PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s matches with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. We get underway with Wolves v Man City at 12.30pm.
WOLVES V MANCHESTER CITY
12.30pm Premier League Saturday action returns this week, and while we have a shortened fixture list on BETDAQ Betting Exchange because of the arrangements with the Queen’s passing, we have three interesting games to enjoy. We start the day with Wolves hosting Manchester City – after getting their first win of the season against Southampton at the start of the month, Man City are the last team Wolves will want to face! That being said, City did struggle midweek to break down Dortmund, they will won in the end in dramatic fashion but they were going into the final ten minutes 1-0 down before the pressure told. I suppose that’s the problem with facing City these days, even when they don’t play well it’s still very difficult to stop them finding a comeback goal – especially with the talent they have on their bench. The market is reasonably confident on the away win with City trading as short as 1.36 at the time of writing – they have been starting shorter prices than this though. The reality is this should be a straightforward win for City as Wolves have been very poor this season. Wolves have been included in the relegation discussion, but they are too good to go down; however performance wise they are definitely in trouble.
That win over Southampton was massive for Wolves because they badly needed it. Performance wise, they still conceded a marginal higher xG figure than they created, but it was a much needed three points. The main problem for Wolves lately is that they have been poor at the back. When they had success it was built on being rock solid at the back and grinding out results; when they lost that they clearly struggled. They’ve had three home games so far this season against Fulham, Newcastle and Southampton. They might be unbeaten on paper but they have conceded xG figures of 1.7, 2.1 and 1.21 – all three above what they managed to create themselves. Obviously City weren’t at their best midweek, but this is a big drop in class and they can cover the handicap here. The 1.91 -1.5 goals makes a lot of appeal given the amount of chances Wolves have conceded this season, and to be fair to City they don’t play badly often. I wouldn’t be surprised if they even scored four or more here to be honest.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Wolves at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WlvMci
● Three of Wolves’ four Premier League victories over Manchester City have come in home games, beating them at Molineux in 2003-04, 2010-11 and 2019-20.
● After losing both league meetings with Wolves in 2019-20, Manchester City have won each of their last four against them by an aggregate score of 13-3.
● Wolves earned their first win in 13 Premier League games against Southampton last time out, while they’re looking to win back-to-back home league games for the first time since November 2021.
● Wolves haven’t scored in the second half in any of their last seven Premier League games – it’s their longest such run in the competition, while the last team to have a longer streak were Southampton between October and December last season (8).
● Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 21 Premier League away games (W15 D6) since a 1-0 loss at Spurs in their opening game last season. However, their last two away games have finished level, with the Citizens not going three without a win on the road since July 2020.
● Manchester City have the highest shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season (19.6%). The Citizens have also outperformed their expected goals more than any other side this term, netting 20 goals compared to an xG of 13.9 (+6.1).
● No side has scored fewer Premier League goals than Wolves so far this season (3), while they also have the worst shot conversion rate so far this term (4%). However, Bruno Lage’s side have conceded the fewest goals so far (4), conceding just 6% of their shots faced.
● Against no side has Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne scored more Premier League goals than he has against Wolves (5), with four of those strikes coming in a 5-1 win in this exact fixture last season.
● Daniel Podence has scored two of Wolves’ three Premier League goals this season, with no side having fewer different scorers than Wolves this term (2). In six games this season, Podence has already matched his Premier League goal tally from last season (2 in 26 games).
● Man City striker Erling Haaland has scored in all three of his Premier League away games – no player has ever scored in their first four appearances on the road in the competition.
NEWCASTLE V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We only have one game kicking off at 3pm as Newcastle host Bournemouth. The home side come into this game as heavy favourites – they are trading 1.49 at the time of writing – but I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at those odds. Since their comfortable 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest on the opening week they haven’t notched up another win. They have had a reasonably tough fixture list, they had to play Brighton who have been excellent, Manchester City and Liverpool. They did manage to pick up a fantastic 3-3 draw here against Manchester City so while they haven’t won in five games they haven’t been playing badly. Bournemouth pressed the panic button after losing 9-0 to Liverpool when sacking Scott Parker, but since then they have picked up a draw against Wolves and then beat Nottingham Forest 3-2. That second half performance was fantastic and Nottingham Forest had absolutely no answers when Bournemouth changed their tactics. It will be interesting to see how they get on here – Newcastle have been performing very well and this will be a good test to see where Bournemouth are at the moment.
Although when you look at the underlining numbers you can’t help but be impressed with Newcastle – they might have had to settle for a 0-0 draw at home to Crystal Palace but the game finished with an xG of 4.17. They were clearly very unlucky not to win that game, but at the same time I just wouldn’t be including them in any Betdaq Multiple this weekend at the odds. It’s hard to make the case that they should be shorter than 1.49 and I’m happy to look to the side markets for my best bet here. Although both sides have had a 0-0 draw within their last two games, they haven’t actually had plenty of goals in their games. Obviously Bournemouth got hammered by Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool but then they had that crazy game against Nottingham Forest too. With the amount of chances that Newcastle have created and the fact that they won’t sit back here I feel Over 2.5 goals stands out at 1.87. We’re going to see an open and entertaining game here and we should see goals.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewBou
● Newcastle have lost just two of their eight Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (W4 D2), though both of those defeats came at St James’ Park (March 2016, November 2017).
● After failing to score in their first Premier League meeting with Newcastle, Bournemouth have found the net in each of their last seven against them. However, they’ve only kept one clean sheet in their eight top- flight meetings with the Magpies.
● Newcastle have won their last three Premier League games against promoted sides, their longest such run since a run of seven between October 2013 and November 2014.
● Newcastle have lost just one of their last eight Premier League games (W3 D4), a 2-1 loss to Liverpool last month. However, the Magpies are currently also winless in five league matches (D4 L1).
● Newcastle have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League home games (W8 D4), going down 1-0 against Liverpool in April. They’ve only conceded more than one goal in one of those 13 games, doing so in their 3- 3 draw with Manchester City last month.
● Bournemouth have conceded 18 goals in their six Premier League games this season – the joint-most at this stage by any side in the competition’s history. Four sides have conceded as many as 20 in their opening seven Premier League games – Derby in 2007-08 (20), Bolton in 2011-12 (21), Southampton in 2012-13 (20) and Watford in 2019-20 (20).
● Bournemouth have had just 34 shots in the Premier League this season, at least 22 fewer than any other side so far. They’ve also had a league-low 12 efforts on target, but have the third-highest shot conversion rate of 14.7%.
● Only Nottingham Forest (42) have faced more shots on target than Newcastle in the Premier League this season (36). However, the Magpies have conceded just six goals, with their 17% of shots on target faced going in, the lowest percentage in the division.
● This will be Newcastle boss Eddie Howe’s first ever match in charge against his former club Bournemouth. Howe won both games against Burnley in the Premier League last season (the only other side he’s managed), as many as he had in his previous 10 against his former employers (D2 L6).
● Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke has scored 49 goals in English league football (1 for Liverpool, 48 for Bournemouth). 45 of these strikes have come in his last three seasons (90 appearances), compared to just four in his first three campaigns (63 apps).
TOTTENHAM V LEICESTER
5.30pm We finish the evening with Spurs hosting Leicester and it’s hard to see past a Spurs win here. Although they lost their unbeaten start to the season midweek in the Champions League, they face a Leicester side here who have been terrible this season. Brendan Rodgers is a man under pressure, and it will be interesting to see how long he lasts in charge. I think the players actions on the pitch display a lot of negative energy around the dressing room, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers has lost the dressing room, and it’s very rare you see players really cutting into each other on the pitch. That’s what we saw when Leicester lost 5-2 to Brighton before the little break in games, and now Leicester start the weekend sitting bottom of the table. One point from six games is a woeful return, and although they have had to play Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United the performance at home to the likes of Southampton just really highlights how average they look this season. It was disappointing to see them go backwards last season after being very competitive in the Top Four race for two years, but if you looked at their stats you would see that they were actually lucky to finish in 8th. What we’re seeing now is actually how good they are, and they are definitely in the mix for relegation.
Leicester are your classic “surely they are too good to go down” side, but they’ve had such a bad start it’s easy for morale to get low, and it really only takes another few losses and they are so far behind it gets difficult to catch up. A fascinating few weeks lie ahead to be honest. From a betting point of view, I can’t see past Spurs here at 1.52. It was bitterly disappointing to see them lose to Sporting Lisbon midweek, but they have looked good this season under Conte. They will be more settled here with home advantage too, and they have created enough this season to see off an average Leicester side. The thing is too, Leicester have been giving away goals and chances for fun, so Spurs will get plenty of chances to score here. I’d have them trading shorter than 1.5, and I’d be happy to include them in any Acca this weekend. They aren’t quite a Max Bet, but a very confident one.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Tottenham to beat Leicester at 1.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotLcr
● Tottenham have won seven of their last nine Premier League games against Leicester (L2), including each of the last three – they’ve never won four consecutive league games against the Foxes before.
● Leicester have lost four of their last five Premier League away games against Spurs (W1), conceding at least three goals in each defeat.
● Since Leicester’s return to the Premier League in 2014, only Arsenal vs Liverpool (64) has seen more goals in the Premier League than Leicester against Tottenham (63).
● Tottenham have won each of their last six Premier League home games, their longest such run at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. They last had a longer home winning run between November 2016 and May 2017 at White Hart Lane (14 games).
● Leicester remain bottom of the table with just one point from their six games so far this season – the last time they failed to win any of their first seven league games in a top-flight campaign was 1983-84, when they ended up finishing 15th.
● Leicester have lost each of their last five Premier League games, last losing more consecutively in December 2014 (6). It’s also manager Brendan Rodgers’ longest run of defeats in his league career across the Premier League, Championship and Scottish Premiership.
● Leicester have dropped 24 points from winning positions in the Premier League so far in 2022, at least eight more than any other side. The Foxes have dropped a league-high eight such points so far this term.
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored more goals against Leicester in all competitions than he has against any other side in his senior career (19). 17 of those goals have come in the Premier League, with only Alan Shearer netting more against a specific opponent (20 vs Leeds).
● No player has had more shots without scoring in the Premier League this season than Tottenham’s Son Heung-min, with last season’s Golden Boot winner having 17 attempts without success so far.
● Jamie Vardy has played 276 Premier League games for Leicester, the joint-most for the club along with Kasper Schmeichel. His next appearance for the club will see become the third player to be the outright leader for each of appearances, goals and assists at a single Premier League club, along with Troy Deeney (Watford) and Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace).