SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action includes Tottenham v Chelsea at 4.30pm.
BRIGHTON V LEICESTER
2pm Some Super Sundays in the Premier League are better than others, and we have a cracker in store this week. We have three fascinating matches and intriguing betting heats on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s going to be a very interesting day, and we should know more about the Top Four race and title race by the end of it. We start the day with Brighton hosting Leicester and we have the most open market of the day. We’re actually very close to having 3.0 on all three outcomes, but the draw is 3.3 and that puts the two sides lower. Brighton are marginal favourites, and it’s hard to argue with that given how Leicester have started the season. They might have won two of their four games, but they have actually had four poor performances. In my opinion they definitely won’t challenge the Top Four this season, and could easily miss out on European football.
In their win over Wolves, they conceded an xG of 1.66 and created 0.55. They were very lucky to win 1-0, and then in their 2-1 win over Norwich they actually created less in front of goal but a draw would have been a fair result. They were dominated by Manchester City last weekend but City could only score once in the end. We all know what a good side Brighton have been over the last while but they have struggled to take their chances. The early sides are that is improving this season, and I like them here at 2.78. It’s tempting to lay Leicester at 2.9 and have the draw on my side as I expect the game to be close – but the 2.78 is big enough to back Brighton – Leicester seem there for the taking at the moment, it’s just about Brighton taking their chances.
The Striker Says:
One point win Brighton to beat Leicester at 2.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBrilei
● Brighton have lost their last two home league games against Leicester, as many as they had in their previous eight against them (W3 D3). They’ve never lost three in a row at home against the Foxes before.
● Leicester are unbeaten in all eight of their Premier League meetings with Brighton (W6 D2), the most they’ve faced a side without suffering defeat in the competition.
● With nine points from four games, this is Brighton’s best start to a league campaign since 2015-16 (10), and their best ever return at this stage of a top-flight season.
● Leicester have kept just one clean sheet in their last 10 Premier League games (W4 D1 L5), beating Wolves 1-0 on the opening weekend. Away from home, Leicester are without a clean sheet in nine consecutive league games, though the Foxes have also managed to score in each of these nine games.
● Leicester have had fewer shots than any other Premier League side so far this season (29). They’re averaging just 7.3 shots-per-game this season, over five fewer than they had last season (12.8).
● Only reigning champions Manchester City (15) and European champions Chelsea (15) have kept more Premier League clean sheets so far in 2021 than Brighton (11).
● Leicester’s last five Premier League games played on Sundays have produced a total of 23 goals (4.6 per game), with the Foxes scoring 12 and conceding 11.
● Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has been involved in eight goals in his eight Premier League games against Brighton, scoring five and assisting three.
● Brighton’s Alexis Mac Allister has been involved in two goals in his four Premier League games this season (1 goal, 1 assist), as many as he had in his previous 30 appearances in the competition. Both of his contributions have been from the bench this term, scoring the winning goal at Burnley and assisting Leandro Trossard’s winner at Brentford.
● Jamie Vardy could become the first Leicester player to reach 250 Premier League appearances in this match. He’s the Foxes leading appearance maker, goal scorer (120) and assist provider (39) in the Premier League, one of three players to lead all three metrics for a single club in the competition (also Wilfried Zaha at Crystal Palace and Troy Deeney at Watford).
WEST HAM V MANCHESTER UNITED
2pm Manchester United fans came crashing back down to earth on Tuesday night with a 2-1 loss to Young Boys in the Champions League. After all the Ronaldo fanfare at the weekend, we got memes on Tuesday when Ronaldo came off for Lingard. Everything was going well when Ronaldo put United in front, but after going down to ten men they created an xG of 0! The final nail in the coffin was the last minute winner for Young Boys and that leaves them in a difficult position in the Champions League. They still have the buzz domestically, but a loss here would knock the wind out of that sail too. How fitting would it be for David Moyes to stop their momentum? I’m sure he’ll be delighted to win here! West Ham got their first taste of European football for years on Thursday night, but this is always an entertaining fixture and we should have plenty of drama.
When you look at the United side over the last number of years, you always worry about these tricky away ties. This was before Ronaldo came, but they couldn’t beat Southampton although they dominated the game and then they didn’t deserve to beat Wolves. The fact they grinded out a 1-0 win under pressure is a positive rather than a negative but their performance was woeful, and playing like that won’t win many games. The good news for United fans is West Ham come into the game is pretty average form. They have only managed two draws from their last two Premier League games against Crystal Palace and Southampton, and they were two very average performances too. I would still be a little worried about Man United in these type of games, but I feel this is a good time to meet West Ham. It’s a game for small stakes, but I fancy United grind out another win here – if they can repeat the performance against Southampton, Ronaldo won’t miss the same chances.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat West Ham at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWesmun
● West Ham have won two of their last six Premier League games against Man Utd (D1 L3), though they are winless in three against the Red Devils. The Hammers had won just one of their previous 19 against them in the competition (D5 L13).
● Manchester United have won their last two Premier League meetings with West Ham, last winning three in a row against the Hammers in September 2014.
● West Ham are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games (W4 D3), their longest run in the competition since a streak of 10 games between February and April 2016.
● Manchester United are unbeaten in 28 Premier League away games, the longest ever run without defeat on the road in English league history. The Red Devils have conceded just 19 goals in this run, keeping 13 clean sheets in the process.
● After losing consecutive games against Tottenham and Arsenal last season, Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 16 Premier League games on Sundays (W11 D5). In Premier League history, the Red Devils have the highest win rate in Sunday games (min. 10 games) – 55% (163/297).
● Since leaving Manchester United in 2014, West Ham boss David Moyes has failed to win any of his seven games against the Red Devils in all competitions (D2 L5).
● Since his debut for West Ham in September 2015, the Hammers have won 41% of their Premier League games in which Michail Antonio has started (56/137), compared to just 28% when he doesn’t start (25/90).
● Man Utd’s Cristiano Ronaldo was involved in six goals in his last four Premier League appearances against West Ham in his first spell in the competition (5 goals, 1 assist). However, only against Chelsea (4) has the Portuguese ended on the losing side in the Premier League more than he has against the Hammers (3).
● Manchester United’s Paul Pogba has seven assists in the Premier League this season, more than in his previous two campaigns combined (6) and a record four games into a campaign in the competition. Indeed, only two players have had as many as seven assists in their team’s first five games – Thierry Henry in 2004-05 and Harry Kane last season.
● Man Utd’s Jesse Lingard scored nine goals in 16 Premier League appearances on loan at West Ham last season. The Hammers have had the most different players score both for and against them in the competition (46 – excl. OGs), with Lingard potentially adding to this list.
TOTTENHAM V CHELSEA
4.30pm We finish a brilliant Sunday afternoon with a London Derby as Spurs host Chelsea! You get the feeling that this is a massive game for Spurs after their 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace last weekend. That score line would have come as a surprise to most football fans, and while it was to me too, I laid Spurs because their performances had been very poor despite getting results. I said I was looking forward to having a bigger stake on a better side than Crystal Palace, and today is the day. Chelsea should win here and they are a Max Bet for me at 1.84. They are a very similar price to Manchester United away to West Ham earlier in the day, but Chelsea are much better value. Apart from their performance against Liverpool, Chelsea have been excellent this season and Spurs are there for the taking.
Despite winning their opening three games, Spurs were never playing well. They conceded an xG of 2.41 against Manchester City, conceded a bigger xG to Wolves when they won 1-0 and the game against Watford was pretty even. A loss was coming – and I have to say I didn’t expect Palace to win 3-0 – but it was coming. More depressingly for Spurs fans, they only created an xG of 0.10 against Palace and that is incredibly low against a side as average as Palace. Chelsea have been on the money this season and although they were outplayed by an excellent Liverpool performance, they have looked rock solid outside of that game. Spurs are playing very poor football at the moment, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chelsea hammer them.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Chelsea to beat Tottenham at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQTotche
● Tottenham have conceded more Premier League goals against Chelsea (103) than they have versus any other opponent, while they’ve only lost more games in the competition against Man Utd (36) than against the Blues (31).
● Chelsea have won their last two Premier League away games against Tottenham, as many as in their previous 13 visits (D5 L6). They last won three in a row at Spurs between April 2004 and August 2005.
● Tottenham have lost four of their last six Premier League London derby matches (W2), as many as they had in their previous 18 such games combined. Spurs have lost their last two such games, last losing three in a row in August 2005 – the third game of which came at home to Chelsea.
● Chelsea have won each of their last five away league London derbies – they’ve never won six in a row on the road before in their league history.
● Only twice before have Tottenham started a Premier League campaign with three home wins out of three, doing so in 2000-01 and 2002-03. Spurs have won eight of their last 10 league games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (L2), keeping six clean sheets in the process.
● Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their Premier League games under Thomas Tuchel (14/23) – it’s the best clean sheet ratio any manager has at a specific club in the competition’s history (min. 10 games).
● Tottenham are averaging just 9.5 shots-per-game in the Premier League under Nuno Espírito Santo this season, the lowest average on record for the club in the competition (since 2003-04). Meanwhile, only Watford (2.3) and Leicester (3.4) have a lower xG total than Spurs this season (3.7).
● After netting three goals in his first four Premier League games against Chelsea, Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored just once in his last eight in the competition against the Blues. However, Kane has been involved in 12 goals in his nine Premier League London derby matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (7 goals, 5 assists).
● Romelu Lukaku and Reece James scored Chelsea’s goals in their 2-0 win at Arsenal last month – in the Premier League era, only two players have scored for the Blues away against both Arsenal and Tottenham in the same season; Marcos Alonso in 2017-18 and Juan Mata in 2012-13.
● Since coming to the Premier League with Wolves in 2018, Tottenham boss Nuno Espírito Santo has seen his side fail to score in the first half in 83 of his 118 games in charge, more than any other manager. That accounts for 70% of his total games in charge, which is the highest ratio of any manager to have taken charge for at least two full seasons since 2018-19.