PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s Premier League games including CHELSEA v MAN U at 5.30pm – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats via FACTMAN.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm We have a brilliant Saturday ahead in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We might have a shorter than usual fixture list with only four games taking place after a busy midweek fixture list, but with Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United all in action it’s going to be a cracking day. We start with Nottingham Forest hosting Liverpool. While Liverpool will be fully expected to win this game, they aren’t trading the shortest price of the day – that title goes to Manchester City who are at home to Brighton. Nevertheless Liverpool are a very short price to win here – they are currently trading 1.28 at the time of writing and although they haven’t been at their best this season, it’s hard to see anything bar a Liverpool win here. I’m not going to tip them at 1.28 because you get no prizes for tipping odds that short, but at the same time they are a very nice bet to include in any Acca this weekend. Forest would have been happy with a 0-0 draw midweek against Brighton, but their performance was still very poor. This should be a smooth win for Liverpool, and it’s more of a question of how many goals can they score rather than will they win in my opinion.
With that in mind, the obvious place to start here is the goal and handicap markets. Nottingham Forest put so much investment into the club signing all those players towards the end of the transfer window, but it simply hasn’t paid off. Although their results have obviously been very poor, I think it’s more worrying when you look at their performance level. For example they’ve picked up two draws recently but they still only finished those games with xG figures of 0.30 and 0.23. They aren’t creating enough; it’s as simple as that. In the 0-0 draw midweek against Brighton, they conceded an xG of 2.34 and you just know they are going to give Liverpool a host of chances here. From a Liverpool point of view it was good to see them follow up their win against Manchester City with a win midweek over West Ham. They’ve recorded two 1-0 wins, but the games have been so open! The West Ham game could have finished 4-4! With Forest creating so little and Liverpool attacking more than ever, I can only see Liverpool covering the handicap here. The 1.77 -1.5 goals looks a cracking bet to start the weekend.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.77 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotLiv
EVERTON V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm We only have two games kicking off at 3pm this afternoon, but they are two interesting games nonetheless. We start with Everton hosting Crystal Palace, and we have the most open market of the day here. Indeed both sides aren’t too far away from each other in the market. Everton come into the game as the favourites because they have home advantage, but whatever way you look at this it’s going to be a very close game. Although I agree with the market in the sense that it should be very open, but I wouldn’t have Everton as short as 2.68 – I would have Everton closer to 3.0, and then Crystal Palace a little shorter than their current 3.0. Everton did have a tough fixture list recently as they had to play Manchester United and Spurs – and in fairness Newcastle away midweek was a tough fixture too given how much Newcastle have improved this season. It was nice to land a Max Bet on Newcastle that night, and they absolutely bossed the game. Everton only managed to create an xG of 0.12 which is one of the lowest xG figures in the Premier League this season. Crystal Palace grinded out a hard fought 2-1 win over Wolves, and they have put together some nice performances now. They were pretty poor when drawing to Brentford, shocking when drawing with Newcastle and then outplayed by Chelsea so it’s been a nice bounce back.
I’m going to keep stakes small here because Everton have home advantage, but it’s hard to get away from the Everton lay at 2.68 from a value point of view. As I said above I would just have the sides a little closer together in the market. The main worry here is Crystal Palace were poor in their last two away games. They managed two 0-0’s against Leicester and Newcastle, but they only created xG figures of 1.03 and 0.34 while conceding 4.17 and 1.07. They actually haven’t won away from home this season, but they did have to play Liverpool and Manchester City in their other two away games so we can’t be too harsh on them! Everton have been conceding a lot of chances this season and getting away with it – for example their average xG conceded is 1.9 while their actual is 1.1. It won’t be long until teams start taking their chances against them, and I can definitely see Palace getting a result here.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Everton to beat Crystal Palace at 2.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveCrl
MANCHESTER CITY V BRIGHTON
3pm Next we have the shortest price of the day as Manchester City are hosting Brighton. The market is very confident on a home win here with City trading as short as 1.22 at the time of writing. That price is a bit of an insult to Brighton really because Brighton have played some top class football this season, but it is a sign of just how strong City are at the moment. That being said, they did suffer a major setback last weekend with a 1-0 loss to Liverpool. With Arsenal grinding out a win last weekend too that meant there was a four point gap at the top of the table. It’s still early days, but City wouldn’t want the gap getting any bigger. Arsenal and City were actually due to play each other in that round of midweek fixtures, but Arsenal had to play PSV in the Europa League after that fixture was postponed the week the Queen passed away. Although Brighton are coming into this game with only one win from their last six games, they have actually been in great form. They have been the most unlucky side in the Premier League recently, and that run was topped off midweek when they had to settle for a 0-0 draw at home to Nottingham Forest but finished the game with an xG of 2.34. They totally bossed that game too only conceding an xG of 0.23.
Obviously away to City is a totally different ballgame, but they did manage to pick one a 3-3 draw away to Liverpool recently. They were very unlucky away to Brentford too – they lost 2-0 but again finished the game with an xG of over 2.0. Brighton really need a striker like Erling Haaland – I know the finances wouldn’t really allow it but that’s basically what they need on a less experience star nature obviously. Haaland has really made the difference to City given how many chances they used to create and miss. The market is expecting goals here with City trading so short, but I feel Brighton can get on the score sheet at some stage. Their average xG created this season is bang on 2.0 which is impressive in anyones book. Both Teams To Score is trading 2.2 and that definitely looks a good value position. I know City will have a lot of the ball, but I can’t see Brighton sitting back either. I’d expect a very open game with plenty of chances, and we know City can get sloppy at the back too if they went 2-0 or 3-0 up early.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciBha
CHELSEA V MANCHESTER UNITED
5.30pm What a fixture to finish Saturday with! Chelsea host Manchester United in what should be a fascinating game to enjoy. It was going to be a massive week for United given they played Spurs midweek and then had to come here – they put on their most impressive display of the season midweek against Spurs, and now they have another big question to answer here. It was a real shame to see Ronaldo walk down the tunnel early and take the limelight away from a wonderful United performance, but you can’t get away from the fact that they play better without him in the starting XI. He just doesn’t fit the ten Hag system, and at this stage United are probably better off without him. It’s hard for Ronaldo to not play every week, especially at his age because you can see he has lost a yard of pace this season. When you’re not playing every week that’s only going to get worse – I’d be very surprised if he was still at Old Trafford after January but then again nobody wanted him in the summer. Chelsea had to settle for a 0-0 away midweek against Brentford, and they didn’t play well either. They conceded an xG figure close to three times what they created, and as I said in my preview of that game their performances haven’t been great lately.
They managed a 2-0 win away to Aston Villa, but they conceded an xG of 2.65 while doing it and we know how average Villa have been this season. At home it’s clear that they are more comfortable, but they have been conceding a lot of chances. It will be very interesting to see what tactics ten Hag goes with it – I think if he opts to attack this Chelsea side he’ll have success. United are still finding their feet under ten Hag and throwing in the odd poor performance which is clearly a worry, but overall it’s clear to see that they are going in the right direction. They have been so much better at the back, especially since Maguire was dropped too. I’m going to keep stakes small because I still don’t fully trust this United side, but the Chelsea lay at 2.18 stands out here. I expect a very close game, and Chelsea aren’t playing well enough at the moment to justify these short odds. If United turn up in form like midweek then they will create a host of chances against this Chelsea side, and they could even win too. For me though it’s a nice position to keep the draw on side, so I’m happy with the home lay.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Manchester United at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheMun