THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games – all previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action starts at 12.30pm with Chelsea hosting Crystal Palace.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
CHELSEA V CRYSTAL PALACE
12.30pm We have another excellent day ahead in the Premier League, and all sports are 0% Commission on BETDAQ so we can enjoy extra value today! We kick off the day with Chelsea hosting Crystal Palace after a surprise 3-3 draw with West Brom last weekend. They went 3-0 down but in fairness to them they battled back to 3-3 in the second half, but they made some terrible errors at the back in the first half. Palace will hope that they see the same mistakes from Chelsea today!
Palace did well to win their opening two games but Everton stopped them in their tracks last weekend with an impressive 2-1 win. Palace had issues scoring goals last season, but they have managed to score six goals in their opening three games. I think over 2.5 goals is fairly priced at 1.61, although Chelsea are vulnerable at the back I don’t think 1.61 offers value. I’m happy to have a small bet on Chelsea at 1.46 to start the day as they should out score this Palace side.
The Striker Says:
One point win Chelsea to beat Crystal Palace at 1.46 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchecrl
- Chelsea have won each of their last five Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace; they’ve never previously won six league games in a row against the Eagles.
- Crystal Palace have won just two of their 11 Premier League away games against Chelsea (D1 L8), with those victories coming in consecutive visits in August 2015 and April 2017.
- None of the last 18 Premier League meetings between Chelsea and Crystal Palace have finished level, with the Blues winning 14 to Palace’s four. Only Newcastle v Tottenham (21 between 1999-2010) and Chelsea v Sunderland (19 between 2002-2014) have seen longer runs without a draw in the competition.
- Chelsea have the best win rate in Premier League London derbies, with the Blues winning 132 of their 256 such games (51.6%). Meanwhile, only Fulham (19.4%) have a lower such win rate than Crystal Palace (23.1% – 24/104).
- Chelsea haven’t lost their opening two home league matches in a season since the 1978-79 campaign, when the Blues went on to be relegated from the top-flight.
- Crystal Palace are looking to win their opening two away Premier League matches of a season for the third time (also 1997-98 and 2015-16) and could become only the second team to win at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford in consecutive away Premier League games, after Sunderland in April/May 2014.
- Chelsea have conceded at least three goals in four of their last 10 Premier League games, as many times as they had in their previous 56 matches in the competition.
- Crystal Palace boss Roy Hodgson has lost his last six Premier League matches against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, since winning his very first such encounter with Blackburn in April 1998 (1-0).
- Mason Mount has been involved in 15 of Chelsea’s 37 shots in the Premier League so far this season (9 shots, 6 chances created), more than any other player at the club. Indeed, the English midfielder had a hand in half of their 22 efforts last time out against West Brom (7 shots, 4 chances created).
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has been involved in six goals in his 12 Premier League games against Chelsea (3 goals, 3 assists) – against no side has he had a hand in more goals in the competition (also 6 vs Leicester).
EVERTON V BRIGHTON
3pm Everton have started their season on fire with six wins on the bounce. Of course teams have had a lot of Carabao Cup action, but they have been very impressive in their opening three Premier League games. Their xG numbers are very impressive too – they created an xG of 2.38 when beating Crystal Palace and 3.77 when hammering West Brom 5-2. Brighton have also been busy, but their Carabao Cup run was ended by Man United on Wednesday with a 3-0 loss.
I have to say I’m very surprised to see Everton as big as 1.81 here. Brighton have done well at the start of the season, they should have got something from the Premier League class with United and were unlucky to concede three goals to Chelsea. All that aside, Everton are still too big here at 1.81 for me. They aren’t quite a max bet because Brighton have been playing some decent football, but Everton have been excellent and I’d have them closer to 1.65.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Everton to beat Brighton at 1.81 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevebha
- Everton have won all three of their Premier League home meetings with Brighton, scoring six goals and conceding just one.
- Brighton have never won away at Everton in all competitions, drawing two and losing six of their eight visits.
- The home side has won each of the last five Premier League meetings between Everton (3) and Brighton (2), with the other ending 1-1 in October 2017.
- Everton are looking to win each of their opening four games to a top-flight season for the first time since 1969-70, when they went on to win the title.
- Brighton are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League away games (W3 D5). The Seagulls have won three of their last four on the road, as many as they had in their previous 27 (W3 D9 L15).
- Brighton are averaging 14.7 shots-per-game in the league this season, their highest rate in any of their Premier League campaigns. The Seagulls expected goals (xG) rate is also the highest it’s been for them in the competition, with an xG value of 1.8 per game so far.
- Brighton hit the woodwork five times in their 2-3 defeat to Manchester United last time out, the most a team has done so in a single Premier League match since these records are available (2003-04).
- Everton have had 59 10+ pass sequences in open play in the Premier League this season, (19.7 per game); only Liverpool have had more (60). Last season, they averaged just 7.7 per game, ranking 11th overall in the division.
- This will be Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti’s 100th Premier League game in charge (W59 D19 L21). Only five managers have won more of their first 100 in the competition than the Italian – José Mourinho (73), Pep Guardiola (73), Manuel Pellegrini (65), Alex Ferguson (62) and Roberto Mancini (62).
- Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in each of his three Premier League games this season, netting five goals in total. The last English player to score in four consecutive league games for the Toffees was Francis Jeffers in September 2000.
LEEDS V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm It’s early in the season, but the pressure is already on Man City. A 5-2 loss against Leicester last weekend has really highlighted that they are still short at the back and they didn’t create much going forward either. Leicester won the game 3.02 to 1.46 on xG numbers too, and City are now splashing the cash on more defenders! Leeds will fancy their chances of causing another upset – especially considering they have scored so many times in their opening games.
Leeds fans will be very happy with their start to the season, but their under-lining numbers could be better. They simply haven’t created the chances to reflect their goals, and they have also been conceding chances too. This might be where reality hits. City will certainly want to bounce back quickly, but I’m not happy to back them at 1.38 after their issues at the back. I expected goals here, and while the odds aren’t offering a huge amount of value, over 2.5 goals at 1.98 is worth a small investment. Especially considering all bets are 0% commission on BETDAQ.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 3.5 goals at 1.98 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleemci
- Leeds have won three of their last five Premier League meetings with Manchester City (D1 L1), including the last two at Elland Road. This is their first such clash since March 2004 when Leeds won 2-1.
- This is the first meeting in any competition between Leeds and Man City since February 2013, with the Citizens winning 4-0 in an FA Cup tie.
- Manchester City have lost just one of their last 31 Premier League games against promoted sides (W25 D5), with that defeat coming at Norwich last season, who were promoted as Championship winners the previous year.
- Leeds United are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since January 2003.
- Manchester City lost 2-5 against Leicester last time out, shipping as many goals in that defeat as they had in their previous 11 league games combined. They’ve not lost back-to-back Premier League games since December 2018.
- 58% of Leeds’ shots in the Premier League this season have been on target (19/33) – only Leicester (59%) have a higher such ratio so far in the competition this term.
- This will be the fourth meeting in all competitions between Leeds boss Marcelo Bielsa and Man City’s Pep Guardiola, with the other three all coming in the 2011-12 season between Guardiola’s Barcelona and Bielsa’s Athletic Bilbao. Guardiola remained unbeaten in all three meetings (W2 D1).
- Leeds United’s Pablo Hernández scored three league goals against Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona for Valencia between 2009 and 2011, with only Diego Forlán (4) and Jamie Vardy (8) scoring more top-flight goals against teams managed by Guardiola in his career.
- Patrick Bamford has scored in each of his three Premier League appearances so far this season; the last Leeds player to score in four consecutive league games was Ezgjan Alioski in November 2017, while in the top-flight it was Mark Viduka in April 2004.
- Kalvin Phillips has created nine goalscoring opportunities in the Premier League this season, more than any other Leeds player. Indeed, in each of Leeds’ three matches so far, Phillips has either had the most or the joint-most chances created for the club.
NEWCASTLE V BURNLEY
8pm This is a very interesting game to finish the day! xG said that Newcastle were one of the worst teams in the Premier League last season, and to be honest not much has changed at the start of this season but they keep getting the results! Spurs beat them 3.49 to 1.07 on xG last weekend, and 0.8 of that was the farcical penalty. Brighton beat them easily 3-0 in their last home game. Newcastle just concede a lot of chances, but it’s up to the opposition to take their chances!
Burnley come here off the back of two losses, but they have been very close games. Leicester beat them 4-2 but xG said it was a very even game, and then Southampton grinded out a 1-0 win against them but again xG had it very close at 0.49 to 0.55. It’s usually Burnley that grind out a win in those close games! I’m happy to lay Newcastle here at 2.58 based on the under-lining numbers – Burnley have been performing OK and Newcastle are still very poor at the back. I feel the Newcastle price should be a lot closer to the Burnley price.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Burnley at 2.58 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewbrn
- Newcastle are unbeaten in their last seven home league games against Burnley (W3 D4), including all four meetings in the Premier League (W1 D3). Burnley’s last league win at Newcastle was back in April 1976 (1-0).
- Burnley have kept a clean sheet in each of their last two Premier League meetings with Newcastle, as many as they had in their previous 14 top-flight matches against the Magpies.
- 50% of the eight Premier League meetings between Newcastle and Burnley have ended level, with each side winning two games apiece.
- Newcastle have won just one of their last eight home league games (D4 L3), losing each of their last three in a row conceding three goals each time. Only Crystal Palace (April 1998) and Fulham (March 2014) have ever lost four consecutive Premier League home games while conceding 3+ goals each time.
- Newcastle have scored with all three of their shots on target so far in the Premier League this season, netting with both against West Ham on MD1, one against Spurs last time out, and failing to register one against Brighton in the other.
- Burnley haven’t begun a league campaign with three straight defeats since 2003-04 in the second tier, while the last time they did so in the top-flight was in 1927-28.
- Burnley have scored in each of their last five away Premier League games (W3 D1 L1), last having a longer run of finding the net on the road between April-October 2017 (7 games).
- Only goalless Sheffield United have a lower shot conversion rate than Burnley in the Premier League this season, with the Clarets netting just 7.7% of their attempts so far (2/26).
- Newcastle’s Karl Darlow has made more saves than any other goalkeeper in the Premier League so far this season (18). The Englishman made 11 saves alone in Newcastle’s 1-1 draw with Tottenham last time out.
- Newcastle’s Jeff Hendrick scored nine goals in 122 Premier League appearances for Burnley, and he could become just the third player to score for and against the Clarets in the competition after Andre Gray and Danny Ings.
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