THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between BURNLEY v LEEDS, SOUTHAMPTON v FULHAM and BRIGHTON v WEST HAM all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BURNLEY V LEEDS
12.30pm All eyes will be on the FA Cup Final today between Chelsea and Leicester, but we also have a fascinating day ahead in the Premier League. We have three very competitive betting markets, and all football bets are 0% Commission on 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the day with Burnley taking on Leeds after both sides had impressive wins in last weekend’s fixtures. Leeds were more impressive than Burnley, beating Spurs 3-1, but Burnley had a good 2-0 win over Fulham on Monday night. Neither side have anything to play for here, and we will probably get an open game because of that. Leeds have played an open game all season, and while that has caused them problems at the back they have been one of the best sides going forward in fairness to them.
I feel the plan for the summer with Leeds will be bringing in new talent at the back, and possibly looking to change tactics a little. They don’t need to change anything going forward, but they can’t play such an open game if they want to finish in the European Spots as is their aim within three years. It’s not unreasonable to suggest Burnley have been playing their best football of the season recently. They are always a side who struggle to create chances, but they have had recent xG figures of 1.94, 2.24, 2.14, 1.07, 2.34 and 1.61. Given the chances Burnley have created lately, I’m not fully happy backing Leeds – I feel they will win, but the 2.28 isn’t a value price in my view. Over 2.5 goals is my best bet here at 1.7 – we could have an open game here and it’s always entertaining with Leeds so with Burnley in good form, I expect goals.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburlee
● Burnley have won each of their last three home league meetings with Leeds, more than they had in their previous 11 (W2 D2 L7). The Clarets have never won four league matches in a row against the Whites at Turf Moor.
● Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Burnley since the 2011-12 Championship campaign.
● In the top-flight, Leeds have won their last three meetings with Burnley in a run stretching back to 1975. They’ve never won four in a row against the Clarets in the top-flight.
● Burnley have won none of their last eight home Premier League matches (D5 L3) – it is their joint-longest winless home run in the English top-flight, also having runs of eight ending in 1890, 1924 and 1971.
● Leeds United are the only team in the Premier League this season without an away draw (W8 L9). Including games in the Championship, the Whites haven’t drawn any of their last 23 away league games, only having one longer run without a league draw on the road – 24 games between September 1926 and October 1927.
● Burnley have lost their last four home Premier League matches at Turf Moor in May, scoring first in three of those defeats, including their last home match against West Ham.
● Leeds haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last nine away Premier League games, with only Sheffield United on a longer current run (22 games). In all competitions, their last away clean sheet at Turf Moor against Burnley was in February 2005 in the Championship, with Neil Sullivan in goal for the Whites that day.
● Chris Wood is Burnley’s top scorer in the Premier League at Turf Moor, netting 23 goals in 60 games. Wood scored 44 goals in 88 appearances in all competitions for Leeds between 2015 and 2017 and netted in his only previous appearance against the Whites at Turf Moor, an 89th-minute penalty in a League Cup tie in September 2017.
● Leeds United’s Patrick Bamford has scored in three Premier League matches this season against sides he’s formerly played for in the competition (2x vs Crystal Palace, 1x vs Burnley) – the only two players to score in four such games in a season are Craig Bellamy in 2008-09 and Peter Crouch in 2013-14.
● Patrick Bamford netted a penalty for Leeds in their 1-0 win over Burnley at Elland Road in December. The last Whites player to score home and away against the Clarets in a league season was Peter Lorimer in the 1974-75 top-flight campaign.
SOUTHAMPTON V FULHAM
3pm Fulham were confirmed as relegated this past week, but to be honest the writing has been on the wall for a while. They lost momentum just after they got back within touching distance of Newcastle and Burnley, so while they are now confirmed as going down – I don’t feel we’ll see a different performance here. Some sides play terrible as they give up, and some sides free up and score as they play attacking football – I can see Fulham just staying the same so I don’t expect an unusual performance. Southampton got back to winning ways midweek against Crystal Palace, and that was a much needed win after a poor run. It was a pretty even game, and you could say Palace deserved a draw but you couldn’t begrudge Southampton a win after the recent run.
I know I’ve said this a few times recently, but you can really see how Fulham lost momentum when looking at their xG figures. They stopped creating a lot of chances and they have conceded too many. That’s the problem when you get so far behind – you end up bumping into the likes of Man City and then you’re straight back under pressure for points in the next game. I wouldn’t be a massive fan of Southampton, but they are playing better football coming into this game than Fulham. For me, Fulham have been a side to take on in recent weeks, and it was nice to land my first recommended Max Lay on them against Burnley – I’m happy to keep stakes limited, but Southampton are worth backing at 2.08.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Southampton to beat Fulham at 2.08 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouful
● Southampton have lost just one of their last eight Premier League matches against Fulham (W3 D4), a 3-2 defeat in November 2018 in Mark Hughes’ penultimate league game in charge of the Saints.
● Fulham have only managed one win in 30 league visits to Southampton (D8 L21), a 2-1 win in the second tier back in October 1935 with goals from Jack Finch and Bert Worsley. They are winless in nine top-flight visits to Saints (D4 L5).
● There has only been one away win in 15 Premier League meetings between Southampton and Fulham, with Saints winning 3-0 at Craven Cottage under Mauricio Pochettino back in February 2014. Current Fulham manager Scott Parker started for the Cottagers in the match.
● Southampton have kept a clean sheet in six of their last seven meetings with Fulham in all competitions, with the exception being a 3-2 defeat in November 2018. Saints had kept just one clean sheet in 15 meetings with the Cottagers prior to this run.
● Fulham’s defeat at home to Burnley last time out confirmed their relegation from the Premier League. On the previous two occasions the Cottagers have been relegated from the competition, they’ve avoided defeat in their very next game after their relegation was confirmed, drawing 2-2 with Crystal Palace in 2013-14 and beating Everton 2-0 in 2018-19.
● Southampton have lost just three of their last 43 home Premier League matches against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W29 D11), winning each of their last three such games at St. Mary’s.
● Only Sheffield United (20) have failed to score in more different Premier League games than Fulham (17) this season. However, 11 of Fulham’s 17 blanks have come in home games.
● Fulham have scored first in nine away Premier League matches this season, their most ever in a single Premier League season. However, the Cottagers have gone on to win just 33% of those matches (W3 D5 L1).
● All three of Aleksandar Mitrovic’s Premier League goals for Fulham this season have come away from home. However, the Serbian has scored in just two of his 27 league appearances this term (2 vs Leeds, 1 vs Aston Villa), while the Cottagers have won just one of the 13 games in which he’s started in 2020-21.
● Bobby De Cordova-Reid is Fulham’s highest scorer in the Premier League this season with five goals, though he hasn’t scored in any of his last 12 appearances. He’s the lowest outright top scorer for a club in the Premier League this season.
BRIGHTON V WEST HAM
8pm We finish the day with a very high quality fixture as Brighton host West Ham. It hasn’t been a good few weeks for West Ham as they have lost three of their last four games. That has effectively dropped them out of the Top Four race – a win here would still see them three points behind Chelsea, and now they have Liverpool in between too. The Europa League would still be a huge achievement, but they will be kicking themselves after losses to Newcastle and Everton. Remarkably Brighton start the weekend in 17th position when the xG table puts them in 5th – ahead of West Ham! It goes without saying Brighton have been unlucky this season, but you have to finish your chances – they really need to buy a high quality striker in the summer.
I was very surprised to see Brighton lose to Wolves last weekend, and even more surprised by the performance. They only created an xG of 0.37, and I felt they would have followed up their impressive win over Leeds. West Ham have been excellent this season, but a few mistakes have crept into their game in recent weeks. They made some unforgivable errors against Newcastle, and perhaps the pressure of the Top Four changed their mindset. West Ham have been one of my favourite teams to back this season, but the value is with Brighton here. They were very poor against Wolves, but if you forget that performance the 3.1 looks too big here. They have created a lot of chances this season, and West Ham are under pressure in the race for Europe, Brighton can take advantage of any mistakes and outscore the Hammers.
The Striker Says:
One point win Brighton to beat West Ham at 3.1 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQbhawhu
● Brighton have never failed to score in their seven Premier League meetings with West Ham. The last four between the sides have ended level, while the Seagulls won each of the first three.
● West Ham have faced Brighton more often (7) without ever winning than they have any other opponent in the Premier League (D4 L3).
● Brighton and Hove Albion have won three of their last seven home Premier League games (D2 L2), one more than in their previous 23 matches at the Amex (W2 D11 L10).
● West Ham United have only picked up two wins in 11 Premier League matches on Saturdays this season (D2 L7), a win ratio of just 18%. In only two previous league seasons have they had a lower win percentage in Saturday matches – 15% in 2010-11 and 16% in 1970-71.
● Brighton have kept six clean sheets in their nine home Premier League matches in 2021, only one fewer than they managed in their previous two calendar years combined (7 – 5 in 2019, 2 in 2020).
● West Ham have won eight away Premier League matches this season, only winning more in two top-flight seasons: 10 in 1926-27 (finished 6th) and nine in 1985-86 (finished 3rd).
● Brighton have been shown six red cards in the Premier League this season, their most in a single league campaign since 2011-12 (8). Last time out against Wolves, they had two players sent off in a league match (Dunk and Maupay) for the first time since December 2011 vs Burnley.
● Brighton have dropped 23 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season and have lost five matches after taking the lead – in their first three seasons in the competition, the Seagulls only lost six such matches.
● Brighton’s Pascal Groß has five Premier League assists in 17 games in 2021, three more than he managed in 25 appearances in 2020. The German has also created 44 chances this calendar year, 20 more than any other Brighton player and seven more than he managed in 2020.
● West Ham striker Michail Antonio has been directly involved in 14 goals in his last 13 away Premier League starts (11 goals, 3 assists). Antonio has scored 24 away goals for the Hammers in the Premier League, five more than any other player for the club.