PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker looks ahead to a busy day of Premier League action including Palace v Liverpool at 7.45pm All match previews include FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
EVERTON V ASTON VILLA
3pm It feels like every weekend is now a huge weekend in the Premier League, and we’re all set for another cracking day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We don’t have an early kick off this season, but we do have a late game as Crystal Palace host Liverpool at 7-45pm later on. We have four games kicking off at 3pm to start the action though, and the first of which is Everton hosting Aston Villa. We have an open market to start the day, but Everton come into the game as favourites at 2.64 with home advantage. So far the Sean Dyche era at Everton is going superbly well with two wins from three games. They lost to Merseyside Derby away to Liverpool in between, but we can easily forgive them that. That was a huge win here last weekend against Leeds, and they deserved it too. They finished the game with an xG of over double what they conceded, and to keep a creative side like Leeds down to an xG of 0.79 is obviously impressive. It wasn’t as good as their performance against Arsenal here though, that was ever better. Aston Villa face a tough task here, Dyche has Everton playing well and as we all know home advantage is very important for sides in relegation battles. Dyche has the experience, but Everton fans will be happy to be out of the bottom three anyway!
Aston Villa come into this game off the back of three losses, but they have had a difficult fixture list. They’ve had to play Arsenal and Manchester City in their last two games and were completely outplayed. Conceding four goals to Leicester before those two games was probably more disappointing. I wouldn’t be a huge fan of Everton by any means, but there’s no getting away from the fact that they come into this game in a good place. The new manager buzz has worked, and it feels like a good time to support them. Not only have they been solid at the back, they have created two impressive xG figures back-to-back at home now. Aston Villa are a solid mid-to-low table side, but they aren’t much more than that. I’m going to keep stakes limited here because Everton aren’t a side to trust with a big stake, but it seems an ideal time to back them. They are playing with confidence and Villa have been shipping a lot of goals lately albeit against better quality opposition.
The Striker Says:
One point win Everton to beat Aston Villa at 2.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveAst
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Everton have lost their last two home league games against Aston Villa, as many as in their previous 16 at Goodison Park (W7 D7). They’ve never lost three in a row at home against them in their league history.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2019, Aston Villa are unbeaten in all seven of their meetings with Everton (W5 D2), winning the last three in a row. They last won four consecutively against the Toffees between September 1996 and March 1998.
● Aston Villa against Everton is the most played fixture in English Football League history, with this the 210th meeting (78 wins for Villa, 76 for Everton, 55 draws). It’s also the English league fixture to see the most goals scored (645 – 324 for Everton, 321 for Villa).
● Everton have won their last two Premier League home games (both 1-0), as many as they had in their previous 10 at Goodison Park (D2 L6). They last won more consecutively in September 2021 (4), while they last won three in a row without conceding in August 2019 (5).
● Aston Villa have lost their last three Premier League games, conceding more in these three defeats (11) as they had in their first seven matches under Unai Emery (7). The Villans haven’t lost four consecutive league games while shipping 3+ goals each time since September 1958.
● No side has scored (9) or conceded (9) more goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games this season than Aston Villa. Their nine goals in this time period is three more than Everton have netted in the first half overall this term (6).
● Emiliano Buendía has scored in both of his Premier League games for Aston Villa against Everton, with the Toffees one of just two clubs he’s scored more than once against in the competition (also 2 vs Burnley).
● Sean Dyche is looking to become the fifth permanent Everton manager to win each of his first three home league games in charge of the club, after William Edward Barclay (1888), Dick Molyneux (1889), Harry Catterick (1961) and Rafael Benitez (2021). Dyche could be the first to do so without conceding.
● Both of Everton’s goals under Sean Dyche have been scored by players who hadn’t previously netted in the Premier League this season, with James Tarkowski scoring the winner against Arsenal, and Séamus Coleman doing so against Leeds.
● Ollie Watkins has scored in each of his last four Premier League games – no Aston Villa player has ever scored in five consecutive appearances in the competition before.
LEEDS V SOUTHAMPTON
3pm What a huge game in the relegation battle! Southampton broke their losing run with a surprise 1-0 win over Chelsea last weekend – that came away from home, and although they still sit in last place in the Premier League it would have been a huge boost. It came just after they sacked their manager too – so Southampton have a fresh start! The big question now is can they follow that up? Looking at the xG figures from that game they were clearly very lucky to win, but they face lower quality opposition now and a relegation rival. Leeds fans will be gutted to be back in the relegation battle after they looked safe earlier in the season – however two recent losses against Nottingham Forest and Everton have really put them in a bad spot. They are still waiting for their first Premier League win since the World Cup, and how dearly they would love to win this game! With both sides taking up the last two spots in the Premier League table, plus Everton and Bournemouth winning last weekend too, the loser of this game is going to be under immense pressure. Leeds come into the game as the clear favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. They are trading 2.08 at the time of writing, and I don’t see them being too popular at those odds after Southampton broke their losing run last weekend. Plus, do you want to back a side who haven’t won in the Premier League since before the World Cup at 2.08?
To be fair to Leeds, they haven’t been playing as badly as the other sides in the relegation battle. They definitely create the most chances out of the sides around them in the table, but the funny thing about Southampton this season is that they have picked up a lot more points away from home. They have only managed six at home all season, and they are adrift at the bottom of the home form table, but they sit in mid-table on the away form table with the same amount of points as games played. I wouldn’t say that Leeds have been impressive at home this season, and I can definitely see a closer game than the 2.08 suggests. With these two sitting bottom of the table, I expect a pretty low quality game and thus it’s wise to keep stakes small here. I feel Leeds being so short offers some value in the market, and the draw is worth backing at 3.7. I can only see a very close game here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeSou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leeds have lost just one of their 14 Premier League home games against Southampton (W7 D6) and are unbeaten in their last eight since a 1-0 loss in February 1998.
● Southampton have won three of their last eight Premier League games against Leeds (D3 L2), as many as they had in their first 21 against them in the competition (D6 L12).
● Leeds are winless in their last 10 Premier League games (D4 L6), the longest current winless run in the competition. Only twice have the Whites had a longer run without a win in the top-flight – 17 games between February-May 1947, and 14 games between December 1926 and March 1927.
● This is just Leeds’ second game starting the day in the relegation zone this season, following their 2-1 win at Liverpool in October. The Whites have won four of their last six league games when starting the day in the bottom three (D1 L1).
● Four of Southampton’s five Premier League wins this season have come away from home, including a 1-0 victory at Chelsea last time out. They’ve earned 67% of their points on the road this term (12/18), as it stands the joint-highest share in a single top-flight campaign (level with Blackpool in 1966-67 and Crystal Palace in 1997-98).
● Teams starting the day bottom have won nine Premier League games this season, the most in a single campaign since 2017-18 (12). Southampton have been responsible for two of these wins (2-1 vs Everton, 1- 0 vs Chelsea), while one of the other victories came against Leeds (2-0 to Leicester in October).
● Southampton are the only team whose Premier League games haven’t seen a single penalty goal this season. The only team to go through an entire Premier League campaign without scoring or conceding a single penalty were Crystal Palace in 1992-93.
● Leeds have won just one of their last nine Premier League home games (D4 L4), failing to score in each of the last two. They last went three games without a goal at Elland Road in the top-flight in January 2004.
● If he plays, this will be James Ward-Prowse’s 329th Premier League game, equalling Jason Dodd for the most appearances in the competition by a Southampton player. Following his goal against Chelsea last time out, Ward-Prowse (17) is just one short of David Beckham’s Premier League record for most direct free-kick goals in the competition (18).
● Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has scored three Premier League goals against Southampton, including his first ever strike in the competition while at Middlesbrough in May 2017. Only against Aston Villa (4) has he scored more in the top-flight.
LEICESTER V ARSENAL
3pm All aboard the Arsenal rollercoaster! What other way could you describe how Arsenal fans have felt over the past few weeks. They watched their five point lead disappear at the top of the Premier League table – went without a win in four games in all competitions ending with a 3-1 loss to Manchester City, but then after a dramatic injury time winner against Aston Villa last weekend and Manchester City dropping points away to Nottingham Forest they have a two point lead again! Manchester City went top after the Arsenal win too on goal difference, but now it’s Arsenal back in the driving seat! They face another tricky away fixture here, but they have been getting the job done more times than not away from home this season. You’d have to be slightly worried about backing Arsenal here though at 1.75. Leicester were all over the place at the back in the second half at Old Trafford last weekend – they lost 3-0 but it could have easily be five or six – however, prior to that game they scored eight goals in two games against Aston Villa and Spurs. They pretty much blew Spurs away in their last home game, and Arsenal will have to turn up in good form to win here.
Arsenal were very impressive away to Aston Villa, I know their win was very dramatic in the end but they finished the game with an xG of 3.41 and fully deserved to win – they just had to wait until the 93rd minute! Their two performances against Everton and Brentford recently would definitely worry me though, and I feel the 1.75 is at least ten ticks too short here. I couldn’t put anyone off the Arsenal lay because I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest, but this game screams goals too. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.75 too, and this looks an exceptional bet – I’d much rather Over 2.5 goals compared to backing Arsenal! As we all know, Arsenal have been excellent going forward this season, their average xG created is 2.1 this season but they have been conceding some sloppy goals lately. Leicester have had plenty of goals in their games this season – and they have been woeful at the back too – their average xG conceded is very high at 1.8. I feel this game absolutely screams goals, and at 1.75 Over 2.5 goals is worth a Max Bet.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiArs
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Leicester have lost their last four Premier League games against Arsenal, last losing five in a row against them in the league between September 1930 and October 1932.
● Arsenal are looking to win three consecutive away league games against Leicester for just the second time, previously doing so between December 1913 and September 1925.
● Leicester are winless in 18 Premier League games against teams starting the day top of the table (D2 L16) since a 1-0 win at Manchester United in January 1998. This is just their second such game against Arsenal, with the other being a 2-1 Gunners victory in the final game of their unbeaten 2003-04 campaign.
● Leicester have won just three of their 11 home league games this season (D3 L5), though did beat Tottenham 4-1 in their last match at the King Power Stadium.
● Arsenal have won nine of their 12 Premier League away games this season (D1 L2), as many as they did in their 19 on the road last term. They’ve only reached double figures for away wins in one of the last eight campaigns (10 in 2020-21).
● Leicester have lost more Premier League games from winning positions than any other side this season (5). Meanwhile, no side have won more games from behind so far this term than Arsenal (4).
● Only Newcastle (6) have conceded fewer first half goals than Arsenal (8) in the Premier League this season. However, the Gunners have conceded three times before half-time across their last two games, more than they had in their previous 12 combined (2).
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored more Premier League goals against Arsenal than he has against any other opponent (11). However, he’s scored just once in 23 Premier League appearances this season, and has failed to find the net in his last three against the Gunners.
● Bukayo Saka has been involved in 49 Premier League goals for Arsenal (26 goals, 23 assists). Should he score or assist in this game, he would become the youngest player (21y 173d on the day of this game) to reach 50 Premier League goal involvements since Cesc Fabregas in April 2008 (20y 337d) and the sixth youngest overall.
● Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has been involved in more shots following a ball carry than any other player in the Premier League this season (38 – 18 shots, 20 chances created). Saka has also attempted (96) and completed (46) more dribbles than any other player this term.
WEST HAM V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm We finish the 3pm fixtures with West Ham hosting Nottingham Forest. This should be an interesting game, and it’s a very interesting market too. West Ham are trading odds on 1.83, but they slipped into the relegation zone last weekend and in general they have been poor this season. David Moyes’ side has gone from challenging for the European spots to the relegation battle, and while their squad looks too good to go down on paper they are still very much involved at the moment! They have only managed one win since the World Cup, and while they did pick up draws against Newcastle and Chelsea recently I really don’t see them being value here at 1.83. Nottingham Forest have had plenty of success since the World Cup too; and although they were very lucky to pick up a draw against Manchester City last weekend – they have jumped up the table with wins over Southampton, Leicester and Leeds since the World Cup – they also picked up a 1-1 draw with Chelsea too. They are playing their best football of the season at the moment, and they must be full of confidence too.
It’s clear that Nottingham Forest still have major issues at the back – their average xG conceded this season is a very high 1.9. That’s usually what we see from teams in the relegation battle, but you have to give them credit for grinding out results. West Ham have had issues in front of goal all season – their average xG created is 1.4 which isn’t bad, but they are only converting a little over half of those chances. With their average xG conceded at 1.3, you can see why they haven’t got that many points this season. I’m not going to go mad with stakes here, but the West Ham lay at 1.83 is hard to get away from here. From a value point of view, I fully expect a closer game than the odds suggest. A win for Nottingham Forest would be massive too moving them right away from the bottom three, and putting West Ham under immense pressure too!
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) West Ham to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● This is the first time West Ham are hosting Nottingham Forest in a league game since January 2012 (2-1 in the Championship) and the first time in a Premier League game since February 1999 (2-1 win). They’ve lost just one of their last 10 home league games against Forest (W7 D2).
● Following their 1-0 win at the City Ground in August, Nottingham Forest are looking to complete the league double over West Ham for the first time since the 1983-84 campaign under Brian Clough.
● West Ham have won seven of their last eight Premier League home games against promoted sides (L1), including each of the last four in a row. They last won five consecutively against promoted clubs in the top- flight between December 1996 and February 1999, the fifth game of which was against Nottingham Forest.
● West Ham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League games (D3 L7). Overall, only Southampton (15) have lost more Premier League games than West Ham this season, with the Hammers’ 13 defeats just one fewer than they suffered in the whole of 2021-22.
● Nottingham Forest have earned the joint-fewest points (6), scored the fewest goals (3) and conceded the third highest amount of goals (25) in Premier League away games this season. They’ve also lost both visits to London this term by an aggregate score of 7-0.
● Nottingham Forest have used more different players than any other Premier League side this season (33) – the last team to use more across a single campaign were Liverpool in 2015-16 (34), while the last promoted side to do so were QPR in 2011-12 (35).
● West Ham have an expected goals tally of 29.6 in the Premier League this term, but have scored just 19 goals. Their difference of scoring almost 11 goals fewer than their xG suggests is the biggest negative difference in the competition this term.
● Nottingham Forest have had fewer shots on target than any other Premier League side this season (68), while only Wolves (6.32%) have a lower shot conversion rate than West Ham this term (6.35%).
● Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood – who scored his first goal for the club against Man City last time out – has scored more Premier League goals against West Ham than he has any other opponent (7). However, six of his seven goals against them came in his first five games, netting just once in his subsequent five against the Hammers.
● Morgan Gibbs-White has five Premier League assists this season, as many as every other Nottingham Forest player combined. He’s assisted three goals in his last five Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 63 appearances in the competition.
BOURNEMOUTH V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm We have the shortest price of the weekend as Bournemouth host Manchester City. Although 99% of football fans will expect a Manchester City win here, Bournemouth did add a little spice after breaking their run without a win last weekend. I don’t think a win over Wolves, who are also in the relegation battle, can compare to playing Manchester City but it will give Bournemouth a nice boost coming into this game. It’s very hard to see past a City win here, and they are trading as short as 1.34 at the time of writing. City backers got their fingers burnt last weekend away to Nottingham Forest, and although City played very well to finish the game with an xG of 3.21 they simply must take their chances here. To do all the hard work of closing the five point gap on Arsenal and then drop points in their next game against Nottingham Forest was criminal to be honest. They had to settle for a 1-1 draw away to RB Leipzig midweek in the Champions League as well, however that’s not a bad position to be in heading into the second leg at home. They didn’t create much though, they only finished the game with an xG of 0.90.
The gulf in class between these sides is massive. I’m sure Bournemouth will view this game as “anything is a bonus” and they might as well attack. Sitting back is just giving City the ball for the game and we all know they’ll score eventually. Bournemouth don’t have the ability to defend well for 90 minutes too – they are conceding an average xG of 1.8 this season and they are only creating half of that. Their stats do paint a grim picture, and although they bounced out of the bottom three last weekend, I feel this is a case of how many goals can City score rather than will they win. City have an FA Cup fixture midweek, and Guardiola will likely rotate his squad for that game – we should see City all guns blazing here, especially after dropping points last season. They are 1.86 -1.5 goal Handicap and that looks a very nice bet – I can see City cruising to victory here with a handful of goals.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Bournemouth at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BouMci
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Bournemouth have never beaten Manchester City in 17 previous league meetings (D2 L15) – it’s the most one team has faced another without ever winning in English Football League history.
● Man City have won all 11 of their Premier League games against Bournemouth, the best 100% win rate in the competition’s history.
● Bournemouth won 1-0 at Wolves last time out, their first Premier League victory since the competition resumed following the World Cup. They last won consecutive games within the same top-flight season in February 2020.
● Since the resumption of the Premier League following the World Cup break, Bournemouth have scored fewer goals than any other side (3). Overall, the Cherries have failed to score in more different Premier League games than anyone else this term (12).
● Manchester City have won 199 Premier League away games – their first 100 came in 337 games between 1992 and 2014, while their last 99 have taken just 156 games. However, their last away match ended in a 1- 1 draw against promoted side Nottingham Forest.
● Manchester City have had 515 open play sequences of 10+ passes in the Premier League this season, over 150 more than any other side and 412 more than Bournemouth who rank 20th. Only West Ham (359) have seen their opponents have more such sequences than Bournemouth (340).
● No Bournemouth player has been involved in more Premier League goals this season than Marcus Tavernier (7 – 3 goals, 4 assists). His seven involvements have come in his last four starts in the competition.
● Erling Haaland has 26 Premier League goals this season, five more than Bournemouth have managed as a team. The last Man City player to score more in a single top-flight campaign was Francis Lee (33 in 1971- 72).
● Jack Grealish has been involved in seven goals in 18 Premier League games for Man City this season (3 goals, 4 assists), one more than he was in 26 appearances last term (3 goals, 3 assists). All seven of these have come away from home so far this term.
● Man City keeper Ederson has kept 99 clean sheets in 206 Premier League games, with only Petr Cech (180) and Pepe Reina (198) reaching 100 in fewer appearances than the Brazilian if he doesn’t concede in 90 minutes here. However, since recording his 99th, Ederson has conceded in four consecutive Premier League games, last doing so in five in a row in November/December 2019.
CRYSTAL PALACE V LIVERPOOL
7.45pm We finish an intriguing day with Crystal Palace hosting Liverpool. This is an interesting market, and I’m sure there will be some big opinions on Liverpool at 1.8 either side of the book. On paper, you’d have to expect Liverpool to win but they have been a shambles at the back this season. Embarrassing was a popular word thrown around after Liverpool lost 5-2 to Real Madrid during the week in the Champions League, but to be honest they have been woeful at the back all season. What makes the Champions League result worse is they were 2-0 up, and basically couldn’t “shut up shop” as they say. They will likely “get away” with being poor at the back against an average side like Crystal Palace, but after losing 3-0 to Wolves recently away from home I just couldn’t back them at 1.8. I wouldn’t recommend laying them either however, because Crystal Palace have been poor this season. They’ve only managed one win since the World Cup, and that came against Bournemouth too. They did manage draws against Manchester United, Newcastle, Brighton and Brentford recently though, so they could easily stop Liverpool from winning here.
If you look at the Crystal Palace xG figures, they really aren’t impressive. They are conceding an average xG of 1.7 this season and only creating 1.1. We usually see stats like that from sides in the relegation battle, but they have grinded out enough results to not worry about that. When you consider how poor Crystal Palace are going forward, you also have to remember how many sloppy goals Liverpool have conceded this season! Their average xG conceded this season is 1.7 which is exceptionally high for a club as big as Liverpool. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here, and with Liverpool playing such an open game because they seemingly can’t do anything else, attention turns to the goals market. Both Teams To Score is 1.83 and Over 2.5 goals is only a couple of ticks bigger at 1.86. Even if Liverpool win the game, I feel Palace can score at some stage and Both Teams To Score is worth a small bet. I’m keen to keep stakes small here, because Palace are hardly a side you can rely on – the same with Liverpool this season!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryLiv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 1-1 draw at Anfield in the reverse fixture, Crystal Palace are looking to avoid defeat in both Premier League meetings with Liverpool for the first time since 2014-15.
● Liverpool have won their last seven Premier League away games against Crystal Palace by an aggregate score of 22-6. Only at Norwich (8 between 1995 and 2021) have the Reds had a longer away winning run in the competition.
● Liverpool have lost two of their last three away Premier League games against London sides, as many as they had in their previous 24 visits to the capital (W14 D8). They lost 3-1 at Brentford in their last such match, last losing consecutive visits in April 2015.
● Thanks to Brentford’s late equaliser last time out, Crystal Palace remain winless in their last seven Premier League games (D4 L3). They last had a longer run without a victory in June/July 2020 (8 games).
● After a run of four Premier League games without a win (D1 L3), Liverpool have won their last two. They’ve won them both by a 2-0 scoreline, having kept just one clean sheet in their previous 10 matches.
● Liverpool are the only side yet to concede a goal from outside the box in the Premier League this season; last season, the Reds conceded a league-high share 27% of their goals from distance (7/26).
● Liverpool have had more shots from fast breaks (counter attacks) than any other Premier League side this season (19). However, the Reds have also faced more shots from fast breaks than anyone else (21), with only Everton (8) conceding more such goals (5).
● No side has won more Premier League games when conceding the first goal than Crystal Palace this season (4). However, Liverpool are the only side with a 100% win rate when scoring first in the competition this term (won 8/8).
● Liverpool duo Mohamed Salah and Darwin Núñez create a chance for one another on average every 55 minutes in the Premier League this season, the best rate of any pair to have played at least 500 minutes together.
● Cody Gakpo has scored in his last two Premier League appearances, with both of his strikes making the score 2-0 to Liverpool. No player has scored in three consecutive games for the Reds so far this season.