PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games. It’s a bumper afternoon – starting with the Merseyside Derby at 12.30pm as Everton host Liverpool. Each match previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
EVERTON V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm A huge Saturday in the Premier League! We have a bumper eight fixtures on BETDAQ Betting Exchange to enjoy, and plenty of fascinating markets too. You can tell the Champions League starts next week with a whopping eight fixtures today – we pretty won’t see a busier day in the Premier League until the final day of the season when everyone kicks off at the same time. We kick off the action with the Merseyside Derby, which is a fantastic way to start the weekend. There is always a bit of spice to this fixture, however it’s fair to say the gulf in class between the sides has got almost too big in recent years. Liverpool have just been on a different planet to Everton; however Everton always give a good account of themselves in this fixture. They lost both meetings last season, but they got a result in the three meetings prior to last season. I suppose that also just reflects on just how poor Everton were last season – even in the Merseyside Derby they were miles off the pace. I can see the same thing happening here – Everton will come into the game with plenty of passion and the fans will get behind them, but that’s just not good enough to even get close to this Liverpool side.
Everton managed to get another draw midweek with a 1-1 result away to Leeds. In fairness to Everton, their last three performances haven’t been too bad. They have created xG figures of 1.56, 1.72 and 1.26. They haven’t been good enough to win over course and they are still conceding chances, but at the moment I would suggest that they aren’t as bad as they were last season, but whether or not they are good enough to stay up is another thing. They are probably “too good to go down” but will be involved in the relegation battle – I think that sums the club up at the moment. The market is expecting Merseyside to be red after this game with Liverpool trading 1.41 at the time of writing. I know Liverpool had a poor start to the season results wise, but they were unlucky to only draw with Fulham and Crystal Palace. It’s been a strange season though, and were pretty average in the first half against Newcastle too. They have still been creating good xG figures and given how many chances Everton concede at the back, I just don’t see how Everton stop Liverpool from scoring here. I feel Liverpool will cover the handicap, and the 1.99 -1.5 goals is worth a small bet here. I would have had a larger stake, but the Newcastle game worried me a little midweek.
The Striker Says:
One point win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Everton at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveLiv
MATCH STATS
● Everton have won just one of their last 23 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D12 L10), a 2-0 victory at Anfield in February 2021 under Carlo Ancelotti.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League away games against Everton (W3 D8) since a 2-0 loss in October 2010. Following a 4-1 win in this exact fixture last season, they’re looking for back-to-back victories at Goodison Park for the first time since a run of three between 2007 and 2009.
● Only Chelsea vs Manchester United (25) has finished as a draw more often than Everton vs Liverpool (24) in Premier League history, while the Merseyside derby has seen more red cards than any other fixture (22).
● Everton have drawn their last three Premier League games, last drawing four in a row in October/November 2012 which included a 2-2 home draw with Liverpool.
● After failing to win their opening three Premier League games this season (D2 L1), Liverpool have won their last two, including a 90th minute winner from Fabio Carvalho against Newcastle. The Reds have scored 40 winning goals in the 90th minute in the Premier League, 12 more than any other side.
● Liverpool have yet to win on the road in the Premier League this season (D1 L1), having won seven of their last eight away from home in 2021-22. They haven’t failed to win any of their first three away league games in a single campaign since 2010-11 (first four under Roy Hodgson).
● Everton are averaging five shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, their highest since 2016-17 (also 5) and up from their average of 3.6 in the competition last term.
● Everton boss Frank Lampard has lost all four of his Premier League meetings with Liverpool’s Jürgen Klopp, with his sides conceding at least two goals each time (11 in total).
● Three of Mohamed Salah’s four Premier League goals for Liverpool against Everton have come at Goodison Park. Only Michael Owen (4) has scored more away goals for the Reds against the Toffees in the competition.
● Following goals against Brentford and Leeds in August, Anthony Gordon is looking to become the youngest Everton player to score in three consecutive Premier League appearances (21y 191d) since Romelu Lukaku in October 2013 (20y 145d) and youngest Englishman since Francis Jeffers in September 2000 (19y 224d).
BRENTFORD V LEEDS
3pm We have a very busy afternoon with six games kicking off at 3pm, and we start with Brentford hosting Leeds. Both of these sides were in action on Tuesday night with Brentford drawing 1-1 with Crystal Palace and as discussed above Leeds recording the same score line against Everton. The Leeds v Everton game was quite close and a draw was a fair result, but Brentford really should have beaten Crystal Palace. They finished the game with an xG of 2.14 and outplayed Palace. If you’re a Brentford fan you’re probably sick of hearing that – how many times now have they played well without winning? Their performances at home last season were so good compared to their result it was almost a joke! You can’t really knock the amount of chances and goals Brentford have created this season – their xG figures have been 0.97, 1.75, 1.66, 2.57 and 2.14. That’s been a very consistent level and they have played a range of sides too. Leeds have definitely started the season positively, but it’s hard to see past Brentford here. They have been playing some very impressive football, and we all know that Leeds aren’t great at the back either so they will have plenty of chances in front of goal too.
For me the biggest question about this game is choosing between Brentford at 2.16 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.79. This game does scream goals on paper, and it’s hard to see the game not being very open. Leeds have had plenty of action in their games this season and their game midweek against Everton was the most quiet when you look at the figures. I know they “only” lost 1-0 to Brighton last weekend but the xG figures show that there should have been more goals in that one and it was quite an open game. If you look at Brentford, there has been a tonne of action in their games. Both Teams To Score is also 1.67 which is a very tempting bet as well – to be honest I couldn’t put anyone off all three bets, but for me the best value is with Over 2.5 goals at 1.79. All I see is goals in this game, and it should be an end-to-end entertaining affair.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreLed
MATCH STATS
● Brentford are winless in their last four league games against Leeds (D2 L2), including a 2-1 defeat in this exact fixture on the final day last season.
● Leeds scored a 90th minute goal in each meeting with Brentford in the Premier League last season, with Patrick Bamford earning them a 2-2 draw at home, and Jack Harrison scoring the winner in a 2-1 away win.
● Leeds’ 2-1 win in this exact fixture last season ended a 10-game winless away league run against Brentford (D4 L6). They’ve never won consecutive away games against the Bees in their league history.
● Leeds have won two of their last four league games in London (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 28 visits (D6 L20). The Whites are looking to win consecutive league games in the capital for the first time since beating Leyton Orient and Millwall in April 2008 in League One.
● Brentford have lost just one of their last seven home league games (W4 D2), although that was to Leeds on the final day of 2021-22 (1-2). The Bees have kept five clean sheets in those seven games, conceding just three goals.
● Brentford have scored in each of their last eight Premier League games – it’s their longest scoring streak in the competition, and longest in the top-flight since a run of 24 between October 1938 and March 1939.
● Leeds have conceded five goals in their five Premier League games this season (one per game) – they’d conceded five in their opening game last season, and averaged 2.1 goals conceded across the whole campaign.
● After their game against Everton, Leeds had conceded more fouls than any other side in the Premier League this season (65). They’ve committed at least 10 fouls in each of their last 20 Premier League matches, the longest such run since Brighton did so in 23 consecutive games between August 2018 and January 2019.
● Vitaly Janelt has been involved in Brentford’s last two Premier League goals, scoring their equaliser against Everton, and assisting Yoane Wissa’s leveller against Crystal Palace. It’s the first time he’s been involved in a goal in consecutive Premier League appearances.
● Ivan Toney has scored 49 goals in 95 appearances for Brentford in all competitions, at least 32 more than any other player at the club since he joined in 2020. The last player to net 50 for the Bees was Clayton Donaldson (53 between 2011 and 2014).
CHELSEA V WEST HAM
3pm Two London Derbies for West Ham within a week as they meet Chelsea next! This will be one of the major talking points of the day, and all eyes will be on Chelsea to see can they bounce back to winning ways after losing 2-1 to Southampton midweek. I have to say I was delighted to land my lay on Chelsea midweek – Southampton definitely showed us enough in the game against Manchester United last weekend that they could get a result, and given that Southampton have been in the relegation discussion this season, that was a massive result for them. It causes more problems for Tuchel at Chelsea however, and it has pretty much been a nightmare start now. Even if you leave out the dropped points against Spurs, they have been basically “bullied” twice now away from home by Leeds and Southampton. That’s not a good sign and although they probably deserved a draw against Southampton, they were hammered by Leeds. At the start of the season I felt we’d see Chelsea and Spurs swap places in 3rd and 4th, given the impressive start by Arsenal you’d have to be very worried about Chelsea’s place in the Top Four now.
It’s early days in the season of course, but things are so competitive you just can’t afford to be losing games to the likes of Leeds and Southampton if you have big plans. Just look at Liverpool’s start – it’s hard to see them making up that gap on Manchester City even so early in the season. West Ham have obviously two tough games back-to-back here, and they would have been pleased to finally get a win under their belt last weekend against Aston Villa. West Ham have been a little disappointing this season – I know they were unlucky to lose against Nottingham Forest and that probably makes their record look a little worse than it should be, but I just look at the market here and feel Chelsea are too short again. I’m going to keep stakes to a minimum here because Chelsea are at home, and they also are a level above the Hammers, but you can clearly see Chelsea are struggling at the moment and I’m happy to take them on again especially at prices like 1.54.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Chelsea to beat West Ham at 1.54 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheWhm
MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have lost just one of their last 16 home league games against West Ham (W11 D4), going down 1- 0 in November 2019.
● West Ham have won three of their last six Premier League games against Chelsea (L3), as many as they had in their previous 26 (D6 L17).
● Chelsea have lost twice already in the Premier League this season (W2 D1) – only once in the history of the competition have the Blues lost as many as three of their first six matches, doing so in the 2015-16 campaign (W2 D1 L3).
● Chelsea have won only six of their last 16 Premier League home games (D8 L2), having won six of their eight at Stamford Bridge before this. In this run they’ve dropped 13 points from leading positions, as many as they had in their previous 44 home league games.
● West Ham have scored just twice in their opening five Premier League matches this season, their fewest at this stage of a league season since 1994-95 (1). The Hammers have converted just 3.4% of their efforts at goal (2/59).
● Thomas Tuchel has won 69% of his Premier League London derby matches in charge of Chelsea (11/16), with only Maurizio Sarri having a higher win rate in such games for the Blues (70%). However, three of Tuchel’s four defeats in Premier League London derbies have come at Stamford Bridge, with only Glenn Hoddle and Claudio Ranieri (4 each) losing more at home with the Blues.
● West Ham manager David Moyes has won none of his 17 Premier League away games against Chelsea (D7 L10). Only Moyes himself has played more away against an opponent without ever winning (18 vs Arsenal).
● Raheem Sterling has scored three goals in his last two Premier League games for Chelsea – he’s also been involved in more Premier League goals against West Ham than he has any other opponent (14 – 8 goals, 6 assists).
● Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling has scored against West Ham at four different venues in the Premier League (Anfield, Upton Park, Etihad Stadium, London Stadium), and could become the fourth player to score against the Hammers at 5+ different grounds after Andrew Cole (6), Gary Speed (5) and James Beattie (5).
● Since his Premier League debut in February 2020, only Michail Antonio (29) and Jarrod Bowen (21) have more league goals for West Ham than Tomás Soucek (19). He is looking to become the third Czech player to score 20 Premier League goals, after Patrik Berger (38) and Milan Baros (28).
NEWCASTLE V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We have another two teams that were in action on Tuesday night here as Newcastle host Crystal Palace. As I mentioned above, Crystal Palace draw 1-1 with Brentford but they were lucky to get that draw as they conceded an xG of 2.14. Newcastle had to settle for a 1-1 draw away to Wolves but they were the better side and probably should have won the game. They finished with an xG of 2.10 and in general Wolves have been poor this season – they seem there for the taking. That’s the breaks in football though, because Newcastle were very lucky to pick up a 0-0 draw in their away game prior to that against Brighton; they conceded an xG of 1.97 and were completely outplayed. Apart from that game against Brighton though, Newcastle have been pretty impressive this season. You can clearly see that they are making progress and given the money they have behind them now, they should continue in the right direction. I don’t see them challenging for the European spots this season, but perhaps next season.
Crystal Palace have had a tough start to the season given they have had to play Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City in their opening five fixtures. They got an unexpected draw away to Liverpool though and they were very impressive against Aston Villa. You have to remember though how poor Aston Villa have looked this season, and then also consider that Brentford should have beaten Palace midweek too. Palace are a reasonably solid side, but Newcastle are a level above at the moment in my opinion. You can see by looking at their xG figures that they are playing better football and I’d have Newcastle odds on here. The 2.06 isn’t a bet to go mad about so we will control the stakes, but it’s definitely a price worth backing. Newcastle have created a lot of chances this season and if both sides play at a similar level as they have been doing, then this game is there for Newcastle to win. I wouldn’t put anyone off including Newcastle in your Acca today either!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Newcastle to beat Crystal Palace at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewCrl
MATCH STATS
● Newcastle are looking to win consecutive league games against Crystal Palace for the first time since October 2017, following their 1-0 win in this exact fixture in April last season.
● After winning just two of their first 17 away league games against Newcastle between 1964 and 2017, Crystal Palace have now won two of their last four visits to St James’ Park (L2).
● After a 3-3 draw in August 2014, Newcastle have only scored more than one goal once in their subsequent 13 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (W5 D4 L4), netting 11 goals in total in this run.
● Newcastle have only lost one of their last 12 Premier League games at St James’ Park (W8 D3), a 0-1 defeat to Liverpool in April of last season. Indeed, the Magpies have won eight of their last 10 at home in the league (D1 L1), as many as their previous 37 beforehand (D15 L14).
● Crystal Palace have picked up one point from their last three away league games, despite opening the scoring (and leading at half-time) in each one. No team in Premier League history has led at half-time and yet failed to win four consecutive away games.
● Crystal Palace have dropped 10 points from leading positions over their last seven Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 28. They’ve dropped seven already this season, failing to win any of their three games in which they’ve scored first (D2 L1).
● Callum Wilson has been involved in four goals in his three Premier League games against Crystal Palace for Newcastle (2 goals, 2 assists), having registered no goals and one assist in eight appearances against the Eagles while at Bournemouth.
● Newcastle are averaging 13 shots-per-game in the Premier League this season, their highest in a single campaign since 2013-14 (15.2). Meanwhile, their average of five shots on target per game is their highest in the competition since 2002-03 (5.6).
● After netting in his first Premier League appearance for Newcastle United against Liverpool, Alexander Isak is looking to become only the second Magpies player to net in his first two games for the club in the competition, after Les Ferdinand in August 1995.
● Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored 13 goals in 20 Premier League games so far in 2022, as many as he had in his previous 45 appearances. It’s his best return in a single calendar year in the top-flight.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm As I said above, it’s early days in the season but this is already a massive relegation battle. Nottingham Forest host Bournemouth with both sides under immense pressure. I have to say I was shocked this week when I saw the news that Scott Parker had got sacked. I know the 9-0 was an embarrassing score line against Liverpool and they had been hammered by Manchester City and Arsenal too, but they are the three best sides in the Premier League at the moment. Arsenal might not finish in the top three by the end of the season, but they have started the season on fire. I really don’t think those results justified his sacking; Bournemouth wouldn’t have been expected to get anything from those games. The main driver of the sacking was more than likely his comments after the Liverpool result that the board hasn’t backed him with signings and the squad isn’t good enough. I suppose you can compare that situation to the situation at Nottingham Forest where they have signed an incredible amount of players. It’s definitely harsh on Scott Parker whatever way you look at it, and it will be interesting to see how the side performs here against a side more at their level.
Nottingham Forest have had a difficult run of fixtures too, they had to play Spurs last weekend and then Manchester City midweek. Their results against those clubs won’t decide their fate this season, and they have done very well to pick up a win against West Ham and a draw against Everton. Both times they conceded a bigger xG figure than they created, but their job this season will be to grind out points and just stay in the Premier League then they can build on that. Without looking at the odds, I was definitely edging towards Nottingham Forest here because they do look marginally better. Let’s not forget Bournemouth managed a 2-0 win against Aston Villa on the opening weekend before bumping into the top clubs and I felt Forest would be favourites but we would have a reasonably close market. I wasn’t expecting to see Forest as short as 2.06 when I clicked into the market, and I’m happy to have a small lay of the home win here from a value point of view. I just expect a closer game than the odds suggest.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Nottingham Forest to beat Bournemouth at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotBou
MATCH STATS
● Nottingham Forest are winless in their last four league games against Bournemouth (D1 L3), with the Cherries one of just three teams to win home and away against Forest in the Championship last season.
● Bournemouth won 2-1 away against Nottingham Forest in the Championship last season, their first ever away league win against them (D4 L4).
● The away side has won five of the last six Premier League meetings between two promoted clubs (L1), as many as in the previous 42 such matches in the competition (D11 L26).
● After losing 0-2 to Tottenham, Nottingham Forest are looking to avoid suffering back-to-back home league defeats for what would be a first time under Steve Cooper. The Tricky Trees last lost consecutive league matches at the City Ground in September 2021 under Chris Hughton, a run of five that included a defeat to Bournemouth, while they last did so in the Premier League in March 1999 (a run of five).
● Bournemouth have lost 14 of their last 16 away Premier League games (W2), including both this season by an aggregate score of 0-13. Indeed, 13 goals conceded is the joint-most by a side in their first two away matches of a top-flight campaign, along with Stoke in 1889-90.
● When scoring at least once, Nottingham Forest have only lost one of their last 33 league games (W24 D8), going down 2-1 against Cardiff in January. They’re unbeaten in their last 16 when scoring (W12 D4).
● Bournemouth have had fewer shots (26), fewer shots on target (9) and a lower expected goals tally (1.75) than any other side in the Premier League this season.
● Nottingham Forest have faced more shots (96), more shots on target (39) and have the highest expected goals against total (11.3) of any side in the Premier League this season.
● Bournemouth’s Kieffer Moore has scored four league goals against Nottingham Forest, with three of those coming at the City Ground. Against no side has he scored more often in English league football.
● Neco Williams has had more shots (11), created more chances (9) and played more passes into the box (35) than any other Nottingham Forest player in the Premier League this season.
TOTTENHAM V FULHAM
3pm West Ham had two London Derbies this week, and now so do Spurs! After Spurs played West Ham midweek, they clash with another London club here in the shape of Fulham. Unlike midweek where Spurs started odds against to win away to West Ham, they will be fully expected to win this game. They are trading as short as 1.48 at the time of writing. I have to say, although it’s highly likely that Spurs will outclass this Fulham side just because there is a gulf in class between the sides, but Fulham have impressed me this season. You only have to look at the relegation market to see that they have impressed a lot of other football punters too as they have drifted out quite a lot. You wouldn’t discount them for the relegation discussion yet, but they are moving out of the picture. If you take the betting odds, they are about as likely to go down as the likes of Leicester and Aston Villa. Fulham were definitely lucky on Tuesday to get three points against Brighton because they conceded an xG of 2.03 but at the end of the day they have to grind out results when their only goal is to stay up.
Spurs definitely look a lot more solid under Conte, and this has allowed them to build more up front. Harry Kane has started the season in top form too, and he gave the Spurs the perfect start last weekend very early too. There’s a huge amount of positives about this Spurs side, and as I said above I can see Spurs taking that 3rd spot off Chelsea – with perhaps even Chelsea falling out this season – but from a value point of view I do feel that Spurs are a little short here at 1.48. A lot similar to the Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth game above with my thoughts here, I just fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest. A small lay on Spurs from a value point of view feels a nice play here.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Fulham at 1.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotFul
MATCH STATS
● Spurs have taken 34 points from their last 39 available against Fulham in the Premier League (W11 D1 L1), though both occasions they’ve dropped points have come in home games.
● Fulham have won just one of their last 12 away league games against Spurs (D3 L8), a 1-0 victory in March 2013. The Cottagers have netted just five goals in these 12 games, and never more than once in a match.
● Tottenham have won their last four Premier League London derbies at home, last having a longer such run between March 2009 and April 2010 (6).
● Of the 10 London clubs to have played in the Premier League, Fulham have the lowest win rate in London derbies in the competition (18.6% – 26 wins from 140 games).
● Tottenham are currently enjoying a five-game winning streak at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the Premier League, their longest such winning run at the ground. Spurs last won as many in a row at home in the league in May 2017 (14 in a row), while they are looking to win each of their first three home games from the start of a Premier League campaign for the first time since 2002-03 under Glenn Hoddle.
● Tottenham are looking to remain unbeaten in their first six Premier League games for just the third time, previously doing so in 2004-05 (finished 9th) and 2016-17 (finished 2nd).
● Fulham have eight points from five Premier League games so far this season, only earning more in 2002-03 (10) and 2012-13 (9). Their record tally after six games in the competition is 11 points, doing so in both 2002-03 and 2003-04.
● Last season’s Golden Boot winner Son Heung-min hasn’t scored with any of his 13 shots for Tottenham in the Premier League this season. He had a shot conversion rate of 26.7% in the competition last season, the second highest of any player with at least 20 attempts.
● Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic has been involved in more Premier League goals against Tottenham than he has any other opponent (5 – 3 goals, 2 assists). He’s looking to score in four consecutive Premier League games for the first time, while one more goal will make him the highest scoring Serbian in the competition’s history (currently 29, level with Savo Milosevic).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 42 goals in Premier League London derbies – one more will see him equal Thierry Henry for the most such goals in the competition’s history.
WOLVES V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm We finish the 3pm games with Wolves hosting Southampton. This is definitely a fixture that could get “lost” in all the action today, but it is very interesting from a betting point of view. Wolves have been bang average this season, and they have definitely moved into the relegation discussion too. They were lucky to pick up another draw here midweek against Newcastle where they conceded an xG of 2.10. If you look through the performances from Wolves this season, and especially towards the end of last season too, you can see why they are many football fans “dark horses” to go down. Southampton were also on a lot of peoples list as outsiders to go down this season – indeed both sides are trading around similar prices for relegation at the moment. Southampton have drifted out because they were one of the favourites to go down towards the start of the season, but they have recorded wins against Leicester and Chelsea since. That win against Chelsea was massive midweek, and they have played well too against Manchester United where they deserved a draw.
Obviously a worry here from a betting point of view is that those performances against Manchester United and Chelsea came with home advantage for the Saints, but they did beat Leicester away from home. They totally outplayed a very average Leicester side as well, and I just can’t get away from the Wolves lay here at 2.26. That looks an exceptionally short price for the way Wolves have performed this season. They have created xG figures of 0.56, 1.12, 1.14, 0.83 and 1.13. Consistent but not troubling figures – Southampton have actually played better going forward in my opinion. I would definitely class the 2.26 as Max Lay material but at the same time, I’m not sure I trust Southampton fully with a Max Bet position. Let’s be honest, there isn’t much between the sides here all that and I expect a very close game. The 2.26 lay jumps off the page here though as the best bet this afternoon.
The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Wolves to beat Southampton at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolSou
MATCH STATS
● Wolves have won four of their last five Premier League games against Southampton (D1), including each of the last three in a row. They’d only won four of their previous 19 against Saints in the top-flight before this (D5 L10).
● Southampton are winless in their last six away league games against Wolves (D3 L3), since a 6-0 victory in March 2007 in the Championship.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2018, Wolves have scored four penalty goals against Southampton – no team has scored more from the spot against a specific opponent in that time.
● Wolves have drawn each of their last three Premier League home games, including both so far this season. The last side to draw each of their opening three home matches of a Premier League campaign were Sunderland in 2014-15; Wolves themselves last did so in the top-flight in 1899-00.
● Southampton are looking to win back-to-back away games in the Premier League for the first time since June 2020 after their 2-1 win at Leicester in their last such outing. However, Saints haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 16 matches on the road in the league, their longest run without an away shutout since February 2010 (a run of 21).
● Wolves are winless in 12 Premier League games (D5 L7), the longest ongoing run of any side currently in the top-flight. They’ve scored just twice this season – both goals have been the opening goal of the game, going on to lose to Leeds and draw with Newcastle.
● Southampton have dropped more points from winning positions than any other Premier League side since Ralph Hasenhüttl took charge in December 2018 (89). However, no side has claimed more points from behind this season than Saints (7), with both of their wins and their one draw coming having conceded the first goal.
● After a run of one win in 14 Premier League games, Southampton have now won two of their last three. However, they’ve not won consecutive Premier League games without one of the wins being against a promoted side since December 2020 (vs Brighton and Sheffield United).
● Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has scored five goals in his last five Premier League games against Southampton – against no side has he netted more in the competition (also five vs Everton).
● Against Chelsea last time out, Roméo Lavia became the first player born in 2004 to score a Premier League goal, as well as becoming the youngest Belgian to score in the competition (18y 236d). He could become the first player to score more than once as an 18-year-old in the Premier League for Southampton.
ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We finish a bumper day of action with Aston Villa hosting Manchester City! I have to say I’m very interested in the situation at Aston Villa. In my opinion, any other manager would be under pressure but the UK media are happy to give Steven Gerrard an easy time of things. If you look at the xG figures since Gerrard arrived too he hasn’t improved the side. They rode a nice wave of momentum after he came in, he is a big name after all, but basically they have remained a poor side. They are your classic “too good to go down” side who will finish 14th or 15th. They look so limited this season I wouldn’t even rule out them being involved in the relegation battle at some stage, but they shouldn’t be too close to going down. The market is fully expecting a Manchester City win here with Pep Guardiola’s men trading as short as 1.37 at the time of writing. I would happily include them in any BETDAQ Multiples today at those odds, however I’m going to look around the side markets for something a little bigger in the market for my best bet. You get no prizes for tipping prices sub 1.4!
If you compare the Manchester City price to the Liverpool price today, there is only three/four ticks between them and I think I’d be much happier on City at the odds. The Merseyside Derby is always a tense enough affair, even if there is a big gulf in class between the sides. With this game, I feel it’s a question of how many goals Manchester City score rather than will they win to be honest. They have already been banging in goals for fun this season, and Haaland record his first hat-trick at the weekend in a 4-2 win over Crystal Palace. City have been playing a very open game, taking the approach of “we’ll score more than you” and that does make the goal markets interesting. Even for a side so limited going forward, you wouldn’t rule out Villa scoring at some stage here. Both Teams To Score is trading 1.81 and is probably a fair price at odds on. I expect City to hammer Villa here to be honest, and they can cover the handicap too. The 2.04 on City -1.5 goals looks a fantastic bet. Haaland banged in another hat-trick even before half-time midweek, and Aston Villa look there for the taking.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Aston Villa at 2.04 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstMci
MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa are winless in their last 11 Premier League meetings with Manchester City (D1 L10), losing each of the last seven by an aggregate score of 22-5.
● Manchester City have won 14 of their last 16 Premier League games against Aston Villa (D1 L1), with their only defeat in this run coming in September 2013 at Villa Park (2-3).
● Aston Villa have lost 15 of their last 16 Premier League games against reigning champions, with the exception being a 7-2 victory over Liverpool in October 2020. Their seven goals in that game account for almost half the goals they have scored in those 16 games (7/15).
● Against no side have Manchester City won more Premier League games than they have against Aston Villa (28), while only against Newcastle (95) have the Citizens scored more goals than they have against the Villans (90).
● Aston Villa have lost four of their opening five Premier League matches in a season for the first time since 1997-98 (also 4). Villa have only lost as many as five of their first six matches in two previous top-flight campaigns: 1919-20 and 1986-87 (both 5).
● Manchester City remain unbeaten in their last 20 away games in the Premier League (W15 D5). In the competition’s history, there have only been four occasions of a longer such run: Liverpool (21 in Feb 2020), Arsenal twice (23 in Sep 2002, 27 in Sep 2004) and Manchester United (29 in Sep 2021).
● In 2022, the only current Premier League side to lose more top-flight games than Aston Villa (13) are Everton (15). Since a run of three wins in a row in February and March, the Villans have won three of 16 league games (D3 L10).
● Manchester City have scored 19 goals in their opening five Premier League matches this season, their most ever at this stage of a league season. Only twice have they scored 20+ goals in their opening six league games, scoring 21 in 2017-18 and 24 in 2019-20, both under Pep Guardiola.
● Erling Haaland has scored nine goals in his first five Premier League appearances for Manchester City, a record for a player in their first five games in the competition. The fastest a player has scored 10 goals is six matches, set by Mick Quinn back in December 1992. He is also looking to become the first ever player to score a hat-trick in three consecutive Premier League appearances.
● Man City striker Erling Haaland has scored three goals in his two Premier League away games so far, netting twice at West Ham and once at Newcastle. Only four players have ever scored in their first three on the road in the competition – Peter Beardsley, Jürgen Klinsmann, Francesco Baiano and Alen Boksic.
