PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s two Premier League games with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. It’s Newcastle v Leicester and West Ham v Burnley both at at 2.15pm.
NEWCASTLE V LEICESTER
2.15pm The FA Cup Semi-Final takes centre stage today at Wembley, but we still have two Premier League games to enjoy on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Both games kick off at the same time, and we do have two interesting markets. We start the day with Newcastle hosting Leicester, and I was surprised to see Newcastle trading as short as 2.26 here when I clicked into the market. I know Leicester have been very poor this season compared to the standards they set over the last two seasons, however I fully expect this game to be closer than odds of 2.26 suggest. Leicester made it to the Semi-Finals of the Europa Conference League on Thursday and that has been great for their confidence over the last few weeks. They would have been disappointed to be in that tournament, but the opposition has been weak and they have recorded some nice wins. Newcastle broke their losing run last weekend with a decent performance against Wolves and Leicester were probably a little lucky to beat Crystal Palace, but I still feel the market is wrong here.
The Leicester performances haven’t been impressive lately, but they have put together five games unbeaten in all competitions. They have indeed rode their luck a little, so I will reduce stakes on this one because I can see looking at the xG figures that they need to create more chances. However even allowing for that, Newcastle shouldn’t be as short as 2.26 here in my opinion. Newcastle are probably performing to the same level as Leicester at the moment – their xG figures are pretty average – you can see figures like 1.62, 0.66, 0.95, 0.34 and 1.06. Very similar to Leicester to be honest, and when I look at this game I can only see a very close game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a draw here and while that could be a tempting play, it makes sense to lay Newcastle at the odds and have the Leicester win on our side too. Betting is all about getting the value, and Newcastle shouldn’t be this short in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Newcastle to beat Leicester at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewLei
● Newcastle have lost nine of their last 12 Premier League games against Leicester (W3). Their previous nine league defeats against the Foxes came across a period of 39 games (W19 D11) between 1979 and 2014.
● Leicester have won each of their last five Premier League away games against Newcastle. In their league history, only at Leyton Orient have they won more consecutively on the road (6 between 1925 and 1980).
● Newcastle have lost six of their seven Premier League games on Sundays this season (W1), conceding at least three goals in five of those defeats.
● Newcastle have won each of their last four Premier League home games, as many as they had in their previous 24 at St James’ Park (D11 L9). They last won five in a row at home in March 2019.
● Leicester have scored around four goals more than their xG total in the Premier League this season (45 goals, 40.7 xG) – only Chelsea have a bigger difference between goals scored and expected goals in the competition this term (64 goals, 56.1 xG).
● Leicester have won four of their last six league games (D1 L1), more than they had in their previous 14 (W3 D4 L7). However, away from home the Foxes have lost five of their last seven Premier League games (W1 D1), with their only victory coming at Burnley in that run.
● Excluding penalties, Newcastle have scored a higher share of Premier League goals from set pieces than any other side this season (38.2% – 13/34), while Leicester have conceded the highest share in the competition this term (33.3% – 16/48).
● Leicester’s James Maddison has been involved in five goals in six Premier League appearances against Newcastle (3 goals, 2 assists) – against no side has he been involved in more in the competition.
● Chris Wood scored Newcastle’s winner against Wolves last time out, and is looking to score in consecutive Premier League games for the first time since joining the Magpies. Wood has scored four Premier League goals against his former side Leicester, only netting more against West Ham (7) and Wolves (6).
● Leicester’s Ademola Lookman is enjoying his best Premier League goalscoring campaign this term, netting five goals for the Foxes. Indeed, he’s netted as many goals in his last 13 Premier League games as he had in his first 77 appearances in the competition (5).
WEST HAM V BURNLEY
2.15pm West Ham host Burnley next and we’re at the stage of the season where every game is massive for Burnley. I said that last weekend too, but they suffered a huge 2-0 loss against Norwich. I said before that fixture that game was basically a must win game for Burnley given the situation. They went into that game after recording a huge win against Everton, and then Everton managed to beat Manchester United before Burnley lost to Norwich. What a huge setback that was, but all is not lost. Burnley are now heavy favourites to go down, prior to last weekend Everton were margin favourites given their fixture list but now it’s looking like Burnley will take that 18th spot. Everton aren’t in action this weekend, so this is a nice chance for Burnley to close the gap but the issue is are they good enough to beat this West Ham side? West Ham haven’t been playing superb football recently – their loss to Brentford last weekend highlights that – however they recorded a huge win midweek in the Europa League. Getting to the Europa League Semi-Finals is a huge result for the club, and their fans have a very exciting finish to the season ahead!
When I look at everything heading into this fixture, I can’t see past the West Ham win here at 1.75. Burnley have been bang average this season, and they have been poor away from home too. They have only managed nine points from their 15 away games in the Premier League this season – their record isn’t much better at home, but they definitely haven’t created as much going forward away from home. I do worry about the recent West Ham xG figures going forward – they are clearly struggling a little and haven’t been at their best for a while. I’m hoping the win midweek in the Europa League will give them a major boost in that sense, but I’m also happy to limit stakes today to a reasonably level. The 1.75 is a good value bet, but it’s also a bet to not go mad about with the stakes given West Ham aren’t performing at a top level. Burnley are still there for the taking however, and I’d expect The Hammers to grind out a win here. Another loss for Burnley would likely put another huge dent in their chances of staying up.
The Striker Says:
Two points win West Ham to beat Burnley at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesBur
● West Ham have failed to score in five of their last eight Premier League games against Burnley (W3 D1 L4), having found the net in each of their first seven against the Clarets (W5 D1 L1).
● Burnley have won two of their last four Premier League away games against West Ham, as many as they had in their previous 21 league visits to Upton Park/London Stadium (D4 L15).
● West Ham have earned 25 points from their last 27 available in home games against sides in the relegation zone (W8 D1 L0), winning each of the last six in a row. Their last such defeat was against Newcastle in December 2017.
● West Ham have scored in each of their last 17 Premier League home games, with the Hammers last having a longer such run in the top-flight between October 1985 and January 1987 (27 games).
● Burnley have conceded at least twice in each of their last six Premier League matches (14 goals conceded), last having a longer run of conceding 2+ goals in the top-flight from October to December 1960 (10 in a row).
● West Ham have scored 51 goals from 135 shots on target in the Premier League this season (37.8%), with only Chelsea (38.1%) converting a higher share of their attempts on target so far this term.
● Only four teams have played more passes into the box (including crosses) than Burnley in the Premier League this season (921). However, the Clarets have had fewer touches in the opposition box than any other side so far this term (515).
● Michail Antonio has scored each of West Ham’s last three Premier League goals against Burnley. However, the Jamaican hasn’t scored in any of his last 12 Premier League appearances, his longest drought since a 14-game run between March and November 2018.
● Jarrod Bowen has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other West Ham player this season (17), and is the Hammers’ leading scorer (9) and assister (8) this term. Only four players have ever been involved in more goals in a single Premier League campaign for West Ham – John Hartson in 1997-98 (23), Paolo Di Canio in 1999-00 (29), Marlon Harewood in 2005-06 (18) and Dimitri Payet in 2015-16 (21).
● Burnley’s Dwight McNeil has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season (36). It’s the joint-most shots a Burnley player has had in a single Premier League campaign without scoring, level with Lukas Jutkiewicz in 2014-15.