THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League action with extended stats and a recommended bet. We’re underway at 12.30pm with NEWCASTLE v CHELSEA. The highlight of the weekend looks to be SPURS v MAN CITY at 5.30pm.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
NEWCASTLE V CHELSEA
12.30pm After what felt like a long International break, Premier League football returns on Saturday! We have a fantastic day ahead, made even better with all football bets 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We start the day with Newcastle hosting Chelsea with Frank Lampard’s men in excellent form prior to the International break. Since drawing 0-0 away to Manchester United, they have won four from four in all competitions while scoring 14 goals and only conceding once.
Newcastle lost their last game 2-0 to the in-form Southampton, but they managed to beat Everton 2-1 here in their last home game in a very good performance. That was their best performance of the season, as they have been very lucky at times to collect points – especially the 1-1 with Spurs! Chelsea are 1.53 and for me that looks good value, especially with 0% commission. Chelsea will outclass this Newcastle side – we have landed a nice few bets on Chelsea at these prices in the last few weeks against similar opposition and we can start the day with another winning Chelsea bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Chelsea to beat Newcastle at 1.53 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQnwcche
- Newcastle have lost just one of their last seven Premier League home games against Chelsea (W5 D1), winning this exact fixture last season courtesy of Isaac Hayden’s 90th minute strike.
- Chelsea have won five of their last seven Premier League meetings with Newcastle (L2), though the Blues have only managed to keep one clean sheet in this run – a 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge last season.
- Newcastle have won two of their last three Premier League home games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 11 at St James’ Park (W2 D4 L5). The Magpies are looking to pick up consecutive home league wins for the first time since December 2019.
- Chelsea are unbeaten in six Premier League games (W3 D3), with only Spurs on a longer current such run in the competition (7). The Blues have netted at least three goals in five of those six games, failing to score in the other.
- No side has had fewer shots in the Premier League this season than Newcastle (64). However, the Magpies have scored 10 goals, giving them a shot conversion rate of 15.6% – their highest on record in a single top-flight campaign (since 1997-98).
- Chelsea have had more 10+ open play passing sequences (157) and more build up attacks (29), than any other side in the Premier League this season.
- Chelsea are the highest scorers in the Premier League so far this season with 20 goals. The Blues have also netted a league-high 14 goals in the second half of matches, while Newcastle have scored the highest ratio of their Premier League goals after half-time this season (80% – 8/10).
- Chelsea’s Timo Werner has been involved in nine goals in his last seven appearances in all competitions (7 goals, 2 assists), scoring in each of his last four. The last player to score in five consecutive appearances for Chelsea was Didier Drogba in November 2009.
- Chelsea’s Timo Werner could become just the fourth different German player to score in three consecutive Premier League matches, after Jürgen Klinsmann (3 runs), Dietmar Hamann (March 1999) and Leroy Sané (October 2017).
- In the two Premier League games in which he’s started, Hakim Ziyech has been involved in 57% of Chelsea’s seven Premier League goals, scoring once and providing three assists.
ASTON VILLA V BRIGHTON
3pm Out of today’s four fixtures, this one will probably be the least talked about. However, it is the most open market of the day, and it’s a fascinating game in its own right. Aston Villa got back to winning ways prior to the International break with a 3-0 win away to Arsenal. That was needed for their confidence after losing to Southampton and Leeds, and having to listen to everyone say their “bubble had burst.” Despite being 4-0 down against Southampton, they actually came back strongly and they have an excellent chance to get another three points against this Brighton side.
Brighton have been unlucky at times this season, but the reality is they need to create more and what they do create; they need to score. They were desperately unlucky to lose to Manchester United and while they can say they were unlucky to only draw with Burnley and Crystal Palace – they can’t keep saying they are unlucky. I think we’ll have a good game here, Brighton aren’t converting their chances but surely they start scoring eventually and Villa have been excellent value going forward this season. Over 2.5 goals is worth backing at 1.82 for me in what should be an open and good game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQastbha
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last eight league meetings with Brighton (W4 D4), since a 0-1 defeat in December 1980.
- Brighton have never won away against Aston Villa in all competitions, drawing three and losing nine of their 12 games. Indeed, the Seagulls have lost all five of their visits to Villa Park in the top-flight.
- Aston Villa have won five of their seven Premier League games so far this season (L2), netting 18 goals in the process. It took the Villans 13 games to score as many Premier League goals last season, while they picked up their fifth win in their 19th game in 2019-20.
- Aston Villa have won three Premier League games by a margin of 3+ goals this season, as many as they had in their previous four campaigns in the competition combined (1 in 2013-14, 1 in 2014-15, 0 in 2015-16, 1 in 2019-20). They last won more by such a margin in a single top-flight season back in 2007-08 (6).
- Brighton are winless in their last six Premier League matches (D3 L3). However, 12 of the Seagulls’ last 15 Premier League points have been won in away games (80%).
- Since their promotion to the Premier League in 2017, Brighton have had more goalless draws than any other side in the competition (12). Meanwhile, in Premier League history Aston Villa have had more games finish 0-0 than any other side (100).
- Aston Villa have made the fewest starting XI lineup changes (3) and have used the fewest different players (18) so far in the Premier League this season. Despite this, only Chelsea (11) have had more different goalscorers than the Villans this term (7, excluding own goals).
- No team has conceded more fouls than Brighton in the Premier League so far this season (106), while no side has won more than Aston Villa (103). Since the start of last season, Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has been fouled 196 times in the Premier League, at least 52 more than any other player.
- Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish has scored in each of his last four appearances against Brighton in all competitions, netting in all three meetings last season. He’s scored more goals against the Seagulls than he has any other opponent in his senior career (4).
- Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins has scored six goals in his last five Premier League appearances, with Jack Grealish providing the assist for half of those goals.
TOTTENHAM V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm The highlight of the Premier League weekend! Mourinho and Guardiola do battle once again after some incredible games with them in charge. Indeed, many say the rivalry in La Liga was the driving force between Guardiola taking a break from football. In had news in the week that he has signed a new contract with Man City and you don’t need me to tell you how good that is for the club. However, they need to start climbing the table this season! They started the weekend in 10th position which is very unlike them, and it’s Spurs who are the in-form team heading into this fixture!
There will no doubt be a lot of Man City backers at 1.88, but I just can’t have them at this price. You can clearly see looking at their xG that they haven’t been themselves this season. Not only are they conceding goals, I’d be more worried about their xG going forward. They aren’t scoring or creating the volume of goals that they have been in prior seasons. Spurs are the opposite, they have been creating chances for fun and while Mourinho can sometimes be quite negative in big games, surely he will see the opportunity to attack this City side. I fully expect a close game here and the City lay looks cracking value.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester City to beat Tottenham at 1.88 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQtotmnc
- Tottenham won this exact fixture 2-0 last season, ending a run of six Premier League games without a win against Manchester City (D2 L4).
- Only against Chelsea (26) have Manchester City lost more Premier League games than they have vs Tottenham (24).
- Tottenham have won both of their meetings with Man City at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in all competitions, last winning three home games in a row against the Citizens between 2005-2009 (a run of 6).
- Tottenham have only lost two of their 20 Premier League games against Man City when above them in the table (W15 D3), though this is the first such meeting since January 2017 (2-2).
- Following their opening weekend defeat against Everton, Tottenham are now on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League (7 – W5 D2). Spurs are looking to win four consecutive league games for the first time since February 2019 under Mauricio Pochettino.
- Manchester City have scored 10 goals in their seven Premier League games this season, their fewest at this stage of a season since 2010-11 (9) and 17 fewer than they had after seven games last season. Indeed, the Citizens have scored exactly once in each of their last five Premier League games, having netted 16 in their previous five.
- This will be the 24th meeting in all competitions between Spurs boss José Mourinho and Man City’s Pep Guardiola – Mourinho’s 10 defeats in these games is more than he’s suffered against any other manager, while Guardiola has only beaten Manuel Pellegrini more often (12).
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has been involved in 23 goals in just 14 games in all competitions this season (13 goals, 10 assists), at least eight more than any other Premier League player. Indeed, the next highest player on the list is teammate Son Heung-min (10 goals, 5 assists).
- Man City’s Gabriel Jesus has been involved in 11 goals in his last 11 games in all competitions (8 goals, 3 assists). The Brazilian has scored in each of his last three appearances for Man City, last scoring in four in a row in April 2018.
- Only against Newcastle (15) has Man City’s Sergio Agüero scored more Premier League goals than he has against Spurs (11). However, the Argentine has scored just once in his last nine against Tottenham, having scored 10 in his first seven against them.
MANCHESTER UNITED V WEST BROM
8pm “We end the day with a relegation battle” will be the joke this week from everyone bar Manchester United and West Brom fans! United desperately needed that 3-1 win over Everton prior to the International break, but they still find themselves starting the weekend in 14th position with only ten points from seven games. They have a game in hand which might push them up the table, but it just seems so hard to have confidence in them at the moment. They’ve yet to win at Old Trafford this season, and while they should beat this West Brom side, you get the feeling they will make hard work of doing it.
Their main problem this season has been creating chances. They simply haven’t created enough to win their home games. Even against the likes of Arsenal in a very close game, they created an xG of only 0.39. That was a boring game, because if you take out the Arsenal plenty they only created 0.27 but that has been United’s problem – it’s a similar story when they hosted Chelsea. Clearly West Brom are struggling and start the day in the bottom three, but if they come here to play for a draw then it might just happen. United will have trouble breaking them down and while they might win in the end, I’m staying away from the home win at 1.33. I like under 2.5 goals at 2.38 for a small investment. I can see United playing reasonably poorly, but winning 1-0 or 2-0 against a poor West Brom side.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.38 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQmunwba
- Manchester United haven’t lost consecutive league matches against West Brom since December 1980, with the Baggies winning their last Premier League encounter with Man Utd 1-0 in April 2018.
- West Brom have won three of their last five away league games against Man Utd (D1 L1), including their last such visit in April 2018 (1-0). The Baggies had won just one of their last 31 league visits to face Man Utd prior to this run.
- Man Utd have failed to score in three of their last four home league games against West Brom, as many as in their previous 53 such matches against them. Indeed, the Red Devils have failed to score in their last two against West Brom at home, last going three in a row without scoring at Old Trafford vs an opponent against Arsenal in September 1982.
- Manchester United are winless in their four Premier League home games so far this season (D1 L3), while they’re winless in their last six at home overall in the competition (D3 L3). They last failed to win any of their first five at home in a league season back in 1972-73, while they last had a longer overall winless home run in March 1978 (7 games).
- Manchester United have conceded more home goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (10). Meanwhile, the Red Devils have lost three home league games already, only losing more in two Premier League campaigns (7 in 2013-14, 6 in 2001-02).
- West Brom are winless in their eight Premier League games so far this season (D3 L5), failing to score in four of their last five. Only in 1985-86 have the Baggies failed to win any of their first nine league games from the start of a campaign.
- No side has gained more points from losing positions than Manchester United in the Premier League this season (9), with the Red Devils coming back to win three of their five games in which they’ve trailed. Indeed, Man Utd have only opened the scoring once in the Premier League this season, going on to lose that game 1-6 against Tottenham.
- West Brom are one of three sides yet to concede in the opening 15 minutes of their Premier League games so far this season (along with Arsenal and Aston Villa), while only Fulham (5) have conceded more in this timeframe than Manchester United (4).
- Of the 47 players to score at least 10 Premier League goals for Manchester United, Bruno Fernandes has scored the lowest ratio of them in home games, with just three of his 13 strikes coming at Old Trafford (23%).
- Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes is one of just two players to have both had 20+ shots (20) and created 20+ chances (20) in the Premier League this season, along with Mohamed Salah (34 shots, 21 chances created).
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