SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games between MANCHESTER CITY v EVERTON and TOTTENHAM v LEEDS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
MANCHESTER CITY V EVERTON
2pm We had a bumper Saturday in the Premier League with eight fixture, so that just leaves two to be decided on Sunday afternoon. We have two intriguing games on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and a lot of questions as the sides return from the International Break. We kick the afternoon off with Manchester City hosting Everton. Manchester City have been playing some superb football this season, but they started the weekend three points behind Chelsea and perhaps it’s showing that they lack a star striker. One wonders will the Harry Kane story run when the January transfer window opens, but regardless of who City go for – they do need a striker. Could you imagine how many goals Ronaldo would be scoring if he went to City instead of United with the kind of service he’d be getting? The market is very confident on a comfortable City win here, with the home side trading as short as 1.22 at the time of writing. That price is a reflection of how far Everton have fallen in recent times, as they used to be a tricky side to beat.
Everton were one of the sides who would have welcomed the International Break. They had gone five games without a win, and although they had to play Manchester United and Spurs in that run, ironically they picked up two draws in those games while losing to West Ham, Watford and Wolves. For a side who like to keep things tight at the back, it was worrying to see Everton basically fall apart in the final 15 minutes against Watford, and then concede an xG of 2.24 away Wolves. If they give the same kind of chances to City, they will be hammered – although City must take their chances! I feel this will be a smooth win for City, but because they are priced so short in the match odds market that offers value in the side market. Everton will keep the score line respectable here – they will put XI behind the ball and in general don’t concede many. I was tempted by Everton on the handicap, but I feel the goals market is the value play here. Under 3.5 goals looks good value at 1.65 – that allows a 3-0 City win, but Everton can possibly keep City down to two goals in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 3.5 goals at 1.65 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMcieve
● Manchester City have won their last seven Premier League matches against Everton, scoring 21 times and conceding only five.
● Everton have only lost eight or more consecutive Premier League matches against an opponent once previously, losing nine in a row against Manchester United between December 1999 and February 2004.
● Among teams who have never won the Premier League title themselves, Everton have won more Premier League matches against the reigning champions than anyone else (14). They also won their last such match, winning 2-0 at rivals Liverpool in February last season.
● Manchester City have lost four Premier League home games in 2021, including a 2-0 loss last time out against Crystal Palace. This is just one fewer home league defeats than they suffered in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 combined (5), while they last lost more in a calendar year at the Etihad in 2010 (5).
● Everton are winless in their last five Premier League games (D2 L3), with the Toffees last having a longer run without a win in the competition in January 2018 under Sam Allardyce (6).
● Manchester City (221) have had more sequences of 10+ passes than any other side in the Premier League this season, while only Newcastle (175) have had more such sequences against them than Everton (156).
● Only Crystal Palace (2) and Aston Villa (3) have scored fewer first-half goals than Everton (4) in the Premier League this season, with 75% of the Toffees’ total goals coming after half-time (12/16). Meanwhile, no side has shipped fewer goals in the opening 45 minutes than Manchester City (1 – which came against Crystal Palace).
● Man City striker Gabriel Jesus has scored eight goals in eight Premier League appearances against Everton, more than he has against any other club, with the Brazilian averaging a goal every 69 minutes against the Toffees.
● Manchester City players dominate ball carrying so far in the Premier League this season, with the top four players for most carries all playing for the Citizens – Rúben Dias (243), João Cancelo (208), Bernardo Silva (207) and Jack Grealish (199). Meanwhile, Everton’s Demarai Gray has had the most shots following a carry this season (16).
● João Cancelo has been involved in seven goals in 17 games in all competitions for Manchester City this season (2 goals, 5 assists), just one fewer than he was in 43 appearances last term (3 goals, 5 assists).
TOTTENHAM V LEEDS
4.30pm This might be the most high quality prime TV slot on Sunday, but it’s such a fascinating game. Both sides haven’t been at their best this season, with Spurs already sacking their manager, while Leeds are far too good to go down you couldn’t say that they were out of the relegation fight given the way they have started the season. Both sides started the weekend in 14th and 15th on the xG table, with Leeds one place ahead of Spurs. I have to say, Spurs are very lucky to have started the weekend in the top half of the table as their performances have been much worse. For example, they were incredibly lucky to beat Manchester City on the opening weekend. Leeds put together three decent results before the International Break, and perhaps the International Break came at a really bad time for them. They just haven’t been creating the same volume of chances this season compared to last season, and then when you couple that with all their issues at the back – you’re bound to have problems. We really could see a crazy score line in this game given the way both of these sides have been defending, however Conte started with a 0-0 against Everton before the International Break and he will set them up well to be fair. I think he got a shock with the Europa League game after he just took over, and then made the Everton game very boring!
It will be very interesting to see what kind of tactics Conte goes with it – one would assume he’ll set Spurs up in a very solid way and just wait for the Leeds mistakes at the back to come. In my view that would be a shrewd play – Leeds have been very poor at the back since coming up to the Premier League. Obviously we have a lot of questions here about both sides heading into this game, and as always it comes down to the odds. I know Spurs will enjoy home advantage, and the fact that they have a world class manager should help them going forward, but they are much too short for me here at 1.79. I know Leeds have been very poor this season, but there were signs leading into the International Break that they were starting to create chances again. If they can get their attacking flare back, they won’t be under as much pressure at the back. Spurs are a very average side, and I can see this being a close game – I can’t have the home win this short.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Tottenham to beat Leeds at 1.79 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQTotlee
● This is the 100th meeting in all competitions between Spurs and Leeds, with the London side winning 37 to Leeds’ 33 of the first 99 games (D29).
● Leeds United have lost their last four away Premier League matches against Tottenham, last winning there in February 2001 with goals from Ian Harte and Lee Bowyer in a 2-1 win at White Hart Lane.
● Leeds, who were 2-1 winners at Fulham in March, are looking to record consecutive away league wins in London for the first time since April 2008, when they beat Leyton Orient and Millwall as a League One side under Gary McAllister.
● Only Norwich (5) have scored fewer Premier League goals than Tottenham this season (9). Spurs have failed to score in each of their last three league games, last going four without a goal in August/September 2006 under Martin Jol.
● Tottenham haven’t had a shot on target in either of their last two Premier League games, with their last such attempt coming in the 44th minute of their defeat at West Ham. Since Opta has detailed shot data (2003-04), no side has ever failed to have a shot on target in three consecutive Premier League games.
● Only four clubs (Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal, West Ham) scored at least three goals in more different Premier League games than Leeds last season (10). However, the Whites are one of just five sides yet to score more than twice in a Premier League game this term (along with Brighton, Newcastle, Norwich and Southampton).
● No team has scored more Premier League goals from outside the box than Leeds this season (5). Three of these have been scored by Raphinha, the most among players in the competition so far this term.
● This will be Antonio Conte’s first home league match in charge of Tottenham, and his first ever game against either Leeds or Marcelo Bielsa as a manager. Conte has registered at least one win against all 53 of the previous teams he’s faced in his top-flight managerial career in Serie A and the Premier League.
● Leeds forward Rodrigo Moreno has scored in two of his three appearances against Spurs in all competitions – he netted for Benfica in a 3-1 win in the UEFA Europa League at White Hart Lane in March 2014 and scored for Leeds in their 3-1 home win in May last season.
● Tottenham have benefitted from four own goals in all competitions this season, more than any other Premier League side. The only players at the club to score more than twice for Spurs so far this season are Harry Kane (7) and Son Heung-min (5).