THE STRIKER: previews the FA Cup third round games on Sunday between MANCHESTER CITY v BIRMINGHAM CITY, MARINE v TOTTENHAM and NEWPORT COUNTY v BRIGHTON with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
MANCHESTER CITY V BIRMINGHAM CITY
1.30pm An interesting day ahead in the FA Cup with some very short favourites. Will we see any shocks today? The magic of the Cup as they call it! Man City put in an impressive performance to reach the Carabao Cup Final midweek and it’s fair to say that we’ll see a lot of changes to the starting XI from Pep Guardiola here. The market still expects a very easy win with City trading 1.14 at the time of writing BETDAQ Betting Exchange. In fairness, it’s hard to see anything other than a very easy City win here. They have found their groove in recent weeks, and although we’ll see changes to the playing XI here, Birmingham are having a poor season.
Birmingham are sitting down in 18th position in the Championship and are without a win in their last six. Their xG figures are very worrying coming into a fixture like this! They are probably focusing on how little they have been creating, however from a City point of view I’d be worried about the chances they are giving away. From a handicap point of view today, City looks excellent value at 1.91 -2.5 goals. I don’t expect Birmingham to score looking at their xG figures and City can steamroll them.
The Striker says:
Two points win Manchester City -2.5 goals to beat Birmingham City at 1.91 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQMciBir
- This is the first FA Cup meeting between Man City and Birmingham since a third round tie in January 2001, Man City winning 3-2 at Maine Road.
- Birmingham are winless in their last 12 away games against Man City in all competitions (D2 L10), with this their first visit since a League Cup tie in September 2011 (0-2).
- Man City last failed to reach the FA Cup fourth round in the 2011-12 campaign, losing at home to Man Utd at this stage in that season. The Citizens have won their last five third round ties by an aggregate score of 23-2.
- Since beating Wolves 1-0 in 2011-12, Birmingham have been eliminated from their last seven FA Cup ties against Premier League opposition.
MARINE V TOTTENHAM
5pm Spurs are the shortest price of any side in the FA Cup third round as they trade 1.04! Yes that’s correct, 1.04! Obviously the gulf in class is absolutely massive here, although the media like to “big up” these games. It’s a great experience for the non-league side and if they pull off a shock then it makes big headlines. Jose Mourinho and Spurs in town will be excellent, and it’s just a shame their stadium can’t be packed because of Covid19. From a betting point of view, we’ll have to be looking around the side markets for a bit of value. I’m sure Spurs will be going into everyone’s BETDAQ Multiple this weekend, but I’d like to find a bet bigger than 1.04.
Mourinho will ring the changes here after Spurs beat Brentford midweek to get through to the Carabao Cup Final but even the Spurs third XI will be massively ahead of Marine in terms of class. The Spurs players will see this has an excellent opportunity to impressive too and push for a place in the starting XI. With that in mind I can only see a very easy Spurs win with plenty of goals. Over 4.5 goals is 1.7 with BETDAQ Sportsbook and that looks a nice value bet for me, but only for a small investment.
The Striker says:
One point win Over 4.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQMarTot
- This will be Marine’s first ever FA Cup match against a top-flight opponent.
- This will be Tottenham’s first FA Cup match against non-league opposition since January 1995, beating Altrincham 3-0 in a third round tie.
- This is just Marine’s second appearance in the FA Cup third round, going out at this stage in 1992-93 against Crewe Alexandra (1-3).
- Tottenham have progressed from 13 of their last 14 FA Cup third round ties, with the exception being a 0-2 loss at Arsenal in 2013-14.
NEWPORT COUNTY V BRIGHTON
7.45pm We finished the day with the most competitive market involving a Premier League side, however Brighton are still heavy odds on favourites as they trade 1.57 at the time of writing. It will be very interesting to see what sort of side Brighton name here, because Newport County won’t be a pushover by any means. They come into this fixture full of confidence as they sit top of League Two, and granted there’s a huge gulf in class this could be a tricky evening for Brighton who have been struggling lately in the Premier League.
I find these type of fixtures fascinating as Brighton are struggling to win in the Premier League, will probably make a few changes here and Newport County have the confidence of a winning side. I feel this one will be closer than odds of 1.57 suggest on Brighton, and those odds are worth a small lay. It’s interesting too what side Brighton name – I see no reason why they wouldn’t try to go on a Cup run, but Premier League sides these days don’t really respect the FA Cup until the later stages. For me the biggest chance of a PL side beaten today is Brighton, and I’m happy with a small lay.
The Striker says:
One point lay (liability) Brighton to beat Newport County at 1.57 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQNptBri
- This will be the fourth FA Cup meeting between Newport County and Brighton, with Newport winning the first 3-1 in November 1948, before losing 1-8 in November 1955 and 1-2 in November 1966.
- This is the first meeting in any competition between Newport and Brighton since August 2013, when the Exiles won a League Cup tie 3-1 at the Amex Stadium.
- Newport County have reached at least the FA Cup fourth round in two of the last three seasons, though they were eliminated at this stage last season (0-3 vs Millwall).
- Brighton were knocked out at this stage last season by a side from a lower division (Sheffield Wednesday) – they’ve not been eliminated from consecutive FA Cup games against lower ranked sides since a run of four between 1994/95 and 1997/98.
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