THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games between WOLVES v BRIGHTON, ASTON VILLA v MAN U, WEST HAM v EVERTON, ARSENAL v WEST BROM all with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WOLVES V BRIGHTON
12pm We’re all set for another fascinating Sunday in the Premier League, and we have some intriguing markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange today. We have four pretty open games, with Arsenal the shortest price later and they are hardly a team to trust either. We should have an excellent day! We start the day with Wolves hosting Brighton and I feel the jury is still out on whether Wolves are “on the beach” early. That was said a lot after their 4-0 loss to Burnley, and I feel the 1-1 draw with West Brom didn’t change much – West Brom created marginally more than them, and this seems a good chance for Brighton to follow up their win last weekend over Leeds. Brighton have played like one of the best teams in the Premier League this season, but their results haven’t reflected how good they have been. That being said, they have creeped up the table from being in a relegation battle at one stage.
Brighton are only five points off Wolves now, and it’s fair to say they actually have a good chance of finishing ahead of Wolves – but for that to happen they obviously need to win here. I feel they will, and the 2.36 is worth backing. I know results haven’t gone Brighton’s way this season, but they have played some excellent football and their xG figures have been very good. There’s more to football than xG figures, but Wolves have been largely unimpressive all season and they haven’t been themselves – they have given away too many chances and you have to feel a side like Brighton will take advantage of that. I would have Brighton around 2.2, and they can get the job done here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Wolves at 2.36 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwolbha
● Wolves have won just one of their last 13 league meetings with Brighton (D8 L4), with each of the last four games between the sides ending level.
● Brighton haven’t lost an away league game against Wolves since April 2006, winning one and drawing five since. The Seagulls have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four league visits to Molineux, though three of those games have finished 0-0.
● Wolves have never won a top-flight game against Brighton in 11 attempts (D4 L7) – it’s the most one team has faced another in English top-flight history without recording a win.
● Wolves have failed to score in eight of their 11 top-flight meetings with Brighton. They’ve netted six goals against the Seagulls in total, with half of these coming in their 3-3 draw in the reverse meeting.
● Wolves have lost three of their last four Premier League home games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 12 at Molineux (W5 D4).
● Brighton have won six of their 18 league games so far in 2021 (D6 L6), already one more than they managed in the whole of 2020 (W5 D16 L13).
● Wolves have scored more than two goals in just one of their last 37 Premier League games (36 goals in total), doing so in their 3-3 draw with Brighton in January.
● Only league leaders Manchester City (74) and last season’s champions Liverpool (55) have had more high turnovers that end in a shot in the Premier League this season than Brighton (52).
● Wolves winger Adama Traoré has completed 137 successful dribbles in the Premier League this season, at least 52 more than any other player. The Spaniard has also carried the ball a total of 7156 metres this term, a further distance than any non-defender in the Premier League.
● Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored five Premier League goals this season, last netting more in a single campaign in 2013-14 with Manchester United (9). His next goal will be his 50th in the Premier League.
ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER UNITED
2.05pm Another interesting fixture here, and although his injury is improving Aston Villa will still be without Jack Grealish. He makes a huge difference to Aston Villa going forward, and you only have to see their xG figures to see what an impact he makes. United managed to see off Roma midweek to reach the Europa League Final and I have to say they performed very poorly on Thursday night. They conceded an xG of 4.68 which seems remarkable really. With a four goal lead they probably would have aimed for a cagey game but they were very open at the back. It must be hard mentally when you’re four goals ahead to switch on, but even so it was an eye-catching performance at the back from a negative point of view! United do throw in the odd woeful match, and maybe that was a good time to get it out of the way when they had that advantage.
I said in my preview of Everton v Aston Villa last weekend that Everton needed to win if they wanted to challenge for the European spots, especially with a game in hand, and much like they have done all season they threw away their chance. Villa won 2-1 and performed pretty well. That followed up their xG of 3.17 against West Brom which was their best xG figure for a while, and they must fancy their chances here even without Grealish. Although United and Roma gelled together for an entertaining game, United have been playing quite an open game lately – they have been creating a lot of chances and I feel the best option here is goals. United look priced fairly at 1.87, while over 2.5 goals looks the value at 1.76.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.87 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQastmnu
● Aston Villa have picked up just one win in their last 44 Premier League games against Manchester United (D11 L32) and are winless in their last 16 against them since a 1-0 win at Old Trafford in December 2009.
● Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 21 Premier League away games against Aston Villa (W14 D7) since a 3-1 loss on the opening day of the 1995-96 campaign. It’s the longest unbeaten away run one side has had against another in English league history.
● In all competitions, Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 21 away games against Aston Villa since a 3-0 League Cup loss in October 1999. Only Liverpool at Sunderland (23 between 1959-2002) have had a longer unbeaten away run against an opponent in English football.
● Aston Villa’s 14 clean sheets this season is their most in a single Premier League campaign since 2009-10 (15). However, the Villans have conceded at least once in each of their last seven games, with no Premier League side on a longer current run without a clean sheet.
● Aston Villa are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since December. However, they’ve not beaten a team in the top two in the Premier League since March 2014 (1-0 vs Chelsea), drawing three and losing nine of their 12 such games since.
● Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 24 Premier League away games (W15 D9), just three short of Arsenal’s all-time top-flight record between April 2003 and September 2004. In their 10 away league games so far in 2021, Manchester United have kept seven clean sheets and conceded just once in each of the other three.
● Manchester United have lost just one of their last 27 Premier League matches (W17 D9). Indeed, the Red Devils are on the longest current unbeaten run in the Premier League, winning seven and drawing six since their 1-2 home loss to Sheffield United in January.
● Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has scored in both of his Premier League games against Aston Villa. Both goals came from the penalty spot, and both goals ended up being the winning goal of the game.
● After a run of one goal in 13 Premier League games, Aston Villa’s Anwar El Ghazi has scored in his last two top-flight appearances, including the winner at Everton last time out.
● Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins has initiated six open play sequences of play that have ended in a goal in the Premier League this season – no player has done so more often (Youri Tielemans also six).
WEST HAM V EVERTON
4.30pm As I said in the above fixture, Everton fluffed their lines again last weekend against Aston Villa and they have thrown away so many chances this season to get into the mix for the European spots. The same can’t be said about West Ham, who are bang in the mix for Champions League football – they couldn’t have dreamed to be here at the start of the season and now they have a great chances. Chelsea have a tough run-in and the Hammers will be woeful they drop points somewhere. They just have to keep winning and see what happens. Every game at this stage of the season is a must win game for West Ham. This should be a pretty good game, but West Ham have offered a lot of value this season and I feel they offer some very good value again here at 2.34.
They got back to winning ways last Monday night against Burnley, but we had a very open game and there could have been more goals than a 2-1 win. They needed that win after losing to Chelsea and Newcastle prior to that. However, even in the 3-2 defeat to Newcastle they created a host of chances down to ten men and they should have won if they didn’t make some terrible errors that gifted Newcastle goals. Everton haven’t been winning lately when they needed it the most, and their xG figures are “so-so” in the sense that they haven’t been playing badly, but they haven’t been playing great. I’m happy to back West Ham at the odds, but I’m also happy to keep stakes in check. The win is there for West Ham if they play well as Everton are pretty average, but at the same time I expect the game to be tight and only one goal between them at the end.
The Striker Says:
Two points win West Ham to beat Everton at 2.34 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwhuevr
● West Ham are looking to complete their first league double over Everton since 1972-73, following their 1-0 win at Goodison Park in January.
● Everton have won more Premier League games overall (26) and more Premier League away games (11) against West Ham than they have vs any other side in the competition.
● Everton have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League away games against West Ham (W7 D4), with the Toffees failing to score just once in that run. However, that defeat did come with David Moyes in charge of the Hammers (1-3 in May 2018).
● Everton have won four of their five Premier League games in London this season (L1), as many as they had in their previous 30 in the capital (D11 L15). The Toffees have never won as many as five games in London in a single top-flight campaign.
● West Ham have won 17 of their 34 Premier League games this season, their most in a single campaign in the competition. They last won more in a top-flight season back in 1985-86 when they finished third (26 in a 42-game season).
● Everton have won just one of their last seven Premier League games (D3 L3). However, 10 of their 15 league victories this season have come away from home. It’s their highest number of Premier League away wins in a season, with the Toffees last having more in 1984-85 (12).
● Everton boss Carlo Ancelotti has faced West Ham’s David Moyes more often without ever winning than he has any other manager in the Premier League (6 – D3 L3). Meanwhile, Moyes has only faced Alex McLeish and Paul Lambert (both 7) more often without losing in the Premier League.
● Michail Antonio has scored nine Premier League goals this season and could become the fifth West Ham player to reach double figures in consecutive campaigns in the competition after Tony Cottee, Frederic Kanoute, Carlton Cole and Marko Arnautovic.
● No player has had more shots without scoring in the Premier League this season than West Ham’s Saïd Benrahma (30).
● Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored seven headed goals in the Premier League this season. The last player to net more in a single campaign was Roque Santa Cruz in 2007-08 (8), while the only Everton player to score more in a season was Duncan Ferguson in 1997-98 (9).
ARSENAL V WEST BROM
7pm We finish a brilliant day with Arsenal at home to West Brom. I said above that Arsenal were the shortest price of any side today, and I actually think they are the best lay too. They haven’t nothing left to play for this season after crashing out of the Europa League on Thursday as they could only manage a 0-0 draw here with Villarreal after losing the first leg 2-1. They would have been very disappointed with that, and although they created more looking at the xG figures, it was just classic Arsenal. You could say the game was there for the taking, and they just found a way not to win. They are going to finish in mid-table, with no European football next season and who knows where the club goes from here. They could easily turn into a mid-table side without the cash or stars that European football brings in.
West Brom are obviously a very limited side and will be playing in the Championship next season, but they are actually finishing the season quite well. We see this pretty often, teams play with some freedom and just attack, or they just give up and play terribly. West Brom have put some wins together and scored some goals, and credit to them. Big Sam would love an Arsenal win and I can see him making sure his West Brom side put them under immense pressure. Arsenal could well still outclass them, but at 1.5 I’m happy to be against them. If they aren’t bang on form, West Brom can easily get a result here.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat West Brom at 1.5 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQarswba
● Arsenal have won 10 of their 12 home Premier League games against West Brom, failing only in November 2004 (1-1) and September 2010 (2-3).
● West Brom have lost each of their last seven Premier League away games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 15-1.
● Arsenal have scored in all 25 of their Premier League meetings with West Bromwich Albion, the best 100% scoring record one side has against another in the competition.
● Victory for Arsenal would see West Bromwich Albion relegated from the Premier League for a joint-record fifth time (along with Norwich). It would be their 11th top-flight relegation (only Birmingham with 12 have suffered more), while it would be manager Sam Allardyce’s first relegation from the Premier League.
● West Bromwich Albion have lost more top-flight matches against Arsenal (65) than they have versus any other side in their history, with 39 of those defeats arriving in London.
● Arsenal have lost seven home Premier League games in 2020-21; they last lost more home league matches in a single campaign in 1929-30 (9), a season in which the Gunners finished 14th in the table.
● After winning consecutive away Premier League games in April 2018, West Bromwich Albion have won just two of their subsequent 18 away games in the competition (D5 L11). Indeed, only Sheffield United (4) have collected fewer away points in the Premier League this term than the Baggies (11).
● West Bromwich Albion manager Sam Allardyce has lost 17 Premier League games against Arsenal (W5 D7), only losing more games in the competition versus Manchester City (18). In fact, Allardyce has never won an away game against Arsenal in the Premier League (D3 L11), losing on each of his last nine visits.
● Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang became the sixth Arsenal player to score 10+ goals in each of their first four Premier League seasons with the club after Ian Wright, Dennis Bergkamp, Thierry Henry, Olivier Giroud and Alexandre Lacazette. The Gabonese striker has also had a hand in 20 goals in 17 Premier League appearances against newly promoted teams (16 goals, 4 assists).
● Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette has scored four goals in his three Premier League appearances against West Brom, netting a brace in the Gunners’ 4-0 win at the Hawthorns in the reverse fixture.