PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. The action includes CHELSEA v SPURS at 4.30pm.
ARSENAL V BURNLEY
2pm It’s the last Super Sunday in the Premier League before we go on a little break and we have a cracking day ahead. We have everything on offer today on BETDAQ Betting Exchange – short priced favourites, open markets and blockbuster fixtures. All eyes will be on the London Derby later between Chelsea and Spurs, but we start the day with the shortest price of the day as Arsenal host Burnley. Arsenal crashed out of the Carabao Cup on Thursday night against Liverpool and we had to usual blowback from the fans asking is Arteta achieving anything. We are used to these remarks from Arsenal fans at this stage, but the reality is Arsenal are in the Top Four race for the first time in a while. I believe that they will fall short looking at games in hand etc, but they are achieving more this season than they have for a while. Arsenal fans will always feel they are a bigger club than they actually are, but the reality is they haven’t been a Top Four club since 2015/16 which is six seasons ago now. Remember all the “Wenger Out” banners too when they had Champions League football every year!
Despite that setback for Arsenal, they have actually been playing good football this season and they should be able to deal with Burnley. Arsenal just aren’t at a level at the moment to beat the top clubs – they played well against Manchester City here, probably the best they have played against them for a while, and they still lost late into the game. Even away to Manchester United when United weren’t playing well, they conceded three to lose 3-2. Their success this season has been dealing with the smaller sides, and Burnley now sit bottom of the table. Burnley will likely put XI men behind the ball here to dig in and try get a draw – they have only dropped to bottom because they have been unable to play a lot of fixtures, but at the same time they have been very poor this season. The atmosphere in the stadium might not be great with the fans moaning again, but this should be a straightforward win for Arsenal. I like the 2.11 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap and I believe that offers the best value here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Arsenal -1.5 goals to beat Burnley at 2.11 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQArsbur
● Arsenal have lost just one of their last 18 league games against Burnley (W12 D5), though it did come in this exact fixture last season (0-1 thanks to a Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang own goal).
● Burnley are looking to win consecutive away league games against Arsenal for just the third time, previously doing so in December 1950 and December 1960.
● Burnley haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 17 meetings with Arsenal in all competitions, since a 2-0 League Cup victory in December 2008. Only three teams have had longer runs without scoring more than one goal against the Gunners – Manchester City (25 between 1991 and 2008), Sheffield United (21, ongoing since 1992), and Wolves (20 between 1980 and 2018).
● Burnley have won five of their last nine Premier League games in London (D1 L3), having won just three of their first 30 visits to the capital in the competition (D4 L23).
● This is Arsenal’s first league game since their 2-1 home loss to Manchester City on New Year’s Day. The Gunners haven’t lost their first two league games to a calendar year since 2012, while they’ve not lost their first two home league games in a year since 1962.
● Burnley are winless in their last 11 Premier League away games, drawing four and losing seven. They’ve lost their last three on the road in the competition, last losing more consecutively between November 2016 and February 2017 (7).
● No side has conceded the first goal in fewer Premier League games than Arsenal this season (4). However, the Gunners are the only side to have lost 100% of their Premier League games when conceding first this term.
● Burnley’s last two away league games have ended in 3-1 defeats (vs Leeds and Manchester United) – they’ve not conceded 3+ goals in three consecutive away games since October 2016.
● Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has been directly involved in a goal in each of his last five Premier League games, scoring four and assisting two in these matches. If he registers a goal or assist in this match, he’d be the youngest to do so in six consecutive appearances in the competition’s history (20 years 140 days).
● Martin Ødegaard has been involved in six goals in his last seven Premier League appearances for Arsenal (3 goals, 3 assists), two more than he had in his first 25 games in the competition (2 goals, 2 assists).
CRYSTAL PALACE V LIVERPOOL
2pm We have a very interesting game from a betting point of view here as Crystal Palace host Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp is obviously without his stars due to the African Cup of Nations, but Liverpool came through the Carabao Cup Semi-Final tie against Arsenal on Thursday and they were also impressive against Brentford in the Premier League last weekend. It was obviously going to be a tough run for them without Salah and Mane, but they are getting on OK at the moment and this is another very winnable game. Palace picked up a draw last week against Brighton but they were very lucky to do so. The game finished 1-1 but Palace conceded an xG of 2.66. Prior to that, they conceded xG’s of 2.41 v West Ham and 2.53 v Spurs. They have played well against the likes of Millwall and Norwich, but Liverpool are obviously levels above them. Given they have conceded plenty of chances against solid teams recently, you’d have to feel Liverpool get a lot of chances here.
Manchester City are running away with the title and they have been superb this season, but the only table they don’t top is the chances created table which is topped by Liverpool. Perhaps that stat isn’t too relevant here without Salah and Mane, but given the amount of chances Palace have conceded lately I feel this game opens up nicely for Liverpool. They look good value at 1.59 and that is worth backing; however I’m going to take a chance on some bigger prices here. I feel Liverpool can run riot here given the level of chances conceded from Palace. Liverpool are trading 5.3 -2.5 goals and that is worth a small investment at the odds for me. I know it’s a lot more risky than just backing Liverpool to win, but I feel this game sets up well for them to bang in a few goals.
The Striker Says:
One point win Liverpool -2.5 goals to beat Crystal Palace at 5.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCryliv
● Crystal Palace have lost each of their last nine Premier League games against Liverpool, since a 2-1 win at Anfield in April 2017. Their last four defeats have been by an aggregate score of 16-0.
● Liverpool have won their last six Premier League away games against Crystal Palace, netting 19 goals in these meetings including a 7-0 victory in this exact fixture last season.
● Liverpool haven’t won any of their last four Premier League games in London (D3 L1), with the Reds last having a longer winless league run in the capital between November 2014 and October 2015 (5).
● Crystal Palace have won two of their last three Premier League games against sides starting the day in the top three of the table (L1), beating Spurs 3-0 and Man City 2-0 this season. The Eagles had won just one of their previous 24 such games in the competition (D6 L17).
● Crystal Palace are yet to lose consecutive Premier League home games under Patrick Vieira, last doing so in May of last season under Roy Hodgson (against Chelsea and Manchester City).
● After keeping a clean sheet in four of their first five Premier League away games this season, Liverpool have conceded at least once in five of their last six on the road, shipping nine goals in total in this run.
● Starting with a brace in this exact fixture last season, each of Roberto Firmino’s last 10 Premier League goals for Liverpool have all come away from home. In the competition’s history, only three players have had a longer run of goals without any coming at home – Ryan Giggs (13 between 2001 and 2003), Harry Kane (13 between May-September 2017) and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (11 between January-April 2002).
● Conor Gallagher has been directly involved in 10 Premier League goals in 18 appearances for Crystal Palace this season (7 goals, 3 assists), reaching 10 goals/assists in the second-fewest games of any Eagles player in Premier League history, behind only Andrew Johnson in 2004-05 (17 appearances).
● Since the start of the 2018-19 season, Liverpool defender Trent Alexander-Arnold has 42 Premier League assists, six more than any other player (team-mate Andrew Robertson, 36). He has 10 assists this season and is one of only 12 players to have assisted 10+ goals in as many as three different Premier League seasons, having set up 12 goals in 2018-19 and 13 in 2019-20 previously.
● Takumi Minamino has scored two goals in his last five Premier League appearances for Liverpool, having netted just one in his first 21 for the Reds. His last two goals have been from the bench, with his only league goal as a starter for Liverpool coming in their 7-0 win at Crystal Palace last season.
LEICESTER V BRIGHTON
2pm We finish the 2pm games with Leicester hosting Brighton in what should be a very entertaining game! Leicester were involved in a remarkable game with Spurs midweek – conceding two goals to lose from 2-1 up in the 94th minute. How they actually conceded the winning goal is beyond me, just total carelessness to be honest after the kick off. Brighton have also been in the goals recently – both teams have scored in their last five games in all competitions. Brighton have been the late comeback kings this season too, scoring very late into games to get something – they obviously have a great team spirit at the moment. This is the most open market of the day and it’s easy to understand why as both teams have a very similar profile this season. Leicester fans won’t be happy with that, but they have been very poor this season. They have gone from challenging for Champions League football to a mid-table side and when they were at their worse the media was focused on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer otherwise Brendan Rodgers would have been under pressure.
I have to say over 2.5 goals is a stand out bet here. I was very surprised to see it trading as big at 1.95 when I clicked into the market. I feel both these sides set up perfectly for goals, and they both like playing an open game too. Leicester have been involved in plenty of high scoring games this season, and Brighton aren’t a side to come here and sit back – especially when they see what other sides have achieved against Leicester this season. Brighton have been keeping their games a little tighter than Leicester, but they have also been scoring and conceding which is a good sign – like I said we saw both teams score in their last five games. Leicester conceded a remarkable xG of 4.68 against Spurs midweek – I haven’t seen a bigger xG than that in a while in the Premier League and overs just looks a stand out bet here. The 1.95 is big enough to have a Max Bet on, and it’s a very confident one at that.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeibri
● Leicester have only lost three of their 17 home league games against Brighton (W11 D3), most recently a 4-1 loss in April 2014.
● Brighton’s 2-1 victory over Leicester at the Amex Stadium earlier this season was their first ever Premier League win against the Foxes (P9 D2 L6). They’re looking to do the league double against them for just the third time, previously doing so in 1980-81 and 2013-14.
● Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their Premier League games against Brighton (5/9) – among all sides they’ve faced more than twice in the competition, only against Wolves (78% – 7/9) and Sunderland (57% – 8/14) have they recorded a shutout in a higher share.
● Brighton have scored four goals in their two meetings with Leicester in all competitions this season, more than they’d scored against the Foxes in their previous nine meetings combined between 2017 and 2021 (3).
● Since a goalless draw with Wolves in February 2021, there have been 57 goals scored in Leicester’s 13 Premier League games played on Sundays (F30 A27) – an average of 4.4 per game. Indeed, each of their five such home games in that run have seen at least four goals scored each time.
● Brighton have lost just one of their 10 Premier League away games so far this season (W3 D6) – no side has lost fewer on the road than the Seagulls so far this term.
● Brighton have won all three of their Premier League games played on a Sunday so far this season, including a 2-1 win against Leicester in September. The last time the Seagulls won four consecutive Sunday games in the league was between December 2008 and March 2013, split between League One and the Championship.
● Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has lost four of his last six Premier League games against sides with an English manager (W1 D1), as many as he had in his previous 38 such games in the competition (W28 D6).
● Only Son Heung-min (7) and Mohamed Salah (6) have scored more Premier League goals on Sundays this season than Leicester’s James Maddison (4).
● Brighton’s Danny Welbeck has scored three goals in his eight Premier League appearances against Leicester, including in the Seagulls’ victory in the reverse fixture this term. All three of the goals have been in one-goal victories (with two of them being the winning goal of the game), but all three have also come in home matches.
CHELSEA V TOTTENHAM
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best until last this weekend as we finish the weekend with a London Derby! Chelsea host Spurs as a quick follow up to their Carabao Cup Semi-Final where Chelsea managed to win both legs. They were more impressive with home advantage, and although they haven’t been at their best recently they did look the much better side against Spurs. Chelsea dropped more points this week having to settle for a 1-1 draw away to Brighton. A draw was a very fair result, but Brighton did finish the game with a marginally higher xG. Chelsea have dropped out of the title race rather quickly over the Christmas period, and Manchester City beating them recently put that question to bed fully. Spurs produced a remarkable comeback midweek against Leicester, scoring in the 95th and 97th minute to win 3-2. While the comeback clearly took all the headlines, Spurs finished the game with an xG of 4.68! As I said above, I actually haven’t seen an xG that high in the Premier League this season. It’s obvious Spurs are playing well under Conte, but the losses to Chelsea in the Carabao Cup have to be a worry from a betting point of view.
Despite those two losses, I’m still prepared to have a small lay of Chelsea at 1.8. Spurs are playing too well at the moment to have Chelsea as short as 1.8 – especially when you consider Chelsea aren’t flying at the moment either. I know most of Chelsea’s major setbacks have come away from home, but I still expect a closer game than the odds suggest here. Spurs have consistently created an xG of over 2.0 under Conte, and given Chelsea have been struggling to score goals lately there’s a good chance Spurs can out score them here. I fully accept the Carabao Cup losses however, and that makes me reduce stakes a little here. Spurs were superb against Liverpool, but that game did come with home advantage and a relatively small lay of Chelsea looks the best call here. This should be an excellent game!
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Tottenham at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQChetot
● Chelsea have won five of their last six league games against Spurs (D1), keeping five clean sheets in the process.
● Tottenham have won just one of their last 31 away league games against Chelsea (D10 L20), winning 3-1 in April 2018 with current boss Antonio Conte in charge of the Blues that day.
● Tottenham have lost 13 of their 17 away games in all competitions against reigning European champions (W2 D2), with those victories coming at Nottingham Forest in November 1980 (3-0) and Liverpool in March 1985 (1-0).
● Chelsea have already won three games against Tottenham in all competitions this season, including twice this month in the EFL Cup semi-final. The last Premier League team to win four games against an opponent in a single campaign were Manchester City against West Ham in 2013-14, while the last to win three games in the same month against an opponent were Aston Villa against Blackburn in January 2010.
● Tottenham have failed to score in each of their last five meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, with their goalless run against the Blues currently standing at 457 minutes since Erik Lamela’s strike in September 2020. They’ve never gone six games without a goal against an opponent in their history.
● Chelsea have earned 498 points from their 271 Premier League London derby matches, and victory here would see them become the first side to reach 500 points in the history of the competition.
● Tottenham have won their last two Premier League London derbies, having lost five in a row before this. They last had a longer winning run in such games between February and November 2018 (7).
● Chelsea have drawn each of their last three Premier League home games – they’ve not gone four without a win at Stamford Bridge in the competition since a run of five under Guus Hiddink between March and May 2016.
● No manager to have previously taken charge of Chelsea in the Premier League has won against the Blues at Stamford Bridge in the competition (D7 L13). Spurs boss Antonio Conte will be the eighth different manager to try, with each of the last three losing on their first attempt (Mourinho, Benítez, Ancelotti).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored 39 goals in 65 Premier League London derby matches, second only to Thierry Henry (43) in the history of the competition. However, he’s netted just once in his last seven such league games, doing so against Crystal Palace on Boxing Day.