PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games, both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. It’s WEST HAM v EVERTON at 2pm and TOTTENHAM v NEWCASTLE at 4.30pm.
WEST HAM V EVERTON
2pm It’s the first Super Sunday back in the Premier League after the International break and we have two fascinating markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Everton and Newcastle were two sides involved in the relegation battle but things are looking OK for both sides now, especially Newcastle, although I’m sure the home double will be a popular bet today! We start the day with West Ham host Everton ahead of a massive week for the club. They meet Lyon in the Europa League Quarter-Finals on Thursday and you could forgive them for taking their eye off the ball in the Premier League at the moment. They dropped down to 7th after losing to Spurs before the International break, but they should still be good for a European spot next season given Liverpool won the League Cup and it’s highly likely one of the top three will win the FA Cup too so there will be extra European spots this season. Everton crashed out of the FA Cup with a 4-0 loss to Crystal Palace, but they did record a massive win in their last Premier League game before the International break with a 1-0 win over Newcastle.
There was a lot of drama in that game, a fan tied himself to the goalposts and we added lots of added time, it must have been a huge buzz for the fans when the winner went in on the 99th minute. Moments like that is what football is all about. Frank Lampard broke his hand celebrating! It’s been a difficult season for Everton, but that win does put them in a reasonably strong position to stay up, especially with their games in hand. They aren’t out of the woods yet though and to be honest they are still a very limited side. Their defence has been terrible this season, and they haven’t been creating many chances either. Despite Everton being very limited this season, I don’t see this being a straightforward win for the Hammers. You can see by looking at their xG figures that they haven’t been playing their best football this season. They have been labouring, especially away from home, but they have won their last two home games and the performance against Sevilla was pretty good too granted they needed extra time for the winning goal. With Everton not creating many chances and then with West Ham lacking a spark up front I feel we could have a quiet game here – you also have to factor in West Ham having a European Quarter Final next week and if they have the lead going into the latter stages of the game I’m sure they will be happy to defend it. This game could be quite cagey, and under 2.5 goals looks the value at 1.97.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWeseve
● Following their 1-0 win at Goodison Park in October, West Ham are looking to complete their first league double over Everton since the 1972-73 campaign.
● Everton have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League away games against West Ham (W8 D4), going down 3-1 in May 2018. Indeed, the Toffees have won more Premier League away games against the Hammers than they have at any other side (12).
● West Ham have lost two of their last three Premier League games (W1), as many as they had in their previous nine. However, at home the Hammers are looking to secure three consecutive league wins for the first time in over a year (March 2021).
● Everton have won fewer away points than any other side in the Premier League this season (6). The Toffees are currently without a win in 11 away league games (D2 L9), their longest such run without a win since a run of 16 between February and December 2017.
● Everton are winless in nine Premier League games played on a Sunday, losing eight of those (D1). Away from home, the Toffees have won just four of their last 36 league games on Sundays (D6 L26), though all of those victories have been against London clubs (QPR, Tottenham, Fulham and West Ham).
● West Ham have scored 49 goals in their 30 Premier League games this season, their most at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1983-84 (also 49). The Hammers’ next goal will see them net 50+ goals in consecutive top-flight seasons for the first time since doing so in six straight campaigns between 1981-82 and 1986-87.
● Everton have lost their last five away games in all competitions, last losing six in a row in March 2018. They’ve lost their last two by 5-0 and 4-0 scorelines – they’ve never lost three consecutively on the road by 4+ goals before.
● West Ham have won a league-high 13 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season, also winning a league-high four games from behind this term. The Hammers’ haven’t won five Premier League games from behind in a single campaign since 2005-06.
● No side has scored either a lower total (8) or share (28% – 8/29) of their Premier League goals in the first half of games this season than Everton. Indeed, the Toffees haven’t scored in the opening 45 minutes in 11 of their last 13 Premier League games.
● Andriy Yarmolenko has scored two goals in his last three games for West Ham in all competitions, as many as he had in his previous 38 appearances. Eight of his last nine appearances for the Hammers have been as a substitute, with both of his recent goals coming from the bench.
TOTTENHAM V NEWCASTLE
4.30pm Spurs v Newcastle takes the big TV slot on Sunday afternoon and this should be a good game! Newcastle have had a brilliant 2022 and shot up the table away from the relegation zone, but their momentum was halted a little before the International break with two losses back-to-back against Chelsea and Everton. In fairness to Newcastle, the loss against Chelsea wasn’t too bad – you have to acknowledge the gulf in class between the sides. The loss against Everton must have hurt, it always will when you lose a game in the 99th minute but again they didn’t play too badly. They actually created an xG bigger than Everton. There is another gulf in class between the sides here just like Chelsea v Newcastle, but you wouldn’t class Spurs in the same league as Chelsea. The general feeling here in my opinion is Spurs should win, but can you trust them? That’s the golden question, and the decision is the price of 1.57 a back or lay. Spurs are always going to be an up-and-down club, even under Conte they have thrown in some terrible performances. Remember he even said in a press conference that he couldn’t fix their issues! That’s an classic example of what a club like Spurs does to you! Despite all the issues, they have been reasonably solid at home and they are still in the Top Four race.
That win over Manchester City obviously gave them a chance of Top Four again, and it also blew up the title race too. Arsenal play Crystal Palace tomorrow night so Spurs can put a little bit more pressure on Arsenal but Arsenal are three points ahead with a game in hand – it’s going to be very difficult to turn that around. While I expect Spurs to win here, I can’t make the argument that they should be shorter than 1.57 – I’m happy to look elsewhere. The goals market is pretty interesting here with over 2.5 goals odds on. Newcastle games have been pretty tight recently, and it’s hard to see them being too attacking here as they will be happy with a draw. Obviously Spurs games are always action packed, but I think Newcastle can keep this game tight. I’m also happy to limit stakes here as you can’t trust Spurs but under 2.5 goals looks a small bit of value to me at 2.1. In my opinion there’s very little value in the match odds market here so the goals market looks the best play.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQTotnew
● Tottenham have won just two of their last seven Premier League home games against Newcastle (D1 L4), and haven’t scored more than once in any of these seven meetings.
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2017, Newcastle have won just one of their nine league meetings with Tottenham (D2 L6), though that victory did come away from home in August 2019 (1-0).
● Tottenham have won four of their last five Premier League games (L1), having lost four of their five before that (W1). Spurs have scored at least twice in all five of these games, last doing so in more consecutive league matches between February and April 2017 (7).
● Following a nine-game unbeaten run in the Premier League, Newcastle have now lost their last two. Both of these defeats have been by a 1-0 scoreline, with the winning goals being scored in the 89th and 90th minute respectively.
● Newcastle haven’t conceded more than once in any of their last 11 Premier League games, shipping eight goals in that time. Only twice have they had a longer such run in the competition – 18 games between November 2003-March 2004, and 12 games between March and August 1997.
● Tottenham have benefitted from six own goals in the Premier League this season, at least three times as many as any other side. Only two teams have ever benefitted from more in a single campaign – Swansea City in 2013-14 (8) and Manchester United in 2009-10 (10).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has been directly involved in seven goals in his last four Premier League appearances against Newcastle, scoring five and assisting two. Overall, he’s scored seven times against the Magpies in the competition, though just one of these goals has come at home.
● Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has scored eight goals in his last eight Premier League games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Overall, he’s the highest scoring player in home games in the Premier League this season (10), with this the first campaign he’s ever reached double figures for home goals.
● Son Heung-min’s goals and assists have been worth 16 points to Tottenham in the Premier League this season, more valuable than any other player for their club so far this term.
● Harry Kane has provided 20 assists for Tottenham teammate Son Heung-min in the Premier League, accounting for over half of his 39 assists in total in the competition. Only Frank Lampard (24 for Didier Drogba) and David Silva (21 for Sergio Agüero) have ever assisted a teammate more in the competition.