SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games including the highlight match LIVERPOOL v ARSENAL at 5.30pm. All previews include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
LEICESTER V CHELSEA
12.30pm The Premier League is back with a bang on Saturday after the International Break! We have a bumper day ahead with eight fixtures, and all football bets are 0% Commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the day with a cracker as Leicester host the league leaders Chelsea. Although Chelsea are three points clear of Manchester City at the top of the table, they did suffer a setback going into the International Break as they had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Burnley. They absolutely bossed the game however with an xG of 3.22 so I wouldn’t be worried if I was a Chelsea fan. The thing about Chelsea this season is they have come up short against the top sides, but they have really put the smaller sides to the sword. The question here is; how will they get on with an up-and-down Leicester side? After putting a few wins together, Leicester went into the International Break without a win in three.
I wouldn’t mind the 2-0 loss to Arsenal here as Leicester were exceptionally unlucky to lose – they finished the game with an xG of 2.10. I would be a little more worried about the 1-1 draw with Leeds in their last game, they conceded an xG of 1.79 too. In the main, Leicester have given away too many chances this season and that’s why they aren’t in the top half of the table. I feel we’ll get a very entertaining game here, but Chelsea are simply too big at 1.84. With the volume of chances Chelsea are creating this season, it’s hard to see how Leicester stop them. Leicester have been pretty average too – their position in 12th reflects that – and Chelsea are a Max Bet for me to welcome back the Premier League!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Chelsea to beat Leicester at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeiche
● Leicester City are unbeaten in their last three home Premier League matches against Chelsea (W1 D2) last having a longer unbeaten run on home soil against the Blues in the top-flight between February 1985 and May 1995 at Filbert Street (four draws).
● Chelsea have only lost three of their last 18 Premier League games against Leicester (W10 D5), though one of those was at the King Power last season, a 2-0 defeat in Frank Lampard’s last league game in charge in January.
● In all competitions, Leicester have won two matches against Chelsea in 2021, winning in the Premier League in January and the FA Cup final in May. In the last 10 years, only one team has beaten the Blues three times in a single calendar year (Manchester United in 2019).
● Leicester City have lost 14 of their last 16 Premier League games against the league leaders (D2), with their last such victory coming in January 1998 – a 1-0 win against Man Utd at Old Trafford thanks to a Tony Cottee strike.
● Leicester have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Premier League games, a 1-0 win over Wolves on the opening weekend. They last had a longer run without a shutout than their current run of 10 between October and December 2016 (11 games).
● Chelsea have won their last three Premier League away games by an aggregate score of 7-0. They’ve not won four in a row on the road without conceding since December 2008 (a run of six under Felipe Scolari).
● Leicester have had more shots from high turnovers than any other side in the Premier League this season (20). However, the Foxes have also faced more such efforts than any other side (23), while no side has faced fewer attempts from high turnovers than Chelsea (7).
● No side have scored more headed goals in the Premier League this season than Chelsea (4), while no side have conceded more via headers than Leicester this term (4).
● Chelsea’s Romelu Lukaku has scored five goals in eight Premier League appearances against teams managed by Brendan Rodgers (five against Rodgers’ Liverpool, including the last goal scored against his Liverpool side in October 2015 for Everton). No player has netted more Premier League goals against teams managed by the Northern Irishman (Harry Kane also on five).
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy is just two goals away from equalling Ian Wright’s Premier League record of 93 goals scored after turning 30. However, Vardy has only scored in one of his nine Premier League games against sides at the top of the table, doing so in a 5-1 defeat at Manchester City in February 2018.
ASTON VILLA V BRIGHTON
3pm With a bumper day of eight Premier League fixtures, we’re going to be very busy at 3pm! Six games take place on Saturday afternoon, and we start with Aston Villa hosting Brighton. I have to say, this Saturday is absolutely fascinating from a betting point of view. We have no real heavy favourites, with the shortest price being Liverpool later this evening at around 1.52. This is the first of a few open markets, and I feel the odds are all wrong here. We have had some very good results taking on Aston Villa already this season, and I’m happy to take them on again here at 2.6. I much prefer the Aston Villa lay compared to the Brighton won as it’s nice to have the draw on our side here in what should be a very close and hard fought game.
Brighton have been playing some nice football for a number of seasons now, but they have finally started to get results this season. They are going to start the day in 7th, and although they are probably a little lucky to be that high, you can’t knock them after all the bad luck they had last season. They were nearly a Top Four side on xG! It was disappointing they couldn’t beat Newcastle before the International Break, but they created a bigger xG and only conceded 0.38. They were also unfortunate not to beat Arsenal too recently. My main reason for taking on Aston Villa is they look bang average without Jack Grealish. I know they were always going to struggle without him, but when he was injured last season they created very little and went on a losing run. They come into this fixture off the back of five losses, and again they are creating very little. Brighton can get a result here.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Brighton at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAstbri
● Since winning their first Premier League game against Brighton in October 2019, Aston Villa are winless in three against the Seagulls (D2 L1) and haven’t led for a single minute in any of those games.
● In all competitions, Brighton have only won one of their last 12 matches against Aston Villa (D5 L6), a 2-1 away win last season in the Premier League, their first ever away win over Villa.
● Seven of the eight Premier League goals scored in this fixture have been scored by Englishmen (87.5%), the highest percentage of English scorers in any current Premier League fixture to have seen at least five goals in the competition. The exception was a goal from the Belgian Leandro Trossard in January 2020.
● Aston Villa have lost each of their last five Premier League games, their longest losing run since a streak of 11 in the 2015-16 campaign. Overall, it’s Aston Villa’s sixth run of at least five consecutive defeats in the Premier League, with only four sides having more (Bolton, Crystal Palace, Fulham and Southampton – all 7).
● Brighton are winless in six Premier League games, though five of these have ended level (L1). Away from home, the Seagulls are one of three teams still unbeaten in the Premier League this term (W2 D3), along with Chelsea and West Ham United.
● Aston Villa have had more goalless draws than any other side in Premier League history (104). Meanwhile, no side has had a higher share of their Premier League games finish 0-0 than Brighton (12% – 19/163).
● Steven Gerrard will be the 13th different permanent manager to take charge of Aston Villa in the Premier League. Only two of the previous 12 have won their first such game for the club (D6 L4), with John Gregory beating Liverpool (Feb 1998) and Gérard Houllier beating Wolves (Sep 2010).
● Last season, Aston Villa keeper Emiliano Martínez had the best save % of any goalkeeper to play in at least half of his team’s games (75.4%). This season, the Argentine has the third worst such record in the competition (63.8%).
● Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored five Premier League goals against Aston Villa, his most against any opponent. He has scored in each of his last four league starts against Villa, with his last four such goals against them all coming at Villa Park.
● Brighton’s Leandro Trossard is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time. The Belgian has already netted as many away league goals this season (2) as he did in his first two Premier League campaigns combined.
BURNLEY V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We have another very open market here, with both sides priced not too far away from each other. If this fixture took place a couple of weeks ago, I would have called it a relegation six pointer but Crystal Palace are going to start the day just inside the top ten! Palace have shot up the table with two wins over Man City and Wolves – they definitely robe their luck away to Man City and benefited from City having a man sent off, but to their create they kept City down to an xG of 0.79 and not many sides will be able to do that this season. Their performance before the International Break against Wolves was very impressive however, and if they can repeat that they will win here. Burnley have been playing some decent football at times this season, and it was nice to see them put together two decent results before the International Break.
The reality for Burnley however is that they are still in the relegation zone, and although they are getting closer to Watford and Aston Villa now, they really need to pick up points in games like this to stay up. With Newcastle likely to spend big in the January transfer window, that’s going to put a lot of pressure on the sides around them and that definitely includes Burnley. Although it’s not surprising to see that we have an open market here, I would have Crystal Palace a little shorter than 2.72. I’m not a huge fan of Palace I must say, but this seems an ideal time to back them – they put together some decent performances and although Burnley have been creating more chances, they have also been conceding more and Palace can grind out a win here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Crystal Palace to beat Burnley at 2.72 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBurcry
● Burnley have won their last three Premier League games against Crystal Palace, keeping a clean sheet in each. The Clarets have only won four league games in a row against the Eagles once, winning their first four against them between 1969 and 1971.
● None of the eight top-flight meetings between Burnley and Crystal at Turf Moor have ended as a draw – the Clarets have won five and Palace three, with last season ending 1-0 to Burnley thanks to a Chris Wood goal.
● The team scoring first has gone on to win each of the last 10 Premier League meetings between Burnley and Crystal Palace, since the Clarets went 2-0 ahead before losing 3-2 in January 2015.
● Burnley’s win against Brentford in their last home league match ended the Clarets’ 14-game winless run at Turf Moor in the Premier League. They last won back-to-back home league games in December 2020.
● Burnley have won more points (5) and scored more goals (6) in their last three Premier League games than they had in their previous 11 combined (3 points, 5 goals).
● Crystal Palace are looking to win three consecutive league games for the first time since a run of four between February and June 2020. Meanwhile, the Eagles are unbeaten in six Premier League games (W2 D4), their longest run without defeat since August 2018 (7 games).
● Burnley have had fewer open play sequences of 10+ passes than any other Premier League side this season (2.7 per game). Meanwhile, Crystal Palace are averaging 10.4 such sequences per game this term, almost double the amount they managed last season (5.6).
● Burnley striker Chris Wood has made more targeted runs into the box (an off the ball run where a teammate tries to find him with a pass) than any other player in the Premier League this season (41).
● Of the 22 players to have scored at least four Premier League goals this season, Burnley’s Maxwel Cornet has the best minutes-per-goal ratio in the competition so far (one goal every 92 minutes).
● Connor Gallagher has been involved in six Premier League goals in 10 games for Crystal Palace this season (4 goals, 2 assists), two more than he was in 30 games for West Brom last season (2 goals, 2 assists). He’s looking to become the first Englishman to score in three consecutive league games for the Eagles since Glenn Murray in April 2015.
NEWCASTLE V BRENTFORD
3pm What a fascinating game. We have another open market here, with both sides priced very close together. Newcastle are trading 2.74 and Brentford are 2.8 at the time of writing. We could easily see those odds switch around before kick-off. Much has been made of the takeover at Newcastle, and while it definitely gave the fans a boost it just hasn’t been reflected on the pitch yet. They have still yet to win over the new owners, and although they have brought in a new manager it’s hard to see how much improvement he can get out of this squad. Steve Bruce was actually doing a good job with that he had, but obviously we all know that Newcastle will spend big in the transfer window. I have to say the Newcastle situation is fascinating – we’ll see a huge injection of cash but we’ve never really a side in a relegation battle like this. Man City and PSG were something totally different when the money came in.
As the weeks pass, Newcastle are going to come under more and more pressure if they don’t start winning soon. They start the weekend five points from safety, and if they’re going to stay up they really need to pick up points at home in games like this Brentford started the season in great form, but they have slipped down the table recently with four losses in a row. Although they started with two unlucky losses against Chelsea and Leicester, the last two losses against Burnley and Norwich are very worrying. Especially considering Norwich hadn’t won a game prior to that result. They were unlucky looking at the xG figures, and they’ll just have to pick themselves up. The International Break was probably good as it gave them a chance to reset, and I would favour them to win here. I feel there isn’t much value in the match odds market however, and over 2.5 goals looks the best play here at 2.02. Brentford like to play an open game, and Newcastle will likely make plenty of mistakes – this could be a very end-to-end game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNewbre
● This is only the ninth ever league meeting between Newcastle United and Brentford and first in the top-flight – their last league encounter was in January 2017, a 2-1 win for the Magpies at Griffin Park in the Championship.
● Brentford have lost their last five away matches against Newcastle in all competitions, with these games coming between 1947 and 2016. Their one win at St James’ Park was in September 1934, a 5-2 win in the second-tier with Ernie Muttitt scoring a hat-trick.
● Newcastle are the only side without a win in the Premier League this season, with 11 games their longest run without victory from the start of any league campaign. However, the last two winless sides in the Premier League this season got their first victory against Brentford (Burnley on MD10, Norwich on MD11).
● Along with Watford, Newcastle are one of two sides without a clean sheet in the Premier League so far this season, while only Norwich (26) have conceded more than the Magpies so far (24).
● Brentford have lost each of their last four Premier League games, with the Bees last losing five consecutive league games back in December 2007 in League Two. Three of the five sides Brentford lost to in that run are longer in the Football League (Macclesfield Town, Darlington and Grimsby Town).
● Brentford have conceded seven goals in their last three Premier League games, shipping at least twice each time. The Bees had only conceded seven goals in their first eight games in the competition, and only conceded more than once on occasion.
● This will be Eddie Howe’s first game in charge of Newcastle. Only one of the last eight managers to take charge of the Magpies have won their first Premier League game at the helm (D3 L4 – incl. caretakers), with Alan Pardew beating Liverpool 3-1 in December 2010.
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has won two, drawn two and lost two of his six meetings with Brentford in all competitions, with this his first game against them since a 3-1 Championship defeat with Bournemouth in February 2015.
● Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin has made more progressive carries of 10+ metres than any other player in the Premier League this season (75). Meanwhile, no player has had more combined shots and chances created following a ball carry than the Frenchman this term (22 – 10 shots, 12 chances created).
● Brentford striker Ivan Toney made two Premier League appearances for Newcastle in the 2015-16 campaign. In Premier League history, Newcastle have conceded more goals to players who used to play for them in the competition than any other side (49).
NORWICH V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm Fair to say it’s been a rollercoaster few weeks for both these sides. Norwich finally got their first win of the season against Brentford in their final game before the break, and then got themselves a new manager in Dean Smith. An International Break isn’t a bad time for a new manager in fairness, but he’s been set an incredibly difficult task. When you think about how difficult it is for Newcastle to stay up and they have all that money coming in, what chance do Norwich have on the same number of points? Southampton come into this game in superb form, and they are one of the sides who wouldn’t have wanted the International Break as they had some great momentum. They are unbeaten in their last four, with a very unlucky draw against Burnley – they finished the game with an xG of 2.14 to 0.79.
Although Norwich broke their run before the International Break, they were actually very lucky to win that game and in general they have been very poor this season. They conceded an xG of 2.92 and were lucky to only concede once against Brentford. I’m surprised to see Southampton trading odds against here – I know they will have to grind out a win here, and they tend to do that with three 1-0 wins recently, but I would have them around the 2.0 mark rather than the 2.16 on offer. The Saints have looked rock solid at the back lately, and given that mistakes are likely to come at some stage from Norwich, I can only see one winner here. Southampton aren’t quite a Max Bet, but they are a very confident bet at 2.16 to beat an average Norwich side.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Southampton to beat Norwich at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQNorsou
● Norwich City have lost four of their last five Premier League matches against Southampton (W1), losing both games the last time they faced in 2019-20 (2-1 away, 0-3 at home).
● Southampton have lost just two of their last 15 matches against Norwich in all competitions (W7 D6), winning their last three in a row; they last won four consecutively against the Canaries between 1956 and 1958.
● Norwich City earned their first win in 21 Premier League games with victory at Brentford last time out. The Canaries last won back-to-back top-flight matches in April 2016.
● Norwich are winless in their last 10 Premier League home games (D1 L9), netting just three goals in this run. It’s the Canaries longest ever run without a top-flight victory at Carrow Road.
● Southampton have won three of their last four Premier League games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 18 in the competition (D5 L10). Saints are looking to secure three consecutive league wins for the first time since November 2020, a run which briefly took them to the top of the table.
● Norwich have the lowest shot conversion rate of any Premier League side so far this season (4.5%), while along with the Canaries only Leeds (7%) have converted a lower share of their shots so far than Southampton (7.3%).
● While Norwich have conceded a league-high 17 second half goals in the Premier League this season, no side has shipped a higher share of their goals after half-time in the competition this term than Southampton (83% – 10/12).
● Dean Smith will take charge of his first Premier League game for Norwich, while his last game in charge at Aston Villa was also against Southampton. He’ll be the first manager to face an opponent in consecutive Premier League games in the same season, but with different clubs.
● Since the start of 2018-19, Teemu Pukki has scored 35% of Norwich’s league goals across the Championship and Premier League (69/199) – only Aleksandar Mitrovic at Fulham (36%) has scored a higher share of his team’s goals in the top four tiers of English football in that time.
● Of the 120 players to have made at least 100 off the ball runs in the Premier League this season, Southampton’s Mohamed Elyounoussi has made the highest share of them into the box (42.2% – 76/180).
WATFORD V MANCHESTER UNITED
3pm Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was definitely someone who enjoyed the International Break! He got a two week break from the media pressure, but that’s going to come crashing back down on him this weekend. There’s no reason why Manchester United won’t be expected to win here, and anything other than an easy win will be acceptable. Even a 1-0 win under pressure from Watford won’t be enough to calm the situation. The International Break came at a good time for United because they were terrible against Manchester City – they lost 2-0 and pretty much went down without a fight too. It has been interesting to see the rumour grow that Zinedine Zidane is coming around to the idea of being Manchester United since leaving Real Madrid. There is a very, very limited supply of top quality managers available at the moment and one has to wonder, if Zidane is happy to come to Manchester, is now the time?
Essentially Watford have nothing to lose here. They face a United team under pressure, and Watford get to go for it with everyone expecting them to lose. An early Watford goal would certainly make things interesting, and given the issues United have had at the back lately I would definitely recommend Watford attacking from the start. They probably won’t opt for those tactics, but I would! Watford are under pressure themselves, they’re going to start the weekend just outside the relegation zone and apart from a shock 5-2 win away to Everton that came from nowhere, they have been very poor lately. As always, it all comes down to the odds. We have two sides with low confidence here, and there is a gulf in class. I feel the United price is just too short however at 1.53. They have had so many issues at the back lately, it’s hard to see this being an easy game for them. I feel a small lay of United is the value play.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Watford at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWatmun
● Watford have lost 12 of their 14 Premier League matches against Manchester United (W2) – against no side have they lost more.
● In the top-flight, Manchester United have won 18 of their 26 matches against Watford (D4 L4), a win ratio of 69%. Among teams they’ve faced at least 20 times in their top-flight history, they only have a higher win ratio against Luton Town (73% – P30 W22).
● No team has failed to score in more different Premier League matches than Watford this season (7). In the four games in which the Hornets have managed to find the net however, they’ve netted at least three goals on three occasions.
● Manchester United are winless in three Premier League matches against newly promoted teams, drawing against West Brom, Leeds and Fulham last season. They haven’t gone four in a row without a win against such opposition since a run ending in September 1997 that saw them fail to beat Sunderland, Derby, Leicester and Bolton.
● Watford have conceded at least once in each of their last 21 Premier League games – it’s their longest ever run without a clean sheet in the top-flight.
● Manchester United have lost four of their last six league games (W1 D1), as many as they had in their previous 40 in the competition (W24 D12). Four points is Manchester United’s fewest over a six-game spell in the Premier League since November/December 2015 under Louis van Gaal (3).
● Watford have conceded a league-high 154 fouls in the Premier League this season, at least 26 more than any other side. Meanwhile, the two worst offenders for fouls conceded among players in the competition this term are Watford’s Emmanuel Dennis (26) and Juraj Kucka (25).
● Watford manager Claudio Ranieri’s first ever Premier League game in charge was against Manchester United, a 3-3 draw at Old Trafford with Chelsea in September 2000. Ranieri has lost his last four league games against the Red Devils, having lost just two of his first 10 against them (W2 D6).
● Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has created more chances than any other player in the Premier League this season (37). Indeed, since his debut in the competition the Portuguese leads the way for both chances created (162) and assists (22), while only Mohamed Salah (55) has been directly involved in more goals than the midfielder (52).
● Since 2003-04 when he originally joined Man Utd, Cristiano Ronaldo has been directly involved in 104 goals in 91 league appearances against newly promoted teams (83 goals, 21 assists), scoring or assisting every 71 minutes. He has scored 20 goals in his last 14 league games against promoted teams, across spells with Real Madrid and Juventus.
WOLVES V WEST HAM
3pm The last 3pm Premier League game is a cracker as Wolves host West Ham. With Manchester City playing tomorrow, a win for West Ham would put them into second! They are having another remarkable season – I felt after the draws with Palace and Southampton and then the losses to Manchester United and Brentford that they might have had “their season” last season, but they have come storming back and they are going to challenge for a Top Four spot again. I know that they lack the class of the other top sides, but with Manchester United, Arsenal and Spurs having so many issues at the moment and Leicester not even in the top half of the table, perhaps the fourth spot is there for the taking. Regardless of their Top Four challenge, they should enjoy Europa League football again next season. What a fantastic job David Moyes has done – imagine if he didn’t take the United job after Ferguson – he would be so highly rated now, maybe even rumoured to take the United job now if he didn’t already have a go!
It’s no surprise that we have an open market here, and this should be a good game. Wolves are having a pretty good season too, and they are in a similar situation as West Ham in the sense that with Arsenal, Spurs and Leicester struggling, there’s definitely a chance there for Europa League football next season. A European finish is always a massive result for a club like Wolves, and they have been playing some nice football this season – they could be even higher in the table if they took their chances! It was bitterly disappointing to see them lose 2-0 to Crystal Palace before the International Break however, and they played very poorly – only creating an xG of 0.32. West Ham’s owner reportedly spent £100,000 on a private jet to bring Antonio back 24 hours early from International Duty for this game – that will give you an idea of how important The Hammers are taking this game! I feel the match odds market is very fair however, West Ham are rightly favourites. I can see a very cagey and tense affair here, and under 2.5 goals is worth backing at 1.88.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWolwhu
● Last season, West Ham completed their first league double over Wolves since the 1922-23 season – the Hammers haven’t won three league games in a row against them since a run of eight between 1920 and 1958.
● West Ham haven’t won back-to-back away league games against Wolves since a run of three between August 1920 and December 1922.
● Wolves have won their last two home league games, as many as they had in their previous nine at Molineux (L7). However, Wolves haven’t won three in a row at home in the top-flight since November 1980.
● West Ham have won each of their last four Premier League games, the longest current winning run in the competition. The Hammers haven’t won five top-flight games in a row since February 2006 under Alan Pardew.
● West Ham are unbeaten in 11 away games in all competitions (W8 D3), their longest ever solely as a top-flight club, and longest in general since March 2004 (13).
● West Ham have made just four changes to their starting XI in the Premier League this season, fewer than any other side. Meanwhile, no side has used fewer different players in the Premier League this season than Wolves (18).
● Excluding penalties, no side has scored more Premier League goals from set-piece situations this season than West Ham (6). However, Wolves are one of two sides yet to concede from a set-piece this term (along with Man City, excluding pens).
● West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen has scored more Premier League goals against Wolves than he has against any other side in the competition (3). His three goals against them have come in his last two appearances, and he averages a goal once every 77 minutes against the Black Country side.
● West Ham forward Michail Antonio has faced Wolves without ever scoring more often than any other side in his league career. The Jamaican has played 730 minutes across nine different games against Wolves without finding the net.
● Wolves duo Trincão (3) and Adama Traoré (1.9) have the two highest expected goals totals of players yet to score in the Premier League so far this season.
LIVERPOOL V ARSENAL
5.30pm We finish the day with a cracker as Liverpool host Arsenal! Despite this being the highlight fixture of the day, we actually have the shortest price. The market is pretty confident on a Liverpool win here, with the Reds trading 1.52 at the time of writing. Liverpool have been excellent this season, and they really should win here. They come into the game off the back of a defeat away to West Ham before the International Break however, and that along with a 2-2 draw at home to Brighton has definitely set them back with their title challenge. They start the day four points behind Chelsea, but they won’t be unhappy with their performances – they have been creating chances for fun and Arsenal will give them a host of chances here. Much has been made about Arsenal being on an unbeaten run, but when you look at the underlining numbers they aren’t impressive.
They have had a reasonably easy fixture list – playing sides like Watford, Aston Villa, Burnley and Norwich – and then they have been lucky too. They were played off the park by Brighton and Leicester away from home, but came away with a draw and a 2-0 win at Leicester. They will need a lot of luck to get a result here, and it’s hard to see Liverpool not taking their chances. For example, Leicester created an xG of 2.10 at home to Arsenal, and they were very unlucky not to score – Liverpool have been playing at a different level to Leicester all season, and if Arsenal give them the same sort of chances we could see a 3-0 or 4-0 Liverpool win. Arsenal will no doubt take confidence from their unbeaten run, but they are still an average side when you look under the hood, and this should be a one way traffic win for Liverpool.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Liverpool to beat Arsenal at 1.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivars
● Liverpool have won their last five home Premier League matches against Arsenal, netting at least three goals in every win – they last had a longer home top-flight winning run against the Gunners between September 1981 and January 1988 (seven in a row).
● Since Jürgen Klopp took charge of Liverpool, Arsenal have won just one of 11 Premier League games against the Reds (D3 L7), with the Gunners coming from 1-0 down to win 2-1 at the Emirates in July 2020.
● Liverpool’s defeat at West Ham last time out ended the Reds’ 20-game unbeaten run in the Premier League. Each of their last three defeats in the competition have been against London sides, with the Reds losing consecutively against Chelsea and Fulham before that 20-game run.
● Arsenal are now on the longest unbeaten run of any side in the Premier League (8 – W6 D2). The Gunners last had a longer run without defeat in the competition between August and December 2018 (14 games under Unai Emery).
● Liverpool are unbeaten in nine Premier League home games (W5 D4), having lost six in a row at Anfield before this. However, the Reds let a lead slip to draw their last two home league games 2-2, dropping as many points from winning positions in these games as they had in their previous 23 at Anfield combined (4).
● Arsenal have kept six clean sheets in their last nine Premier League away games, including each of the last three in a row. The Gunners haven’t kept four consecutive away clean sheets in the competition since May 2005.
● Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp has won 2.18 points-per-game in his 11 Premier League games against Arsenal (W7 D3 L1 – 24 pts), with only Roy Evans (2.30 – including one game as joint-manager with Gérard Houllier) and Pep Guardiola (2.82) averaging a higher points-per-game ratio against the Gunners in Premier League history among managers to take charge of 5+ games against them.
● Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in nine goals in nine Premier League games against Arsenal (7 goals, 2 assists), while at Anfield for Liverpool he has scored four times and assisted two more in four league appearances against the Gunners.
● Against no side has Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino scored more Premier League goals than the eight he has against Arsenal, though he’s failed to score in any of his last four against the Gunners.
● Among players to have played at least 75% of their game time as a striker in the Premier League this season, Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has applied more pressures than any other striker in the competition this term (374).