THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s resumption of the Premier League with extended stats and recommended bets. The action starts at 12.30pm with the Merseyside Derby – Everton v Liverpool at Goodison.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
EVERTON V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm After a dramatic International break, the Premier League returns on Saturday with a cracker! The Merseyside Derby starts the action this weekend, and with all sports 0% Commission on BETDAQ today it’s bound to be a very busy day for the BETDAQ Betting Exchange. ! It feels like so long ago that Aston Villa beat Liverpool 7-2, it one of the most remarkable days in Premier League history. We have had a huge amount of goals already this season, and while it’s early days to make an assessment, perhaps the behind closed doors element is helping us see more goals. Teams are more open and relaxed, and we’re seeing better football.
Everton have started the season in superb form with four wins from four games, and start the weekend on top of the table. Everton’s uptick in form, along with a high profile manager and signings, make this the most interesting Merseyside Derby for years. They haven’t won in 19 Premier League meetings with Liverpool, and they’ll probably feel that this is their best chance for years. I have to say, Liverpool look a little short for me at 1.91 – I take on board that they have been excellent for a while now, but this Everton side has impressed me at the start of the season and I wouldn’t have Liverpool odds on – I’m happy to lay the 1.91.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Everton at 1.91 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQevrliv
- Everton are winless in 19 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D11 L8), since a 2-0 win in October 2010.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 22 meetings with Everton in all competitions – against no side have they ever had a longer run without defeat in their history (also 22 vs Aston Villa between 1981-1992).
- Seven of the last eight Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park have finished level, with Liverpool winning the other 1-0 in December 2016.
- The last three Premier League meetings between Everton and Liverpool at Goodison Park have finished 0-0 – no specific fixture in English top-flight history has ever finished goalless in four consecutive matches before.
- This is the first top-flight Merseyside derby with Everton starting the day top of the table since September 1989, when Liverpool won 3-1 at Goodison Park thanks to goals from Ian Rush (2) and John Barnes.
- Everton are looking to win their opening five league games for the first time since the 1938-39 campaign – their fifth game that season was a 2-1 victory against the reigning top-flight champions (Arsenal).
- Liverpool have conceded 11 goals in their four Premier League games this season, including seven at Aston Villa last time out. Last season, it took the Reds 13 games to concede 11 goals.
- Liverpool have lost four of their last eight away Premier League games (W3 D1), as many as they had in their previous 46 on the road in the competition (W33 D9 L4). The Reds haven’t lost consecutive Premier League games since September 2015 under Brendan Rodgers.
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored nine goals in six appearances for Everton in all competitions this season, making him the top scorer for a player in the top five European leagues so far this term. He could become the first player to score in each of Everton’s first five league games in a season since Tommy Lawton in 1938-39.
- Mohamed Salah has scored 99 goals in 158 games for Liverpool in all competitions. His next goal will see him become the 17th different player to net 100 goals for the Reds, while he would be the third fastest to do so after Roger Hunt (144 games) and Jack Parkinson (153 games).
- This game marks five years to the day since Jürgen Klopp took charge of his first ever Liverpool game (0-0 vs Tottenham). The German has faced Everton without defeat more often than any other side in all competitions in his tenure with the Reds (11 – W7 D4).
CHELSEA V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm After a slow start to the season, Southampton turned things around with back-to-back wins over Burnley and West Brom. They now have their hands full with this Chelsea side, but they did win this fixture 2-0 on their last visit here. Southampton have caught my eye as their under-lining numbers are pretty good. They look rock solid at the back, and have actually faced the least amount of shots on average per game. Although it’s only early in the season! Based on what I’ve seen thus far from Chelsea, I don’t think they have changed much from last season. They still have issues at the back.
Chelsea are exciting going forward, and will hammer teams throughout the season, as we seen with their 4-0 win over Crystal Palace prior to the International break. However, I also think we’ll see a lot of results like West Brom too; with terrible mistakes at the back. With Southampton showing signs that they are playing good football and impressing at the back, I think they’ll give Chelsea a tricky afternoon. Chelsea look much too short for me at 1.54, and I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Southampton at 1.54 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchesth
- Chelsea have won seven of their last nine Premier League meetings with Southampton (D1 L1), though they did lose this exact fixture 0-2 last season.
- Following their 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge last season, Southampton are looking to pick up back-to-back away league victories against Chelsea for the first time since March 1985.
- Chelsea have won seven of their last eight Premier League home games (L1), netting 18 goals, conceding four and keeping five clean sheets in that run.
- Since the start of last season, no side has conceded fewer home Premier League goals than Chelsea (18, excluding the promoted clubs).
- Southampton are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since a run of four in May 2016, while Saints last won three in a row without conceding in the competition in January 2016.
- Southampton have faced just over seven shots per Premier League game so far this season (29 in four games), fewer than any other side in 2020-21. However, only West Ham (1.8) have faced fewer shots on target per game so far this term than Chelsea (3).
- Chelsea have made a league-high 81 10+ open play pass sequences in the Premier League this season – however, Southampton have allowed their opponents to make just 11 such sequences this term, fewer than any other side.
- Chelsea’s Olivier Giroud has had a hand in five goals in his last four Premier League games against Southampton (4 goals, 1 assist), while only against Aston Villa and Newcastle (8 each) has he scored more Premier League goals than he has versus Saints (7). His last four goals against them have been as a substitute – only Julian Joachim against Derby (5) has scored more goals against a specific opponent from the bench in the competition.
- Jorginho has netted three goals in his three Premier League games for Chelsea this season (all from the penalty spot), just one fewer than he scored in 31 appearances last term.
- Edouard Mendy kept a clean sheet on his Premier League debut for Chelsea against Crystal Palace last time out – the last keeper to keep a clean sheet on their first two league starts for the Blues was Petr Cech in August 2004.
MANCHESTER CITY V ARSENAL
5.30pm With the Merseyside Derby earlier in the day and this fixture, the Premier League is certainly back with a bang! It’s a cracking day to have 0% Commission too. Arsenal shocked Manchester City only a few months ago in the FA Cup semi-final; however City dominated the game and were very unlucky to lose. In the Premier League, City have brushed aside Arsenal with ease, winning the last two fixtures 3-0. You have to go back to 2015 to find Arsenal’s last league win away from home here, and although they started the season well the signs are creeping in that they haven’t changed.
They lost 2.32 to 1.33 on xG when beating West Ham, and didn’t create much at home to Sheffield United before the International break. Man City have their own issues and they are mainly at the back. Now that the transfer window is closed, Guardiola seems to be happy but we’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out. For today, even allowing for City’s problems at the back, they are far too big at 1.49 here. They have been closer to 1.39 against Arsenal in recent years and I don’t think Arsenal have improved enough to warrant that price change.
The Striker Says:
Four point win Manchester City to beat Arsenal at 1.49 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmncars
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League meetings with Arsenal (W7 D2), since a 1-2 loss in December 2015. They’ve scored at least twice in all nine of these games.
- Arsenal have lost their last six Premier League meetings with Manchester City, shipping three goals in five of those six games. They last had a longer losing run against an opponent in league competition versus Ipswich between 1974-1977 (7).
- Arsenal have won just one of their last nine away league games against Man City (D2 L6), winning 2-0 in January 2015. They’ve lost all four at the Etihad against Pep Guardiola.
- This is the third of their four Premier League games this season that Manchester City are starting the day in the bottom half of the table – as many as in their previous 375 matches in the competition.
- Manchester City have won just four points from their three league games this season, their lowest total at this stage since 2010-11. Meanwhile, only twice in their league history have the Citizens lost both of their opening two home games in a season – 1930-31 and 1953-54.
- Manchester City are winless in their last two Premier League games, last going three without a win in the competition back in April 2017 (4). The third game in that run was a 2-2 draw with Arsenal.
- Arsenal have won eight of their last 12 Premier League games (D1 L3), more than they had in their previous 28 in the competition (W7 D13 L8). Indeed, since their loss to Brighton in June, no side has picked up more Premier League points than the Gunners (25).
- Arsenal have had 77 10+ open play pass sequences in the Premier League this season, with only Chelsea having more (81). Indeed, since Mikel Arteta took over at the club, the Gunners have scored more goals following a sequence of 10 or more passes than any other side in the division (11).
- Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in seven goals in his last eight Premier League starts against Arsenal (5 goals, 2 assists). The Belgian has scored more Premier League goals against the Gunners than he has versus any other side (5).
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored both goals in Arsenal’s 2-0 win over Man City in the FA Cup semi-final last season. However, he’s played more Premier League minutes without scoring against Man City than he has any other opponent (450), including missing a penalty in March 2018.
NEWCASTLE V MANCHESTER UNITED
8pm What a massive fixture for Manchester United. Newcastle have started the season like the finished last season; not playing good football and getting results and collecting points. They have been exceptionally lucky; that penalty against Spurs was a farce. But we can say the same about Manchester United too, with their penalty against Brighton in the 100th minute. There’s no doubt that the pressure is on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and it’s hard to know whether he was happy or sad the International break came after the embarrassing 6-1 loss to Spurs at Old Trafford. Another quick loss or two together would be very interesting to see what the board do!
Newcastle are a poor side. They would have got relegated last season if results went in line with xG, and they have been lucky with their results at the start of the season. That being said, United have been very poor this season. They have created very little and bar a 100th minute penalty against Brighton they would have had a dire start to the season. They’ve actually lost their three games on xG, and their performance at home to Palace was woeful too. I’m not a fan of Newcastle but I have to lay United here at 1.71 as that looks exceptionally short based on their performances this season.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Newcastle at 1.71 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewutd
- Newcastle have won two of their last three Premier League home games against Man Utd (L1), more than they had in their previous 13 against them at St James’ Park (W1 D3 L9).
- Manchester United lost this exact fixture 0-1 last season – they’ve not lost back-to-back away league games against Newcastle since December 1987.
- This is the first time Newcastle are facing Manchester United in a Premier League game while above them in the table since December 2013, when they won 1-0 at Old Trafford.
- Newcastle have had fewer shots on target than any other side in the Premier League this season (8). However, they’ve netted six goals, meaning they’ve scored with a league-high 75% of their attempts on target so far this term.
- Manchester United have shipped 11 Premier League goals so far this season, with only West Bromwich Albion (13) conceding more. It’s the second most the Red Devils have ever conceded three games into a league season, after 1930-31 (13).
- After a 14-game unbeaten run to finish the 2019-20 season, Man Utd have lost two of their three Premier League games so far this season. They’ve not lost as many as three of their opening four league games in a campaign since 1986-87.
- Away from home, Manchester United have won their last five Premier League matches, scoring at least twice each time. The Red Devils have never won six consecutive top-flight away matches while scoring more than once in each game.
- 17% of Manchester United’s Premier League goals since the start of last season have come from the penalty spot (12/71), the highest ratio among all clubs to have played in both campaigns.
- Callum Wilson has scored four goals in his first four Premier League games for Newcastle – the only player to score as many as five in their first five for the club was Loïc Rémy back in October 2013.
- New Man Utd signing Edinson Cavani could make his Premier League debut in this match – he’ll be looking to become the second oldest ever debutant goalscorer in the competition (33y 246d on the day of the game), after Zlatan Ibrahimovic in August 2016, also for Manchester United (34y 316d).
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