PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games, all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. All eyes will be on the potential title decider at 4.30pm as MAN CITY take on LIVERPOOL.
BRENTFORD V WEST HAM
2pm We have a blockbuster Sunday afternoon in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! There’s no doubt that all the focus will be on Manchester City v Liverpool later on this afternoon, but we have three interesting markets kicking off at 2pm. It’s an intriguing day in the Premier League – we don’t have an odds on favourite today! We kick the action off with Brentford hosting West Ham in our first open market of the day, this is actually the most open betting heat of the day with the two sides very similar prices. West Ham were involved in the Europa League Quarter-Finals on Thursday night and after getting a man sent off just before half-time they would have been happy with a 1-1 draw. They have a tough task ahead in the second leg away from home, but the result on Thursday could have been much worse. Credit to The Hammers, they dug in and managed to get a result from a poor situation. Brentford shocked everyone with a 4-1 in over Chelsea last weekend, and they’ll be hoping to record back-to-back wins against London clubs here. They performed exceptionally well against Chelsea – a repeat performance would no doubt see them win here.
Brentford have been fantastic at times at home this season, but they haven’t got the results to show for it. They must be one of the most unluckiest sides around the major leagues in Europe when you look at their home performances compared to results. That win over Chelsea was justice for losing 1-0 here even though the game finished 2.16 to 0.31 on xG to Brentford. There’s been a lot of results like that here this season, and I feel it’s worth taking a chance on Brentford here at 2.76. They are “due” a slice of luck at home, but they don’t even need to be lucky – they just need to take their chances. When you look at the West Ham xG figures you can see that they haven’t been creating a lot lately – they are just struggling ever so slightly, and also you have to factor in that they will already be building towards that second leg in the Europa League. Coming off a class performance and scoring four over Chelsea, this is a good time to support Brentford in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brentford to beat West Ham at 2.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreWes
● Brentford are looking to complete their first league double over West Ham since 1953-54, though this is just the second campaign in which they’ve met since then.
● This will be West Ham’s first visit to Brentford since a 0-0 draw in December 1992, while their last away league win against the Bees was back in March 1953 (4-1).
● Brentford have won three of their last four Premier League matches (L1), as many as in their previous 20 games combined (D3 L14). They are looking to become the first side to win 10 matches in their first Premier League season since Bournemouth in 2015-16 (11 wins).
● West Ham have lost six of their last 10 away Premier League matches (W2 D2), as many as in their previous 27 on the road. The Hammers haven’t lost three in a row away from home since a run of seven between December 2019 and June 2020.
● Brentford have earned 11 points from Premier League London derbies so far this season (W3 D2 L3), with only Chelsea (18) earning more. The last London side to earn more in their first season in the competition was West Ham in 1993-94 (14).
● 10 of West Ham’s 15 Premier League wins this season have been by a single goal margin, with only Wolves (11) having more such victories this term.
● Jarrod Bowen has been directly involved in 17 goals in 29 Premier League appearances for West Ham United this season (9 goals, 8 assists). Bowen is looking to become the first Englishman to score 10 Premier League goals in a season for the Hammers since Kevin Nolan in 2012-13.
● Brentford have won all three Premier League matches that Christian Eriksen has started this season – for the Bees in those matches combined, he has completed the most passes (111), played the most passes into the box (26) and no player has created more chances than the Dane (5).
● West Ham’s Michail Antonio hasn’t scored in any of his last 11 Premier League games, since netting against Crystal Palace on New Year’s Day. It’s his longest run without a league goal since a run of 14 between March and November 2018.
● West Ham boss David Moyes has won nine of his last 12 Premier League matches against newly-promoted sides (D2 L1), although his one defeat came at home against Brentford earlier in the season. The only two promoted sides to complete a league double over Moyes in a season are West Brom (2010-11 vs Everton) and Middlesbrough (2016-17 vs Sunderland).
LEICESTER V CRYSTAL PALACE
2pm Leicester host Crystal Palace next in another fascinating betting heat. Leicester have been pretty average this season, and both sides are going start this game on the same number of points. Leicester do have two games in hand over Crystal Palace though but they can’t achieve anything this season. They started the season too slowly, and the best they can hope for is ninth which is still incredibly poor after the last two seasons they have had. Patrick Vieira has Crystal Palace flying at the moment – they have an FA Cup Semi-Final to look forward to next weekend but they produced a cracking performance to beat Arsenal 3-0 on Monday night. Leicester picked up a 1-1 draw away to Manchester United last weekend in a very even game, and unfortunately for them they were only able to draw 0-0 with PSV in the Europa Conference League on Thursday night. I still feel that Leicester have been a fantastic team to be against this season – they just haven’t been performing well and have given away far too many goals. They have conceded 47 goals this season which is the worst record of anyone within the thirteen coming into this weekend, and even the likes of Burnley have conceded fewer goals. The shocking thing about Leicester as well is their xG figures are actually worse – on average they have been giving away an xG of 2.0 per game. You don’t win many games when conceding two goals do you!
I wouldn’t be a huge fan of Crystal Palace, but you have to say this is an ideal time for them to have this fixture. They arrive into the game in great form and full of confidence too. That win over Everton in the FA Cup would have been a big boost for morale – even allowing for how poor Everton have been this season, and then to follow that up with the 3-0 win over Arsenal was very impressive. Their away record isn’t too bad this season and it certainly wouldn’t put me off backing them here at 3.05. I know we have a pretty open market with Leicester trading 2.54, but I would have the market even more open and I’d have the sides closer together in the betting. I fully accept that we should have a pretty close game here, but Leicester have been so sloppy at the back this season they are going to give Crystal Palace chances at some stage. A confident Palace side will take them.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Crystal Palace to beat Leicester at 3.05 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiCry
● Leicester are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games against Crystal Palace (W3 D2), having lost each of their previous four against the Eagles before this.
● Crystal Palace have lost their last two away league games against Leicester – they last lost more consecutively away against the Foxes between April 1922 and March 1925, in their first four such league visits.
● Leicester City have picked up 10 points in their last five Premier League games (W3 D1 L1), one more than in their previous 10 matches in the competition (W2 D3 L5).
● Crystal Palace have won their last two away league matches, beating Watford and Wolves, having won just one of their first 12 away games this season (D6 L5). The Eagles last won three in a row in April/May 2019 under Roy Hodgson.
● Crystal Palace have alternated between winning (3) and drawing (2) in their last five Premier League games, beating Arsenal 3-0 last time out. The Eagles have won consecutive league games just once this season, doing so against Man City and Wolves in October/November.
● Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four games in all competitions, with the Eagles last having a longer such run back in October/November 2011 (6 games).
● Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored more Premier League goals against Leicester than he has versus any other side in the competition (6).
● Kelechi Iheanacho has been directly involved in 18 goals in his last 20 Premier League starts for Leicester City (13 goals, 5 assists) and has netted four goals against Crystal Palace in the top-flight, his best tally against a single opponent.
● No Leicester player has been directly involved in more Premier League goals this season than James Maddison (12 – 8 goals, 4 assists), with his eight goals a joint-high return for him in a single top-flight campaign.
● Crystal Palace’s Jean-Philippe Mateta has scored three goals in his last four games in all competitions, as many as he had in his previous 20. The Frenchman is looking to score in three consecutive appearances for a top-flight club for the first time.
NORWICH V BURNLEY
2pm We finish the 2pm games with Norwich hosting Burnley in what is an absolute must win game for Burnley. They were involved in a massive relegation six pointer midweek against Everton and managed to record a huge 3-2 win after going into half-time 2-1 down. That meant there was only one point between the sides at the start of this weekend and it is Burnley that have the momentum now. They simply must follow that up with another win here against a Norwich side nailed to the bottom of the table. Norwich have had their moments this season, but it’s pretty clear that they have been the worst side in the Premier League. From that point of view, Burnley must win this game – anything else will be a disappointment especially after that big win midweek. Everton have a very tough fixture list on their run-in, while Burnley get to play Norwich here, Watford and Newcastle – they also play Aston Villa twice. Obviously a loss here would set them back massively, but on paper you’d have to lean towards Burnley staying up at the moment at least.
Norwich managed to end their losing run last weekend with a 0-0 draw against Brighton, but they still put in a very poor performance and were lucky with the result. They conceded an xG of 2.86, and that continues their poor run at the back – they have given away xG figures like 3.0, 1.93, 2.44 and 3.14 recently. I know Burnley are a very limited side, but you just know that Norwich are going to give them chances here. Obviously it’s a big question on whether or not Burnley take those chances, and indeed can they break down this Norwich side however I can’t have them trading as high as 2.62 given the level of play from Norwich this season. This is going to be a low quality game of football so I’m happy to keep stakes small, but Burnley must be buzzing after Wednesday night and Norwich are there for the taking.
The Striker Says:
One point win Burnley to beat Norwich at 2.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NorBur
● Norwich City have won just one of their last 12 league games against Burnley (D3 L8), and are winless in seven against the Clarets since a 2-0 home win in April 2008.
● Burnley have kept a clean sheet in all three of their Premier League games against Norwich, making the Canaries one of just two sides they’ve never conceded against in the competition, along with Middlesbrough.
● Since winning consecutive Premier League matches in January against Everton and Watford, Norwich City have picked up just two points in eight Premier League matches (D2 L6), the fewest of any team in that time.
● Burnley have had the fewest shots (116) and amassed the lowest expected goals total (10.7) in away Premier League matches this season, with only Norwich (32) having fewer shots on target on the road than the Clarets (35). They’ve only managed more than 10 shots in one away game (11 vs Everton), while Norwich have faced more than 10 shots in all but three of their home games.
● Norwich have lost at least 20 matches in each of their last four Premier League seasons (21 in 2013-14, 22 in 2015-16, 27 in 2019-20, 20 this season), having only lost 20 matches in three of their first 23 top-flight campaigns. They are only the fourth side to lose 20+ Premier League matches in four seasons in a row and first since Aston Villa (2013-14 – 2019-20).
● Burnley have failed to score in any of their last three Premier League matches against teams starting the day bottom of the table (D1 L2), losing their two away games in that run: 1-0 vs Sheffield United in May 2021 and 1-0 vs Newcastle United in December 2021.
● Dean Smith has lost 12 of his 19 Premier League matches as Norwich manager (W3 D4) and lost seven of his 11 matches in charge of Aston Villa earlier this season (W3 D1). He is the only manager in Premier League history to have lost more than 50% of his games at two different clubs within the same season.
● Norwich City are the only current Premier League side that Sean Dyche has faced as Burnley manager in the competition and not lost against (P3 W2 D1). The other four teams he hasn’t suffered defeat against are all current Championship sides: Hull City (P4 W2 D2), Huddersfield Town (P4 W1 D3), Middlesbrough (P2 W1 D1) and Cardiff City (P2 W2).
● Teemu Pukki has scored in and lost four home Premier League matches for Norwich City this season, a joint-record by a player in a single season, after Heidar Helguson in 1999-00 for Watford, Shane Long in 2011-12 for West Brom and Danny Ings in 2019-20 for Southampton.
● Among the 2,056 instances in Premier League history of a player appearing 50 times for a single club, the four players to have ended on the losing side in the highest percentage of games are all current Norwich City players: Kenny McLean (71%, P65 L46), Max Aarons (70%, P64 L45), Tim Krul (68%, P59 L40) and Teemu Pukki (68%, P65 L44).
MANCHESTER CITY V LIVERPOOL
4.30pm What a massive fixture. The excitement levels for this one will be through the roof! There’s no doubt that this was going to take the prime TV slot on Super Sunday, and although it’s not quite a title decider because we have a handful of games left, it’s an unbelievably massive game. Even if Manchester City didn’t drop points with that draw against Crystal Palace, it still would have been a huge game as Liverpool have a better goal difference than City – the one point difference between the sides just adds extra spice to the game though, and I can’t wait. Manchester City fans will be delighted to have home advantage for such a big game, but you have to say that both sides come into this game in top form. Both sides have been so impressive this season, you couldn’t actually argue with either winning the title. They have been superb going forward and solid at the back – just on pure stats alone Liverpool have been marginally better. They have created an average xG of 2.7 per Premier League game compared to 2.4 from Manchester City, but Manchester City have been better at the back with an xG conceded of just 0.7 while for Liverpool that average is one goal per game – however their actual is 0.7. In reality, there’s very little between the sides and it’s that old cliché of “the best team on the day will win” because there’s so little between them.
The question from a betting point of view here is who will set up better and deliver the best tactics on the day. We have two of the top managers in the world going up against each other after all. City are always going to be favourites as they have home advantage, but I wouldn’t have them trading as short at 2.14. There isn’t enough between the sides to justify those odds in my opinion, and although City might see a lot of the ball here with home advantage, Liverpool are absolutely superb on the counter attack. They have produced some top quality performances away in Europe this season and they have proven that they can deal with the pressure at the back too. You just know that we’re going to have a very close game here, and it’s going to need a bit of magic to decide the game but I’m happy to lay City at 2.14. I just see the game being closer than those odds suggest – Liverpool have been fantastic this season, and although City have been rock solid at the back I can see Liverpool finding the net at some stage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1-1 draw for example, but for me it’s the City lay. This really is a game to look forward to.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester City to beat Liverpool at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciLiv
● Manchester City have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League home games against Liverpool (W7 D4), going down 4-1 in Jürgen Klopp’s first visit to the Etihad in the competition in November 2015.
● Liverpool are winless in four Premier League games against Man City (D2 L2) – only once in the competition have they had a longer run without a win against them (5 between November 2011 and December 2013).
● Liverpool haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 Premier League away games against Man City, since a 0-0 draw in February 2010. They last had a longer run without an away top-flight clean sheet against an opponent against Blackburn, a run of 16 games between 1948 and 2004.
● Victory for Liverpool will see them finish a day top of the Premier League table for the first time since 1st October. Of the last eight Premier League meetings between the top two sides to take place within the final 10 games of the season, the team in second has won seven times (L1), including each of the last five in a row.
● This is the 50th ever Premier League match between the top two sides in the division, with the league leaders winning 20 and losing 18 (11 draws). It’s the third such match between Manchester City and Liverpool, following a goalless draw in October 2018 (Man City top), and the Citizens beating newly crowned champions Liverpool 4-0 in July 2020.
● Liverpool have won each of their last 10 Premier League games, keeping eight clean sheets in this run. It’s their fifth run of 10+ consecutive Premier League wins, with each of their previous four being ended by different sides (2-2 v Bolton 2006, 0-2 v Chelsea 2014, 1-1 v Man Utd 2019, 0-3 v Watford 2020).
● Man City manager Pep Guardiola has lost more matches in all competitions against Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp than versus any other manager (8), while Klopp has only lost as many matches against Felix Magath (8) in his managerial career as he has against Guardiola.
● Man City’s Phil Foden has scored in each of his last three Premier League games against Liverpool, and could become just the second player to score in four straight appearances against the Reds in the competition after Jamie Vardy (5 between 2016 and 2017).
● Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored in four of his last five Premier League games against Man City, including each of his last three in a row. The last player to score in four consecutive Premier League appearances against the Citizens was Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, who did so in five in a row between December 2000 and October 2003.
● Seven of Diogo Jota’s 23 Premier League goals for Liverpool have been headers (30%), with only Sami Hyypiä scoring a higher share for the Reds in the competition (77% – min. 20 goals). However, Man City have conceded just one headed goal in the Premier League this season.