PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games all with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action concludes with LIVERPOOL v TOTTENHAM at 7.45pm.
BRENTFORD V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm It’s another huge weekend in the Premier League and we have a fantastic Saturday ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. While we don’t have an early kick off today, we do have a later than usual game for a Saturday with Liverpool hosting Spurs at 7-45pm. With Burnley also in action, it’s going to be another day that will have a massive impact at the top and bottom of the table. We start the action with Brentford hosting Southampton in the first of four games kicking off at 3pm. With the season drawing to an end, both these sides are right beside each other in the table on the same amount of points in 14th and 15th. I think it’s fair to say though that Brentford have been the better side and played the better football. I was surprised to see them lose so easily to Manchester United on Monday night, but most of their top quality performances have come at home. That being said, they don’t have the points to show for it! They have been incredibly unlucky not to win more games at home, and the draw in their last game here against Spurs highlighted that again. They had to settle for a 0-0, but their xG figure was nearly three times what Spurs managed.
It’s not a surprise to see Brentford as the favourites here – Southampton seem there for the taking in my opinion. Of course it has to be a worry that Brentford have only managed 21 points from their 17 home games this season which puts them towards the bottom of the home form table, but you can count on one hand the games where they have finished with a lower xG figure than the visiting side. They just haven’t taken their chances at home, but their level of play as been fantastic. I would definitely have Brentford shorter than their current 2.26 but at the same time I’m not going to go mad staking wise because of that worry. They really should be winning this fixture though, Southampton aren’t finishing the season strongly and they aren’t creating a huge amount of chances recently either. They have conceded more chances than they have created in their last five games. They’ve also conceded xG’s of 2.77 to Burnley and 2.04 to Brighton, obviously we will forgive them the Chelsea hammering and although they beat Arsenal they were very lucky. They aren’t firing while Brentford are, especially at home, and they can get back to winning ways here after the blip at Old Trafford.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brentford to beat Southampton at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreSou
● Brentford are winless in their last five home games against Southampton in all competitions (D2 L3), with this the first time they’re hosting Saints since a 3-0 loss in League One in April 2011.
● Southampton are looking to complete their first league double over Brentford since 1954-55, following their 4-1 win at St Mary’s in January.
● Southampton have won their last two Premier League games in London, beating both West Ham and Tottenham by a 3-2 scoreline. Saints haven’t won three consecutive top-flight games in the capital since March 1985.
● After winning nine consecutive Premier League games against promoted sides between February 2019 and October 2020, Southampton have won just four of their last 10 such matches (D1 L5).
● Southampton have won just one of their last nine Premier League games (D2 L6), beating Arsenal 1-0 last month. Saints have dropped 26 points from winning positions in the Premier League this term, more than any other side.
● Brentford have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three Premier League home games, and could become just the fourth side to record a shutout in four in a row at home this term after Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.
● Despite a recent run of good form, only Watford (14) and already relegated Norwich (11) have lost more Premier League home games this season than Brentford (8).
● Brentford have failed to score in their last two league games, last having a longer run in April 2019 (4).
● Ivan Toney has 12 Premier League goals for Brentford this season – the last player to score more for a side in that club’s maiden Premier League campaign was DJ Campbell for Blackpool in 2010-11 (13).
● Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse has been involved in 14 Premier League goals this season (9 goals, 5 assists), his second best return in the competition after his 15 last term. His 68 chances created this season is also his most in a single Premier League campaign.
BURNLEY V ASTON VILLA
3pm Burnley are the side with all the momentum in the Premier League at the moment, but they face another massive game in the relegation race today. They will be reasonably confident of beating this average Aston Villa side, but Villa do come into the game as favourites betting wise. Villa managed to break their run without a win last weekend with a smooth 2-0 win over Norwich. As I said last weekend, they really needed to win that game just for a boost in morale. I’m sure it wasn’t enjoyable for Steven Gerrard to see Rangers make it to the Europa League Final on Thursday night – he’s never going to achieve anything like that with Aston Villa. I was confident last weekend that Burnley would beat Watford given their form going into that game, but they made it very difficult for themselves! They were 1-0 down with ten minutes to go but turned it around in the most dramatic fashion to win 2-1. I’m sure that was a huge buzz for the players and the fans that travelled. At the time it looked like that was a huge win in the relegation battle – which it was and still it – but after Everton surprisingly beat Chelsea the day after it was almost needed just to keep up with the pace! Those two wins for Burnley and Aston Villa has dragged Leeds back into the relegation battle, but Burnley can only control what they do and you have to say this is another great chance for them.
Aston Villa are a pretty average side. In my opinion Gerrard hasn’t really improved them since he came in. They had a big boost in confidence and morale, rode that wave for a few wins but if you look at their xG figures their performance level hasn’t really changed. They got lucky in their opening few games under Gerrard and went from there – that’s football! Overall they still concede more than they create, and their average possession is under 50%. There isn’t a huge amount between the sides here on paper, and I feel Villa are far too short at 2.54. I fully expected an open market before I clicked in to check the odds, but I wasn’t expecting to see such a big gap between the sides – Burnley are a tempting bet at 3.1 because they are playing their best football of the season at the moment. They have created xG figures of 1.65, 1.27, 2.77, 1.97, 1.72 and 2.08 from their last six games – that’s better than Villa! So while the Burnley bet does make a lot of appeal, I’m happy to lay Villa and have the draw on our side too – I feel there’s so much value it’s worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Burnley at 2.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurAst
● Burnley are looking to win consecutive league games against Aston Villa for the first time since January 1973, following their 3-2 win in this exact fixture last season.
● Aston Villa have won just one of their last 26 away league games against Burnley (D6 L19), winning 2-1 in January 2020.
● The eight Premier League meetings between Burnley and Aston Villa have alternated between a draw (4) and a victory for either side (2 each), with Burnley winning the last match 3-2 in January 2021.
● Burnley and Aston Villa will face each other for the first time in this Premier League campaign. This is the latest into a season two top-flight teams are meeting for their first league game since 1987-88, when Luton and Nottingham Forest met for the first time on 13th May.
● Burnley are looking to secure four consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since April 2018 (a run of five), while they’ve won as many points in their four games under Michael Jackson as they had in their previous 10 under Sean Dyche (10).
● Each of Aston Villa’s last six Premier League wins have seen them keep a clean sheet, with the Villans winless in 11 games when conceding at least once (D2 L9).
● Aston Villa have conceded a league-high 22% of their Premier League goals in the opening 15 minutes of games this season (10/46), with only Norwich (11) shipping more such goals overall. Meanwhile, only Man City (20%) have scored a higher share of their goals in the opening 15 minutes than Burnley (19% – 6/31).
● Burnley are unbeaten in their four Premier League matches under Michael Jackson so far; only three managers in the club’s history have remained unbeaten in their first five league games in charge – Frank Casper (1983), Jimmy Mullen (1991) and Owen Coyle (2007).
● Ollie Watkins has nine Premier League goals this season. He could become the first Aston Villa player to score 10+ in consecutive top-flight campaigns since Christian Benteke (3 between 2012-13 and 2014-15), and the first Englishman to do so for the club since Gabriel Agbonlahor (3 between 2007-08 and 2009-10).
● Former Burnley striker Danny Ings has scored in his last three Premier League appearances against the Clarets. The only player to score in four consecutive Premier League appearances against a team they’ve previously played for in the competition was Craig Bellamy vs Newcastle United (2007 – 2011).
CHELSEA V WOLVES
3pm Next we have the shortest price of the day as Chelsea host Wolves. I have to say I do buy in to the theory that some clubs are “on the beach” early in their season, and I also feel that Wolves are one of those clubs this season. Perhaps this is a little surprising too given there will be extra European spots available this season with Liverpool winning the League Cup and then Liverpool and Chelsea in the FA Cup Final will mean another extra spot. Wolves can still battle for Europe, but their performances have been so poor recently. Something is not right – whether there is a problem in the dressing room or their players have just switched off given the gap back to 9th I’m not sure, but they arrive into this fixture off the back of three losses and although they managed to beat Aston Villa recently, they still conceded a very high xG figure. Chelsea shocked us all last weekend by losing to Everton – I for one did not see that coming, and their performance was bitterly disappointing too. They created more away to Manchester United midweek than they did away to Everton! Perhaps it was just “one of those days” for Chelsea, and this is a good chance to get back to winning ways.
Although I feel Chelsea should win here, I’m not rushing to back them at 1.38 as it’s hard to argue that they should be shorter. Betting is all about getting value and the 1.38 looks a fair price. In the side markets, it’s all about how many goals Chelsea will score. Given Wolves haven’t been creating many chances recently and haven’t even managed to score in their last three games, this obviously makes the goals market very interesting! I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chelsea keep a clean sheet here, so factor that into any goal bets. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.95 which looks a little short considering that Both Team Not To Score is 1.69. Chelsea haven’t been banging in goals for fun recently – they were involved in thrillers against Arsenal and Real Madrid recently but conceded more than they scored. They have had to grind out wins against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, West Ham in the Premier League and then should have scored more against Man United and Everton but didn’t take their chances. I think they’ll grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win here, and unders looks a nice play at 2.02.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheWol
● The last two Premier League games between Chelsea and Wolves have finished goalless – the Blues have never had three consecutive 0-0 draws against an opponent in their league history.
● Wolves are winless in their last eight away league games against Chelsea (D3 L5), since a 2-1 win in March 1979. Wolves have also failed to score in six of these eight visits to Stamford Bridge.
● Wolves have lost four of their last six Premier League games in London (W2), as many as they had in their previous 20 top-flight visits to the capital (W8 D8).
● Chelsea have lost three of their last six Premier League games (W2 D1), as many as they had in their first 28 this season (W17 D8).
● Just 44% of Chelsea’s Premier League points this season have come in home games (29/66), with only Watford (32%) and Brighton (36%) winning a lower share at home this term. As it stands, this would be the first time in the Blues’ history where they’ve won more away points than home in consecutive seasons.
● Wolves have lost each of their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 5-0. They’ve not lost four consecutive league games without scoring a single goal since March-April 1970 in the top-flight.
● Both Chelsea (20/29) and Wolves (22/32) have conceded a league-high 69% of their Premier League goals this season in the second half of games. In fact, the Blues have conceded before half-time in just one of their last 13 Premier League games, doing so twice in their eventual 4-2 defeat to Arsenal.
● Only bottom side Norwich (19) have failed to score in more different Premier League games than Wolves (16) this season. Only in 2009-10 (17) have Wolves failed to score in more different games in a single Premier League campaign.
● Despite only Burnley (23) and Crystal Palace (24) using fewer players than Chelsea (25) in the Premier League this term, the Blues have made more starting XI changes than any other side (114).
● Mason Mount is Chelsea’s highest scorer (10) and assister (9) in the Premier League this season, with only Mohamed Salah registering double figures for both goals and assists so far this term. He could become just the fifth different Chelsea player to reach 10+ for both in a single Premier League campaign, after Frank Lampard (x4), Didier Drogba (x3), Juan Mata (2012-13) and Eden Hazard (2018-19).
CRYSTAL PALACE V WATFORD
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Crystal Palace hosting Watford. Both sides were involved in games that finished 2-1 last weekend, but both had different experiences! Watford lost from 1-0 up with ten minutes to go, while Crystal Palace came from 1-0 down and scored the winner in the 92th minute! Watford have lost their last five games coming into this one, and we’re at the stage of the season now when they are just going through the motions waiting to go down to the Championship. They way in which teams just above them are winning games now means they would have never been able to live with that, and it’s was just their time to go down – they simply weren’t good enough this season. After getting back to winning ways last weekend, this is a nice chance for Palace to put back-to-back wins together. I said last weekend that I expected a little hangover from Palace after getting knocked out of the FA Cup – that came with a loss to Newcastle and then a 0-0 with Leeds but the fixture list has been kind to them and got them back to winning ways. Southampton aren’t playing great at the moment and although it took a last minute winner, it would have been a nice boost for Palace.
Watford haven’t got much going for them here. They come into the game off the back of five straight losses and morale must be very low considering they are going down. Although they had the lead for 80 minutes last weekend, when Burnley started putting on the pressure they kind of fell apart. The two Burnley goals could have been dealt with but Watford just ever cleared their lines with confidence. I feel this game is there for the taking for Palace – the only positive thing you’d say about Watford is that they have gained more points away from home compared to at home this season, but Palace have been creating a lot of chances recently and they should be over their exit from the FA Cup now. A strong finish could still see them finish in the Top Ten given they have a game in hand on Newcastle and that should be their aim. I’m going to keep stakes reasonably small, but Palace are worth backing at 1.7.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Crystal Palace to beat Watford at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryWat
● Crystal Palace are looking to complete their first league double over Watford since the 2011-12 Championship campaign, following their 4-1 win at Vicarage Road in February.
● This will be Watford’s 110th league meeting with Crystal Palace, making them the side they’ve faced the joint-most in their league history (also 110 vs QPR and Bournemouth). They’ve lost 47 of their previous 109 against the Eagles, only losing more against QPR (49).
● Watford have won one of their last 29 league matches against London sides (D7 L21), a 1-0 home win over Millwall in April 2021. In the top-flight, they have lost 14 matches in a row against teams from the capital, the longest ever losing run against London teams in top-flight history.
● Failure to win will result in Watford’s fourth relegation from the Premier League, making them the sixth different side to be relegated from the competition on 4+ occasions (Norwich 6, West Bromwich Albion 5, Crystal Palace, Middlesbrough and Sunderland 4).
● Crystal Palace are looking to win consecutive Premier League games for just the second time this season, previously doing so in October/November (against Man City and Wolves). Since the start of February, only top two sides Man City (7) and Liverpool (3) have conceded fewer Premier League goals than Crystal Palace (8).
● Watford have conceded 69 goals in the Premier League this season – only once have they conceded more in a single campaign in the competition: 77 in 1999-00, with the Hornets finishing bottom that year.
● Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three home league games. They’ve never kept four in a row at Selhurst Park in the Premier League, last doing so in any division in the Championship in December 2012.
● Watford have had fewer different goalscorers than any other Premier League side this season (8, excluding own goals). Only Arsenal in 1993-94 (6), Fulham in 2001-02 (7) and Burnley in 2014-15 (7) have had fewer in a single campaign.
● Watford have conceded a league-high eight goals in the 90th minute (incl. stoppage time) in the Premier League this season, while only Chelsea and Manchester City (7 each) have scored more such goals than Crystal Palace (6).
● Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha scored his 12th Premier League goal of the season last time out against Southampton, making this his best ever goalscoring campaign in the top-flight. He also scored twice against Watford in the Eagles’ 4-1 win earlier this season, having scored just one in his previous 10 against the Hornets
BRIGHTON V MANCHESTER UNITED
5.30pm We have two fascinating markets to finish the day, and Brighton hosting Manchester is the first of them at 5-30pm! It’s a sign of the times for Manchester United here to have such an open market for this game. Usually we’d see United odds on favourites for a game like this, maybe then over the last few years they would be around 2.2 but now there isn’t much between the sides as Brighton trade 2.8 and Man United 2.7. United just haven’t been good enough this season – they have gone through the motions since Ole was sacked and they are in desperate need of a summer clear out. Just what that clear out will look like will depend on the success of Erik Ten Hag and it will be interesting to see what influence the new manager has. If there isn’t much change, then he won’t last long – this United squad is very poor and what is worse is they don’t seem to want to work hard either. I didn’t fancy United to beat Brentford on Monday night, but they played well and Ronaldo produced another goal in the final game of the season at Old Trafford. With two away games left, it will be very interesting to see do United finish strongly or throw in the towel early.
Brighton have only lost once in their last six games, and that loss came away to Manchester City so you can forgive them that. They were very impressive away to Wolves last weekend totally dominating the game for a 3-0 win. I know I mentioned Wolves might be “on the beach” early in their game above but you can’t knock the Brighton performances recently. They grinded out away wins against Spurs and Arsenal too, and although they didn’t take their chances here against Norwich they finished the game with an xG of 2.86. I know Ronaldo is the best player in the world, I think this season has put that question to bed to be honest, and he can score from anywhere and when you’re thinking about laying United that always has to be a worry. But apart from some Ronaldo magic I can see United struggling again. I think if Brighton can deal with Ronaldo then they’ll win the game – they have been playing some nice football recently and United just don’t create enough chances these days. They might have scored three on Monday but those performances are few and far between. I’m happy to lay United at 2.7, and I would swap the sides around in the market to have Brighton as marginal favourites.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Brighton at 2.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriMun
● Having won two of their first three Premier League games against Manchester United, Brighton have lost each of their last six against the Red Devils.
● Manchester United have won each of their last seven meetings with Brighton in all competitions, their longest ongoing winning run against another current Premier League side.
● Brighton have won three of their last five Premier League games (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 25 (D13 L9). However, each of their last five victories have come away from home, with only five clubs having a run of six wins without any coming at home (most recently Liverpool last season).
● Manchester United have lost each of their last four Premier League away games, as many as they had in their previous 42 on the road. It’s their longest run of consecutive away league defeats since a run of six between December 1980 and March 1981.
● Brighton have failed to win any of their last eight Premier League home games (D4 L4) since a 2-0 victory over Brentford on Boxing Day. Only once in the competition have they had a longer such run, going 14 games between June 2020 and January 2021.
● Manchester United are winless in their last four Premier League games against opponents starting the day in the top half of the table (D2 L2) – they last had a longer winless run against such opposition between September and December 2016 under José Mourinho (D3 L2).
● Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 18 goals in 29 appearances for Manchester United in the Premier League this season, as many as he did in his final season at the club before leaving for Real Madrid (18 in 33 appearances in 2008-09). The last player to score more than 18 in a Premier League season for the Red Devils was Robin van Persie in 2012-13 (26).
● Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored three goals in eight Premier League games against former side Manchester United. He’s the highest scoring player against Man Utd in Premier League history among players to have previously played for the Red Devils in the competition.
● Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in six goals in four Premier League appearances against Brighton (4 goals, 2 assists), never failing to either score or assist in a game against the Seagulls so far.
● Leandro Trossard is enjoying his best scoring season for Brighton (7), with only Neal Maupay netting more for the Seagulls in the Premier League this term (8). Trossard has scored three goals in his last four league games, as many as he had in his previous 24.
LIVERPOOL V TOTTENHAM
7.45pm It’s not often we get a Premier League fixture at this time on a Saturday, but it really is one to enjoy! Liverpool host Spurs in a game that will have a massive impact on the title race and the Top Four race. From a purely neutral point of view, a Spurs win would really set up the North London Derby next Thursday but it’s very hard to see Spurs getting three points against this superb Liverpool side. Liverpool had another dramatic night on Tuesday in the Champions League – after taking a 2-0 lead into the second leg at Villarreal they found themselves 2-0 down at half-time. Not only did they bounce back to get to the Final, but they managed to win the game 3-2. Absolutely incredible. It just feels like this Liverpool side can win from anywhere, and we will likely see a very open game here with lots of goals. Liverpool aren’t afraid of having an end-to-end open game because they know they will out score sides – I’m sure Conte isn’t thinking that an open game will favour Spurs here! Spurs recorded a nice 3-1 win over Leicester last weekend, that was a win that they desperately needed after losing to Brighton and only drawing with Brentford – a game that they were lucky to draw too.
With Manchester United being so poor this season, we really haven’t had a top class Top Four race. Arsenal and Spurs have been very unreliable and had their ups and downs. The truth is apart from Liverpool and Man City the rest have been pretty average this season – Chelsea have been clearly the third best side but there’s a huge gulf in class to the rest. I think Liverpool will win easily here, and it’s a case of how many goals can they score rather than will they win. Obviously it’s very tempting to look at some fancy prices in the goal and handicap markets, but I’m happy to have a Max Bet on Liverpool at 1.48. It’s just too big to ignore – I would easily have Liverpool in the 1.3’s here. Another bet that’s tempting is the Any Other Home Win at 5.5 in the Correct Score market. Spurs have been conceding plenty of goals this season with Liverpool creating so many chances, it seems like we could easily get a four goal or more win from Liverpool here. I would also recommend that bet, but for me it’s a Max Bet on Liverpool to finish a cracking day.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Liverpool to beat Tottenham at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivTot
● Liverpool have only lost one of their last 27 Premier League home games against Tottenham (W18 D8), and are unbeaten in their last 10 since a 2-0 loss in May 2011 (W7 D3).
● After winning four of their five Premier League meetings with Liverpool between November 2010 and November 2012 (D1), Spurs have won just one of their last 18 against the Reds (D5 L12).
● Liverpool against Tottenham is the second highest scoring fixture in Premier League history (170 goals in 59 meetings), while it’s had more penalties awarded than any other match-up in the competition (23).
● Liverpool are unbeaten in 21 Premier League home games, scoring 52 goals and conceding just nine in this run. They’ve won each of their last 12 at Anfield, including the last five while keeping a clean sheet – only once have they had a longer run of home wins without conceding in the Premier League (8 between October 2005 and January 2006).
● On the last 11 occasions that Tottenham have scored in the first half of a Premier League game, they’ve also gone on to score again after half-time. However, on the last five occasions they’ve failed to score in the opening 45 minutes, they haven’t found the net at all in the match.
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has been involved in nine goals in 13 Premier League appearances against Liverpool (7 goals, 2 assists), with five of these coming in seven games against them at Anfield (4 goals, 1 assist).
● Sadio Mané has scored in 49 different Premier League games at Anfield (1 for Southampton and 48 for Liverpool) avoiding defeat in all 49 of those matches (W44 D5) – the most games a player has scored in at a single stadium in the competition’s history without ever losing.
● Both of Tottenham manager Antonio Conte’s Premier League visits to Liverpool have finished in 1-1 draws – only four managers have avoided defeat in each of their first three away games at Anfield in the competition; Martin O’Neill, Peter Reid, Roy Hodgson and Paul Lambert.
● Son Heung-min has scored 19 Premier League goals this season, with none of them coming from the penalty spot. He could become just the second Tottenham player to score 20 in a Premier League campaign without any of them being penalties, after Gareth Bale in 2012-13.
● Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson has kept 20 clean sheets in the Premier League this season – among goalkeepers, only Petr Cech in 2004-05 (24), Edwin van der Sar in 2008-09 (21) and Alisson himself in 2018-19 (21) have kept more in a single campaign.