PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews the busy opening Saturday of the new Premier League season which starts at 12.30pm with FULHAM hosting LIVERPOOL. All match previews include stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FULHAM V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm We. Are. Back. It’s the first big Saturday of the Premier League season on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We kick off the action with Fulham hosting Liverpool, who are trading the shortest price of any side this weekend. At the time of writing the market is very confident in a Liverpool win with Jurgen Klopp’s men trading as short as 1.33. Fulham were exceptionally impressive in the Championship last season, but as we all know the Premier League is a different ball game and it’s going to be very difficult for them to stay up this season. Bournemouth seem to be everyone’s pick to get relegated, but after that the next two favourites are Nottingham Forest and Fulham. Coming up and then going back down must really be a horrible feeling; especially when you know just how difficult the Championship is – it’s so competitive. In terms of staying up this season, the result today won’t have much impact on Fulham. They won’t be expected to pick up points against the likes of Liverpool and to be honest anything they get here will be viewed as a complete bonus. Liverpool put in a pretty impressive display in the community Shield and if that display is anything to go by they are going to be very entertaining to watch this season!
I know Liverpool are always entertaining with Klopp’s tactics, but they conceded a host of chances in the Community Shield. Haaland was mocked for missing them, but he won’t miss those kind of chances often. The reality is Liverpool will have to short those issues out at the back if they are going to lift the title this season. Liverpool were the best attacking side last season, but Manchester City were more solid at the back and as we all know, being strong at the back is worth more over the course of the season. There isn’t much in it I know, but that’s where the title will be won and lost again between two superb sides. For today, in my opinion a lot of punters will feel that this game screams goals. The markets agree too as Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.55. I disagree with this, I know Liverpool attack a lot and conceded a host of chances last weekend, but Fulham were a very cagey side last season – they are solid at the back and will set up quite negatively here. I think there’s a little bit of value in Unders here at the odds, and I’m happy to start the day with a small bet at around 2.7.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulLiv
● Fulham were unbeaten across both Premier League games against Liverpool in 2020-21, drawing 1-1 at home and winning 1-0 at Anfield. Despite suffering relegation that season, the Cottagers’ four points against the Reds was their joint-most against an opponent (also four v Sheffield United and West Brom).
● Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp lost his first Premier League meeting with Marco Silva in February 2017, with his side losing 0-2 away at Hull. Since then, Klopp is unbeaten in his last four against the Portuguese in the competition (W2 D2), with the most recent being a 5-2 win against Silva’s Everton.
● On the five previous occasions Fulham have been newly promoted to the English top-flight, they have lost their first league match of the season, doing so in 1949-50, 1959-60, 2001-02, 2018-19 and 2020-21.
● Liverpool have won their first Premier League match in each of the last four seasons, the longest ongoing run in the top-flight, scoring at least three goals in every victory (15 goals in total).
● Fulham are winless in their last 10 Premier League games (D2 L8), with their last top-flight victory coming against Liverpool in March 2021.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 19 Premier League games (W16 D3) since a 1-0 loss at Leicester in December 2021. The Reds have won their last three despite conceding the opening goal within the opening 15 minutes each time – only Arsenal (March 2012) have ever won four consecutive Premier League games from behind.
● In their last Premier League season in 2020-21, Fulham became the first side to fail to reach double figures for goals in home league games in English league history (9 in 19 games). They’ve failed to score more than once in any of their last 14 Premier League home games, netting just four goals in total in that run.
● This will be Fulham boss Marco Silva’s first Premier League game in 976 days, a 5-2 defeat with Everton against Liverpool in December 2019. There have been just three occasions of a manager having a longer gap between Premier League games with both of them coming against the same side – Kevin Keegan (2054 days between 1997 and 2002, vs Leeds), Alan Pardew (1308 days between 2007 and 2010, vs Liverpool) and Keegan again (1048 days between 2005 and 2008, vs Bolton).
● Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored 24 goals in 104 Premier League games, netting once on average every 286 minutes in the competition. This is a stark contrast to his Championship record, where the Serbian has scored 85 goals in 126 games, netting once on average every 117 minutes.
● Mohamed Salah has scored in Liverpool’s opening Premier League game in each of his five seasons with the club, with the Egyptian the only player in the competition’s history to score on MD1 five years in a row. Indeed, he has seven such goals in total, with only three players netting more (Alan Shearer, Frank Lampard and Wayne Rooney, 8 each).
BOURNEMOUTH V ASTON VILLA
3pm We kick the 3pm games off with Bournemouth hosting Aston Villa. As I said above, Bournemouth are a lot of punters favourites to go down this season, and it will be interesting to see how they get on here. Aston Villa aren’t a great side, they didn’t really do anything impressive last season and finished down in 14th. Steven Gerrard usually takes all the headlines, but in my opinion he hasn’t really improved the side since coming in. They still don’t create enough, however they are too good to go down. They will likely finish in or around 14th again to be honest. Bournemouth are the only side to start the season odds on to go down – they were only two points off Fulham at the end of the Championship last season but they haven’t really improved their squad. No doubt they will have money issues compared to the other sides, and their manager Scott Parker basically did the promotion and relegation performance with Fulham recently. It will be very interesting to see does he last season if things start badly – one wonders what a true value price would be on him being in charge come Christmas. While Fulham play Liverpool earlier in the day and are one of the favourites to go down too; that game is basically a “freebie” in the relegation battle. This one isn’t – I believe if Bournemouth are going to stay in the Premier League they need to be picking up points at home to sides like Aston Villa.
If Aston Villa come out and hammer Bournemouth here, you feel it’s going to be a very long and difficult season. I’m looking forward to seeing the xG figures from the game to see how the teams performed. Before the game, I feel Villa are priced very fairly here at 2.1 – Bournemouth look a pretty limited side to me based on their squad and it’s hard to argue that Villa should be trading much bigger. At the same time, I couldn’t make Villa odds on here given their performance last season – in a nutshell Villa “should” win but I don’t trust them to get the job done. I’m sure there will be a lot of value taking on these two throughout the season, but today I can see a pretty dull game. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.88 and that really stands out here. Villa don’t create a huge amount of chances, and I can’t see Bournemouth being too attacking here either. Villa might grind out a 1-0 win, but I wouldn’t even be surprised to see a 0-0 here either. Unders is a nice looking bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.88 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouAst
● Bournemouth’s first ever Premier League game in August 2015 was a 1-0 home defeat to Aston Villa – they’ve won all three of their league meetings with the Villans since then, each by a 2-1 scoreline.
● Aston Villa have won just once on the five previous occasions they’ve kicked off a Premier League campaign against a promoted side (D1 L3), though that victory did come at Bournemouth in 2015-16.
● After losing their first ever meeting with Bournemouth 3-0 in October 1971, Aston Villa have scored in each of their last eight against the Cherries in all competitions. Nine of their 11 total goals against them have come in the second half of games, including all four in the Premier League.
● In four of their five seasons at top-flight level, at least one of the sides competing in Bournemouth’s opening league match of the season has gone on to be relegated: their opponents Aston Villa in 2015-16, West Brom in 2017-18, Cardiff City in 2018-19 and Bournemouth themselves in 2019-20.
● Aston Villa have lost two of their three opening day Premier League matches since returning to the top-flight in 2019 (W1), shipping three goals in each defeat: 1-3 vs Spurs in 2019-20 and 2-3 vs Watford in 2021-22.
● Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 10 home league games (W6 D4) since a 1-0 loss to Hull in January. However, in the Premier League the Cherries have won just three of their last 13 at the Vitality Stadium (D3 L7).
● Aston Villa finished the 2021-22 Premier League campaign with just two wins from their final 11 games (D3 L6), with those victories coming against Norwich City and Burnley, who were both relegated.
● Bournemouth boss Scott Parker and Aston Villa’s Steven Gerrard met 15 times as players in the Premier League, with Gerrard winning nine to Parker’s four (two draws). All four of Parker’s victories against Gerrard came in home games (twice with Charlton, once with Newcastle, once with West Ham).
● Aston Villa’s Philippe Coutinho has been involved in three goals in his last two Premier League appearances against Bournemouth (2 goals, 1 assist), scoring and assisting in his only previous visit to the Vitality Stadium in a 4-0 win for Liverpool in December 2017.
● Dominic Solanke has been involved in 20 goals in his last 22 home league games for Bournemouth, scoring 17 and assisting a further three. Solanke was the highest scoring English player in the top four tiers of English football last season (29).
LEEDS V WOLVES
3pm We have the most open market of the day here as Leeds host Wolves. There’s a lot of talking points today and this game is a risk of getting lost, but I have to say I find this fixture fascinating. If you read a host of season previews, like myself, then you will know Wolves are a very popular “dark horse bet” to get relegated this season. Personally I can’t see them going down, although at some stage they might be mix but it’s very difficult to see them going down – there’s just too many teams with less quality. Wolves did finish last season very poorly though, and additionally they were very poor at the back last season – something pretty unusual for Wolves; and the xG figures highlighted they were even worse than their results. Usually they grind out results, and when that stopped they just couldn’t get results. Leeds are a team that will definitely be in the relegation battle at some stage, and they will be hoping to improve at the back too. They conceded over two goals per game in the Premier League last season, and that wasn’t far off what their xG was either which has to be a major worry. They turned things around with a change in manager though towards the end of the season, and they should be able to stay up again to be honest.
It’s very easy to understand why we have an open market here. We should have a pretty close game too, and I feel it will be closer than the odds suggest. Leeds deserve to be favourites, but I’m not sure I would have them as short as 2.44. Wolves conceded an average xG of 1.6 per game in the Premier League last season which is clearly a major worry but those stats are still better than Leeds. Wolves actually improved their position in the table on just away form last season, while Leeds only managed 18 points from their 19 home games last season which is why they ended up in the relegation battle. As I said, it’s easy to see why we have an open market and I do expect a very close game – Leeds look the value lay to me at 2.44 – they concede so many chances at the back Wolves will get plenty of chances to get a result here.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Leeds to beat Wolves at 2.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeWol
● Leeds and Wolves will face in their first league match of the season for a second time, last doing so in 2012-13 in the Championship with the Whites winning 1-0 thanks to a Luciano Becchio goal; Wolves were relegated to League One at the end of the season.
● Wolves are unbeaten in four away league games against Leeds United (W3 D1) since a 2-1 defeat back in April 2016 in the Championship under Kenny Jackett.
● Wolves have only failed to score in one of their last 13 league games against Leeds (W7 D2 L4), doing so in a 1-0 home loss in October 2016. They’ve scored in their last six league visits to Elland Road since a 1-0 loss in August 2012.
● Leeds scored a 90th minute goal in both Premier League meetings with Wolves last season, with these earning the Whites a point at Elland Road (1-1) and all three points at Molineux (3-2).
● Leeds have lost their opening Premier League match in each of their two seasons since returning to the top-flight, shipping nine goals in defeats to Liverpool (3-4 in 2020-21) and Man Utd (1-5 in 2021-22). Prior to this, the Whites hadn’t lost their opening top-flight match in any of their previous 14 seasons at this level between 1990-91 and 2003-04.
● Wolves have only lost their first Premier League match in one of their last six seasons (W3 D2), although that came last season when they were beaten 1-0 by Leicester City.
● Leeds haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 12 Premier League home games, while the Whites have won just one of their last nine at Elland Road (D2 L6).
● Wolves are without a win in seven Premier League games (D2 L5), while they’ve not kept a clean sheet in any of their last nine. Wolves are on the longest winless league run of all current Premier League sides (7).
● Leeds boss Jesse Marsch has won his opening league game in four of his last five seasons in charge of various clubs, though the American did lose on MD1 with RB Leipzig in the German Bundesliga last season.
● New Leeds signing Luis Sinisterra was Feyenoord’s top goalscorer in all competitions last season, though just 12 of his 23 goals came in the league. He would be the first Colombian to play for Leeds United in the Premier League.
NEWCASTLE V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm Another very interesting game here. We get our first look at Nottingham Forest in the Premier League, and we also get to see what progress Newcastle have made during the summer. I have to say Eddie Howe came as a surprise to me at the time last season, especially given the money on offer, but he has done a very good job. I think he’ll be the man to take Newcastle to the top half of mid-table and then someone else will take over – we’re bound to see a big name here at some stage given the owners money. It will be fascinating to see where the club is in five years time – as I said last season this is the first time a club in a relegation battle got taken over with an unlimited budget to be honest. Their January transfer window transformed them into a mid-table side, and now they have to build on that – realistically the Europa League should be the first target and that can attract a higher quality of player. Look at the situation with Manchester United at the moment; the issue is they aren’t in the Champions League for a lot of players – it’s the same on a smaller level for a side like Newcastle. They have the money but the appeal isn’t there yet.
From a football fan point of view, I’d love to see Nottingham Forest stay up this season. I know they are one of the favourites to go down this season, but isn’t it fantastic to see them back in the big time given their history. I suppose the situation at Newcastle highlights how money changes the game, but Nottingham Forest are a proper club with a rock solid history – it would be great if they could stay up and build on that. For the time being though, their squad looks a little weak for the Premier League and you can see them being in the relegation battle all season. Newcastle really impressed me at times last season, and they offered a lot of value at times too looking at their xG figures. They were creating a lot of chances and if they turn up in similar form then they should win here. The 1.68 is big enough for me to have my first home win bet of the season!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewNot
● Newcastle have faced Nottingham Forest more often without losing than they have any other opponent in the Premier League (8 – W5 D3), winning their last such meeting 2-1 in March 1999.
● Nottingham Forest have lost each of their last six away league games against Newcastle, since a 1-0 victory in October 1988. They’ve conceded at least twice in each defeat (17 in total), while netting just three goals in reply.
● Newcastle United are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games against promoted sides (W3 D5). This is the third time they’re beginning a Premier League campaign against a promoted team, beating Leicester 3-1 in 1994-95 before a goalless draw with Charlton in 1998-99.
● Newcastle United have only won their first Premier League match in one of their last eight seasons at this level (D1 L6), beating West Ham United in 2020-21.
● Among teams to play in more than one Premier League season, Nottingham Forest have the best win ratio in their opening match of the season, winning four of their five previous games (80%).
● Nottingham Forest have won their last three Premier League games, with no current side on a longer such run (Liverpool and Spurs also 3). However, this will be Forest’s first Premier League game in 23 years and 82 days, the longest ever gap between matches in the competition.
● Nottingham Forest have conceded just 12 goals in their 21 league games in 2022 – only Liverpool (10) have conceded fewer goals in the top four tiers of English football so far this calendar year (excluding teams coming up from the National League).
● Newcastle have won 12 of their 19 Premier League games so far in 2022, with only Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham winning more. It’s already more league games than they won in both 2020 (9) and 2021 (8).
● Newcastle’s Callum Wilson has scored in the opening game in three of the last four Premier League campaigns, including in both of his seasons so far with the Magpies.
● Nottingham Forest new signing Taiwo Awoniyi was the sixth highest scorer in the German Bundesliga last season with 15 goals. The Nigerian’s strikes were worth a league-high 16 points for his side, while he also scored more winning goals (7) than any other player in the division last term.
TOTTENHAM V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Spurs hosting Southampton. Things have been a little boring for Spurs this summer, and you know what – that’s fantastic news! Usually it’s drama after drama, embarrassment after embarrassment, but all seems calm under Conte at the moment. That’s a dangerous thing for the others in my opinion, and it will be interesting to see what Conte can do with Spurs this season. I don’t think they are good enough to get close to Manchester City or Liverpool over the course of the season, but we all know that they can give them a good game over 90 minutes, and I do feel that Spurs can switch places with Chelsea this season. The transfer markets hasn’t been a success for Chelsea, but they do still have a top class manager. The Spurs squad looks pretty strong now, and if everyone stays fit then Conte will deliver tactics wise. Of course, we have to remember that a shock result is never far away. Last season Spurs opened the season with a win over Manchester City – and they were played off the park. Imagine they opened this season with a loss at home to Southampton!
The Saints finished last season very poorly – but they looked like a side on the beach early as they say with nothing to play for. They will be better here, but most of their issues came away from home last season. They only managed 15 points from their 19 away games last season, and they’re going to have to improve on that. Interestingly, Southampton conceded an average xG of 1.8 per Premier League game last season – the exact same figure as Spurs scored! Both figures were exactly in line with their expected too! Spurs look fairly priced at 1.4 – I wouldn’t back them as a single bet but I couldn’t put anyone off including them in a Betdaq Multiple this weekend. I feel this game screams goals and we’ll have a pretty open game here. Spurs have been excellent going forward, and I can’t see Southampton being too negative either. Overs looks the value here at 1.66.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotSou
● This will be the fourth occasion Tottenham Hotspur have opened a league campaign against Southampton, with the Lilywhites winning two and drawing one of the three previous games – although it’ll be the first played in London.
● Southampton have picked up just three wins from their last 20 away Premier League games against Tottenham Hotspur (D2 L15), winning in this exact fixture last term. In fact, they’ve lost more away Premier League games versus Spurs (17) than against any other side in the competition’s history.
● Tottenham Hotspur have won their first league match in six of the last nine seasons (D1 L2), having won their opening league game in just three of their 16 seasons before this run.
● Among current Premier League sides, Southampton are on the longest winless run in their opening Premier League matches of the season (P8 D4 L4), losing all three under current manager Ralph Hasenhüttl. Indeed, the Austrian has the joint-worst 100% losing record in first games of Premier League seasons, along with Danny Wilson.
● This is Tottenham’s first home Premier League game at 3pm on Saturday in 973 days, since beating Burnley 5-0 in December 2019. It’s the first time they’ve begun a Premier League campaign in this kick-off slot since 2001-02, a 0-0 draw with Aston Villa.
● Southampton have won just one of their last 12 league games (D2 L9), beating Arsenal 1-0 in April. Saints have lost each of their last four in the Premier League, last having a longer losing run in January/February 2021 (6).
● Southampton have won two of their last three away league games in London (L1), as many as they had in their previous 19 in the capital (D6 L11). One of those two victories was at Spurs, with Southampton last winning consecutive league visits to the Lilywhites in January 1971.
● Only Alan Shearer (14) and Andrew Cole (11) have scored more or as many Premier League goals against Southampton than Tottenham pair Harry Kane (11) and Son Heung-min (10).
● Last season’s Premier League golden boot winner Son Heung-min has scored 12 goals in his last 10 league games for Tottenham. He’s also the highest overall Premier League goalscorer at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, netting 30 goals at the ground.
● New Tottenham signing Ivan Perisic was involved in nine goals in his last 10 league games for Inter Milan last season (3 goals, 6 assists). At 33 years and 185 days, a goal in this game would make the Croatian the joint second oldest player to score on a Premier League debut, after only Zlatan Ibrahimovic (34y 316d).
EVERTON V CHELSEA
5.30pm We finish the first Saturday back in the Premier League with Everton hosting Chelsea. Chelsea legend Frank Lampard would dearly love a fast start here and turning over his old side! Lampard came in to “save” Everton last season and although he managed it, he didn’t really improve the side. They got a massive three points against Manchester United just when they needed it – their fixture list was pretty tough, and they were “lucky” to pick up points against the top sides. As I mentioned in the Spurs game above, you have to have your doubts about Chelsea this season. They have a top class manager, but they haven’t had a good transfer window. They are lucky that Arsenal and Manchester United are so poor these days, but I do feel the gap might close a little this season – I can also see Spurs and Chelsea swapping places. Although over the course of the season Chelsea might go backwards a little, they will be a popular bet to win here at 1.75. Everton were so poor last season, and you can see by the interviews Frank Lampard has been giving that he is worried about this season. His body language hasn’t been good in my opinion.
Although you could class Everton as low scorers last season, the issues were all at the back. They conceded an average of 1.7 goals per Premier League game last season, and that was in line with their xG figure too. It was a common thought to say Everton were Championship level at the back last season and that’s a pretty fair comment. Lampard will need to fix that, otherwise Everton will be in the relegation battle again this season – they are probably your classic “too good to go down” club, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t be disappointing. Chelsea should win here, but I prefer Over 2.5 goals at 2.0 over the Chelsea option at 2.0. Everton just concede too many chances in my opinion, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an end-to-end game here with plenty of chances – I expected to see Overs trading odds on.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.0 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveChl
● Everton have won each of their last four Premier League home games against Chelsea – only once in their history have they had a longer run against the Blues, winning seven in a row between 1923 and 1935.
● Chelsea’s run of four consecutive defeats at Everton is their longest active losing streak away to a current Premier League side. Indeed, the only time they suffered more consecutive away defeats against a team in the competition also came on Merseyside, losing six in a row against Liverpool between 1992 and 1997.
● Everton have kept a clean sheet in five of their last nine Premier League meetings with Chelsea (W4 D3 L2), as many as they had in their previous 27 against the Blues.
● Everton are unbeaten in their opening Premier League match in the last 10 seasons (W4 D6), the longest ongoing run in the top-flight. They were last beaten in their opening league match in 2011-12, losing 1-0 to Queens Park Rangers.
● Among all teams to have featured in at least 10 Premier League campaigns, only Manchester United (2.13) have a better points-per-game ratio in their opening matches of the season than Chelsea (2.10). The Blues have won 19 and drawn six of their 30 previous season openers, winning their last two against Brighton in 2020-21 and Crystal Palace in 2021-22.
● Everton have won four of their last six Premier League home games (D1 L1), twice as many as they had in their previous 10 at Goodison Park (W2 D1 L7). Their only defeat in this run was against Brentford in May, while it includes a 1-0 victory against Chelsea.
● Chelsea have lost just four of their 28 Premier League away games under Thomas Tuchel (W18 D6), with all of these defeats coming by a margin of just one goal. However, one of those losses (and the most recent one) was at Frank Lampard’s Everton in May.
● Everton beat Chelsea 1-0 in May, meaning Frank Lampard could become the first manager to win consecutive Premier League games against the Blues having previously managed them in the competition. The only former Blues boss to win consecutive home Premier League games against them is José Mourinho, doing so in April 2017 and February 2018 with Manchester United.
● Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in Everton’s opening league match in each of the last two seasons. The last player to do so in three consecutive campaigns for the Toffees was Alan Ball, who did so in 1966-67, 1967-68 and 1968-69.
● New Chelsea signing Raheem Sterling is one of 10 players to have scored a hat-trick on the opening weekend of a Premier League campaign, doing so against West Ham in 2019-20. Meanwhile, coming into 2022-23, only Aston Villa (25) have had more different players score on their Premier League debut for them than the Blues (24).