games against Brighton by an aggregate score of 9-0 – they’ve never lost five consecutive away games without scoring against an opponent in their league history.
- Leeds United have played more matches at Brighton’s AMEX Stadium without winning than any other stadium in their entire history (6 – D2 L4). Since going 2-0 ahead in the first half of their first game there in 2011 (going on to draw 3-3), Leeds haven’t been ahead for a single minute in any of their subsequent five visits.
- Brighton have drawn more Premier League games than any other side this season (13), with only the current bottom three (5 each) winning fewer games than the Seagulls this term (7).
- Brighton have kept a clean sheet in five of their last seven Premier League home games, losing both matches in which they conceded in that run (W2 D3). In fact, Brighton have failed to win any of their 10 home league games this season in which they’ve conceded at least once (D4 L6).
- Leeds are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games (W3 D3), last having a longer run without defeat in the top-flight between May and November 2001 (13).
- Brighton have the biggest negative difference between goals scored (33) and expected goals (46.9) in the Premier League this season, scoring roughly 14 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The Seagulls have failed to score in their last three league games, despite having 51 shots and an xG value of 3.7 in these matches.
- Brighton’s Neal Maupay has scored four goals in his five league games against Leeds United, including the winner for the Seagulls in the reverse fixture at Elland Road this season.
- Danny Welbeck has scored four Premier League goals in 20 games for Brighton this season, more than he had across his previous two league campaigns combined (3 goals in 26 games). Welbeck last scored more in a top-flight campaign in 2017-18 (5).
- Following their goalless draw against Manchester United last time out, Leeds’ Illan Meslier became the youngest goalkeeper in Premier League history to record 10 clean sheets (21y 54d), overtaking Joe Hart’s record from 2008 (21y 134d).
CHELSEA V FULHAM
5.30pm It’s been another good week for Chelsea and they can turn the screw in the Top Four race here. Liverpool have to play Man United tomorrow and while West Ham meet Burnley on Monday, they could find themselves six points behind Chelsea by then with the pressure on. Chelsea recorded a massive 1-0 win over West Ham last weekend, and with Liverpool dropping further points that has left them in an excellent position for Champions League football next season. They might not even need it however, as they recorded a 1-1 draw away to Real Madrid midweek in the Semi-Final and have a good chance of reaching the final. They could end up playing Man City in the Final, a repeat of the FA Cup Semi-Final which they won recently too.
Fulham have put up a good fight to stay in the Premier League this season, but they got too far behind to stay up. They went on a good run but as I said it’s very difficult to keep going for so long – eventually you lose momentum or come up against some top sides. They did well to get back in touch but it was a tough ask to then go past and they just couldn’t. You could see by their xG figures that they have fallen out of form in recent week and even in their 1-1 draw with Arsenal they were out-played. They conceded an xG of 2.92. Chelsea could possibly have one eye on the Champions League game midweek with Real Madrid, but given the situation in the Top Four they can’t relax here and I feel this should be one way traffic. Chelsea at 1.51 are a very confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Chelsea to beat Fulham at 1.51 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQcheful
- Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 18 home games against Fulham in all competitions (W10 D8) since a 0-2 second tier defeat in October 1979.
- Fulham have won just one of their 29 Premier League matches against Chelsea (D10 L18), winning 1-0 in March 2006 at Craven Cottage.
o Of the 374 top-flight fixtures to have been played at least 50 times, Fulham have the lowest win rate against an opponent, managing just three wins in their 51 such meetings with Chelsea (6%).
- Fulham are winless in their last 23 Premier League London derby matches (D5 L18) since beating West Ham 2-1 in January 2014. However, the Cottagers have avoided defeat in their last three such fixtures on the road, drawing at Tottenham, Crystal Palace and Arsenal this term.
- In Premier League London derbies this season, Chelsea have won the most games (6), the most points (19), scored the most goals (15), and conceded the fewest (4). 75% of their four goals conceded were against Arsenal, with the Gunners the only side to beat them in a derby match this term.
- Chelsea have lost just one of their 14 Premier League games under Thomas Tuchel (W8 D5), having lost five of their last eight under Frank Lampard this season (W2 D1). However, the Blues have won just 43% of their seven home league games under the German so far (W3 D3 L1).
- Away from home, Fulham have dropped more points from winning positions than any other side in the Premier League this season (13). The Cottagers have opened the scoring in six of their last seven away league games (the other finishing 0-0), but have gone on to win just two of those six matches (D3 L1).
- 64% of Fulham’s Premier League goals this season have come away from home (16/25). Only Manchester City in 2006-07 (65.5%) have scored a higher share of their goals on the road in a single Premier League campaign (19/29).
- No player has scored more Premier League goals for Chelsea this season than Timo Werner (6). His winning goal against West Ham last time out was his first in eight league games, while he’s only scored in consecutive league games for the Blues once (in November).
- Chelsea keeper Édouard Mendy has kept 15 clean sheets in his 27 Premier League games this season, with only Ederson keeping more (17). Of all keepers to have started at least 25 games in Premier League history, Mendy is the only one to keep a clean sheet in more than half of them (56%).
EVERTON V ASTON VILLA
8pm Another interesting fixture, and although they start the day six points behind Chelsea and possibly nine points by kick off, Everton will still feel they are in the Top Four race. They have a game in hand, so why not aim high. They could get into a Europa League spot with that game in hand, plus Liverpool and Spurs have been so poor this season. Everton have had multiple chances to get into a great position this season and if truth be told they have blown them all. They have lost against sides like Burnley and dropped points against Crystal Palace, however in fairness to them they haven’t played badly. They should have beaten Burnley and Palace and they actually played very well against Spurs recently. Looking at the xG figures, they definitely come into the game in better form than Aston Villa.
Aston Villa are another side who come into today having had to play the likes of Man City, Liverpool and Spurs recently. They played well against West Brom last weekend, but they still conceded twice with an xG of 1.77 and that has to be a worry. That was the first time in a while they have produced an impressive xG figures going forward (3.17) as they have really dropped off the pace in their attack since the early part of the season. I’d have Everton just slightly odds on here and the 2.06 is worth backing for me. Again, you’d have to expect a very close game but for me Villa will give Everton chances and the home side come into the game in good form so they can get advantage.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Everton to beat Aston Villa at 2.06 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQeveavl
- Everton failed to win either Premier League game against Aston Villa last season (D1 L1), the first time that had happened since 2011-12. Everton last went three games without a win against the Villans between 2006 and 2012 (12 without a win).
- This will be the 205th top-flight meeting between Aston Villa and Everton, the most played fixture in England’s top division. Everton have won 76 of these meetings to the Villans’ 74 (54 draws).
- Aston Villa have won more games (19) and scored more goals (71) in the Premier League against Everton than they have vs any other side in the competition.
- This is the latest first meeting between two sides in an English top-flight season since 1987-88, when Luton and Nottingham Forest’s first game against each other was on May 13th.
- Everton have won just one of their last nine home league games (D3 L5), with that victory coming against Southampton in March (1-0).
- Everton have lost seven Premier League home games this season – the Toffees have only lost more at Goodison Park in a 38-game season in the competition in 1996-97 and 2015-16 (8, both times).
- Aston Villa lost just four of their first 14 Premier League games this season, finishing 2020 in fifth place in the table. Since the turn of the year, the Villans have lost nine times in 18 matches, with only Sheffield United and Southampton losing more in 2021 (12 each).
- Aston Villa have opened the scoring in each of their last three Premier League games but have failed to win any of them (D1 L2). In the first 14 games in which they scored first this season, the Villans only failed to win twice (W12 D1 L1).
- 12 of Everton’s 44 Premier League goals this season have been headers, the highest ratio in the division (27.3%). Meanwhile, Aston Villa have conceded the highest share of headed goals so far this season (24.3% – 9/37).
- No keeper has kept more away clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Aston Villa’s Emiliano Martínez (8). Only four keepers have ever kept more clean sheets on the road in their first season with a club in the competition – Shaka Hislop with West Ham in 1998-99 (9), Petr Cech with Chelsea in 2004-05 (11), Ederson with Man City in 2017-18 (9) and Liverpool’s Alisson in 2018-19 (9).