CARABAO CUP FINAL: The Striker previews MAN U v NEWCASTLE as both sides bid to end a trophy drought. Find out the recommended BETDAQ bet.
MANCHESTER UNITED V NEWCASTLE
4.30pm We hit Wembley on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this Sunday for the final for the Carabao Cup! Despite the League Cup being viewed as a lower grade competition these days, it would be a fantastic win for either side. For Manchester United, it would break a seven year wait for a trophy which is too long for a club their size and for Newcastle it would be an excellent start to their new ownership, and a sign of bigger things to come too. What a fascinating Final ahead.
This must feel like the second Cup Final of the week for Manchester United after getting past Barcelona in the Europa League on Thursday night. Old Trafford was bouncing as United came from 1-0 down at half-time to win 2-1, and they really couldn’t be in a better place at the moment. Erik ten Hag has them playing full of confidence, and the win over Barcelona really shows that they have the belief back that they can beat anyone. A trophy would really be the icing on the cake for United’s season – they look pretty sure of getting back in the Champions League which would have been the target at the start of the season.
Unfortunately for Newcastle, they dropped out of the Champions League spots last weekend with a 2-0 loss against Liverpool. They lost a man early, and the game was over after that two goals down. I thought they played really well in the second half, and they did finish the game with an xG of 1.98 which is impressive with ten men. As we saw midweek in the Champions League though, Liverpool have been all over the place at the back! I’m not quite sure if this game comes at a good time or not for Newcastle – maybe they need a break from Premier League football given they have dropped so many points recently and just switch into Cup mode and only focus on winning in the 90 minutes.
I wouldn’t say that Newcastle have been on a bad run performance wise, but they have only managed one win in their last seven Premier League games. They have had to play Arsenal and Liverpool, but they have had a difficult fixture list. It would be unfair if we didn’t say they were unlucky though. They finished with an xG of 2.85 in the 0-0 Leeds game and 1.78 in the 0-0 against Crystal Palace. The rest of their dropped points look pretty fair to me. Over all, they are creating an average xG of 1.9 this season which is very impressive – that figure is actually higher than Manchester United’s which is 1.7. Both sides have been pretty solid at the back this season – again Newcastle’s average is better. They have an average xG conceded of only 1.1 compared to United at 1.3 – not much in it but you can’t help but be impressive by Newcastle.
Manchester United come into the game as the favourites. They are trading 2.26 at the time of writing, with Newcastle 3.6 and the draw is 3.45. I know Newcastle’s results haven’t been good in the Premier League lately, but they have still been creating a lot of chances. It’s tempting to lay United at 2.26 to have the draw on our side because I do expect a closer game than the odds suggest. However, I’m going to take a chance and back Newcastle at 3.6 – they have been very impressive this season and they look the value call here. I feel their recent run, along with the excellent results from United means Newcastle are a little bigger than they should be here in what should be an excellent Cup Final.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat Manchester United at 3.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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