SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s final Premier League games all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. Man City and Liverpool are both long odds on to win but could there be final day drama?
ARSENAL V EVERTON
4pm After a fantastic season full of drama, we reach the final day on Saturday and there’s lots to discuss! We should have an excellent day on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with ten fixtures to enjoy – the title race is still on but unlikely to change, the same can be said for the Top Four and we have two huge games in the relegation battle. What a day ahead! We start the ten fixtures with Arsenal hosting Everton. It’s been a very different story for these two clubs this week. Arsenal threw away pole position in the Top Four race with a 2-0 loss away to Newcastle on Monday, and Everton fans had a massive party on Thursday night after their side came back from 2-0 down at half-time against Crystal Palace. There was a lot of negativity on Twitter afterwards about the pitch invasion and all the celebration. My opinion is this; isn’t staying up in a relegation battle much more exciting than finishing in 10th every season? You achieve nothing, no chance of European football and no chance of going down – where’s the fun in that, where’s the drama? I think the fans loved the moment, especially going back from 2-0 down and that’s what football is about – it’s supposed to get the blood pumping otherwise what’s the point. Take a club like Aston Villa for example – when is the last time their fans had a real do-or-die moment? They are stuck in mid-table forever.
Everton can enjoy the final day now without the worry of going down, and that is good news for Arsenal – although Everton have been terrible at the back this season, I’m sure they would have went into this game looking for a draw if they were still in the relegation battle. I feel they will go for it now. I said in my preview of the Newcastle v Arsenal game on Monday that the result will impact everyone’s opinion of this Arsenal side for a while. What we got was the same old Arsenal that we have seen over the last number of seasons – since Wenger left really. No backbone, no leaders and no fight. They just rolled over and crippled under the pressure – we saw a few angry interviews from the players afterwards and after all the progress Arteta has seemingly made this season, will they get another chance to finish in the Top Four? Spurs and Manchester United were quite poor this season; will they be as bad next season? The wait for Champions League football goes on for Arsenal. With Everton not needing a result now, Arsenal have shortened in the market. The 1.41 definitely feels too short, but Everton have been so poor at the back this season I can definitely see Arsenal doing well here. I feel we’ll have an open game here with plenty of goals, and over 2.5 goals is a nice place to start the day at 1.63.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsEve
● Arsenal have lost their last three Premier League games against Everton, as many as they had in their previous 26 (W16 D7). Only once have they lost four in a row against the Toffees in league competition, doing so between November 1922 and April 1924.
● Everton won this exact fixture last season, ending a 24-game winless run away against Arsenal in the league. They last won consecutive league visits against the Gunners in March 1987.
● This is the third time Arsenal and Everton have met on the final day of a Premier League season, with the Gunners winning the previous two – 4-3 in 2001-02 and 3-1 in 2016-17.
● Arsenal are unbeaten in their final league game in each of the last 16 seasons (W14 D2), winning the last 10 in a row. When finishing a league season at home, the Gunners have won each of their last 12 games since a 3-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in 1992-93.
● Everton have lost their final league game in four of the last five seasons (D1), conceding at least three goals in each defeat.
● No team has won their final Premier League game more (20), or has a higher win rate in their final games of the season (69%) than Arsenal. The Gunners are also responsible for 31% of the closing day hat-tricks scored in Premier League history (4/13) – Ljungberg in 2002-03, Henry in 2005-06, Walcott in 2014-15 and Giroud in 2015-16.
● Arsenal have lost 91% of their Premier League games when conceding the first goal this season (W1 D0 L10), with only bottom club Norwich City (92%) having a higher such loss rate.
● Everton have earned four points from their last two away league games, double the amount they had in their previous 14 on the road (D2 L12). The Toffees have also lost four of their five league games in London this season, with the exception being a 1-1 draw at Chelsea.
● Bukayo Saka has played every single Premier League game for Arsenal this season, and (at 20y 259d on the day of this game) would be the second youngest player to play every match in a full Premier League campaign for the Gunners, after Cesc Fàbregas in 2006-07.
● Martin Ødegaard has created more chances in the Premier League than any other Arsenal player this season (72). It’s the most by an Arsenal player in a single campaign since Mesut Özil in 2017-18 (84).
BRENTFORD V LEEDS
4pm We move to the relegation battle next as Leeds travel to take on Brentford. With Burnley picking up a draw away to Aston Villa on Thursday night, Leeds will have to better the result of Burnley to get out of the relegation zone. Burnley have an average of 20 in the goal difference, which only really highlights just how bad Leeds have been at the back. Although Brentford essentially have nothing to play for, they have been finishing the season very strongly and they do have a chance of getting into the top half of the table which would be an incredible result for their first season in the Premier League. This will be a very difficult fixture for Leeds – Brentford have been fantastic since March. When you think back, the games in hand situation at the start of March meant that Brentford could easily have gone down, but they recorded back-to-back wins against Norwich and Burnley to move away from the relegation fight, and ever since they beat Chelsea 4-1 they haven’t really looked back. The only blip on their run in was a 3-0 loss away to Manchester United, that was Manchester United’s final home game so their players “turned up” that day and didn’t throw in the towel like they have done a lot this season. Brentford have been impressive since, scoring six goals in two games against Southampton and Everton.
With Burnley at home at Newcastle today, it’s easy to see why Leeds are favourites to go down. To be honest though, with Brentford and Newcastle playing good football recently it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both clubs in the relegation fight lose. It’s no surprise that we have a reasonably open market here, but I would have Brentford much shorter than 2.46. I know Leeds will have a lot of backers because of the situation, but when you look at the data here there’s only one winner for me. Leeds have had a very difficult fixture list to finish the season, but they have been conceding chances and goals for fun all season. When you couple that with Brentford being in such good form, creating chances and scoring goals, then Brentford at a Max Bet for me here at 2.46. Even in the 1-1 draw with Brighton last weekend, Leeds conceding an xG of 2.05. Leeds best form of defence is attacking, so I can’t see them sitting back, but that will just give space to Brentford and we all know when you give space to Brentford they pick you apart. Brentford play very good football, and they should be shorter than 2.46 to beat a side like Leeds, especially with home advantage.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Brentford to beat Leeds at 2.46 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreLee
● Brentford are unbeaten in their last 10 home league games against Leeds (W6 D4) since a 2-1 loss in August 1950.
● Leeds have lost just one of their last six league games against Brentford (W2 D3), with the reverse fixture in December this season ending in a 2-2 draw.
● Each of the last four teams in their debut Premier League campaign have lost their final game of the season (Cardiff, Bournemouth, Brighton and Huddersfield), with Swansea in 2011-12 the last such team to win.
● Leeds have lost their final league game in just one of their 13 Premier League campaigns (W5 D7), going down 1-0 at Chelsea in their relegation season of 2003-04.
● Brentford have won 13 league games this season – in a 20-team league, only Wigan in 2005-06 (15) and Reading in 2006-07 (16) have ever won more in their debut Premier League campaign than the Bees.
● Leeds have scored in the first half in just three of their last 15 Premier League games, with 11 of their last 14 league goals coming after half-time.
● Leeds have conceded 78 Premier League goals this season, just one fewer than their relegation campaign of 2003-04. The last time the Whites conceded 80+ goals in a league campaign was the 1960-61 second tier (83), and the last time in the top-flight was 1959-60 (92).
● Six of Leeds’ seven Premier League goals scored in the 90th minute this season have earned them either a draw (3) or a win (3). However, they’ve also lost two games thanks to goals scored in the 90th minute, doing so at home to West Ham and away to Chelsea.
● Since his first start for Brentford in March, Christian Eriksen has created more chances (25), and has provided the joint-most assists (4) of any player for the Bees. Brentford have also won 48% of their Premier League points in the 10 games since Eriksen’s first start (22/46).
● No player has scored more non-penalty goals in the Premier League for Brentford this season than Yoane Wissa (7). He’s the fifth Congolese player to net as many as seven goals in a single Premier League campaign, with none of the previous four scoring more.
BRIGHTON V WEST HAM
4pm Next we have Brighton hosting West Ham. Both of these sides had an impact on the title and relegation races last weekend, with West Ham holding Manchester City to a draw and Brighton only drawing at Leeds. This should be a good game, but it’s quite understandable that it will ‘get lost’ in amongst all the important games on the final day. That being said, this could be a massive game for West Ham who currently sit in seventh two points behind Manchester United in sixth. You never know what type of performance you’re going to get from Manchester United these days, so a win for West Ham could easily see them jump into sixth. There’s going to be extra European spots this season with Liverpool winning both domestic Cups this season, and West Ham had a brilliant run in the Europa League this season. I was surprised to see Brighton only draw with Leeds last weekend – the game finished 1-1 but the score line doesn’t tell the whole story. It was an exceptionally open game with xG finishing 2.37 to 2.05. It could have easily been 3-3. I would expect another pretty open game here, Brighton enjoy playing an open game anyway and they will want to finish the season nicely in front of their own fans.
Brighton have finished the season in excellent form. They’ve beaten Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester United, along with an impressive against Wolves and two xG figures of over 2.0 against Southampton and Leeds. Brighton fans can’t complain, after a few years playing nice football but having to worry about relegation battles, they have moved up to challenging for the top half of the table and you never know – they could challenge for a European spot next season. I know that’s unlikely, but they actually play some very good football; I believe they are better than the likes of Wolves and Leicester who sit above them. It’s no surprise that we have an open market here and we should have a very good game too. I’m going to stay away from the match odds market here and focus on the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.86 which looks cracking value in what should be a very open game. I can’t see either side sitting back, and we should have a very end-to-end game here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriWhu
● Brighton are unbeaten in all nine of their Premier League meetings with West Ham (W3 D6) – it’s both the most they’ve faced an opponent without ever losing, and the most the Hammers have faced a side without ever winning in the competition.
● West Ham have won just one of their last 10 away league games against Brighton (D3 L6), winning 1-0 in the Championship in October 2011 thanks to a Kevin Nolan goal.
● Each of the last six Premier League meetings between Brighton and West Ham have been drawn; in English top-flight history only three fixtures have ever been drawn seven times in a row – Chelsea v West Bromwich Albion (1921-1924), Aston Villa v West Ham (1998-2001) and Birmingham v Liverpool (2005-2010).
● Brighton have lost their final league game in three of their four Premier League campaigns, with the exception being a 2-1 win at Burnley in 2019-20.
● West Ham have won their final Premier League game in four of the last five campaigns (D1), last losing against Stoke City in 2015-16.
● After losing six consecutive league games in February and March, Brighton have lost just one of their last eight since (W4 D3). Each of the Seagulls’ four victories in that run have come against teams in the top eight of the table.
● Just 19 of Brighton’s 48 Premier League points this season have come in home games (40%), with only Watford (35%) earning a lower share of their points at their own ground this term.
● Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored 11 goals in his two Premier League campaigns with Brighton (48 games), one more than he had in his previous four seasons with Arsenal/Watford (70 games). He’s netted four Premier League goals against West Ham, only netting more in the competition against Aston Villa (5).
● Jarrod Bowen is West Ham’s highest Premier League goalscorer this season with 12 goals, the most by a Hammers player in a single campaign since Marlon Harewood in 2005-06 (14). However, just two of Bowen’s 12 strikes this season have come away from home.
● If he plays, this would be Mark Noble’s 414th and final Premier League appearance for West Ham, the seventh most appearances for a single side in the competition’s history. He has more assists in the Premier League than any other Hammer (35), while only Michail Antonio (55) has scored more goals for the club than Noble (47).
BURNLEY V NEWCASTLE
4pm We’re back to the relegation battle again as Burnley host Newcastle. Although Burnley gave themselves a good chance of staying up with a draw against Aston Villa on Thursday, they would have been disappointed not to win because they created more chances than Aston Villa. As I said in my preview of that game, Aston Villa have been playing average football this season and Burnley have been playing some very nice football recently – it was nice to land the confident lay on Villa. Despite the fact that Burnley have been playing good football, when I first clicked into this market I was surprised to see them trading as short as 2.34. That’s very much a last day of the season, need a result, type price and I’m going to stay away from it. Let’s not forget that Newcastle were actually below Burnley before the January transfer window, and they have been superb in 2022 so far. They took full advantage of a very weak Arsenal performance on Monday night and got back to winning ways after bumping into Liverpool and Manchester City prior to that. In general, Newcastle have been playing very well though, and this will be a tough test for Burnley.
The 2.34 is simply too short on Burnley in my opinion. That’s giving a lot of value in the market on the draw and Newcastle. Burnley have been creating some good chances though, and as I said they are playing their best football of the season at the moment. After all the drama when they sacked Sean Dyche, with hindsight now it definitely looks like the right decision. Since losing 2-0 to Norwich, they have created xG figures of 1.97, 2.77, 1.27, 1.65, 1.62, 0.64 (away to Spurs) and 1.88. They weren’t creating figures like that under Dyche, not even close. If you take out the Liverpool and Man City games, which in fairness we can forgive any side losing to them, Newcastle haven’t put a foot wrong lately. I think Burnley will make this game a little cagey, and Newcastle have been conceding many goals lately outside of the Man City game – even Liverpool could only score once. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 here, or perhaps another 1-1 involving Burnley. With Burnley trading short, there’s value in the draw here at 3.5.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurNew
● Burnley have lost each of their last three Premier League meetings with Newcastle, having lost just two of their first eight against the Magpies (W2 D4).
● Newcastle are looking to win four consecutive Premier League games against an opponent for the first time since doing so against QPR between 2012 and 2014.
● Burnley have lost their final league game in each of the last five Premier League campaigns since their return to the division in 2016, having won on MD38 in the two seasons they were relegated (4-2 v Tottenham in 2009-10, 1-0 v Aston Villa in 2014-15).
● Newcastle have won their final league game in six of the last seven seasons, with the exception being a 3-1 home loss to Liverpool 2019-20.
● Burnley have won three of their last four home league games, as many as they had in their previous 26 at Turf Moor (D11 L12). However, they did lose their last home game 3-1 against Aston Villa.
● After winning three and drawing one of their first four Premier League away games in 2022, Newcastle have now lost four of their last five on the road (W1). Their last two defeats have seen them concede exactly five goals each time, with these coming either side of a 3-0 victory at Norwich.
● In Premier League history, there have been 44 red cards issued in teams’ final games of the season – Newcastle have received more of these than any other side (7). Their most recent such red came in 2015-16, when Aleksandar Mitrovic was sent off in a 5-1 victory over Tottenham.
● Only Liverpool, Manchester City and Tottenham have won more Premier League points so far in 2022 than Newcastle (35). The Magpies have won 11 league games this calendar year, already more than they managed in both 2021 (8) and 2020 (9).
● Maxwel Cornet has scored more home goals than any other Burnley player in the Premier League this season (4). However, only Brighton have a lower-scoring top scorer in home games this season than the Clarets (Maupay and Trossard, 3).
● Despite only making his debut for the club in February, only Allan Saint-Maximin (9) has been involved in more Premier League goals for Newcastle this season than Bruno Guimarães (6 – 5 goals, 1 assist).
CHELSEA V WATFORD
4pm Chelsea bring down the curtain on their season next as they host Watford. As you would expect today, Liverpool and Manchester City are trading exceptionally short prices. But you can add Chelsea to that list as they are trading the same price – currently at 1.19 at the time of writing. Who can blame the market because Watford have been so poor this season, and they look like they have waved the white flag on the season too since confirmation that they were going down. They have finished the season with a run of eight games without a win, and it’s very difficult to see how that doesn’t turn into nine here. It’s hard to know what to make of Chelsea’s season this year after winning the Champions League this season. They have been a mile off Liverpool and Manchester City in the title race and it doesn’t look like they will be getting close any time soon. The best that they can hope for is probably keep their distance between Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester United while enjoying a Cup run – they did only lose the FA Cup to penalties against Liverpool after all. Chelsea should win here, and I feel this is a case of how many goals can they score rather than will they win.
Watford have been conceding chances and goals for fun to end the season, so we could see a pretty big win for Chelsea. I was disappointed that they couldn’t beat Leicester on Thursday night though, and the players have had a tough run of things with the extra time in the FA Cup Final. I was worried about that heading into the game on Thursday, so I kept stakes low. I will be keeping stakes low again in this game, and although Chelsea didn’t get the win they actually played pretty well. They bossed the fixture and only conceded an xG of 0.06. It’s just one of those things that Leicester scored from it! Watford have been terrible to finish the season, they conceded five goals against Leicester, and another five against Man City not long ago. I think we’ll see a similar result here, and Any Other Home Win is worth a small investment at 3.2 in the Correct Score market.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 3.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheWat
● Chelsea have never lost in seven Premier League home games against Watford (W6 D1), scoring at least twice in all seven meetings.
● Watford have lost eight of their last nine Premier League games against Chelsea, including each of the last five in a row since a 4-1 home win in February 2018.
● Chelsea lost 2-1 against Aston Villa on the last day of the Premier League last season – they’ve not lost their final league game in consecutive campaigns since 1991-92 and 1992-93. The Blues are unbeaten in 11 when finishing their league season at home (W8 D3), since a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa in 2001-02.
● Watford’s only victory on the final day of a Premier League season came in their first campaign in the competition in 1999-00 (D2 L4). Of all current Premier League sides, none have a lower win rate on the final day than the Hornets (14%).
● Chelsea hold the record for the biggest victory on the final day in Premier League history, beating Wigan Athletic 8-0 to seal the title in 2009-10. Meanwhile, only Arsenal (64) have scored more goals in their final Premier League games than the Blues (57).
● Watford have lost 26 Premier League games this season – in their league history they’ve only ever lost more in 1971-72 (28 in the second tier).
● Watford have won 65% of their Premier League points away from home this season (15/23), with only Crystal Palace in 1997-98 ever having a higher share (67%). If the Hornets win this, they will set a new such record, while a draw would see them equal the Eagles from that campaign.
● Watford are yet to score a Premier League goal from outside the box this season. There have been just three occasions of a team going through an entire campaign without scoring from distance, with Watford already responsible for one of those (2019-20 – also Manchester City and Middlesbrough in 1995-96).
● As well as having the fewest different goalscorers in the Premier League this season (8), Watford have had the lowest percentage of their players to play for them this term find the net (27%), with only eight of their 30 players used scoring for the Hornets.
● After winning his first ever Premier League away game against Chelsea (1-0 with Blackburn in April 1998), Watford boss Roy Hodgson has lost each of his last seven visits to Stamford Bridge.
CRYSTAL PALACE V MANCHESTER UNITED
4pm We have a couple of “meaningless” fixtures here before we get to the title race, but Crystal Palace hosting Manchester United is an interesting game from a betting point of view. We all know how poor United have been this season, but they have some major work to do with their squad. There is obviously a big debate ongoing as to who is good enough for United, but I would be more worried about the attitude we’ve seen from some players this season. When they have come under pressure they have completely given up on numerous times this season. If they’re going to get back into the Top Four, that has to stop. They obviously turned on a good performance for their final home game at Old Trafford, but then they were completely embarrassed by Brighton losing 4-0 away from home. I would be worried about the performance level again today, and I feel the 2.34 is too short. United just haven’t been playing good enough this season to back them at prices like that away from home. It was disappointing to see Crystal Palace lose from 2-0 up on Thursday night against Everton because they were playing very well going into that game. I was very happy to lay Everton at the odds, and thought we were quid’s in at half-time!
Despite that setback for Crystal Palace, they didn’t play too badly. Everton just got a run in the second half, the crowd was immense and they found a winner. These things happen, and Everton fans certainly enjoyed themselves at full-time, however we shouldn’t be seeing the scenes of fans going up to Patrick Vieira. I don’t blame him for the kick, we need to look at the actions of the fans more so than the players and managers. Palace have created some decent xG figures lately, and given the lack of quality football from United this season, especially towards the end of the season, I fully expect Palace to create more here. I think the United lay is a no brainer here to be honest – they haven’t played well enough to justify odds like this away from home, and I’m very happy to lay the 2.34. I expect Palace to make the game a lot closer than those odds suggest, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Palace win either.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Crystal Palace at 2.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryMun
● Crystal Palace have never won in 12 Premier League home games against Man Utd (D4 L8), the most one team has faced another at home without ever winning in the competition.
● Man Utd are looking to complete their first league double over Crystal Palace since 2017-18, following their 1-0 win at Old Trafford in December.
● Crystal Palace have never lost when playing their final game of a top-flight season at home, winning six and drawing three of their nine games dating back to 1969-70.
● No side has won their final game of a Premier League season more often than Manchester United (20, level with Arsenal), while the Red Devils are unbeaten in their last 11 when ending the season away from home (W8 D3 since a 3-1 loss at Spurs in 2000-01).
● Whatever the result, Manchester United will finish the season with their lowest points tally in Premier League history. They’ve lost their last five away league games, and defeat by two or more goals here would see them finish the season with a negative goal difference for the first time since 1989-90 (-1).
● Despite being unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games, Crystal Palace are looking to win consecutive matches at Selhurst Park for the first time since March 2020.
● Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four Premier League home games – only once have they recorded five consecutively in the top-flight, doing so in April 1992 under Steve Coppell.
● Following a run of just two defeats in 18 Premier League games following Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s departure (W9 D7), Manchester United have lost four of their last seven (W2 D1). Their 11 Premier League defeats in total this season is their second highest ever tally, topped only by their 12 defeats in 2013-14.
● This will be Ralf Rangnick’s final game in charge of Manchester United. Whatever the result, he will leave with the lowest win rate of any Red Devils manager in Premier League history (currently 43.5% – 10 wins from 23 games).
● Man Utd’s Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 18 Premier League goals this season, only netting more in a single campaign in 2007-08 (31). However, just four of his 18 goals this term have come away from home, while of all players to have scored 100+ goals in Premier League history, Ronaldo has netted the highest percentage of them in home games (70% – 71/102).
LEICESTER V SOUTHAMPTON
4pm Leicester host Southampton next, and this is definitely a game that can “get lost” in the coverage today. It’s a meaningless game between two average sides with nothing to play for – maybe we’ll see it finish 4-4! Fair to say this game won’t get much coverage with the title race, top four race and relegation battles ongoing. Leicester have been very poor this season, and they really need to improve if they want to get back to challenging for a Top Four spot. Ironically, if they produced their level from the last two seasons they probably would have been good enough to finish fourth. I know Leicester have had issues with injury, but I’m surprised Brendan Rodgers hasn’t come under more pressure from the UK media. I suppose they tend to focus on the bigger clubs, and if you remember when Leicester were at their worst this season the media were hounding Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at the time. Southampton are another club who have had a poor season. Maybe it’s time for a change there too, although I suppose they are just happy to stay in the Premier League without a relegation battle. As I said above in the Arsenal v Everton game, where’s the enjoyment in that? There’s never any drama to enjoy! Staying up on the last day is a better buzz than sitting in 15th all season.
Leicester are trading marginally odds on here at 1.95, and although Southampton have finished the season in poor form, I still can’t bring myself to support Leicester at odds on. They just haven’t created enough for me this season. Things could actually be worse too – they are scoring more goals than their xG figures and they are also conceding less. They have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game this season, but their xG figure is as high as 1.9. You aren’t winning many games conceding two goals per game! Since beating Arsenal, when they were lucky to do so, Southampton have been poor. They have shipped goals and chances – I feel we’ll see a lot of errors in this game, and we should see a lot of goals too. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.59 and that looks by far the best option here. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to see a 4-4 score line here given how poor both sides have been at the back!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.59 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiSou
● Leicester are looking to win consecutive home league games against Southampton for the first time since April 2016, with their 2-0 win in this fixture last season ending a four-game winless home run in the league against Saints (D2 L2).
● Southampton have won two of their last three away league games against Leicester (L1), as many as they had in their previous 16 visits to the King Power Stadium/Filbert Street combined (D5 L9).
● Southampton have had more Premier League red cards against Leicester than they have against any other opponent (7), with four of these coming in the last seven such meetings between the sides.
● Since beating QPR 5-1 in 2014-15, Leicester haven’t won their final league game in any of the last six seasons (D3 L3).
● Leicester have scored 26 and conceded 33 goals in their 15 closing day games in the Premier League – their overall average of 3.93 goals-per-game is the highest on the final day of any side to have competed in more than five seasons of the competition.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2012, Southampton have won their final league game in just two of their nine seasons (D3 L4), beating Crystal Palace 4-1 in 2015-16 and Sheffield United 3-1 in 2019-20.
● Leicester have lost just two of their last 12 Premier League home games (W7 D3), having lost three of their first six at the King Power Stadium this season beforehand (W2 D1).
● Southampton have dropped 29 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season – the last side to drop more than 29 in a single campaign were Tottenham in 2007-08 (33).
● Southampton have won just three of their last 23 Premier League away games (D6 L14). Saints have alternated between a draw and a defeat in their last six on the road, losing 3-0 at Brentford last time out.
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored six goals on the final day of the Premier League – only Harry Kane (8) has netted more among players currently playing in the competition.
LIVERPOOL V WOLVES
4pm Now onto the title race! We start with Liverpool hosting Wolves, but it’s fair to say the market is expecting two easy wins for Liverpool and Manchester City – both are trading as short as 1.19 at the time of writing. Jurgen Klopp opted to make a host of changes midweek as his side faced Southampton but they managed to keep the title race alive when grinding out a 2-1 win. Although Liverpool have a massive Champions League Final to look forward to next Saturday, I can’t see Klopp naming anything other than his strongest XI here. He has made some very odd team selections over the years, but six days is more than enough time for the players to recover. Possibly if anyone has a niggle or anything like that they won’t be risked, but I would expect a strong team. Although Liverpool are still in the title race, they will know that Manchester City are heavy favourites to beat Aston Villa and they will be expecting a home win there too. You never know though, Liverpool just have to focus on winning here and see what happens in the other game. Wolves have been finishing the season very poorly, and I feel this is a case of how many goals can Liverpool score rather than will they win.
After three straight losses for Wolves against Newcastle, Burnley and Brighton I questioned whether or not they were “on the beach early” so to speak. After coming from 2-0 down to pick up a 2-2 draw away to Chelsea I thought maybe they weren’t, but after losing to Manchester City (to be expected) they put in another dismal performance against Norwich last weekend. It was their final game of the season and they created a smaller xG than they conceded against the side nailed to the bottom of the table. The Wolves xG figures have been poor for a while now – they just aren’t creating chances to finish the season and they are conceding sloppy goals too. I feel Liverpool can run riot here just like Manchester City did putting five past Wolves recently. Any Other Home Win is trading 3.4 in the Correct Score market and that looks a nice value price. An early goal will see the floodgates open for Liverpool.
The Striker Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivWol
● Liverpool have won each of their last 10 Premier League games against Wolves, including eight clean sheets, since a 1-0 home loss in December 2010 under Roy Hodgson.
● Wolves have lost 17 of their last 19 away league games against Liverpool, winning the other two both by a 1-0 scoreline in January 1984 and December 2010.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in all six of their closing day Premier League games under Jürgen Klopp (W5 D1), winning the last five in a row. Their last defeat on MD38 came in 2014-15 under Brendan Rodgers, a 6-1 loss at Stoke City.
● When playing their final game of a league season at home, Liverpool are unbeaten in 15 matches (W13 D2) since losing 2-0 against Arsenal in 1988-89 in one of the most famous finales to a top-flight campaign.
● Wolves have lost their final game in six of their seven Premier League campaigns, winning the other 2-1 against Sunderland in 2009-10. No current Premier League side has a lower win rate in the final game of the season than Wolves (14%).
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 22 Premier League home games (W17 D5), scoring 53 goals and conceding just 10. If they avoid defeat here, it will be the fifth time they’ve gone through an entire Premier League campaign without losing at home, the joint-most of any team (Chelsea also 5).
● Wolves are winless in six Premier League games (D2 L4), their longest run under Bruno Lage. They last had a longer run without a league victory between December 2020 and January 2021 (8 games).
● Wolves have only scored 37 Premier League goals this season but could finish in the top-eight of the division. Only two sides have scored fewer than 40 Premier League goals in a season but finished in the top-eight: Fulham in 2008-09 (scored 39, finished 7th) and Burnley in 2017-18 (36, 7th).
● Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has scored six goals on the final day of the Premier League – only Harry Kane (8) has netted more among players currently playing in the division.
● Liverpool’s Joel Matip has scored in each of his last two Premier League matches, as many as in his previous 45 appearances combined. He’s only ended on the losing side in three of his last 78 Premier League appearances and has lost just 8% of his games overall (10/125), the lowest ratio of any player with 100+ games.
MANCHESTER CITY V ASTON VILLA
4pm All eyes turn to Manchester in the title race. The pressure is all on Manchester City as they need to beat Aston Villa to secure another Premier League title. Pep Guardiola’s men have been here before, and I’m sure they won’t be too fussed by Aston Villa. However, pressure does funny things and as we saw with the West Ham game at the weekend, you never know what can happen. There’s no getting away from the fact that Steven Gerrard handing Liverpool a Premier League title as Aston Villa manager is the script all Liverpool fans would love, and you have to admit it does add a little spice to the fixture. From a reality point of view, this should be an easy home win. There are multiple levels between the sides and City should hammer this average Aston Villa side. As I said above, they are trading the same price as Liverpool – as short as 1.19 at the time of writing. Much like the Liverpool v Wolves game above, I feel this is a case of how many goals can Manchester City score rather than will they win. Aston Villa just haven’t been good enough this season to compete with this City side – they would have to majorly underperform for Villa to even get close. With City trading so short in the match odds market, we’ll have to look around the side markets for some value.
City are probably a little annoyed to even be in this situation. Even at half-time 2-0 down against West Ham, they performed superbly in the second half and missed a late penalty to win the game. They could have put the title race to bed there and then. What can you say about City this season other than the fact they have been fantastic. Their xG figures are incredible, and they are going to create a lot of chances here. It’s hard to see how Aston Villa live with them to be honest – they aren’t creating a lot recently and were outplayed by Crystal Palace last weekend. They gave Liverpool a decent game when only losing by a goal, but they had home advantage in that game. Villa will have to defend for their lives here to get a result, and that is a hard thing to do when essentially you have nothing to play for. The manager will want a result for Liverpool’s sake, but will the players buy into that? If we have an open game, it’s a City win. I can’t see City scoring as many goals as Liverpool today, but I do feel that they will cover the 1.5 goal handicap. That’s trading 1.53 and looks a nice option – this Aston Villa side are there for the taking, and the title should be going back to Manchester this season.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester City -1.5 goals to beat Aston Villa at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciAst
● Man City have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games against Aston Villa (D1), including the last six in a row. Their last defeat to the Villans came at Villa Park in September 2013 (2-3).
● Aston Villa have lost 15 of their last 16 away league games against Man City, losing each of the last 11 in a row since a 2-0 win in April 2007. This run of 11 is the Villans’ longest away losing streak against an opponent in their league history.
● Aston Villa have won just one of their 21 Premier League away games against the league leaders (D3 L17), beating Leeds United 2-1 in January 2000. The Villans are winless in their last 16 such games (D2 L14), losing the last seven by an aggregate score of 21-1.
● Manchester City have only lost their final league game in one of the last 13 campaigns (W10 D2), going down 3-2 at home to Norwich in 2012-13.
● Aston Villa beat Chelsea 2-1 on MD38 last season – they’ve not won their final league game in consecutive campaigns since 1996-97 and 1997-98, with the second victory back then coming against that season’s champions (1-0 vs Arsenal).
● Victory for Manchester City will secure them their eighth top-flight title, the outright fifth-most in history since its inception in 1888. It would be their sixth Premier League title (outright second-most after Manchester United’s 13), and their fourth in the last five seasons.
● Manchester City have lost just one of their last 27 Premier League games (W22 D4), and are unbeaten in 11 since losing 3-2 at home to Spurs in February.
● Victory for Manchester City would be their fourth Premier League title under Pep Guardiola, with only Sir Alex Ferguson winning more (13). It would make Guardiola the outright leader for English top-flight titles among non-British managers, going one clear of both Arsène Wenger and José Mourinho.
● Man City have won all five of their final league games of the season under Pep Guardiola – it’s the best such 100% record for a manager in the competition’s history.
● Man City’s Phil Foden has scored nine Premier League goals this season, and could join teammates Kevin De Bruyne (15), Raheem Sterling (13) and Riyad Mahrez (11) on double figures in 2021-22. It would be the first time the Citizens have had two English players score at least 10 goals in a league campaign since 2004-05 (Robbie Fowler and Shaun Wright-Phillips).
NORWICH V TOTTENHAM
4pm We finish a blockbuster final day in the Premier League with Norwich hosting Spurs. After Arsenal fluffed their lines again when losing to Newcastle on Monday night and Spurs beat Burnley on Sunday, that has left Spurs sitting in fourth position with Champions League football in their own hands. Given the difference in goal difference towards Spurs too, they only need a draw here. It’s very hard to see Spurs falling out of fourth now, especially with Conte in charge. Perhaps with another manager Spurs could “do a Spurs” here and lose, but he should set them up well and they should get a result. No doubt all Spurs fans will be nervous about this fixture – they have been disappointed too many times in the past not to be nervous! However, although on paper it looked like Spurs grinded out a 1-0 win last weekend to Burnley, they played better than the score line suggests and could have had more goals. Norwich have been playing very open tactics since getting relegated and I can’t see them putting XI men behind the ball here to get a result. Burnley were still fighting for their lives against Spurs last weekend, and a draw would have been a great result. It’s a totally different dynamic here.
I can’t really see past a Spurs win here, but the 1.27 on them to win isn’t a very appealing price. Unlike Liverpool and Manchester City above, it isn’t a price I’d like to put in a BETDAQ Multiple today either. Spurs, Arsenal and Manchester United have all be unreliable in the Top Four race this season and Spurs have been “the least bad” really. The thing is though, they are up against a woeful Norwich side here. They just haven’t been good enough for the Premier League this season, and they have been conceding goals for fun this season too. As I said above, I would question the commitment of Wolves at the end of the season, but other than that Norwich have been shipping goals. Before playing Wolves they conceded 15 goals in five games, and although Spurs fans will be nervous I can see the players taking full advantage of this Norwich side. Spurs are trading 1.7 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap and that looks a nice bet to finish a wonderful final day in the Premier League! Best of luck with your bets and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this season!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham -1.5 goals to beat Norwich at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NorTot
● Norwich have won just one of their last nine league games against Tottenham (D3 L5), a 1-0 home victory in February 2014. The Canaries have conceded at least twice in each of their last five against Spurs (D1 L4).
● Spurs have lost just one of their last 10 away league games against Norwich (W6 D3), going down 1-0 in February 2014.
● This is the sixth time Spurs have faced a side already relegated from the Premier League on the final day of the season, though they’ve lost more of those games (3) than they’ve won (2) – they beat Wolves in 2003-04 and Hull in 2016-17, but lost against Leicester in 2001-02, Burnley in 2009-10 and Newcastle in 2015-16.
● Norwich have won their final league game in just two of their nine Premier League campaigns (D3 L4), beating Aston Villa in 2011-12 and Manchester City in 2012-13. The Canaries have lost their last three such games by an aggregate score of 10-0.
● Tottenham have lost their final league game in just one of the last 11 campaigns (W8 D2), going down 5-1 at already relegated Newcastle in 2015-16. Including that result, Spurs’ last six final league games have produced 35 goals (F20 A15), an average of 5.8 per game.
● The bottom side (Norwich in this case) has won their final Premier League match in just two of the last 16 seasons (D3 L11), with Stoke winning 2-1 at Swansea in 2017-18, and Sheffield United beating Burnley 1-0 last term.
● Norwich are looking to become the 23rd different team to reach 100 Premier League wins. The only team to reach the milestone in a season in which they were relegated are Sheffield Wednesday, who beat Chelsea 1-0 for their 100th victory in April 2000.
● A Tottenham win (or simply matching Arsenal’s result) would ensure them their first top four finish since 2018-19. It would also see manager Antonio Conte become the fifth manager to finish in the top four of the Premier League with two different clubs, after Kenny Dalglish, Rafael Benítez, Claudio Ranieri and José Mourinho.
● Norwich have faced more penalties than any other side in the Premier League this season (12). Meanwhile, Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored a penalty in his last two Premier League games – no Spurs player has ever scored a penalty in three consecutive appearances in the competition before.
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored eight goals on the final day of Premier League seasons, with only Andrew Cole and Les Ferdinand (9 each) netting more such goals in the competition.