SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League matches including LIVERPOOL v MAN CITY at 4.30pm – all previews include a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
CRYSTAL PALACE V LEICESTER
2pm We have another busy day in the Premier League on Sunday with four fixtures before we head into the International Break. That came around very quickly didn’t – it doesn’t feel too long ago since the last International Break! I’m sure Liverpool v Manchester City will be the talking point of the day later, but first we have three very interesting markets kick off at 2pm on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We start the day with Crystal Palace taking on Leicester and I have to say I find this game a little tricky to get a hold on. I’m not a fan of Crystal Palace, and Leicester have been playing some very poor football this season. This could be a poor game for football, but it’s interesting from a betting point of view.
Perhaps I am being harsh on Crystal Palace this season. At the start of the season I felt they would be one of the sides who could go down, but in fairness to them their performances haven’t been bad, and so far there hasn’t been much to say they will go down. I was wrong on that call, and I need to move on from that. If you just look at xG figures going into this game, then you want to be against Leicester. The xG table actually puts Leicester in the bottom five before the weekend fixtures start and although Palace are a point behind them in the actual table, the xG table has Palace way ahead. Even in their two wins this season, Leicester conceded a bigger xG figure than they created. This is a game for small stakes for me, but I’m happy to lay Leicester at 2.38. That’s too short given the way they have played.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Crystal Palace at 2.38 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCrylei
● After a four-game winning run against Leicester, Crystal Palace have failed to win any of their last four against the Foxes in the Premier League (D1 L3).
● Leicester have won just one of their last five away league games against Crystal Palace (D2 L2), winning 2-0 in November 2019.
● Leicester have lost each of their three Premier League away games against London sides, as many as they had in their previous 14 trips to the capital (W6 D5 L3).
● Crystal Palace are unbeaten in their three home league games this season (W1 D2), conceding just one goal at Selhurst Park so far. They’ve only remained unbeaten in their first four home league games in one of the last 24 campaigns (2019-20).
● Since keeping back-to-back away clean sheets in February, Leicester have conceded in each of their last 10 away Premier League games. However, they’ve also scored in each of these 10 games, with Blackburn being the last side to have a longer run of both scoring and conceding in top-flight away games (14 beween May 2011 and February 2012).
● Crystal Palace have had fewer shots on target than any other Premier League side this season (14). However, they’ve scored six goals, with only Brentford (50%) having a better shots on target to goals ratio than the Eagles this term (43%).
● Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has been involved in eight goals in 12 Premier League games against Leicester (6 goals, 2 assists), more than he has against any other side in the competition.
● Jamie Vardy has been involved in 86% of Leicester’s seven Premier League goals so far this season (5 goals, 1 assist). With 89 goals since turning 30, Vardy is also closing in on Ian Wright’s record of 93 Premier League goals scored after their 30th birthday.
● Wilfried Zaha has scored 49 Premier League goals, and could become the first player in Crystal Palace’s history to reach 50 goals in the top-flight.
● As a player, Crystal Palace manager Patrick Vieira lost none of his 11 Premier League games against Leicester (W8 D3), the most he ever faced a side without tasting defeat in the competition.
TOTTENHAM V ASTON VILLA
2pm Next we have a really interesting fixture and market as Spurs host Aston Villa. Spurs have been very poor this season, and in the past few weeks we have seen their results reflect their performances. At the start of the season, they were winning games but still not playing good football – every xG fan was waiting for the results to reflect the performances and that has happened with a bang. They have conceded nine goals in their last three Premier League games and only scored once. They were embarrassed early by Arsenal in the North London Derby last weekend going into half-time 3-0 down, and it will be fascinating to see where the club goes from here. They are playing so bad at the moment.
Aston Villa will look at this fixture and really fancy their chances, especially after beating Everton 3-0 and then winning 1-0 against Manchester United at Old Trafford last weekend. They definitely rode their luck when winning at Old Trafford, but sides like Villa are always going to have to do that to win. I feel Spurs look terribly short here at 2.18 – they’ve yet to put in an impressive performance this season in my opinion. To highlight how bad they have been playing, at the start of the weekend the xG table had them in the bottom three. Nothing they have done reflects this 2.18 price and I’m happy to lay them.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Aston Villa at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQTotast
● Tottenham have won 10 of their last 12 Premier League games against Aston Villa (L2), though those two defeats in that run have come in home games (0-1 in April 2015, 1-2 in May 2021).
● Aston Villa are looking to win consecutive league games against Spurs for the first time since September 2008, while they last won consecutive away games against the London side back in August 1995.
● Since the start of last season, Aston Villa have won three of their seven Premier League away games in London (D1 L3), including a 2-1 victory at Spurs. The Villans had won just three of their previous 29 top-flight visits to the capital before this (D4 L22).
● Tottenham have lost their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 9-1. They last lost four in a row in the competition in November 2004 (a run of 6).
● Aston Villa are looking for three consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since winning their first four games in the competition last season. Meanwhile, the last time the Villans won three consecutive top-flight games without conceding was in December 2009 (a run of four, of which the second was a 1-0 victory at Old Trafford).
● Tottenham have had fewer shots than any other Premier League side this season (56), and have the second lowest xG total in the competition this term (5.4).
● Son Heung-min has been involved in 10 goals in his last 11 Premier League games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (6 goals, 4 assists). The Korean has also netted three of Spurs’ four league goals so far this season, including both at home.
● Tottenham’s Harry Kane hasn’t scored in any of his last five Premier League appearances, with the striker last having a longer drought in the competition in his first six games of the 2015-16 campaign.
● Aston Villa’s Douglas Luiz has provided an assist in his last two Premier League appearances, already matching his total from both 2020-21 (2 in 33 games) and 2019-20 (2 in 36 games) this term.
● Aston Villa’s Danny Ings has scored six goals in his last six appearances against Tottenham in all competitions, including four in his last three against them. However, he’s been on the losing in four of the five games in which he’s scored against Spurs, including the last three in a row.
WEST HAM V BRENTFORD
2pm We have another very interesting market here as West Ham host Brentford. These three 2pm games are fascinating from a betting point of view, and I’m sure there will be some massive opinions on the prices on BETDAQ. This game is no different, with West Ham odds on to beat a solid Brentford side. I have to say I am in the lay camp on West Ham – I feel the 1.84 is a little short because Brentford have looked very good this season. They were one of the favourites to go down, but they have been so impressive I doubt they will even be in a relegation fight. West Ham were one of my favourite sides to back last season because they offered a lot of value, but this seems a good chance to lay them at the odds.
The performances against Crystal Palace and Southampton were poor from West Ham, and then they lost to Manchester United – however they corrected that in the League Cup and then beat Leeds last weekend. Leeds have given away so many chances this season however it’s hard to know what to make of that, and Brentford have impressed me this season. They actually created a bigger xG figure in their 3-3 draw to Liverpool last weekend, but in general they have been keeping games pretty tight – at least in the Premier League because they put seven put Oldham in the Cup! I’m happy to lay The Hammers here purely from a value point of view – I see this game as being way closer than odds of 1.84 suggest.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) West Ham to beat Brentford at 1.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWesbre
● This is the first league meeting between West Ham and Brentford since April 1993, with the Hammers winning 4-0 at Upton Park in a campaign that saw West Ham promoted and the Bees relegated from the second tier.
● This is the first ever top-flight meeting between West Ham and Brentford, with each of the previous 20 league games between the sides taking place in the second tier. Brentford’s last win against West Ham was in the 1953-54 season (though they’ve only since met in 1992-93 since then).
● West Ham have lost their last four games when facing an opponent in the top-flight for the first time, going down against Bournemouth in 2015-16, Hull in 2008-09, Reading in 2006-07 and Wigan in 2005-06.
● Brentford have lost just one of their last nine league London derbies (W5 D3), going down 2-1 at QPR in February. The Bees are the only side yet to lose a Premier League London derby, by virtue of the fact that they’ve played two of them in the competition so far (W1 D1).
● Only Manchester City (34) and Tottenham (28) have earned more points in home Premier League games in 2021 so far than West Ham (26). The Hammers did lose their last home league match against Man Utd, but have only lost back-to-back games at the London Stadium once since David Moyes’ return in January 2020.
● Brentford are unbeaten away from home in the Premier League so far (W1 D2) – only four teams have ever remained unbeaten in their first four on the road in the competition, with Blackburn, Coventry and Ipswich doing so in 1992-93, and Hull City in 2008-09 the other.
● Both West Ham and Brentford have made just three changes to their starting XIs in the Premier League this season, fewer than any other side so far.
● Brentford have had seven different players score for them in the Premier League so far this season – excluding own goals, only Chelsea (10) and Manchester City (9) have had more players find the net for them than the Bees.
● West Ham forward Michail Antonio has been involved in more goals than any other player in the Premier League so far this season (8), scoring five and assisting three goals in his five appearances so far. These eight goal involvements have been worth seven points to the Hammers so far, more than any other player across the league.
● Coming into this weekend’s games, Saïd Benrahma has created seven chances for Michail Antonio at West Ham this season, more than any player has created for another in the competition this term.
LIVERPOOL V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this weekend! I know Chelsea are second favourites in the Outright market for the Premier League, but I believe these two are the top two sides in the league. I know Liverpool will suffer if they get injuries during the season, but if they can all stay fit then they have the best XI in my opinion. City have had a stressful week having had to play away to Chelsea and PSG. They performed very well in a smooth away win to Chelsea, but then lost 2-0 to PSG. They wouldn’t have been unhappy with the performance however, and to be honest even though they lost a game, they are still playing some incredible football. Liverpool had an opposite week in the sense that they dropped points in the Premier League but then hammered Porto 5-1 in the Champions League.
This is a fascinating fixture. City stamped their class on Liverpool here last season with a 4-1 win, but Liverpool only really started believing they would win the title with a 3-1 win over City in 2019. That win for City last season was the only win in the last five Premier League games here, and that makes the 2.5 look a little short on City. I know both sides come into the game in top form and it’s fascinating to see who comes out on top, but for me Liverpool look the value at 3.05. I expect a very close game, and I would have the sides closer together in the betting. Liverpool have been creating so much in front of goal, it’s hard to see them not getting chances at some stage and the 2.5 on City is just too short. What a fixture to look forward to though, this will be an incredible game and Anfield will be rocking.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester City to beat Liverpool at 2.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivmci
● Liverpool haven’t lost consecutive league games against Manchester City since a run of four between 1935 and 1937, going down 4-1 the last time the sides met in February.
● Manchester City won this exact fixture 4-1 last season, ending a run of 17 away league games without a win at Liverpool (D5 L12). The Citizens haven’t won consecutive league games at Anfield since January 1953.
● Liverpool have won just one of their last seven Premier League games against reigning champions (D2 L4), beating Manchester City 3-1 at home in their own title winning campaign of 2019-20.
● Liverpool are the only side still unbeaten in the Premier League this season (W4 D2), while the Reds have also netted more goals than any other side this term (15). However, Man City have conceded the fewest goals so far in 2021-22 (1), keeping a clean sheet in each of their last five games.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in 16 league games (W12 D4), the longest current run without defeat in the top four tiers of English football. However, the Reds conceded more goals in their 3-3 draw at Brentford last time out than they had in their previous eight league games combined (2).
● Manchester City haven’t faced a shot on target in three of their six Premier League games so far this season (vs Norwich, Arsenal and Chelsea), the same number of games they didn’t face a single attempt on target in 38 league games last season.
● Man City boss Pep Guardiola has lost more games against Liverpool’s Jürgen Klopp in all competitions than he has against any opposing manager in his career (8). Meanwhile, of sides he’s faced at least 10 times in all competitions, Guardiola’s lowest win rate is against Liverpool (30.8% – W4 D4 L5).
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in six goals in his five appearances against Manchester City at Anfield in all competitions, scoring four and assisting two.
● Man City’s Raheem Sterling has scored in two of his last three Premier League games against Liverpool, having failed to find the net in his first eight against his former side. Sterling could become just the second player to score in consecutive Premier League games at Anfield having previously played for the Reds in the competition, after Nicolas Anelka in 2003 and 2004.
● Five of Diogo Jota’s 12 Premier League goals for Liverpool have been headers (42%) – it’s the highest ratio of headed goals of any non-defender for the Reds in the competition’s history (min. 10 goals scored).