PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: The Striker previews Saturday’s busy Premier League set of fixtures starting with MAN CITY v NEWCASTLE at 12.30pm. All games include FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER CITY V NEWCASTLE
12.30pm It’s another blockbuster Saturday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have seven games to go through, and we’re going to have a big impact on the top and bottom of the table. We start the day with Manchester City hosting Newcastle. After losing the Carabao Cup Final last weekend to Manchester United, Newcastle fans must be sick of seeing Manchester clubs! It hasn’t been a good run for Newcastle recently. They have dropped out of the Top Four in the Premier League and they would have been gutted to losing at Wembley on Sunday – it’s been so long since they were in a big Final. When you step back, they have still achieved so much this season – but they can’t afford to keep heading in the wrong direction. If they are going to fall short in the race for the Champions League places, they have to get into the Europa League for example. Obviously meeting Manchester City away from home isn’t a good fixture off the back of two losses and four games without a win, and it’s hard to see them causing a surprise here. City have had a pretty textbook week with a 4-1 win over Bournemouth and a 3-0 win over Bristol City – two games they were trading short odds to win.
Newcastle having been playing excellent football this season. Their xG figures back that up, and deserve to be where they are in the table. They will be a good test for City, and I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.47 on City. They aren’t involved in the Champions League fixtures next week, and they can give this fixture their full focus. They need too, because after Arsenal went five points clear with a win over Everton on Wednesday night. City find themselves back in the same position, closer to the end of the season. Any more dropped points would be a disaster now. Newcastle have clearly been creating a lot of chances this season – their average xG created is 1.9 but they haven’t been scoring a lot lately. I know we have two attacking teams here, but I actually don’t see many goals here. I don’t see Guardiola wanting to go toe-to-toe with Newcastle in an open game because of their performances this season, I can see City trying to control the game and grinding out a win. Newcastle are clearly struggling in front of goal at the moment, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them not find the net. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.28 and there’s definitely some value in that price – the market is expecting an open game, but I feel it will be more cagey than expected.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciNwc
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester City have won their last 13 Premier League home games against Newcastle – only Everton (14 vs Fulham) have had a longer winning home run against an opponent in the competition.
● Following their 3-3 draw at St James’ Park in August, Newcastle are looking to avoid defeat in both Premier League meetings with Man City for the first time since 2004-05 (W1 D1).
● Manchester City have scored in their last 28 Premier League games against Newcastle since a 0-0 draw in November 2006. It’s the joint-longest goalscoring run one team has had against another in Premier League history, along with Manchester United against Leicester City.
● Manchester City have won 14 of their last 16 Premier League home games (D1 L1), with the exceptions in this run coming in consecutive games against Brentford (1-2) and Everton (1-1) this season.
● Newcastle are unbeaten in eight Premier League away games (W4 D4), with each of the last three games ending level. Only once in their top-flight history have they had a longer run without defeat on the road, going 10 games between November 1907 and March 1908 – the last six of that run were all draws.
● Having lost just two of their first 29 games of 2022-23 in all competitions (W15 D12), Newcastle have since lost both of their last two matches, each by a 2-0 scoreline. The Magpies last lost three in a row in April 2022, and last did so without scoring in January 2021 (a run of four).
● Newcastle are one of three sides yet to win a Premier League game when conceding first this season, along with Brentford and Nottingham Forest. However, no side has shipped the first goal in fewer matches so far than the Magpies (5).
● Ederson’s next clean sheet for Man City will be his 100th in the Premier League. However, he’s conceded in each of his last five games since keeping his 99th shutout – only once has he conceded in more consecutive appearances (8 between December 2018 and January 2019).
● Erling Haaland has scored 27 Premier League goals this season, the most by a Man City player in a single campaign. Only two players have scored more in their debut season in the competition – Andy Cole (34 in 1993-94) and Kevin Phillips (30 in 1999-00).
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne is two away from 100 Premier League assists. The Belgian has provided seven assists against Newcastle (five of these at the Etihad Stadium), only doing so more against Southampton and Watford (9 each).
ARSENAL V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm We have five fixtures kicking off at 3pm, and we start with the shortest price of the day as league leaders Arsenal host Bournemouth. It’s been an excellent week for Arsenal – they played Everton in their game in hand on Wednesday night, and ran out easy 4-0 winners to go five points clear at the top of the table. What a strong position that is. Bournemouth lost 4-1 to Manchester City last weekend, but they won’t be too bothered about that. Losing to Manchester City isn’t going to be the reason they go down this season! They recorded a massive 1-0 win over Wolves prior to that, and that has put them back in with a chance of staying up. They slipped back into the bottom three last weekend, and now they have another very difficult fixture. Their football just hasn’t been good enough this season – their squad doesn’t appear to be Premier League level in my opinion. Even in the 1-0 win over Wolves, they still conceded an xG higher than they created. They have issues at the back, as well as up front. They are conceding an average xG of 1.8 per game this season and only creating 1.0. Arsenal are a very short price at 1.24, but it’s hard to see anything bar a comfortable home win here. I’d recommend Arsenal for any Acca this weekend!
With Arsenal trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value. The obvious places to start are the goal and handicap markets. Given Bournemouth have been conceding so many goals this season, it’s hard not to see Arsenal scoring a few here. Arsenal have been fantastic going forward this season – their average xG created is 2.0 and we all know that they are a lot more comfortable at home. This could be another long afternoon for Bournemouth! The market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.59 – I feel Arsenal will do most of the damage here, and I much prefer Arsenal -2.5 goals at 2.76. The 1.72 on Arsenal -1.5 goals is also a very appealing price, and I couldn’t put anyone off either. I’m going to take a chance on the bigger odds though. Arsenal have got over their blip a few weeks ago, and Bournemouth have looked very average this season – with Arsenal in a good place at the moment, this is the type of fixture they tend to do really well in.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Arsenal -2.5 goals to beat Bournemouth at 2.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Arsenal have won all six of their home games against Bournemouth in all competitions, by an aggregate score of 17-2. Only against Gainsborough Trinity (8/8) do the Gunners have a better 100% win record at home.
● Bournemouth have never kept a Premier League clean sheet against Arsenal, winning just one of their 11 meetings with them in the competition (D2 L8).
● Since losing 2-0 to Brentford on the opening day last season, Arsenal have won their last eight Premier League meetings with promoted sides. They last had a longer such winning run between January 2002 and February 2003 (9).
● Arsenal have lost just one of their last 32 home league games kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday (W25 D6), going down 2-1 against Brighton in April last season.
● Bournemouth have lost all eight of their Premier League games against teams starting the day top of the table, conceding 27 goals in the process.
● Bournemouth have won just one of their last nine Premier League games (D2 L6), though it did come in their last away match (1-0 at Wolves). The Cherries haven’t won consecutive Premier League away games since October 2018.
● Since the resumption of the Premier League following the World Cup break, Bournemouth have won fewer points (5) and scored fewer goals (4) than any other side in the competition.
● Bournemouth have conceded a league-high 48 Premier League goals this season, conceding at least 50 in each of their previous five campaigns. Two more goals conceded will see them become the fourth team to play in as many as six different Premier League seasons and concede at least 50 goals each time, after Norwich City (10), Watford (8) and Queens Park Rangers (7).
● Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard has been involved in seven goals in his last six Premier League games against promoted sides, scoring five and assisting two. He’s netted in all three such games this season, including a brace at Bournemouth in the reverse fixture.
● With four goals and three assists, Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has been involved in seven goals in his last six Premier League appearances against promoted sides. However, the only game in this run in which he didn’t score or assist a goal was the Gunners’ 3-0 win at Bournemouth in August.
ASTON VILLA V CRYSTAL PALACE
3pm With so much action on Saturday, sides playing at the top and bottom of the table – this is the type of fixture to get lost! It’s definitely only getting two minutes on Match Of The Day unless anything dramatic happens. Aston Villa host Crystal Palace with both sides sitting right beside each other in the mid-table. Aston Villa actually have the same amount of points as Chelsea at the moment, but I feel that says more about what a disappointing season Chelsea are having more so than Villa! Unai Emery has definitely come in and done a good job with Villa, but we have two average sides here. They are too good to be involved in the relegation battle, and too average to go past mid-table. I always wonder is it better to have a bit of drama in a relegation battle compared to sitting in mid-table all season with no real buzz. Palace have been very poor this season in my opinion, but they have been grinding out results to their credit. Their stats are very poor – average xG created is only 1.1 and their average conceded is 1.7. Those are stats you see from sides in the relegation battle to be fair.
They have gotten away with a lot at the back – their average conceded goals works out at 1.3 which is a big difference. They are six points away from the relegation zone and that 0.4 difference in xG is a reflection of that gap. The xG table actually puts them in the relegation zone. They won’t go down this season, but they might be in the mix next season if things don’t change. They have picked up five draws from their last six games however, and they deserved their last two against Brentford and Liverpool. Villa recorded a 2-0 win away to Everton last weekend, but their xG conceded of 1.88 was a worry. They have had a difficult fixture list lately having to play Manchester City and Arsenal back-to-back. I’m going to keep stakes small in this one because Emery has shown that he doesn’t mind attacking, but I feel we have two average sides here who aren’t great in front of goal. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.65 which is a tempting bet, but I like the look of Both Teams Not To Score at 1.86 instead. I feel these two will cancel each other out, and Palace have been very limited going forward too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 or a 1-0 Villa win.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstCrl
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa have lost just one of their 10 Premier League home games against Crystal Palace (W5 D4), going down 1-0 in December 2013.
● Following their 3-1 win at Selhurst Park back in August, Crystal Palace are looking to complete just their second Premier League double over Aston Villa, previously doing so in 2013-14.
● Aston Villa have scored in all 11 of their Premier League games under Unai Emery, having failed to score in six of their 13 before his arrival this season. It’s the Villans’ longest scoring streak in the competition since a run of 17 between August/December 2009.
● Crystal Palace are on the longest current winless run in the Premier League, failing to win any of their eight games in 2023 so far (D5 L3). Five of their last six games have been drawn – including each of the last three – with the Eagles drawing more Premier League matches than any other side since the start of last season (24).
● Aston Villa’s last two home league games have both been 4-2 defeats, against Leicester and Arsenal respectively. The Villans have never conceded 4+ goals in three consecutive top-flight home games before, while the only sides to do so in the Premier League are Derby (May 2008) and West Brom (January 2021).
● Only Bournemouth (19) have conceded more goals from set piece situations (including penalties) than Aston Villa (15) in the Premier League this season, while a league-high 43% of Crystal Palace’s goals so far this term have come from set pieces (9/21).
● Since going 2-0 ahead after 36 minutes at Bournemouth in December, Crystal Palace haven’t scored in the first half in any of their last eight Premier League games. They last had a longer such run between April and August 2016 (10 games).
● Aston Villa boss Unai Emery won none of his three Premier League games against Crystal Palace in his time at Arsenal (D2 L1) – he’s only faced Liverpool and Wolves (4 each) more often without winning in the competition.
● Last time out at Everton, Ollie Watkins became the first Aston Villa player to score in five consecutive Premier League appearances. With eight goals so far this season, he could become the first Villa player to reach double figures in three consecutive top-flight campaigns since Christian Benteke (2012-13 to 2014- 15).
● Since the start of last season, Crystal Palace have won just 10% of their Premier League games that Wilfried Zaha hasn’t played (1/10), compared to 31% when the Ivorian features (16/52).
BRIGHTON V WEST HAM
3pm West Ham were one of the sides in action mid-week in the FA Cup. They faced a tough task away to Manchester United after they had just won the Carabao Cup at the weekend. They ended up losing 3-1 in heart breaking fashion really with two goals coming after 90 minutes. West Ham played very well though – it took United until the 77th minute to score, and to be honest West Ham had so many chances before that they should have had the game already won. If they can repeat that kind of performance they will have a good chance of getting a result here. Brighton were also in FA Cup action midweek, grinding out a 1-0 win away to Stoke and they have a Quarter-Final to look forward to now – they had a pretty easy draw too against Grimsby Town so they should be able to get to the Semi-Finals. Obviously both Manchester clubs still being in the competition is their main worry, but they have the talent to trouble the Manchester clubs if/when they meet. Brighton have dropped plenty of points in the Premier League recently, however they have been very unlucky. It’s almost classic Brighton at this stage, create a load of chances but fail to take them.
They lost 1-0 at home to Fulham while creating an xG of 2.77 and conceding 0.29. Then they had to settle for a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace while creating an xG of 2.74, and only conceding 0.81. They really need to start taking their chances – even in their win over Bournemouth at the start of February they only scored once but their xG was again over 2. Their average xG created this season is 1.9, and West Ham have a tough task again here. The Hammers have been poor at the road this season – nearly all their points have come at home. Away from home they have only managed six points all season, and although they played well midweek in the FA Cup it’s hard to see past the home win here. I’m going to reduce stakes because obviously West Ham have put together two decent performances now, but their away form has been very poor and Brighton play fantastic football – the 1.85 is worth taking.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat West Ham at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriWes
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton have never lost in 11 previous Premier League meetings with West Ham (W5 D6), both the most they’ve faced a side without losing and the most West Ham have faced an opponent without winning in the competition.
● West Ham have never kept a clean sheet against Brighton in the Premier League (11 games), though they’ve only failed to score on one of their five visits to the Amex Stadium in the competition.
● Brighton lost 1-0 at home to Fulham in their last league game – only once this season have they lost consecutive Premier League matches, doing so against Tottenham and Brentford in October. 71% of the Seagulls’ league defeats this season have been against London sides (5/7).
● Following their 4-0 win against Nottingham Forest last time out, West Ham are looking to win consecutive league games for just the second time this season, beating Wolves and Fulham in October.
● West Ham have won just two of their last 20 Premier League away games (D4 L14), and are winless in 10 since a 1-0 win at Aston Villa in August (D3 L7). The Hammers last had a longer run without a league win on the road between December 2014 and May 2015 (12).
● No team has scored more goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League matches than Brighton this season (9), while West Ham are the only side yet to score in this timeframe so far.
● West Ham are averaging 13.2 shots per game in the Premier League this season, their highest since 2015- 16 (14.7). However, just 27.4% of their total attempts have been on target (87/317), their lowest ratio on record in a single Premier League campaign (since 1997-98).
● West Ham striker Danny Ings scored a brace in Aston Villa’s 2-1 win at Brighton earlier this season – no player has ever scored multiple goals against an opponent with two different teams in a single Premier League campaign.
● Brighton forward Danny Welbeck has scored six goals in all competitions against West Ham (1 for Man Utd, 3 for Arsenal, 2 for Brighton) – against no side has he scored more in his career in English football.
● Jarrod Bowen has been involved in four goals in his last five Premier League games for West Ham (2 goals, 2 assists), twice as many as in his first 19 appearances this season (2 goals).
CHELSEA V LEEDS
3pm Chelsea host Leeds next, and this definitely looks the pick of the 3pm fixtures. Chelsea are in a desperate position at the moment, and Graham Potter must be feeling the heat. We all know how trigger happy Chelsea are with managers, and surely we are coming to that point now – he is a few disappointing results away from getting sacked. It was be an incredible backwards step for Potter after doing such a good job with Brighton – he had to take the offer to manage a Champions League club, but it just hasn’t worked out well for him, so far. Chelsea have been unlucky to go so long without a win, they finished the game with an xG of 2.0 in the 1-0 loss to Southampton, they were the better side in the 1-0 loss to Dortmund too in the Champions League. Finished the draw against Fulham with an xG of over double what they conceded and then away to Fulham finished the game with an xG of 2.74 in a 2-1 loss. They have been playing good football and creating chances, but they aren’t taking them. Football is a fickle game too, it doesn’t take long for morale to go low and the fans to get on your back. Put simply, Chelsea need a win soon.
Another side who are in “need a win” mode is Leeds, because they are slap-bang in the relegation battle. They got out of the bottom three with a huge 1-0 win over Southampton last weekend, but that came with home advantage and most of their problems have come away from home. They lost away to Fulham midweek in the FA Cup, but they have only managed six points away from home in the Premier League this season. That’s the joint-lowest return away from home. If you are a Chelsea fan, you’d be delighted to see a fixture like this but how can you be confident at the moment!? I wouldn’t be comfortable backing Chelsea at 1.69, but I do believe they will win here – they are playing well enough to win, I just don’t want to put money on them at the moment! You always get an entertaining game with Leeds, and I feel the better bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.9. Chelsea have been creating a lot of chances, they just need to start taking them. Leeds have been woeful at the back at times this season, and we should see goals here. This is a fascinating game with all the talking points, but it is also a game for low stakes in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Chelsea have won their last five Premier League home games against Leeds and are unbeaten in their last six against them at Stamford Bridge (D1) since a 2-0 loss in December 1999.
● Following their 3-0 win at Elland Road in August, Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since their title winning campaign of 1991-92, when they won 3-0 at home and 1-0 away.
● After winning their first three Premier League games under Graham Potter, Chelsea have won just two of their last 15 (D6 L7). It’s their fewest wins over a 15+ game period in the competition since winning two of 19 between December 1994 and April 1995 under Glenn Hoddle.
● Chelsea haven’t scored more than once in any of their last nine Premier League games, netting just four goals in total in this time – only once have they had a longer such run in the competition, going 17 games between August and December 1993.
● No side has won fewer Premier League away games (1) or away points (6) than Leeds United this season, with their one away win coming at Liverpool in October.
● Chelsea have lost their last three games in all competitions, failing to score a single goal. They’ve not lost more consecutively since October/November 1993 (6), while they’ve not lost four in a row without scoring since March 1929.
● Chelsea have scored just 23 goals in their 24 Premier League games this season, their lowest at this stage of a campaign since 1993-94 (22). With 25 goals conceded, this is the latest into a campaign the Blues have a negative goal difference since 2015-16 (-2 after 25 games).
● Leeds won their first match under Javier Gracia against Southampton last time out – the only manager to win their first two Premier League games with the Whites is Terry Venables in August 2002.
● This is Javier Gracia’s second Premier League game in charge as Leeds boss – his second game in the competition as Watford manager was also against Chelsea, with the Spaniard beating the Blues 4-1 at Vicarage Road.
● After providing an assist in each of his first three Premier League games this season, Leeds’ Jack Harrison has assisted just two more goals in his last 19 appearances in the league. He did, however, set up Junior Firpo’s winner against Southampton last time out.
WOLVES V TOTTENHAM
3pm We finish the 3pm fixtures with Wolves hosting Spurs. This is an interesting betting heat – most of Spurs poor performances have come away from home this season, and you can see that the market doesn’t have much faith in them at 2.32. I wouldn’t say there was a huge difference in the performance level of Wolves at home or away, but they have been playing decent football recently. Obviously Wolves have been involved in the relegation battle this season, so their level hasn’t been too high and their stats haven’t been that good over all. However, they hammered Liverpool 3-0 here recently, grinded out a 2-1 win over Southampton and didn’t deserve to lose against Bournemouth here finishing the game with a higher xG figure. They had to play away to Liverpool midweek, and lost 2-0 without much attacking on display. It is hard to play an Anfield, especially when Liverpool are on form, and Wolves will be more comfortable with home advantage here. Spurs lost as well midweek away to Sheffield United in the FA Cup. That was clearly a disappointing result, but as I said in my preview of that game it’s just hard to trust Spurs away from home this season. A lot of their poor performances have come away from home and they have been creating low xG figures on the road.
At the moment, I just find it difficult to back Spurs away from home. You’d want to be getting a very good value price to consider backing them in my opinion. At odds of 2.32 it’s hard to make the case that they should be much shorter. I know Wolves are hardly a side to rely on, but they have been playing reasonably good football this season. I would expect them to sit back here and aim to frustrate Spurs – given the lack of chances created by Spurs away from home this season, that tactic could easily work here. I’m not going to lay Spurs at 2.32, but I am happy to back Under 2.5 goals at 1.8. It’s very rare that we see a lot of goals in Wolves games – indeed the actual goals scored in their Premier League games this season works out at 2.1. Spurs might be able to grind out a 1-0 win in the end, but I just don’t trust them to get the job done here – I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a 0-0 in the end but Under 2.5 goals really stands out.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolTot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Wolves haven’t won any of their last six home league games against Tottenham (D2 L4), since a 1-0 victory in February 2010.
● Following their 1-0 win against them in August, Tottenham are looking to complete the Premier League double over Wolves for just the second time, previously doing so in the 2003-04 campaign.
● Of all fixtures to have been played at least 15 times in Premier League history, only Leicester against Manchester City (57%) has been won by the away side a higher share of the time than Tottenham vs Wolves (53% – nine away wins in 17 meetings).
● Wolves have won two of their last three Premier League home games, as many as in their previous 12 at Molineux (D3 L7). They did lose their last home league game 1-0 against Bournemouth, however.
● After winning seven consecutive Premier League matches in 3pm Saturday games between 2019 and 2022, Tottenham lost their last such match 4-1 at Leicester last month. They last lost consecutive such games in the 2018-19 campaign, one of which was against Wolves.
● After a run of 10 games in which they kept one clean sheet and conceded 21 goals, Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five Premier League games (W4 L1). They’re looking to record three consecutive shutouts for the first time since their final three games of the 2021-22 season.
● Tottenham have lost two of their last three away league games (W1), as many as in their previous 14 on the road (W7 D5). They lost 4-1 at Leicester last time out but haven’t lost consecutive away league games since September 2021.
● Tottenham have scored a league-high 12 goals from corners this season. Seven of these have been netted by Harry Kane, the most by a player on record in a single campaign in the competition (since 2006-07).
● Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has scored four goals in his seven Premier League games against Spurs, though three of these have come away from home. He’s only scored more against Everton (5) and Southampton (5) in the competition.
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored the opening goal in seven different Premier League games this season, more than any other player. Tottenham have gone on to win all seven of these games, without conceding a single goal.
SOUTHAMPTON V LEICESTER
5.30pm We finish Saturday in the Premier League with the most open betting heat of the weekend! There’s only ten ticks between the sides at the time of writing as Southampton host Leicester. Both sides have to pick themselves up after crashing out of the FA Cup during the week against lower league opposition. They will both be kicking themselves, and I have to say it was very disappointing to see Southampton lose to Grimsby Town never mind Leicester losing to Blackburn. Leicester moved away from the relegation zone with wins over Aston Villa and Spurs, but they start the weekend only three points away from the bottom three after losing to Manchester United and Arsenal. You can’t be too harsh on those results to be fair, and that makes this game huge. For Southampton, it’s a must win game – they have home advantage against a side who have been pretty poor this season and they sit nailed to the bottom of the table. A win wouldn’t even get them out of the bottom three, just back into the mix. For Leicester, a loss would obviously put them under huge pressure again while a win would definitely move them away from danger. Nottingham Forest and Everton play on Sunday which is another massive game – we should know a lot more about the relegation battle by the end of this weekend.
There really isn’t much between the sides in the market here. Leicester are the marginal favourites at the time of writing, but it wouldn’t take much to make Southampton favourites – we might see some movement on the team news. With both sides playing poor football this season, it would be wise to keep stakes small here. Leicester have been conceding an average xG of 1.7 this season and only creating 1.1, Southampton actually have marginally better stats as their average xG conceded is 1.6 while their average created is the same at 1.1. We have really fine margins here – but you have to ask as well where would Southampton be without that shock win against Chelsea. They would be miles off the pace – I don’t fancy laying Leicester here because Southampton have lost way too many games this season and I feel the best option to finish the day is the draw at 3.45. Both sides are very limited, and they can cancel each other out.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouLei
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Southampton are looking to complete the league double over Leicester for the first time since 2007-08 in the Championship, while they last did so as a top-flight club in 1986-87.
● Since losing 3-0 at St Mary’s in January 2017, Leicester are unbeaten in their last five away league games against Southampton (W3 D2), scoring 18 goals in the process (3.6 per game).
● Leicester have won eight of their last 10 Premier League games against sides starting the day bottom of the table (D1 L1), with the only defeat coming at Norwich in February 2020. The Foxes have won each of their last four against such opposition by an aggregate score of 12-2.
● Southampton are winless in their last eight Premier League home games (D2 L6), losing each of the last five in a row. They’ve never lost six consecutive home games in their league history.
● Leicester have conceded the first goal in each of their last seven league games (W2 D1 L4) – they’ve never conceded first in eight consecutive Premier League matches before. However, Southampton have conceded the first goal more than any other Premier League side this season (18).
● Leicester’s Premier League away games have seen more goals scored than any other side’s this season (49), with the Foxes having the fourth highest goal tally on the road (21), and the third highest goals conceded total (28).
● 10 of Leicester’s 36 Premier League goals this season have come from outside the box, both a league-high total and percentage (28%). It’s their second highest total of goals from distance since they returned to the top-flight in 2014, after their tally of 12 in 2020-21.
● Southampton have the youngest average starting XI in the Premier League this season (24y 268d). They’ve given 5,388 minutes to players aged under 21, only doing so more in a single Premier League campaign in 1997-98 (5,609) and 2013-14 (6,627).
● Leicester’s James Maddison has scored more Premier League goals against Southampton than he has any other opponent (5), and has netted in each of his last three appearances against Saints.
● Since the start of last season, Leicester have won 41% of their Premier League games (18/44) and averaged 1.8 goals per game when James Maddison starts, compared to winning 17% (3/18) and averaging 1 goal per game when he doesn’t.