THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games between NEWCASTLE v ARSENAL, MAN U v LIVERPOOL and TOTTENHAM v SHEFFIELD UNITED all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
NEWCASTLE V ARSENAL
2pm Another fantastic Super Sunday in the Premier League! All eyes will be on Manchester United v Liverpool later on, but we have three very interesting games to enjoy and much to discuss looking at the markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the day with the classic question of ‘Can you trust Arsenal away?” I must admit I have been burnt by Arsenal in recent weeks – of course you always keep stakes pretty low when Arsenal are involved, but they have thrown away games they should have won recently. We were against them against Everton, but they let us down against Fulham – they actually bossed the game and finished with an xG of 2.92 but it was classic Arsenal to draw 1-1. This is another game that they should win on paper, and they are trading 2.1 which is in and around their odds for most games like this these days.
Of course we must factor in the fact that Arsenal have a huge Europa League game on Thursday night and they could easily have one eye, or both eyes, on that fixture. After all, what can they achieve in the Premier League? Winning the Europa League is their only way back into Europe next season, and although they lost the first leg 2-1 on Thursday night, they aren’t in a bad position with an away goal. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some players rested here, and I feel Arsenal are worth laying at 2.1. Newcastle are a very limited side and I wouldn’t be a fan of them, but they have responded well when Fulham looked like catching them and they have been creating some good chances recently – they can get a result here.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Newcastle at 2.1 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQnwcars
- Newcastle have lost 15 of their last 16 league games against Arsenal, winning the other 2-1 in April 2018.
- After losing their first three Premier League away games against Newcastle, Arsenal have suffered defeat in just three of their subsequent 22 visits to St James’ Park (W11 D8).
- Arsenal have won their last six meetings with Newcastle in all competitions, keeping a clean sheet in their last five. Only against Barnsley (between 1952-1998) and Blackburn (between 2003-2005) have they won six consecutive matches without conceding.
- Newcastle have kept just one clean sheet in their last 20 Premier League home games, doing so in a 0-0 draw with Liverpool in December. The Magpies have both scored and conceded in their last eight home league games, and are unbeaten in their last five at St James’ Park (W2 D3).
- Newcastle have lost just one of their last eight Premier League games (W2 D5), having lost eight of their 10 league matches prior to this run (W2).
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four Premier League away games (W2 D2), scoring three goals in each of their last two (3-3 v West Ham, 3-0 v Sheffield United). The Gunners haven’t scored at least three times in three consecutive away league games since October 2015.
- No side has conceded more own goals in the Premier League than Arsenal this season (4), with the Gunners losing their last league match courtesy of a Bernd Leno own goal. Only in 2011-12 (5) have the Gunners suffered more own goals in a Premier League season.
- Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored in his last four appearances against Newcastle in all competitions. The last Arsenal player to score in five in a row against an opponent was Olivier Giroud against Aston Villa (6 between 2013-2016).
- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored in both of Arsenal’s meetings with Newcastle in all competitions this season – the last Arsenal player to score in three games against an opponent in the same season was Alexis Sánchez versus Hull in 2014-15.
- Newcastle’s Callum Wilson scored in each of his first three Premier League appearances against Arsenal, but has since failed to find the net in his five meetings with the Gunners in all competitions.
MANCHESTER UNITED V LIVERPOOL
4.30pm Undoubtedly the highlight of the weekend as old rivals clash! This is a far more important game for Liverpool though who are really struggling in the race for the Top Four. They are massively on the backfoot after drawing with Leeds and Newcastle in the last two weeks and they are highly likely to miss out on Champions League football next season. All they can do is try to win all their fixture and hope the rest slip up. United are in the comfortable position of second, away from the drama in behind and unfortunately for them too far away from Man City to worry about the title. They put their Europa League Semi-Final to bed on Thursday with a 6-2 win in the first leg over Roma, and they look in excellent form.
That being said, although they have a four goal advantage I wouldn’t be surprise if they had one eye on the Europa League. They look locked in for a Top Four spot and now it’s about getting to the end of the season healthy and in good form for the Europa League Final. Ole will likely play a full strength side here though, and United look too big at 2.86. Liverpool just haven’t played well enough to justify their odds of 2.6 here. I know they were a great side last season, but they have been totally different since Christmas and United have been playing some excellent football. It’s very tempting to lay Liverpool and have the draw on side, especially in what should be a tight game and there is always very little between these two. However, I’m too tempted by the 2.86 on United not to back them – they have a lot going for them today and those odds are just too big.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Manchester United to beat Liverpool at 2.86 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmnuliv
- Manchester United have lost just one of their last 15 home games against Liverpool in all competitions (W10 D4), and are unbeaten in their last eight since a 0-3 loss in March 2014.
- Liverpool haven’t lost consecutive games against Man Utd in all competitions since a run of four between 2014/2016, with the Reds losing 3-2 at Old Trafford in the FA Cup in January.
- Manchester United have avoided defeat in both meetings with Liverpool in all competitions this season (W1 D1) – the last time they faced Liverpool as many as three times in a season without losing any was in 1998-99 (W2 D1), with this the eighth campaign they’ve met more than twice since then.
- In the Premier League, Manchester United have won just one of their last nine meetings with Liverpool (D6 L2), and are winless in five against the Reds (D3 L2). They last had a longer winless run against Liverpool in the top-flight between December 1989 and October 1992 (7 games).
- Manchester United have drawn seven league games 0-0 this season – only in 1980-81 (8) have they been involved in more goalless draws in a single league campaign. The Red Devils have the most goalless draws of any side in the Premier League this season.
- Manchester United have won 28 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season, with only Newcastle in 2001-02 (34) and Man Utd themselves in 2012-13 (29) earning more in a single campaign. Meanwhile, Liverpool have dropped 15 points from winning positions this term, their most in a season since 2016-17 (18).
- Liverpool have won five of their last seven away league games (D1 L1), more than they had in their previous 15 on the road (W4 D6 L5).
- Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp has managed away at Man Utd without ever winning more times than any other opponent in his managerial career (6 – D4 L2).
- Marcus Rashford has been involved in five goals in his last four games in all competitions for Man Utd against Liverpool at Old Trafford, scoring four and assisting one.
- Mohamed Salah scored twice in Liverpool’s 2-3 defeat at Manchester United in the FA Cup this season. The only Liverpool player to score away against Man Utd in two different games in a season was 100 years ago – Harry Chambers in 1920-21.
TOTTENHAM V SHEFFIELD UNITED
7.15pm We finish the day with Spurs who are adjusting life without Jose Mourinho. They suffered a loss in the Carabao Cup last weekend and although it was only 1-0 to Man City the xG figures suggested Spurs were woeful in attack. They barely created anything, and one wonders what Harry Kane will do this summer – it’s likely he will leave in my opinion but there might not be many clubs willing to pay the huge fee given we haven’t had any fans in the stadiums recently. Before Sheffield United beat Brighton last weekend, I felt they had given up on their season. I still have that belief looking at the xG figures from that game because they were very lucky to win – Brighton finished with an xG of 1.96 – classic Brighton!
Given the situation at Spurs, I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 1.31. They have come out and said they won’t be hiring a manager before the end of the season and will look at their options in the summer. I am fascinated to see what kind of reaction we get from the players, and while they could easily blow away a side like Sheffield United, I’m still keen to avoid backing 1.31. You couldn’t argue Spurs should be shorter. This is a game for small stakes, but I can see Sheffield United “having a go” because they have nothing to lose and Spurs have been giving away far too many goals this season. Both Teams To Score is worth a small bet at 2.05 – we’re taking a chance with Sheffield United as they haven’t been scoring a lot – but you only have to look at the Spurs xG figures to see they give away a lot of chances.
The Striker Says:
One point win Both Teams To Score at 2.05 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQtotshu
- Tottenham are looking to complete their first league double over Sheffield United since the 1975-76 campaign, following their 3-1 win at Bramall Lane earlier this season.
- Sheffield United are winless in all four of their Premier League away games against Spurs (D2 L2), with their last away league win against them coming in November 1991 (1-0).
- Sheffield United have won just one of their last 25 Premier League games in London (D8 L16), beating Crystal Palace 1-0 in February 2020. The Blades have lost all five of their league games in the capital this season by an aggregate score of 12-2.
- Tottenham Hotspur have scored at least once in each of their last 10 Premier League games (W5 D2 L3), the longest current run in the competition.
- Sheffield United beat Brighton 1-0 last time out in their first game since having relegation confirmed. The Blades last won back-to-back league games in July 2020.
- No team has conceded more second half goals in the Premier League this season than Sheffield United (32), while Tottenham have conceded the highest share of their Premier League goals after half-time this term (63% – 24/38).
- Tottenham won their first Premier League game under Ryan Mason, 2-1 against Southampton. Both of their last two managers (Mauricio Pochettino and José Mourinho) won their first two Premier League games in charge, while Glenn Hoddle in 2001 is the only other Spurs manager to do so in the competition.
- Harry Kane has been involved in 34 goals in 30 Premier League games for Tottenham this season (21 goals, 13 assists), only registering more goal involvements in a single campaign in 2016-17 (36 – 29G 7A). The England striker has been involved in nine goals in his last six league games (7 goals, 2 assists), netting three braces in that run.
- David McGoldrick has scored 39% of Sheffield United’s Premier League goals this season (7/18), the highest ratio in the division. Tottenham’s Harry Kane is second in that regard this term with 38% (21/56).
- Sheffield United keeper Aaron Ramsdale has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of his last 26 away starts in the Premier League. If he fails to do so in this match, it will be the outright longest such run by a goalkeeper in the competition’s history (currently level with Russell Hoult between 2003-2005).