THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s two Premier League games between ARSENAL v FULHAM and MAN U v BURNLEY with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
ARSENAL V FULHAM
1.30pm It’s a shortened Premier League fixture list for Super Sunday as it’s an FA Cup Semi-Final weekend but we have two interesting games to get stuck into on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. A home win double will be very popular today; but will it land? Arsenal were really impressive when winning 4-0 midweek in the Europa League – they were under pressure as they conceded a late goal in the first leg and they blew Slavia Prague away. They have been playing their best football of the season in recent weeks to be fair, although their results might not fully show that – they are creating a big volume of chances and they are worth backing at 1.76 to beat this Fulham side.
Fulham have ran out of steam in recent weeks, and Newcastle winning against Burnley would have been a huge blow to their hopes of staying up too. I said this when Fulham were winning but we saw the same situation with Watford last season, they found themselves so far behind and they put in a huge effort to chance up but eventually that momentum runs out. It’s so difficult to catch up, and then actually go past – you need to play at a top level for so long. Fulham have bumped into the likes of Man City and Spurs to slow them down, although in fairness they did beat Liverpool! You can see looking at the xG figures that Fulham’s level has dropped and we landed a nice bet on Wolves last weekend. We can land a nice bet on Arsenal here, as they tend to perform very well against the lower side who give them time and space. I won’t go mad with the staking because it’s Arsenal, but this should be a routine home win and the 1.76 is too big.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Fulham at 1.76 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarsful
- Arsenal have never lost at home against Fulham in 29 previous meetings (W24 D5), more than they’ve faced any other side at home without defeat in all competitions.
- Fulham have lost each of their last six Premier League meetings with Arsenal, conceding 18 goals and scoring just three in reply.
- Arsenal’s last three Premier League games against Fulham have seen the Gunners win 5-1, 4-1 and 3-0. In their top-flight history, they’ve never beaten an opponent by at least three goals in four consecutive games before.
- Arsenal have lost just one of their last 42 home league games against sides in the relegation zone (W39 D2), though it was in their last such match against Burnley back in December (0-1).
- Arsenal are looking to win back-to-back league games for the first time since January. However, the Gunners have lost eight home games in all competitions this season, their most in a single campaign since 1929-30 (9).
- As well as having the lowest shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season (6.4%), Fulham have the biggest difference between expected goals (35.9) and goals scored (24), meaning they’ve scored around 12 goals fewer than would normally be expected.
- Fulham have lost each of their last four Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 17 in the competition (W3 D10 L4).
- Both Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette have found the net in all three of their Premier League games for Arsenal against Fulham, with both strikers netting four goals each in these meetings.
- Alexandre Lacazette is Arsenal’s highest league scorer this season with 13 goals, with the Frenchman only netting more in a Premier League campaign in 2017-18 (14). Meanwhile, only Harry Kane (7) has scored more Premier League London derby goals this season than Lacazette (5).
- Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic has played in more Premier League London derbies without ever ending on the winning side than any other player in the competition’s history, with the Serbian drawing two and losing 14 of his 16 such appearances.
MANCHESTER UNITED V BURNLEY
4pm Next up we have Man United hosting Burnley in what should be a routine home win for United. I say that, but we all know that they can easily slip up against the smaller sides at home in recent years! Everything points to a United win here however, as they come into the game in superb form while Burnley are finishing the season poorly. I know we are running out of games, but if Fulham could pull off an unexpected win in the earlier game I would suggest it would be Burnley under pressure not Newcastle – just by the way they are playing at the moment. Regardless, it’s highly likely Fulham are going down after recent results so Burnley might not have to worry. United should blow them away given the form they are in, and if anything the 1.37 looks too big on a home win.
United were very impressive against Spurs in the second half last Sunday, and they breezed through their Europa League Quarter Final midweek too. They are favourites to land that competition and given the situation in the Top Four, they can probably afford to focus on the Europa League now. Another win or two would see them mathematically certain of the Top Four and they can notch up one of those wins here. I have to say the 1.37 is a very tempting bet – it’s definitely one for any BETDAQ Multiple today – but I’m going to back them to cover the handicap. They are currently trading 2.06 -1.5 goals and that looks massive given the volume of chances they have created lately. The Arsenal and United double looks another good bet today too.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester United -1.5 goals to beat Burnley at 2.06 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunbrn
- Manchester United are looking to complete their first league double over Burnley since the 1975-76 campaign, following their 1-0 win at Turf Moor in the reverse fixture.
- Burnley won this exact fixture 2-0 last season, last winning consecutive away league games against Man Utd back in September 1962.
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last four Premier League away games against Man Utd (W1 D3) – the only team to avoid defeat in five consecutive Premier League visits to Old Trafford is Chelsea, who did so in six consecutive games between 1994 and 1998.
- The home side won three of the first four Premier League meetings between Man Utd and Burnley (D1) – since then, the home side has failed to win any of the nine meetings between the sides (D3 L6).
- Manchester United have come from behind to win nine Premier League games this season – in the competition’s history, only Newcastle in 2001-02 (10) have won more having fallen behind.
- Manchester United are looking to win five consecutive Premier League games for the first time since they won their first six under manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær in January 2019.
- Since winning back-to-back league games against Liverpool and Aston Villa in January, Burnley have won just two of their subsequent 12 Premier League matches (D5 L5). Both of these victories have come away from home, however (vs Crystal Palace and Everton).
- Burnley’s Chris Wood has scored in his last two Premier League games away against Man Utd. Only five visiting players have scored in three consecutive appearances at Old Trafford in the competition – Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (2001), Mark Viduka (2007), Emmanuel Adebayor (2014), Sergio Agüero (2015) and Gylfi Sigurdsson (2017).
- Man Utd’s Mason Greenwood has scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances, having scored in just one of his first 23 games this season. The 19-year-old has scored 13 Premier League goals in total, with only Wayne Rooney (15) scoring more as a teenager for the Red Devils in the competition.
- No player has had more shots without scoring in the Premier League this season than Burnley’s Josh Brownhill (27). Indeed, Brownhill hasn’t scored with any of his 33 attempts in the competition since his debut for the Clarets in February 2020.
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