THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League matches with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. The action starts at midday with WEST HAM v SPURS.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WEST HAM V TOTTENHAM
12pm Some Super Sunday’s a better than others, and this is right from the top drawer! We have some excellent matches and fascinating markets. We start with a London Derby as West Ham host Spurs in the most open market of the day. Both sides are actually trading at very similar prices on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with West Ham 2.78 and Spurs 2.8 at the time of writing. Spurs had a good win midweek in the Europa League but the quality of opposition was very low. This will be an excellent test for Jose Mourinho’s men as West Ham have been excellent this season – it’s actually hard to believe they are pushing for a top four spot when you look at them from this time last season; however it’s not hard to believe looking at how they perform this season.
Even though Spurs had a good win midweek, the xG figures were a little worrying. They conceded an xG of 2.06 and when you consider how poor Wolfsberger are that has to be a worry. West Ham have created a huge amount of chances and they have been excellent going forward in general this season. With the amount of chances Spurs are conceding at the moment and their level of performance; West Ham look nice value here at 2.78. I’ve been a big fan of West Ham this season, and they can land another nice bet for us to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Two points win West Ham to beat Tottenham at 2.78 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhuttm
- West Ham have lost each of their last three home league games against Spurs, their longest losing run at home against them in their league history.
- Tottenham were 3-0 up with 10 minutes remaining in the reverse fixture against West Ham this season, but ended up drawing 3-3. They’ve not failed to win both league games in a season against the Hammers since 2013-14 (L2).
- None of West Ham’s last 11 Premier League home meetings with Tottenham have ended level, with the Hammers winning four to Spurs’ seven.
- West Ham have won 42 points from their 24 Premier League games this season, their best total at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1985-86 (48) when they finished in third place. The Hammers have won three more points in 2020-21 (42) than they did in the entire 2019-20 season (39).
- Tottenham have lost four of their last five Premier League games (W1), as many as in their previous 28 (W14 D10 L4). In fact, Spurs have lost seven Premier League games this season; only in 2015-16 with Chelsea (9) has José Mourinho lost more in a single league campaign in his managerial career.
- This will be José Mourinho’s 50th Premier League match in charge of Tottenham Hotspur (W23 D12 L14) – the Portuguese has averaged 1.65 points-per-game with the Lilywhites, which is the lowest such ratio at the club since Juande Ramos between 2007-2008 (1.17).
- West Ham manager David Moyes has faced José Mourinho on more occasions in all competitions without ever winning than he has against any other manager (P15 W0 D6 L9), whilst this is also the most José Mourinho has ever faced another manager without ever losing.
- Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 11 goals in 15 Premier League games against West Ham – he’s only scored more in the competition against Leicester (14).
- Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has been involved in six goals in his last five Premier League games against West Ham (3 goals, 3 assists), assisting in each of his last three against the Hammers. He has provided more assists against West Ham (4) than versus any other side in his Premier League career.
- West Ham defender Aaron Cresswell has provided six Premier League assists this season, including assisting the Hammers’ second goal against Sheffield United last time out – only in 2017-18 has he registered more assists in a top-flight campaign (7).
ASTON VILLA V LEICESTER
2pm Another excellent fixture. Both these sides are coming off a 0-0 draw with Villa drawing with Brighton and Leicester putting in a disappointing performance midweek in the Europa League against Slavia Prague. As well as West Ham in the earlier game, Aston Villa have been one of my favourite teams to back but their recent xG figures have been very poor. They conceded an xG of 2.44 against Brighton last weekend in their 0-0 draw and only created an xG of 0.14. They only deserved a draw against Arsenal; although to their credit they grinded out a result were tougher than Arsenal, and a couple of weeks ago they were exceptionally lucky to beat Southampton, with the Saints having an xG of 2.51 to 0.77.
So the signs aren’t good for Aston Villa coming into this game. Leicester were disappointing midweek, but I feel this is a good time to get against Aston Villa given their recent form. Leicester look good value at 2.36 especially given the way they have been playing in the Premier League this season. This should be a good game, but if Villa give away the same volume of chances they have been conceding lately then Leicester will gladly take advantage. I wouldn’t put anyone off over 2.5 goals either, but Leicester look the value call.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Leicester to beat Aston Villa at 2.36 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQastlcr
- Aston Villa are looking to complete their first league double over Leicester since the 2003-04 campaign, following their 1-0 win at the King Power Stadium earlier this season.
- Leicester won this exact fixture 4-1 last season – they’ve not won consecutive top-flight visits to Aston Villa since October 1960.
- Aston Villa have recorded 12 clean sheets in their first 22 Premier League games this season – the most shutouts they’ve ever kept in the first 22 games of a league season in their history.
- Leicester City have only lost once in their 12 Premier League away games this season (W8 D3 L1), with only Manchester United (0) registering fewer away defeats this term. Indeed, the Foxes are unbeaten in their last seven on the road in the top-flight (W4 D3).
- Aston Villa have won only one of their last 20 Premier League matches against opponents starting the day of the game in the top three of the table (W1 D4 L15), with that sole victory coming against Liverpool in October 2020 (7-2).
- Aston Villa have won five of their last seven Premier League games on Sundays (D1 L1), as many as they’d won in their previous 43 such matches in the competition (W5 D9 L29).
- Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers has won all five of his away Premier League games against Aston Villa as a manager, his best such 100% record versus an opponent in the competition.
- Leicester City striker Jamie Vardy has scored five goals in his last four Premier League appearances against Aston Villa, netting home and away braces against the Villans last term.
- Leicester City’s Jamie Vardy has been directly involved in 99 Premier League goals since turning 30 years old (81 goals, 18 assists); only five players have registered 100+ goal involvements aged 30+ (Teddy Sheringham, Frank Lampard, Ian Wright, Alan Shearer, and Gianfranco Zola).
- Emiliano Martínez has kept 12 clean sheets in 22 Premier League games for Aston Villa this season, the most by a Villa keeper in a single top-flight season since Brad Friedel in 2009-10 (15 in 38 apps).
ARSENAL V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm This fixture deserves the prime Sunday TV slot and it should be a cracker. I’m very surprised to see Man City as big as 1.54 here though as they have been in excellent form. Anyone that was a fan of xG could see they were coming into form and they have shot clear at the top of the table. They have won their last 12 Premier League games and I’m very happy to have a max bet on them at the odds. Arsenal have been very poor this season, and looking at the volume of chances Man City are creating at the moment it’s hard to see how this Arsenal side can stop them from scoring. Arsenal have been particularly poor this season looking at the xG figures.
I know Liverpool and Spurs have been out of sorts lately, but City absolutely put them to the sword and Arsenal have been just as poor. I would be very tempted to get on City on the 1.5 and 2.5 handicap, but I would have them closer to 1.4 here rather than 1.54 and it’s hard to look anywhere else when you see value like that on offer. Even against the likes of Aston Villa and Wolves, Arsenal haven’t been creating much and they were lucky to get a 0-0 draw against United here recently too. I feel everything points to a City win here and the odds deserve a max bet in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Manchester City to beat Arsenal at 1.54 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarlmnc
- Arsenal have lost their last seven league games against Man City – the Gunners have only ever lost more consecutively against Leeds (8 between 1973-1976).
- Since losing 1-2 at the Emirates in December 2015, Man City are unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League meetings with Arsenal, scoring at least twice in nine of those games.
- Arsenal have failed to score in their last three home league games against Man City, losing each time. The Gunners have never failed to find the net in four consecutive home league games against an opponent in their history.
- Manchester City beat Arsenal 4-1 at the Emirates earlier this season in a League Cup tie – only two teams have ever won away at the Gunners twice in the same season; Nottingham Forest in 1987-88 and Aston Villa in 1993-94.
- Arsenal have won just three of their last 18 Premier League games against the side starting the day of the game in top spot (W3 D4 L11), winning last time out against Liverpool in July 2020 (2-1). They last won consecutive such games in August 2007, when the second win in that run came at home to Man City (1-0).
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last six home Premier League games (W3 D3), after losing each of the previous four such matches – the Gunners have scored 3+ goals in each victory in this run, while they have kept a clean sheet in three of the last four.
- Manchester City have scored 3+ goals in each of their last three Premier League games against London sides (3 v Chelsea, 4 v Crystal Palace, 3 v Tottenham) – in the competition’s history only Liverpool in 2001 and Sheffield Wednesday in 1994 have scored 3+ goals in four consecutive games against teams from the capital.
- This will be Pep Guardiola’s 50th Premier League game played on a Sunday with Manchester City (W32 D8 L9), with the Spaniard winning 65% of those matches; the best win rate by a manager on this day of the week in the competition’s history (min. 10 games).
- Man City’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in six goals in his last five Premier League games against Arsenal (4 goals, 2 assists), finding the net in each of his last three against the Gunners.
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored five goals in his last two Premier League starts, netting twice against Newcastle, followed by a hat-trick against Leeds. The last Gunners player to score 2+ goals in three consecutive league starts was Derek Tapscott in March 1956, who scored braces against Portsmouth, Everton and Preston.
MANCHESTER UNITED V NEWCASTLE
7pm This fixture has some excellent history down through the years, but it’s fair to say we have two very different sides today! Man United were in top form midweek when beating Real Sociedad 4-0 in the Europa League, but you would have to worry about their recent 1-1 draw with West Brom when considering backing them at 1.32. I’m not a fan of Newcastle, but that 1.32 is just too short on United in my opinion. They have had too many disappointing results at home this season to lump on those odds, even allowing for how poor Newcastle are.
Newcastle could be under a little bit of pressure soon if Fulham can get close to them. There’s still a bit of a gap for Newcastle, but they need to keep picking up points so it doesn’t get too close. Realistically Newcastle are the only side Fulham can catch, so there is a little bit of pressure. Chelsea brushed aside Newcastle on Monday night, but prior to that they played well against Southampton, Crystal Palace and Everton, playing their best football of the season in fairness to them. I think they can keep the score line respectable here, even if they might lose the game. The 1.96 on Newcastle +1.5 goals is worth a small bet in what must be said is a tricky game for betting with United so short. United haven’t blown many teams away this season and they will probably have to grind out a win here so the handicap looks a nice option.
The Striker Says:
One point win Newcastle +1.5 goals to beat Manchester United at 1.96 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunnwc
- Manchester United have won four of their last five Premier League games against Newcastle (L1), winning the last two by a 4-1 scoreline.
- Newcastle have won just one of their last 35 away league games against Manchester United (D9 L25), winning 1-0 at Old Trafford in December 2013.
- Manchester United haven’t won three consecutive league games by a 3+ goal margin against a side since doing so versus Aston Villa between April 2013-March 2014.
- Only against Liverpool (81) have Newcastle United lost more matches in their entire league history than versus Manchester United (80). The Magpies have lost 49 away league games against the Red Devils.
- Manchester United have conceded the first goal in 11 different Premier League games this season (W7 D1 L3), winning a league-high seven times after conceding first.
- Manchester United have won more Premier League points (529) and games (154) on Sundays than any other side in the competition’s history. The Red Devils have averaged 1.86 points-per-game on Sundays in the Premier League, the best such ratio on that day of the week (min. 3 games).
- Newcastle have lost all three Premier League games without scoring when Callum Wilson has been absent this season – the forward has netted 40% of their Premier League goals this season (10 of 25).
- Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has taken just one point from 33 available in his Premier League visits to Old Trafford (D1 L10), drawing 2-2 with Sunderland in October 2009.
- Luke Shaw has provided five assists for Man Utd in the Premier League this season; his best return in a single season in the competition, with the left-back assisting in each of his last three PL appearances (4 in total). Only three players have assisted in four consecutive Premier League appearances for the club (Ryan Giggs, 5 apps in 2003; Nani, 4 apps in 2010; Antonio Valencia, 5 apps in 2011).
- Marcus Rashford has been involved in six goals in his six Premier League appearances against Newcastle (3 goals, 3 assists), scoring one and assisting two in Man Utd’s 4-1 win in the reverse fixture at St James’ Park this season.
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