PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games with stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action starts at 12.30pm with TOTTENHAM v WOLVES.
TOTTENHAM V WOLVES
12.30pm We have another blockbuster weekend in the Premier League! No doubt the highlight on BETDAQ Betting Exchange will be Monday Night Football as Manchester United and Liverpool clash, but we have a cracking weekend to enjoy first. We start with Spurs hosting Wolves after a dramatic 2-2 draw with Chelsea last weekend. Conte and Tuchel provided a lot of entertainment at the end of the game, and I have to say it’s absolutely fantastic to see a bit of needle return to football. It’s such a shame that Manchester City and Liverpool are so friendly together – you want a bit of passion and fight in these clashes. That’s why everyone looks back at the 90’s with such fondness. After that buzz getting a result in the 96th minute, Spurs have to get the job done here. They can’t afford to be dropping points in games like this with home advantage. Given the transfer window Chelsea have had, it does look like Spurs could overtake them into third, and who knows – with Liverpool opening the season with two draws maybe they could challenge for that second spot. Spurs games have been very entertaining so far – we’ve had nine goals in two games! Wolves have been less entertaining with only one goal scored from their two games, they started with a 2-1 loss to Leeds and then could only draw 0-0 with Fulham last weekend.
When I clicked into the relegation market at the start of the season, I was surprised to see Wolves trading so short. I can understand the price in the sense that they finished last season terribly and they have lost their “solidness” at the back. They used to grind out results and challenge for European spots, now they concede too many goals to do that. It has to be a massive worry for Wolves fans to see Fulham create a higher xG figure against them last weekend, especially with Wolves having home advantage. They would have felt a little unlucky to lose to Leeds because a draw would have been a fair result, but there’s no excuses for the Fulham performance. Spurs aren’t a side that you could trust with a Max Bet, even under Conte, but they are too big here at 1.4. I’m very happy to start the weekend with a very confident bet on them, and I couldn’t put anyone off including them in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Tottenham to beat Wolves at 1.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotWol
● Tottenham have lost four of their last seven home league games against Wolves (W2 D1), as many as they had in their first 38 home league meetings with them (W27 D7).
● Since Wolves were promoted back to the Premier League in 2018, at no side have they won more away league games than they have against Tottenham (3). Indeed, four of their five Premier League victories against Spurs overall have come in London.
● Tottenham have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League games (W9 D3), having lost five of their eight before this run. Spurs have netted 33 goals in these games, while shipping just eight in return.
● Wolves are winless in their last nine Premier League games (D3 L6), their longest streak without a top-flight victory since a run of 17 between February 2012 and August 2018.
● Tottenham Hotspur have scored 999 home Premier League goals and could become the fifth team to score 1,000 on home soil, after Man Utd, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea. The goals have been split between three stadiums – White Hart Lane (812), Wembley (65) and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (122).
● Wolves mustered just one shot on target in their goalless draw with Fulham last time out, with that effort coming in the fourth minute of the match. Meanwhile, Tottenham have had more shots on target than any other Premier League side this season (13).
● Tottenham have conceded first in both of their Premier League games this season, coming back to beat Southampton and draw with Chelsea. The last time they conceded first but avoided defeat in three consecutive Premier League games was in October 2010, beating Aston Villa and Fulham before drawing with Everton.
● Harry Kane has scored 184 goals for Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League. His next strike will see him become the outright top scorer for a single club in the competition’s history (currently level with Sergio Agüero at Man City).
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has scored more Premier League goals in 2022 than any other player (15). However, the Korean has faced Wolves without ever scoring more often than any other opponent in the competition (7).
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have won just 29% of their Premier League games without Raúl Jiménez in the starting lineup (12/41), compared to 41% when he does start (46/113). The Mexican has also scored in all three of Wolves’ wins against Tottenham since 2018.
CRYSTAL PALACE V ASTON VILLA
3pm We have four games kicking off at 3pm, and we start with Crystal Palace hosting Aston Villa. We actually have four cracking markets from the 3pm games – they all look very competitive betting heats and I’m sure there will be a lot of different opinions on the prices! Crystal Palace got their first result of the season on Monday night away to Liverpool, fair to say that was an expected point after being brushed aside by Arsenal on the opening weekend. Obviously the red card for Nunez played a big role in that, but credit to Crystal Palace – Liverpool gave them a chance and they took it. Aston Villa also collected their first points of the season last weekend with a 2-1 win over Everton. That was a big win for them, although I was very happy with the lay because I don’t rate Villa this season. They were very poor on the opening weekend against Bournemouth, and although they managed to grind out a win at home to Everton, they still conceded an xG of 2.01. Villa have put in two average performances in my opinion – that was a high xG figure to concede to Everton – they only managed 1.2 on average last season. I still feel Villa will struggle this season, but they aren’t even close enough to go down – they will hang around in 14th in my opinion.
We have the most open market of the day here, and I’m happy to take the 2.6 on Crystal Palace. I know they were well beaten by Arsenal on the opening weekend, but they will create more than Aston Villa here. From the two opening games of the season, Palace have performed much better and against way better class opposition too. Obviously we could see a very close game here, Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.78 and I can see why the market expects a low scoring game. However, Palace have created enough chances to score goals here and Villa haven’t exactly sat back in their games. I think you can make the case for Over 2.5 goals here, but for my best bet I can’t see past Palace. Perhaps Villa can change my view on them over their next few games – but I’ll continue to judge them on their figures and they don’t make good reading.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Crystal Palace to beat Aston Villa at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryAst
● Crystal Palace have only picked up four points in their last five Premier League matches against Aston Villa (W1 D1 L3), with their one win in this run coming in May 2021 (3-2 at Selhurst Park).
● Following a 2-1 away win at Crystal Palace last season, Aston Villa are looking to win consecutive away league matches against the Eagles for the first time.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2013, nine of Crystal Palace’s 10 league goals against Aston Villa have been scored in the final 20 minutes of games.
● Aston Villa have lost 16 of their last 22 away Premier League matches in London (W4 D2). They lost five of their six in the capital last season, although the exception was a 2-1 win at Crystal Palace.
● Crystal Palace’s opening day defeat against Arsenal ended a six-game unbeaten Premier League run for the Eagles at Selhurst Park, a run in which they kept five consecutive clean sheets.
● Aston Villa have won six of their 14 Premier League away games under Steven Gerrard (43%), compared to just five of their 15 home games (33%). Indeed, Gerrard has the best away win rate of any permanent Aston Villa manager in the Premier League.
● Since the start of the 2019-20 campaign, Aston Villa striker Danny Ings has scored the first goal in more different Premier League games than any other player (20).
● Wilfried Zaha has scored nine goals in his last 15 Premier League appearances, with his last four goals being worth seven points to Crystal Palace.
● Ollie Watkins has assisted both of Aston Villa’s Premier League goals this season, already matching his assist tally from the whole of last season. Overall, he’s been involved in seven goals in his last 10 league starts for the Villans (4 goals, 3 assists), having a hand in over half of Villa’s goals in these games (7/13).
● After completing 61 passes between each other in their defeat against Arsenal (the most of any pair on MD1), Crystal Palace defenders Joachim Andersen and Marc Guéhi managed just two passes to each other against Liverpool last time out.
EVERTON V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm It’s very early days in the season, but this game could have an impact on the relegation battle. At the moment, Bournemouth are the only side trading odds on to go down this season but you have Nottingham Forest, Southampton, Fulham, Everton and Leeds not far away. A win for either side here would obviously be massive, and it will be interesting to see how Everton deal with Forest given they have home advantage. The jury is definitely out on Everton this season – they were so poor last season and only barely stayed up. Their squad has largely stayed the same and they haven’t improved their quality. To be honest, we could see a similar season to last season in the sense that they hang around the relegation battle but in the end are too good to go down. They have started the season with two losses, but you can forgive anyone in the bottom half losing to Chelsea and although they lost last weekend to Aston Villa they did create an xG of over 2.0. Nottingham Forest also created an xG of over 2.0 last weekend when beating West Ham 1-0. That was a very entertaining game that could have had five or more goals, but Forest recorded their opening win! As I said last weekend, their home form will be very important for them staying up this season.
For me, this is definitely a game for small stakes. Everton aren’t a side to trust at the moment, and you can see them having another very difficult season. I don’t know what it is about Frank Lampard in the press conferences, but he just doesn’t come across confident in his side! Maybe that will change as the season goes on though. From a Nottingham Forest point of view, they played well at home against West Ham but they were very poor away from home to Newcastle on the opening weekend. They finished that game with an xG of just 0.32. As I said last week, their home form is going to be massively important but they can’t perform that bad away from home each week. This is an interesting game to see where both sides stand this season, but it doesn’t scream back either side. I can see a very cagey affair here, and a small bet on Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 is recommended.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveNot
● This is the first meeting between Everton and Nottingham Forest since January 1999 in the Premier League, with Forest picking up their first win under Ron Atkinson in a 1-0 victory at Goodison Park.
● Nottingham Forest have only won eight of their 56 away top-flight matches against Everton (14%), although two of those have come in the Premier League era in 1994 and 1999.
● Everton have kept six clean sheets in their 10 Premier League games against Nottingham Forest, their highest percentage (60%) against any opponent they’ve faced 10+ times in the competition. However, the Toffees have lost each of the four games in which they’ve conceded against Forest.
● Everton have lost seven of their last 10 home Premier League games against newly promoted clubs (W2 D1), losing the last two against Watford and Brentford last season. Before this run, they’d won 10 in a row at Goodison Park between April 2016 and November 2018.
● Everton have lost both their Premier League games so far this season, but haven’t lost each of their opening three matches in a league campaign since 1990-91.
● In a run going back to May 1997, Nottingham Forest have lost 15 of their last 21 Premier League away games (W4 D2). However, one of those victories came at Everton in January 1999.
● Nottingham Forest have faced more shots (42) and have the highest expected goals against tally (4.03) in the Premier League so far this season. Forest are also averaging the fewest passes per game so far this term (291).
● Everton boss Frank Lampard won neither of his two league games against Nottingham Forest while Derby manager in the Championship in 2018-19 (D1 L1), failing to score in both games. Forest are one of only two teams he’s faced in league football and not seen his teams score, along with Blackburn Rovers (two games, no goals).
● After netting three goals in his first four Premier League games for Everton, Demarai Gray has scored just twice more in his last 32 appearances for the club. He’s had just three shots in his two games this season (1.5 per game), after averaging 1.9 last season (65 shots in 34 games).
● Taiwo Awoniyi scored Nottingham Forest’s winner against West Ham in his first ever Premier League start. The only player to score in his first two Premier League starts for the club is Stan Collymore, in August 1994.
FULHAM V BRENTFORD
3pm Brentford stole all the headlines in the Premier League last Saturday with a 4-0 hammering of Manchester United. Whatever you want to say about Manchester United at the moment, you have to give immense credit to Brentford for the way they went about their business. They clearly targeted some areas of the pitch and had great success. To be 4-0 up at half-time was an incredible performance, even against a poor United side. That’s two entertaining games for Brentford already this season as they drew 2-2 with Leicester on the opening weekend. As I said that week, they have been a breath of fresh air to the Premier League – they play an excellent attacking brand of football and it’s nice to see them getting rewarded. Christian Eriksen must have been thinking why did he leave at half-time last week! This is another very interesting market kicking off at 3pm – Brentford have had two superb results but they come into this game as underdogs. Fulham are trading 2.54 to get their first win over the season, and although they have played some nice football in their opening two games I’m not sure I’d have them that short here.
Fulham would have been delighted to pick up a point at home to Liverpool on the opening weekend. That was a pure bonus, and although they couldn’t beat Wolves last weekend they would have been delighted with their performance. The game finished 0-0, but they created an xG of 1.7 and generally played better than Wolves. For a team that were one of the favourites to go back down, and still are by the way, you’d have to be pleased with their start. These are the type of games they have to be successful in if they want to stay up however. From a value point of view, I just can’t get away from the Fulham lay here at 2.54. I expected a more open market than that – Brentford are excellent going forward, and they have started the season bang in form in front of goal too. I fully expect to see Brentford make the 2.54 seem too short here.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Fulham to beat Brentford at 2.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulBre
● This is the first ever meeting between Fulham and Brentford in the English top-flight, becoming the 1,445th different fixture to be played in the top division.
● Brentford have only lost one of their last 19 away games against Fulham in all competitions (W8 D10), a 1- 0 defeat in the third-tier in April 1990, and are unbeaten in their last 11 there (W5 D6).
● Fulham are on a run of 24 Premier League London derbies without a win (D5 L19) since a 2-1 home win over West Ham United in January 2014. In top-flight history, only Crystal Palace between August 1969 and March 1973 (31 games) have had a longer run of London derbies without a win.
● Fulham have drawn both of their Premier League games so far this season – only once have they drawn each of their first three in a top-flight campaign, doing so in 2010-11.
● Brentford have won eight of their 13 Premier League games since the start of March (D2 L3), with only Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham averaging more points per game in the top-flight in that time than the Bees (2 – 26 points from 13 games).
● Only Bournemouth (33.8%) have had a lower average possession figure than Fulham (36.6%) in the Premier League this season – the Cottagers had the second highest average possession figure in the Championship last season (60.7%).
● Fulham have been awarded a penalty in both of their Premier League games this season, with Aleksandar Mitrovic scoring against Liverpool before having his effort against Wolves saved. Only two teams have ever had a penalty in each of their first three games of a Premier League campaign – Chelsea in 2012-13 and Manchester United in 2019-20.
● Fulham forward Aleksandar Mitrovic has played in more Premier League London derbies without ever winning one than any other player (17 – D2 L15). He’s also netted just once in these 17 games, going 15 without a goal since scoring against Spurs at Wembley Stadium in August 2018.
● Ivan Toney has been involved in 12 goals in his last 13 Premier League appearances for Brentford (7 goals, 5 assists), setting up two goals in the Bees’ 4-0 win over Manchester United last time out.
● Josh Dasilva has scored in both of Brentford’s Premier League games this season, with Ollie Watkins the last player to score in each of the Bees’ first three league games in a campaign (2018-19). Dasilva is also looking to become the first player to score from outside the box in three consecutive Premier League appearances since Jordan Henderson in March 2015.
LEICESTER V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm We finish the 3pm games with a fascinating fixture. If you look at the relegation market, you will see Leicester trading around 8.0. That’s a short price for a club who were fighting for a Top Four finish not so long ago. I suppose the reality is now that they have had their golden time – last season they were very poor in mid-table, and when you look at their figures you see that they actually over-performed so things can get worse. They seem to be the classic case of “too good to go down” to me, but you never know – they might get dragged into a relegation fight at some stage of the season. Southampton are definitely in a relegation fight in my opinion – they were a lot of football fans “dark horse” to go down this season and you can fully understand why. Their odds have come in a lot since the start of the season, and I can see them struggling. It’s so, so early in the season but we actually have plenty of games today that can have a big impact down the bottom of the table. The Saints managed a 2-2 draw last weekend with Leeds, but they conceded a higher xG figure than they created and I feel they will concede plenty of goals this season.
If this was anyone else, I’d probably be all over the home win here. Southampton set up like a side you want to take on at the moment. I know they had to play Spurs on the opening weekend, but they’ve conceded six goals in two games and their xG figures are poor too. Leicester have also conceded six however – they lost 4-2 to Arsenal last weekend and drew 2-2 with Brentford. Leicester might not challenge for Europe anymore, but they are entertaining! I think Leicester’s main problems this season will be going forward, but let’s see how they get on here. The market has the home side as odds on favourites, and I wouldn’t be keen to back Leicester at odds on at the moment; even against a very poor Southampton side. There’s going to be a host of mistakes at the back from both sides in this game, and the value call is Over 2.5 goals at 1.69. It’s just hard not to see goals given all the chances these two concede.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiSou
● Leicester are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games against Southampton (W2 D2) – only once have they had a longer run without defeat against Saints in their league history (6 between 1953 and 1968).
● Southampton have won two of their last four away league games against Leicester, though they have lost their last two. They’d only won two of their previous 16 league visits to the Foxes before this run (D5 L9).
● Since Brendan Rodgers’ first game in charge of Leicester in March 2019, the Foxes have both scored and conceded in more different Premier League games than any other side (74).
● Leicester have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League home games (W5 D4), going down 2-1 against Everton in May.
● Southampton have won just one of their last 14 Premier League games (D3 L10), winning 1-0 against Arsenal in April. Away from home, Saints are winless in eight league games (D3 L5) since a 3-2 win at Spurs in February.
● Both Leicester and Southampton have conceded six Premier League goals this season, with no side shipping more. They’ve both had defeats where they’ve conceded four goals, as well as both being involved in a 2-2 draw.
● Leicester’s Ayoze Pérez has scored nine goals in 13 Premier League appearances against Southampton, three times as many as he’s netted against another opponent.
● Against no side has Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse scored more Premier League goals than he has against Leicester (4), with three of his four against them coming from the penalty spot.
● Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has been involved in nine goals in 15 Premier League appearances against Southampton, scoring six and assisting three. However, only one of his six strikes against them has come at the King Power Stadium.
● Leicester’s James Maddison has either scored or assisted a goal in each of his last six Premier League appearances, scoring five and assisting four. Since the start of last season, no English midfielder has been involved in more Premier League goals than Maddison (22 – 13 goals, 9 assists).
BOURNEMOUTH V ARSENAL
5.30pm We finish a very interesting day with Bournemouth hosting Arsenal. At the moment, Bournemouth are the only side trading odds on to get relegated this season, but they would have been delighted to beat Aston Villa on the opening weekend. Given they had to play Manchester City last weekend and now Arsenal this weekend, I think they would have taken three points after three games if they were offered. That means anything in this game is a bonus really, and all they can try to do is put Arsenal under as much pressure as possible and see what happens. We all know things are never straightforward for Arsenal away from home; however they have started the season in impressive form with two wins from two games. Clearly Arsenal fans are getting ahead of themselves already, but in fairness the club have given them plenty of hope with six goals in two games. They absolutely hammered Leicester last weekend too, and Bournemouth are the type of side that they usually do very well against. How much time and space Bournemouth give them here is of course up for debate, but usually Arsenal run through these weaker sides. Another impressive win for Arsenal will have the bandwagon in overdrive!
From a betting point of view, the big question about this game is can you trust Arsenal enough away from home to back them at 1.46. I know Bournemouth have just come up from the Championship, but I feel that price is simply too short on Arsenal away from home. We’ve saw it time and time again – Arsenal start the season well or go on a good run, the fans get ahead of themselves, they have a setback and it all comes crashing down. Perhaps it’s not a price to lay given the obvious gulf in class between the sides, but I definitely wouldn’t include it in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend. Bournemouth haven’t been afraid to attack, and while Arsenal are winning they are conceding chances too. Palace could have easily scored in their opening game this season, and without much value on offer in the match odds market I’m happy to back Over 2.5 goals here at 1.79. What an interesting day ahead in the Premier League, and hopefully it’s dramatic too!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouArs
● Bournemouth have only won one of their 10 Premier League games against Arsenal (D2 L7), a 2-1 victory in January 2018 with goals from Callum Wilson and Jordon Ibe.
● Arsenal have won nine of their 12 matches against Bournemouth in all competitions (75%); among teams they’ve faced at least 10 times, they only have a better win ratio against Reading (100%, won 14/14) and Glossop North End (86%, won 12/14).
● Bournemouth are unbeaten in 11 home league games (W7 D4), winning the last three without conceding. They’ve not won four in a row at home while keeping a clean sheet each time since April 2010 in League Two.
● Arsenal are looking to win all of their opening three Premier League games in a campaign for the first time since 2004-05. Meanwhile, the Gunners could also win their first two away league games without conceding a goal for the first time since 1993-94.
● Arsenal have named the same starting XI in both of their opening two Premier League games so far this season. The last time they did so in their opening three fixtures was in their last title winning campaign of 2003-04.
● Bournemouth have had fewer shots than any other side in the Premier League so far this season (10), while only Nottingham Forest (42) have faced more than the Cherries so far (34).
● None of Arsenal’s last 19 Premier League games have been drawn (W13 L6). It’s the longest ongoing run without a draw among sides currently in the competition, while only between January and October 2018 (25) have the Gunners had a longer run without one.
● Kieffer Moore has scored in each of his last three home league games for Bournemouth – twice in his English league career has he scored in four successive home appearances, doing so in October 2017 with Rotherham and March 2021 with Cardiff.
● Gabriel Martinelli has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League starts for Arsenal (3 goals, 3 assists). A goal in this game would make him the second youngest player to score in each of Arsenal’s first three Premier League games in a season, after José Antonio Reyes in 2004-05.
● Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus has been involved in 10 goals in his last seven Premier League appearances (7 goals, 3 assists), having a hand in all four of the Gunners’ goals in their win against Leicester last week.