PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League action with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. What a day it is too. WATFORD v ARSENAL at 2pm and then the Manchester derby at 4.30pm.
WATFORD V ARSENAL
2pm We have a blockbuster Super Sunday in the Premier League this week! All eyes will be on the Manchester Derby later on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, but we start the day with an interesting fixture as Watford host Arsenal. Manchester United fans will be hoping that Watford can spring a surprise here and we all know that Arsenal are unreliable away from home. Arsenal come into this fixture in good form though and have recorded three very big wins together in the Top Four race. After Manchester United had to settle for a 0-0 last weekend against Watford, the Gunners are now in pole position for Champions League football. It would be the first time they have finished in the Top Four since the 2015/16 season. That was the season that Leicester lifted the title, which seems a lifetime ago now. Although Arsenal fans always believed they were a Top Four club, they did turn into a “mid table” side when Arsene Wenger left and it would be a massive achievement if they were to get back into the Champions League. Let’s not forget they didn’t even get Europa League football this season! Despite the draw at Old Trafford, Watford have been very average this season and they are there for the taking. The big question is, will Arsenal be good enough away from home?
Backing Arsenal always comes with a wealth warning in my opinion, and they are never a side that you want to have a Max Bet on. You have to pick and choose your spots as to when to back them. I believe this is one of the days when you should back them, and the 1.64 offers very good value. Watford were very lucky to pick up that draw against Manchester United last weekend. United bossed the game and created an xG of 2.93 – it was just unlucky they didn’t score and that’s the type of run United are going through at the moment. Arsenal have come through two massive wins against Wolves in a few weeks, and those two wins have had a big impact on their Top Four hopes. They had to dig deep in both games, but they have been playing good football too. They are creating good chances and given the amount of goals Watford have conceded this season, it’s hard to see Arsenal not getting a lot of chances here. I fully accept Arsenal aren’t reliable away from home, but Watford are bottom of the home form table with only seven points from 13 games. Arsenal can outclass this Watford side and the 1.64 is very much worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Arsenal to beat Watford at 1.64 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWatars
● Watford have earned just seven points from 45 available against Arsenal in the Premier League (W2 D1 L12), though four of these have come in their last three home games against them (W1 D1 L1).
● Arsenal have scored in all 15 of their Premier League games against Watford – only against West Brom (26/26) do the Gunners have a better 100% scoring rate in the competition.
● Arsenal have scored the first goal in 14 of their 15 Premier League meetings with Watford, with the exception being a 2-1 defeat at the Emirates Stadium in January 2017.
● Watford have won just three of their 20 Premier League games played in March (D3 L14), the second-lowest win rate in the month of any team to have spent more than three seasons in the competition (15%), ahead only of Ipswich Town (13%).
● Watford have kept three clean sheets in their six Premier League games under Roy Hodgson, as many as they had in their previous 38 in the competition under four different managers. However, at the other end the Hornets have only scored twice in their six games under Hodgson.
● Arsenal have won each of their last three Premier League away games, having won just two of their first eight on the road this season (D1 L5). The Gunners have opened the scoring in each of their last five Premier League away games, last having a longer such run between January and May 2015 (7).
● Since losing consecutive league games against Manchester United and Everton at the start of December, Arsenal have taken 22 points from 27 available to them in the Premier League (W7 D1 L1). Their only dropped points in that run have come in home games (1-2 vs Man City, 0-0 vs Burnley).
● Watford manager Roy Hodgson has won just one of his 12 Premier League home games against Arsenal (D4 L7), winning 1-0 with Fulham in August 2008. His final home match in charge of Crystal Palace ended in a 3-1 defeat to the Gunners in May last season.
● No player has scored in more Premier League defeats this season than Watford’s Emmanuel Dennis, with the Hornets losing four times when he’s found the net. However, the Nigerian has also scored in all five of Watford’s league wins so far this term.
● Emile Smith Rowe is Arsenal’s top scorer in the Premier League this season with nine goals. He could become just the second player aged 21 or under to reach double figures in a Premier League season for the Gunners along with Nicolas Anelka in 1998-99.
MANCHESTER CITY V MANCHESTER UNITED
4.30pm What a massive Manchester Derby! This is a huge game for both sides and you have to say it comes at an ideal time. With City recently losing to Spurs, that has opened up the title race and put the blues under a little pressure from Liverpool. While for United they have a huge couple of weeks coming up that will decide their season. They have the Manchester Derby here, the Champions League Last 16 against Atletico Madrid where it’s 1-1 after the first leg next week and then they play Spurs and Liverpool before the International break. They could easily lose all four games and that would really leave the club in an unhappy place. It already looks likely that they will miss out on the Top Four this season, and they will have to pick up something from those three games and hope Arsenal slip up in their games in hand. In the cold light of day, United just haven’t been good enough this season. They were conceding too many goals under Solskjaer and they aren’t scoring enough under Rangnick. In my opinion with all the stories that have come out since Rangnick took over the players haven’t respected him enough and they haven’t fully bought in to his style of play. I think they could put in more effort, but it is their own future on the line here as they will miss Champions League football next season. We’re going to get a lot of stories from the UK media about Ronaldo wanting to leave etc, and it’s just going to be a car crash. The new manager they bring in during the summer will have a lot of work on his hands.
The Manchester Derby used to be a very close and tense affair, it still is with the atmosphere and the rivalry but the betting markets can only see one winner here. City are trading 1.44 at the time of writing. They have started at shorter prices, but United have had some success in the derby over the last few years. It seems almost typical United that they can up their level in the big games but come up short against the likes of Watford and Burnley. United have won the last three meetings here, but they didn’t lay a glove on City at Old Trafford when the sides met earlier in the season. I can see why a lot of punters would want to lay City here at the odds given the record of United, but I can see another tense and close affair here. The last six meetings between the sides have saw under 2.5 goals win, and I would expect a similar result here. I can see a cagey start to the game, and United aren’t scoring enough goals to trouble City at the moment. City can control the game and keep the ball for most of it, and I can see them grinding out a 1-0 or 2-0 win. Under 2.5 goals is trading 2.42 and that looks the stand out bet here. I know this game always promises goals, but it rarely delivers!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMcimun
● Manchester City are looking to complete the league double over Man Utd for just the second time under manager Pep Guardiola, having previously done so in 2018-19.
● Manchester United are looking to win four consecutive away games in all competitions against Man City for the first time since a run of four between November 1993 and November 2000.
● Premier League meetings between Manchester City and Manchester United have seen the away team win more often than in any other fixture in the competition’s history (21).
● Only against Chelsea (18) and Liverpool (17) have Manchester United lost more Premier League games than they have against Man City (16), despite the Citizens not playing in five different campaigns of the competition.
● 67% of Manchester City’s Premier League defeats this season have come in home games (2/3), including a 2-3 loss against Spurs last time out at the Etihad. Only once have they lost back-to-back home league games under Pep Guardiola, doing so against Leeds and Chelsea in April/May last season.
● Manchester United are unbeaten in eight Premier League games, the longest current run without defeat in the competition (W4 D4). They’ve opened the scoring in seven of these eight games, with the other finishing 0-0.
● In his managerial career, Man City boss Pep Guardiola has lost more home games against Manchester United in all competitions than he has versus any other opponent (4).
● Man City’s Riyad Mahrez has been involved in nine goals in his last eight Premier League appearances, scoring six and assisting three. However, against no side has the Algerian faced more in the competition without scoring than Manchester United (11).
● Man City’s Raheem Sterling is still yet to score in 18 Premier League appearances against Manchester United – there are six other opponents Sterling has failed to score against in the competition, facing them 16 times in total combined. Indeed, the last Englishman to score for Man City in this fixture was James Milner in April 2013.
● Since his Premier League debut in February 2020, Man Utd’s Bruno Fernandes has both scored and assisted a goal in more different games than any other player in the competition (11). The Portuguese has both scored and assisted a goal in 14% of his Premier League appearances (11/77), the highest ratio of any player to play at least 20 games in the competition.