THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s four Premier League games between SOUTHAMPTON v BURNLEY, NEWCASTLE v SPURS, ASTON VILLA v FULHAM and MAN U v BRIGHTON all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
SOUTHAMPTON V BURNLEY
12pm We have another excellent day in the Premier League on Sunday and we start the day with Southampton hosting Burnley. Southampton would have been one of the sides who welcomed the International as they were in reasonably poor form in the Premier League. They did go into the break after a win in the FA Cup, but that only came against Bournemouth. They have a good chance of getting back to winning ways in the Premier League here, as Burnley have been very average. They were close to looking over their shoulders towards the bottom three, but a win against Everton has put a bit of distance between them and the bottom three.
That win for Burnley was undeserved looking at the xG figures, and you could say that a lot about Burnley this season. Another recent example was their 1-1 draw with Arsenal when they conceded an xG of 2.86. To be fair to Burnley, they were never a flashy side and always had to grind out results and to their credit they do that. Even though Southampton have had some poor results recently, their performances haven’t been too. They could have easily drawn the games against Brighton, Everton and Leeds and while Burnley might try and make this a scrappy affair, I can see Southampton outclassing them in the end – the 2.16 is worth taking.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Southampton to beat Burnley at 2.16 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsoubrn
- Southampton won the reverse fixture against Burnley 1-0 in September, ending a run of seven league games without a win against the Clarets (D3 L4). They’ve not done the league double over Burnley since the 1970-71 campaign.
- Burnley have won four of their 28 away league games against Southampton (D11 L13), though two of those victories have come in their last three visits to St Mary’s (1-0 in November 2017, 2-1 in February 2020).
- Having scored five goals in their first three Premier League meetings with Burnley (W2 L1), Southampton have netted just four times in their subsequent eight top-flight games against them (W1 D3 L4).
- Since beating Liverpool in their first league game of 2021, Southampton have now lost 10 of their last 12 in the Premier League (W1 D1), picking up fewer points this calendar year than any other top-flight side (7).
- Southampton scored at least twice in each of their first six home league games this season, netting an average of 2.2 per game (13 in total). Since then, Saints have scored just five goals in eight games at St Mary’s Stadium and never more than once in a match.
- 50% of Burnley’s 10 away league goals this season have come in their last three games on the road (3-0 vs Crystal Palace and 2-1 vs Everton). The Clarets are looking to secure back-to-back away league wins for the first time since July 2020.
- Burnley have both scored (32% – 7/22) and conceded (27% – 10/37) a league-high share of their Premier League goals in the opening 15 minutes of games so far this season. Indeed, the Clarets have either scored or conceded in this timeframe in each of their last four Premier League matches.
- Southampton have conceded 51 Premier League goals this season (the second highest in the division), but have an expected goals against tally of 38.6, meaning they’ve conceded around 12 goals more than expected based on the quality of chances faced. It’s the biggest such difference in the Premier League this term.
- Southampton striker Danny Ings has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances against sides he’s previously played for in the competition, including a goal in each of his last two games against Burnley. Only three players have scored in four consecutive Premier League games against former sides – Robbie Keane in 2004, Jermain Defoe in 2009 and Wilfried Bony in 2017.
- Chris Wood’s six Premier League goals have been worth nine points to Burnley this season – only Danny Ings in 2014-15 and Wood himself in 2017-18 (both 12) have earned more for the Clarets in a single campaign in the competition.
NEWCASTLE V TOTTENHAM
2.05pm A massive game. Indeed, this is the biggest game of the day. Make no mistake, Newcastle are under immense pressure now at the bottom of the table. Fulham may have lost a bit of momentum with two losses before the International break, but there’s still only two points between them and Newcastle. Newcastle could end the day in the bottom three. This is a huge game for Spurs too after Chelsea lost ground against West Brom on Saturday. This is a huge chance for Spurs to gain ground and possibly get back in the Top Four mix for the run-in. You wouldn’t have thought that a couple of weeks ago! In fairness to Jose Mourinho, he has weathered a rough patch well. Maybe he is learning from experience, usually he’s sacked or left by now!
Spurs may have faced the embarrassment of getting knocked out of the Europa League with a shock 3-0 loss recently, but they have been on a good run in the Premier League. They came up short against Arsenal, but they have been putting the weaker sides to the sword and they should really beat this Newcastle side. Premier League fans might say it would be “very Spursy” if they dropped points here after Chelsea have opened the door, but they must take this chance. Newcastle are a very poor side and although they have picked up some draws lately, their xG figures have been poor. They gave away an xG of 1.87 in a 0-0 draw with West Brom for example, and with Spurs creating some decent chances they should win. It’s not a bet to go mad about, but the 1.69 is good value in my view.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Newcastle at 1.69 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnewttm
- Newcastle have lost five of their last six Premier League home games against Tottenham (W1), more than they had in their previous 26 against them in the top-flight (W13 D9 L4).
- Tottenham have won each of their last three Premier League away games against Newcastle, since a 1-5 loss on the final day of the 2015-16 campaign. They’ve never won four consecutive away league games against the Magpies.
- No team has both scored and conceded in more different Premier League home games this season than Newcastle (11). Indeed, each of the Magpies’ six Premier League home games in 2021 has seen both teams score.
- Since winning back-to-back league games against Crystal Palace and West Brom, Newcastle have won just two of their last 18 Premier League games (D5 L11). The Magpies have picked up fewer points in this period than any other Premier League side (11).
- Tottenham have won four of their last five Premier League matches (L1), as many as they had in their previous 15 in the competition (D4 L7). Away from home, Spurs have won two of their last three league games (L1), more than in their previous eight on the road (W1 D3 L4).
- Newcastle have scored a league-low ratio 32% of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season (9/28), while Tottenham have shipped a league-low share of their goals conceded in the opening 45 minutes (36.7% – 11/30).
- Tottenham have scored 10 goals from direct attacks this season, more than any other Premier League side. A direct attack is one that starts inside a team’s own half and contains at least 50% of ball movement towards the opposition’s goal, highlighting Tottenham’s effective counter attacking game.
- Tottenham won this exact fixture 3-1 under José Mourinho last season. It was the Portuguese manager’s first ever Premier League away win against Newcastle, having failed to win any of his first seven visits to St James’ Park (D3 L4).
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has been involved in 43 goals in 40 games in all competitions this season (27 goals, 16 assists), just two short of his best ever season in his senior career (41 goals and 4 assists in 2017-18).
- Tottenham’s Harry Kane has had more ball carries ending with a shot (29) and more carries ending with an assist (6) than any other player in the Premier League this season. His overall tally of 13 Premier League assists this season has only been bettered by two Tottenham players – Christian Eriksen in 2016-17 (15) and Darren Anderton in 1994-95 (14).
ASTON VILLA V FULHAM
4.30pm If Spurs manage to beat Newcastle in the earlier game, then this fixture becomes a chance for Fulham to finally get out of the bottom three! They will fancy their chances too, as Villa have only managed one win in their last six games. While they have been one of my favourite sides to back in the Premier League this season because of the value on offer, you can see by their xG figures they have dropped their level a bit. That’s a worrying sign on the run-in, but they have been excellent going forward this season in general so they just need to find their form again. Fulham were unlucky to lose to Leeds prior to the International break, and their loss against Man City was to be expected.
That shows how hard it is to get out of the bottom three when you start so far behind. They have done so much hard work to catch up, now going past is the hard bit. We saw with Watford last season, it’s very hard to keep the momentum going but today could be an excellent day for Fulham. Although they have had some disappointing results lately, their xG figures are good. They didn’t deserve to lose against Leeds, and they were very unlucky to draw 0-0 with Crystal Palace. I feel Villa are too short here at 2.3 and I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest. Villa have looked out of sorts lately, and Fulham are playing well enough to get a result here.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Fulham at 2.3 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQastful
- Aston Villa are looking to complete their first league double over Fulham since the 2009-10 Premier League campaign, following their 3-0 win at Craven Cottage earlier this season.
- Fulham have won just one of their last 17 away league games against Aston Villa (D7 L9), though it was in their last such visit to Villa Park in the Premier League (2-1 in April 2014).
- 11 of Aston Villa’s 12 Premier League wins this season have seen them keep a clean sheet, with the exception being their 7-2 victory over Liverpool in October. Indeed, since that victory, the Villans have lost 11 of their 13 games in which they’ve conceded at least once, drawing the other two.
- Fulham are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League away games, the longest such run in their top-flight history. They’ve also kept a clean sheet in four of their last six Premier League games on the road, as many as in their previous 50 in the competition.
- Aston Villa have won just one of their last seven Premier League games (D3 L3), failing to score on four occasions in that run. The Villans had only failed to score in three of their first 21 league games this term.
- Fulham have lost three of their last four Premier League games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 15 (W2 D10).
o Fulham have the biggest difference between expected goals (34.1) and goals scored (23) in the Premier League this season, netting 11 fewer goals than expected based on the quality of their chances.
o Aston Villa have used the fewest different players (21), made the fewest starting XI changes (31) and have the youngest average starting line-up (25y 225d) in the Premier League this season.
o Since netting the winner against Arsenal in February, Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins hasn’t scored in any of his last seven Premier League games, with the striker failing to score with any of his last 17 shots in the competition.
o Bobby De Cordova-Reid is Fulham’s highest scoring player in the Premier League this season with five goals. No side has a lower scoring top scorer in the competition this term (West Brom and Wolves also 5).
MANCHESTER UNITED V BRIGHTON
7.30pm We end Sunday with another excellent fixture. While there are more important games today, this fixture is intriguing from a betting point of view. I’m sure there will be a lot of strong opinions either way on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Manchester United’s price of 1.71. It’s fair to say that the International break came at the worst possible time for Brighton. They had been playing their best football of the season, and while they were desperately unlucky to lose some games, they managed to find two wins against Southampton and Newcastle. They absolutely dominated Newcastle, conceding an xG of just 0.09. We all know how unlucky they have been too, they lost 1-0 to West Brom with an xG of 3.28! And 2-1 to Crystal Palace with an xG of 3.03.
United who have been pleased to see Chelsea drop points yesterday as that does take the pressure off in the race for a Top Four finish. They have a busy schedule coming up too with the Europa League, although they did get knocked out of the FA Cup before the International break against Leicester. United have been hit-and-miss this season, especially at home. They tend to under-perform against the smaller sides, and they could easily do that here. Brighton went into the International break playing their best football of the season, and if they can keep that level then the 1.71 on United here is much too short. The United lay is my best bet of the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Brighton at 1.71 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunbha
- Manchester United have won each of their last five meetings with Brighton in all competitions, netting exactly three goals in each of the last four.
- Brighton have never won away against Manchester United in 12 previous visits (D2 L10), losing each of their last six games at Old Trafford against the Red Devils.
- 23% of the goals scored in Premier League meetings between Manchester United and Brighton have been from the penalty spot (5/22) – no fixture has seen a higher ratio scored from the spot in the competition (min. 20 goals scored).
- Manchester United are looking to keep five consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since August 2017 under José Mourinho.
- Brighton are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since October 2018.
- Brighton have won three of their last five Premier League away games (D1 L1), having won just two of their first nine on the road this season (D3 L4). The Seagulls could become the first team to win away at both Liverpool and Manchester United in the same Premier League season since Aston Villa and Chelsea did so in 2009-10.
- Only Manchester City (70) and Chelsea (82) have faced fewer shots on target than Brighton in the Premier League this season (92). However, the Seagulls have conceded 39.1% of these shots on target (36 goals conceded), with only Southampton shipping a higher share this term (39.2% – 51/130).
- In his two Premier League appearances against Brighton, Bruno Fernandes has been involved in four of Manchester United’s six goals against the Seagulls (3 goals, 1 assist), netting a late winner in the reverse fixture at the Amex Stadium.
- Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored two Premier League goals against former side Manchester United, both with Arsenal. No player to have previously played for the Red Devils in the competition has scored as many as three against them after leaving, while Welbeck could be the fourth former player to score against them with two different clubs after Keith Gillespie (Blackburn and Sheffield United, Paul Ince (Liverpool and Middlesbrough) and Fraizer Campbell (Sunderland and Cardiff).
- Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has scored seven winning goals in the Premier League this season, more than any other player. The last Man Utd player to score more in a single season was Wayne Rooney in 2011-12 (9).
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