THE STRIKER: previews Saturday’s Premier League games between BRIGHTON v LIVERPOOL, MANCHESTER CITY v BURNLEY, EVERTON v LEEDS and WEST BROM v SHEFFIELD UNITED with extended stats and a recommended bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BRIGHTON V LIVERPOOL
12.30pm Another cracking day ahead in the Premier League and all football bets are 0% commission on BETDAQ Betting Exchange again on Saturday! Apart from Man City at home later, we have some very competitive betting heats this weekend. After City, the next lowest price is actually Liverpool here who are trading 1.66. They suffered a surprise defeat in the Champions League midweek at home to Atalanta. That was a surprise because they had hammered Atalanta 5-0 before the International break, it was a very lacklustre performance and you’d have to be a little worried about how little they created – their xG was 0.20!
Liverpool had been in great form heading into that fixture, so perhaps we should just put it down to a poor night at the office. They face a Brighton side who have struggled at the start of the season, but they would have been delighted to beat Aston Villa 2-1 last weekend and open up a bit of distance between themselves and the bottom three. Brighton have put in some decent performances this season, but I can’t see them living with Liverpool here. The 1.66 is too big to turn down, and I’ll just adjust my stakes a little lower looking at the xG of 0.20 from the weekend – but Brighton are much easier opposition and Liverpool are a must for any BETDAQ Multiple this weekend in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Liverpool to beat Brighton at 1.66 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQbhaLiv
- Brighton have never won a top-flight home game against Liverpool (D3 L4), losing all three in the Premier League by an aggregate score of 2-9. Indeed, the Seagulls’ only home victory over Liverpool in league competition came in the second tier in January 1961 (3-1).
- Liverpool have won each of their last nine meetings with Brighton in all competitions, netting 27 goals in the process and conceding just seven.
- Following their 2-1 win at Aston Villa last time out, Brighton are looking to pick up back-to-back league wins for the first time since November 2019. However, each of the Seagulls’ last four Premier League wins have been away from home, winning none of their last eight at the Amex Stadium.
- Brighton have never won in 14 previous attempts against reigning top-flight champions (D2 L12), losing all six such games in the Premier League by an aggregate score of 2-21. Both points they’ve picked up in these matches have been against Liverpool (2-2 in February 1981, 2-2 in March 1983).
- Liverpool are winless in their last three Premier League away games (D2 L1), last going four without a win on the road between January-March 2017 (5 games).
- Only Chelsea (22) have scored more Premier League goals than Liverpool (21) this season, with the Reds the only side to score in every game so far this term.
- Liverpool’s Premier League games have seen a league-high 23 goals in the first half so far this season, with the Reds scoring a league-high 12 and conceding a league-high 11 goals before half-time.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in eight goals in his six Premier League appearances against Brighton, scoring five and assisting three.
- Danny Welbeck netted his first Premier League goal for Brighton against Aston Villa last time out; he’s not scored in consecutive league appearances since January 2016 (vs Leicester and Man Utd for Arsenal).
- Liverpool’s Diogo Jota scored twice on his last Premier League visit to Brighton, in a 2-2 draw for Wolves last season. However, all four of the Portuguese’s league goals for the Reds so far have come at Anfield.
MANCHESTER CITY V BURNLEY
3pm When you’ve just had your first win of the season and got out of the bottom three, the last team who want to see for your next fixture is Man City away! Or is it? It’s clear to everyone now that City haven’t been themselves this season. We all know that they have had their issues at the back, but the problems this season have come going forward. You only have to look at their xG figures to see that they aren’t creating what they usually would. That has meant a lack of goals, and when you have consistent issues at the back and you aren’t scoring the same volume of goals – you drop points. We have seen exactly that with the games against Leeds and Spurs, and to a lesser extent Leicester who were excellent on the day against City.
It’s fair to say that City will get the job done here. Burnley have been reasonably poor this season. Perhaps you might say they have stayed at the same level, but they have just been lacking their ability to pick up points and grind out results. They are never going to create a lot of chances and blow teams away. I think City will get the job done here, and similar to Liverpool they are a good addition to BETDAQ Multiples, but with the 1.18 they are worth skipping over for my best bet. With City not creating a lot in front of goal, I’m surprise to see under 3.5 goals trading 1.76 and that looks like a cracking bet. A smooth City win is expected, but not 4-0+ in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 3.5 goals at 1.76 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQmciBur
- Manchester City have won their last six meetings with Burnley in all competitions by an aggregate score of 23-1.
- Burnley have won just one of their 12 Premier League meetings with Man City (D3 L8), beating them 1-0 in March 2015. The Clarets have shipped more Premier League goals against the Citizens than they have versus any other side (34).
- At home, Man City have won their last six meetings with Burnley by an aggregate score of 24-2, winning each of the last three by a 5-0 scoreline. In the history of the Football League, only Notts County have won four successive home games by 5+ goals against a specific opponent (all competitions), doing so against Port Vale between October 1893 and February 1907.
- Manchester City have failed to score more than once in any of their last six Premier League games, having netted at least twice in each of their seven previous matches. They last had a longer run of failing to score more than once in a league match between March-September 2006 (14 games).
- Manchester City are averaging 15.7 shots and 5.3 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, while they have a shot conversion rate of just 8% – all the lowest they’ve managed in a single campaign under Pep Guardiola so far.
- Manchester City have won 19 of their last 21 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday, with their two exceptions in that run coming against Crystal Palace (2-3 in December 2018, 2-2 in January 2020).
- Burnley are looking to pick up back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since June, having won their first game of the 2020-21 campaign last time out against Crystal Palace.
- Burnley’s Premier League games have seen just 16 goals scored this season (F4 A12), fewer than any other side. No side has scored fewer goals than the Clarets this season (4), with only West Brom (6) failing to score in more different games than Burnley (5).
- Man City’s Sergio Agüero has scored nine goals in his last nine appearances against Burnley in all competitions – the Clarets could become the eighth different side against whom the Argentine reaches double figures for goals scored for Manchester City.
- Man City’s Riyad Mahrez has scored four goals in his last three Premier League appearances against Burnley, while he’s only netted more overall in the competition against Watford (7) than he has versus the Clarets (5).
EVERTON V LEEDS
5.30pm A fascinating fixture. I must say Leeds have really impressed me in the Premier League. From a neutral point of view, they have been excellent to watch. Even their 0-0 with Arsenal last weekend was a good game to watch, had plenty of chances and drama – they should have won too as they created an xG of 2.01! They started this matchday in 14th but their performances to me say they are a solid top ten team. I know their aim to is break into the top six possibly next season or the season after that, and what makes fixtures like this interesting is if they are indeed going to do that; they have to beat (or at least pick up points) against sides like Everton.
Everton finally got back to winning ways last weekend against Fulham but it wasn’t without high drama. Fulham will feel unlucky not to have drawn 3-3, especially with the missed penalty. There was a lot of hype about Everton after their good start, but they have fallen down and you’d probably say they are the same Everton side as last season – they just started fast! I’d expect a very good game here, and I feel Everton are too short at 2.08. Leeds have been putting in some excellent xG numbers, and with Everton leaking chances at the back Leeds can get a result here – Everton look way too short at 2.08.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Everton to beat Leeds at 2.08 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQevelee
- Everton are unbeaten in their last 13 top-flight home games against Leeds (W6 D7) since a 2-3 loss in August 1990. Indeed, in the Premier League, Everton have only faced Fulham at Goodison Park more often without defeat (14) than they have Leeds (12).
- Leeds won their last meeting with Everton in all competitions, winning 2-1 in a League Cup tie in September 2012. Their last league victory against the Toffees came in December 2001 (D2 L3 since).
- Everton have kept a clean sheet in eight of their last 10 home league games against Leeds; they’re looking to win three league games in a row at home against the Whites for the first time since December 1951.
- Everton lost their last Premier League home game against Man Utd; they’ve not lost consecutive home league games since September 2019, which involved defeats against a side from Manchester (Man City) and a Yorkshire club (Sheffield United).
- In their first four Premier League games this season, Leeds had 45 shots (11.3 per game), scoring nine goals for a conversion rate of 20%. In their last five league games, they’ve had 85 shots (17 per game), but have scored just five goals (6% conversion rate).
- Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has conceded 14 Premier League goals this season (excl. own goals), around four more than would be expected based on the quality of the shots on target he’s faced (xGoT), the biggest negative difference for a keeper in the competition this season.
- Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the Premier League’s highest goalscorer this season, netting 10 goals in nine games. In the competition’s history, only Les Ferdinand (13 in 1995-96) has ever scored more than 10 goals in his side’s first 10 games in a single campaign.
- Since joining Everton in 2018, Lucas Digne has created more chances than any other defender in the Premier League (159), while only Liverpool pair Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson (26 each) have more assists among defenders in that time than Digne (15).
- Patrick Bamford has scored in all four of Leeds’ Premier League away games this season – in the history of the competition, only Thierry Henry at Arsenal in 2001-02 has scored in each of his side’s first five games on the road in a single season.
- Patrick Bamford has scored in each of his last four away league games for Leeds – the last player to score in five consecutive away games for the club was Ian Lawson between April-October 1963.
WEST BROM V SHEFFIELD UNITED
8pm This might not be the most glamourous fixture of the weekend for the neutral fan, but it’s a huge fixture for both sides – even this early in the season. Both sides have been very poor and now odds on to go down, although Sheffield United are still hanging around 2.0 on BETDAQ for the drop. They sit rock bottom with only one point from nine games – they have the talent to stay up but as we seen with Watford last season, the longer you stay down there even if the performances improve it’s still very hard to battle back and get out of the bottom three because it’s so competitive. Simply put, they need to start winning games and this is a fantastic opportunity.
West Brom have been very poor this season. They have picked up three draws, hugely benefitting from some massive Chelsea errors at the start of the season, but their underlining numbers are very poor. They have only created an xG of more than 1 on one occasion against Burnley when they drew with an xG of 1.06. Sheffield United have less points, but they have played better football. They have also had to play Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool and Arsenal along with an in-form West Ham side last weekend and then Aston Villa when they were firing at the start of the season. I think Sheffield United start their season tonight and record their first win. The underlining numbers say 3.0 is a cracking bet, and I wouldn’t usually have three points at 3.0 but I feel this is fully worth it.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Sheffield United to beat West Brom at 3.0 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQwbashe
- This is the first ever Premier League meeting between West Brom and Sheffield United, the 885th different fixture to be played in the competition.
- Sheffield United won both meetings the last time they faced West Brom in a top-flight campaign, winning 2-0 away and 3-0 at home in the 1972-73 season.
- Sheffield United have won three of their last five away league games against West Brom (D1 L1), in a run stretching back to December 2001. The Blades have kept four clean sheets in those five games.
- Both West Brom and Sheffield United are winless in their nine Premier League games this season, with the Baggies only failing to win any of their first 10 to a league season in 1985-86, and the Blades only doing so in 1990-91.
- If this game between West Brom and Sheffield United finishes level, it will be just the third season in Premier League history that two sides have failed to win any of their opening 10 games, after 2012-13 (Reading and QPR) and 2018-19 (Newcastle and Huddersfield).
- Coming into this weekend’s games, no team has conceded more Premier League goals this season than West Brom (18), while no side has scored fewer than Sheffield United (4).
- Sheffield United are the only side yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this season. They’d kept four shutouts in their first nine games in the competition last season, while only three sides finished the 2019-20 campaign with more clean sheets than the Blades (13).
- Sheffield United have conceded the most goals from crosses (6), and the most headed goals (6) in the Premier League so far this season. The Blades had conceded just four headed goals, and eight goals from crosses in the whole of the 2019-20 campaign.
- West Brom have had fewer big chances than any other Premier League side so far this season (3), while they also have the lowest expected goals (xG) value in the division (4.7). Meanwhile, Sheffield United have the biggest negative difference between their xG and goals scored this season (8.6 xG, 4 goals), netting nearly five goals fewer than would normally be expected based on the quality of their chances.
- The home side has lost just one of the last 17 Premier League meetings between the bottom two sides (W11 D5), with Norwich going down 0-2 against Watford in November 2019.
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