🆕 THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games between BURNLEY v SHEFFIELD UNITED, NEWCASTLE v WEST HAM, LIVERPOOL v ASTON VILLA and SOUTHAMPTON v MAN CITY – all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
BURNLEY V SHEFFIELD UNITED
12pm An interesting Sunday ahead. Sheffield United had hopes of Europa League football in March but since returning from lockdown they have been badly out of form. They managed to beat Spurs on Thursday evening and will hope that turns around the end of the season for them! Before that win, they had yet to create an xG of over 1 in the Premier League and had a swallow the bitter pill of a late goal from Arsenal knocking them out of the FA Cup Quarter Finals. They needed something to turn around their season; and that Spurs win could just do the trick.
After returning a 5-0 hammering against Manchester City, Burnley have grinded out two 1-0 wins against Watford and Crystal Palace. They were lucky to win against Crystal Palace looking at the xG numbers. Burnley are masters at grinding out tough home wins in very close affairs and while Sheffield United improved against Spurs; Jose Mourinho’s men are hardly reliable either – Burnley look very good value at 3.0 for a small bet in what should be a close game.
The Striker Says:
One point win Burnley to beat Sheffield United at 3.0 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQburshe
- This is the first time Burnley are hosting Sheffield United in a top-flight league match since a 3-1 victory in February 1976.
- Following their 3-0 win at Bramall Lane in the reverse fixture, Sheffield United are looking to do the league double over Burnley for the first time since 2005-06 in the Championship, while they last beat Burnley twice in the same top-flight season back in 1967-68.
- The last Yorkshire club to do the Premier League double over a Lancashire side were Leeds against Blackburn in 2003-04. Indeed, before Sheffield United’s win over Burnley in the reverse fixture, Yorkshire sides were winless in 16 Premier League games against Lancashire clubs (D8 L8).
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games (W3 D2), keeping a clean sheet in three of those. Meanwhile, against promoted sides Burnley have lost just one of their last 10 at Turf Moor (W6 D3), though it was in their last such match versus Aston Villa (1-2).
- Sheffield United have lost their last two away league games, as many as they had in their first 14 on the road in the Premier League this season. They’ve shipped six goals in these two defeats, more than they had in their previous six away from home (5).
- Just 9% of the goals conceded by Burnley in the Premier League this season have been from set-piece situations (4/45 – excluding penalties), the lowest ratio in the division.
- Sheffield United’s 3-1 win over Spurs was only the third time this season they had scored three goals in a Premier League game, although one of the others was a 3-0 win over Burnley. The Blades haven’t scored three times in consecutive top-flight games since May/August 1993 (4-2 vs Chelsea, 3-1 vs Swindon Town).
- Only Liverpool have kept more Premier League clean sheets than Burnley this season (13), with no side having kept more at home than the Clarets (8). This is their highest number of clean sheets in a top-flight campaign since 1954-55 (16).
- Burnley have used just 62 substitutes in their 32 Premier League games this season (fewer than any other side), and just four of the 15 available to them since the league restarted.
- No team has scored more goals via substitutes in the Premier League this season than Sheffield United (7, level with Manchester City), with striker Lys Mousset scoring three of those, the joint-most in the division.
NEWCASTLE V WEST HAM
2.15pm Both these sides will be buzzing after their midweek wins. West Ham scored late in a 3-2 thriller to beat Chelsea and Newcastle ran riot with a 4-1 win against Bournemouth. I’ve found it difficult to get a read on Newcastle this season – the underlining numbers say that they are a very bad side, but they seem to win games they shouldn’t. xG has them in 19th and looking at the 4-1 win midweek with an xG of 1.85 to 1.21 probably sums them up. I would fancy them at a value price to go down next season, unless we see some changes before next season.
For today, this is obviously a big game for West Ham. Another win here would almost see them safe, especially with Villa having to play Liverpool later. I’m not surprised to see such an open market and the match odds market looks very fair to me. I am surprised to see the price of over 2.5 goals however. I thought overs would be odds on here, and it’s currently 2.06. Both sides have seen plenty of goals since returning and give up a lot of chances at the back. Games behind closed doors need an early spark to kick off I have noted, but if we get an early goal here I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 3-2 or 4-1 score line. Overs should be odds on in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQnewwes
- Newcastle have won 20 Premier League games against West Ham, only beating Aston Villa and Tottenham more often in the competition.
- West Ham won this exact fixture 3-0 last season – they’ve not won consecutive away league games against Newcastle since October 1998.
- Newcastle United are unbeaten in five Premier League games (W3 D2), their best run since going undefeated in their last six games of the 2015-16 season under Rafael Benítez.
- West Ham United are looking to record back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since August 2019, when they beat Watford and Norwich.
- Newcastle have had 17 different goalscorers in the Premier League this season – their most in a single campaign in the competition, and more than any other side so far in 2019-20.
- Before the enforced break, no side had scored fewer Premier League goals than Newcastle in 2019-20 (25), with the Magpies averaging 0.9 goals-per-game and scoring 3+ goals in a game just once. Since the restart, only Man City (13) have scored more than Newcastle (8), with the Magpies netting at least three times in two of their three games while averaging 2.7 goals-per-game.
- West Ham have lost their last seven away Premier League matches; the Hammers haven’t lost eight in a row on the road since December 2006.
- Newcastle boss Steve Bruce has won just two of his 18 managerial encounters with West Ham’s David Moyes (D6 L10) and remains winless against him since November 2008 (Wigan 1-0 Everton).
- Having been involved in two goals in his first 17 Premier League appearances for Newcastle, Allan Saint-Maximin has been involved in five in his last four games (2 goals, 3 assists). Against Bournemouth, he became the first Magpies player to assist three goals in a Premier League game since Moussa Sissoko in October 2015 against Norwich City.
- In 34 league starts this season for Hull City and West Ham, Jarrod Bowen has been directly in 26 goals (17 goals, 9 assists), with Bowen assisting twice in the Hammers’ 3-2 victory over Chelsea last time out.
LIVERPOOL V ASTON VILLA
4.30pm It’s difficult to know what to make of this fixture. Aston Villa will be hoping Liverpool’s hangover lasts another few days after Manchester City played them off the park in a 4-0 win on Thursday night. Liverpool weren’t dreadful though, they actually started the game brightly and had the better chances but then City upper their level and blew them away. It’s more than ok for Liverpool to take their foot off the gas now they have won the title, and Villa will be hoping to take advantage and gain a massive three points.
The problem here is you don’t want to lump on Liverpool given their current mentality, but Villa have been poor since returning from lockdown and it’s tough to back them to beat a side like Liverpool. Villa have only netted twice in four games, and although they played reasonably well against Chelsea, Newcastle and Sheffield United they still lost to Chelsea and could only draw with Newcastle and Sheffield United. I think Villa can score here given Liverpool’s celebrations and BTTS is worth a small bet at 1.85; it’s hard not to see an open game with the way Liverpool will play and Villa need points.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 1.85 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQlivast
- Liverpool have won their last four Premier League meetings with Aston Villa, by an aggregate score of 13-3.
- Aston Villa have only lost one of their last five Premier League away games against Liverpool (W2 D2), though it was in their last such visit in September 2015 (2-3).
- Five of Aston Villa’s last six Premier League wins against Liverpool have been at Anfield, in a run stretching back to April 1999.
- Liverpool versus Aston Villa has seen more away wins than any other fixture in Premier League history (20 – 14 for Liverpool, 6 for Aston Villa).
- Aston Villa have lost 13 of their last 15 away Premier League games against the side starting the day top of the table (D2), since beating Leeds 2-1 in January 2000.
- This will be Liverpool’s first home league match since being confirmed Premier League champions for the first time – the Reds are unbeaten in 56 home league games, winning the last 23 in a row.
- Aston Villa are winless in eight Premier League games (D2 L6), the longest current winless run in the competition.
- Liverpool have lost just one of their last 24 home Premier League matches against teams in the relegation zone (W17 D6), losing 3-2 at Anfield against Swansea City in January 2017.
- Mohamed Salah has scored 49 Premier League home goals in just 59 appearances for Liverpool and Chelsea combined. Should Salah score in this fixture, only Alan Shearer (47 games) would have taken fewer appearances to reach 50 home goals in the Premier League.
- In 16 games and 1254 minutes played in home games this season, Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino has had 49 shots, 16 on target and an expected goals value of nearly seven. However, the Brazilian is yet to score a league goal at Anfield this term.
SOUTHAMPTON V MANCHESTER CITY
7pm Manchester City blew Liverpool away on Thursday night, and they can do the same to Southampton this evening. Southampton are having a rock solid season, but most of their success has come away from home. They sit bottom of the Premier League on home form, with only 14 points from 16 games. Even Arsenal were able to beat them 2-0 here recently! Southampton have scored six goals in their last two away games, winning 3-1 and 3-0 but we should see a similar score line in favour of City here.
I’m surprised to see City as big as 1.9 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap. They have been playing some excellent football since returning apart from their evening of madness against Chelsea. Southampton haven’t got anything going at home this season and with City in excellent goal scoring form, the 1.9 to cover the handicap looks the best bet of the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Southampton at 1.9 with BETDAQ Exchange.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQsoumci
- Southampton have lost each of their last six Premier League meetings with Manchester City – they’ve never lost seven in a row against an opponent in the competition.
- Manchester City have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League meetings with Southampton (D1 L1), including each of the last six in a row by an aggregate score of 17-4.
- Southampton have lost 10 Premier League home games this season – they’ve never lost more at home in any of their previous 92 campaigns in their league history (also 10 in 1993-94).
- Manchester City haven’t lost three consecutive away league games since a run of four in April 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini. Manager Pep Guardiola has never lost three consecutive away league games before in his managerial career.
- None of Southampton’s last 12 Premier League games have ended level, with Saints winning six and losing six. Just four of Southampton’s Premier League games have ended level this season, the fewest of any side outside the top two.
- Manchester City’s 4-0 win over Liverpool was their 25th Premier League win by four or more goals since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016-17 – seven more than any other club in that time.
- Since his Premier League debut for Manchester City in September 2015, Kevin De Bruyne has created more chances (432) and assisted more goals (62) than any other player. He has registered 17 Premier League assists this season, just one shy of his season’s best of 18 in 2016-17.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has scored the opening goal in eight different Premier League games this season, more than any other player.
- Manchester City’s Phil Foden has been directly involved in 14 goals in his last 17 appearances in all competitions (6 goals, 8 assists), despite only starting 10 of those games. Among Englishmen in the Premier League, only Trent Alexander-Arnold (14) and Bukayo Saka (11) have more assists in all competitions this season than Foden (9).
- Against Watford, Southampton midfielder James Ward-Prowse scored his sixth direct free- kick in the Premier League for the Saints – only Matt Le Tissier has scored more in the Premier League for Southampton (7).
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.