PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. Including the Merseyside Derby from Anfield at 4.30pm !
BRIGHTON V SOUTHAMPTON
2pm We have another very busy Sunday afternoon on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with four Premier League games. Liverpool v Everton will no doubt take the headlines today, but Liverpool are the shortest price of the day and we have three very interesting betting heats kicking off before that. We start the action with Brighton hosting Southampton. Both these sides were in action midweek, with both recording losses – Brighton wouldn’t have expected much from playing away to Manchester City but Southampton fans would have been disappointed with losing to Burnley. Conceding an xG of 2.77 to Burnley was a pretty poor performance at the back, and if they play like that again here they will lose comfortably. It must be hard to motivate the players at this stage of the season at a club like Southampton – but you have to focus on the fact that there really isn’t much between 9th and 14th – there’s actually only four points and there’s a huge difference there. A top ten finish for Southampton must be the aim, as it is for Brighton and that would be a great achievement for Brighton given where they were last season. I know they played better football than a relegation fight, but they were in one!
As I said on Thursday night in my Burnley v Southampton preview, you don’t want to be on Southampton away from home. They have been bang average and collected just 14 points from their 16 away games. That’s why we were on Burnley midweek, but before we jump onto Brighton here it’s definitely worth noting that Brighton also have less than one point per game when you look at their home form – just 15 points from 16 home games. They are actually in the bottom three on the home form table – perhaps that explains why the fans haven’t been happy at times this season. It has seemed silly to us when you look at the table, but obviously the home performances have been lacking. Although I was happy to take on Southampton midweek, we were getting better value on the Burnley price. Brighton look a little short here at 2.22 in my opinion, and I feel the best value play here is a small bet on the draw at 3.45. Although Southampton are conceding chances, they are creating enough to score and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1-1 here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.45 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriSou
● Brighton have won just one of their nine Premier League games against Southampton (D5 L3) and are yet to beat Saints at home in the competition (D1 L3).
● Southampton have won each of their last three Premier League away games against Brighton – they’ve never won four consecutive top-flight visits against an opponent in their history.
● The home side has never won in nine previous Premier League meetings between Brighton and Southampton (D5 L4) – only Bournemouth against Watford (10) has been played more often without the home side ever winning.
● Five of the 21 Premier League goals scored in meetings between Brighton and Southampton have been penalties (24%) – of all fixtures to have had at least 20 goals scored in the competition, this has seen the highest ratio from the penalty spot.
● 78% of the Premier League meetings between Brighton and Southampton have seen at least one goal scored in both halves (7/9). The two exceptions were both goalless at half-time, and both ended with Southampton winning away from home (1-0 in March 2019, 2-0 in August 2019).
● Having won two of their first three Premier League home games this season (L1), Brighton have won just one of their last 13 at the Amex Stadium (D6 L6). The Seagulls have won as many league games in London this season as they have at their own ground (3).
● Brighton have won 36% of their Premier League games played on Sunday (10/28), and are unbeaten in such games this season (W3 D1). Only on Fridays (50% – 3/6) do the Seagulls have a higher win rate on a specific day of the week.
● Southampton have won four of their last five Premier League away games played on Sunday (L1), as many as they had in their previous 30 such games (W4 D10 L16). Only on Fridays (38%) do Saints have a higher Premier League win rate than they do on Sundays (33%).
● Brighton have failed to score in each of their last five Premier League home games. Only two teams have had longer runs within a single season in the competition – Portsmouth (6 in 2007-08) and Manchester City (8 in 2006-07).
● Brighton have scored fewer home goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (10). Indeed, the Amex Stadium has seen fewer goals scored than any other ground in the competition this term (30 – F10 A20).
BURNLEY V WOLVES
2pm We have the most open market of the day here as Burnley host Wolves. This is another huge game for Burnley in their quest to stay up, and you’d have to say – controversial opinion – but at the moment sacking Dean Dyche seems to have been a good choice. It was definitely a panic button option, but if it keeps them in the Premier League then it would have been worth it. You never know what goes on in dressing rooms, I like to look at the performances levels when clubs sack managers and Burnley’s has definitely went up. They were impressive against Southampton and created a high xG figure. Look at Everton for example too, their performances never changed and that highlights the fact that the problem is with the squad rather than the manager. With Everton away to Liverpool later on, this is a huge chance for Burnley to pile the pressure on. We all knew that Everton had a difficult fixture list to finish the season, and as I said on Thursday night – two wins for Burnley over Southampton and Wolves would really spice things up. They have achieved the first, now it’s time for the second! They face a tough Wolves side here though, and their away form is much better than Southampton.
It’s easy to understand why we have an open market here – indeed all three results aren’t far away from the magical 3.0! Burnley bring some good momentum into the game and obviously they are fighting to stay up – the betting markets love these situations and the side who needs to win tends to be over bet in the market. Wolves in general have been superb away from home this season, they go up into the top five, but they are lacking in form recently. It’s been a while since they have played the way the fixture list has worked out, but they only created an xG 0.28 away to Newcastle in their last game. They were lucky to beat Aston Villa when you look at the xG figures, conceded an xG of 3.29 to Leeds and then only created an xG of 0.75 against Everton. They just haven’t been playing fluid football, and Burnley will see this has a superb chance to claim another three points. I’m not quite sure I want to be on Burnley though, and I can see a very close game here so I’m happy to back the draw again at odds of 3.15. I wouldn’t put anyone off a small bet on 0-0 as well in the Correct Score market.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.15 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BurWol
● After losing their first three Premier League meetings with Wolves, Burnley are now unbeaten in their last six against them (W3 D3).
● Wolves are winless in their last five away league games against Burnley (D2 L3) since a 2-1 win in March 2010. However, they’ve not lost consecutive league visits to Turf Moor since November 1963.
● Wolves have won just one of their last 11 league games against Burnley (D5 L5), a 1-0 home win in September 2018. Wolves have scored just six goals in these 11 meetings, and never more than once in a match.
● Burnley have won just one of their last 15 Premier League games on a Sunday (D4 L10), with that being a 4-0 victory at Wolves almost a year ago today (25th April 2021). At home, the Clarets are winless in seven Sunday league games (D4 L3) since a 2-1 win against Leicester in January 2020.
● Of the 26 teams to have played at least 50 Premier League games on Sundays, Burnley have the lowest win rate (16.4%), winning just 10 of their 61 such games (D14 L37).
● After drawing 0-0 in their final league game of 2021, none of Wolves’ 14 Premier League games in 2022 so far have ended level (W8 L6). Only Tottenham (15) are on a longer current run of Premier League games without a draw than Wolves.
● Wolves have lost three of their last four Premier League away games (W1), as many as they had in their first 12 on the road this season (W7 D2 L3).
● Five of Burnley’s last seven Premier League goals against Wolves have been scored by Chris Wood, who left the club for Newcastle in January. The only other player to score more than once for the Clarets against them in the competition is Ashley Barnes (2).
● 19 of the 28 goals Wolves have conceded in the Premier League this season have come after half-time (68%). They’ve conceded as many goals in the final 15 minutes of games as they have in the opening 45 so far this term (9).
● Wolves’ Jonny has scored two goals in his last three Premier League appearances, just one fewer than he’d netted in his first 79. However, just one of his five league goals for Wolves has come away from home.
CHELSEA V WEST HAM
2pm We finish the 2pm games with a London Derby as Chelsea host West Ham. Chelsea were involved in a six goal thriller that opened up the Top Four race again midweek. I was disappointed with the result and performance – I didn’t see them conceding four goals after their recent good performances. As I said in my preview of that game, they had a wobble in form but then were exceptional for their last three games going into that fixture. West Ham didn’t play midweek, and had to settle a 1-1 draw against Burnley in what was a much more open game than the score line suggested. When I look at this fixture and the market, I can’t help but feel that the 1.55 on Chelsea is much too short. The performance against Arsenal does worry me though, so perhaps it’s wise to look towards the goals market for some value. This game does scream overs – West Ham have been involved in some very open games recently and Chelsea aren’t going to sit back either! Usually London Derbies are tense affairs, but we should get an open game here.
The main reason why I prefer over 2.5 goals at 1.82 to the Chelsea lay at 1.55 is West Ham haven’t been in superb form lately. I know they have taken a lot of headlines with their run to the Europa League Semi-Final but the Lyon game was a lot closer than 3-0 suggests – they conceded an xG of 1.84. Full credit to them for winning though – but then they conceded an xG of 1.97 to Burnley and they were bang average against Brentford too. They just haven’t been firing lately, and they are giving away a host of chances. If they give away those chances to Chelsea, there’s no doubt we’re going to see goals here. Chelsea have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals lately too. While I feel Chelsea are a little short at 1.55, they aren’t short enough that I want to lay them – they will likely get the job done, but I can see them winning 2-1 or 3-2 in a dramatic game and overs stands out here. The 1.82 is a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheWes
● Chelsea have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League home games against West Ham (W10 D4), going down 1-0 in November 2019.
● West Ham have won three of their last five Premier League games against Chelsea (L2), including a 3-2 win at the London Stadium in the reverse fixture this season. The Hammers had only won three of their previous 26 league games against the Blues before this (D6 L17).
● Coming into this weekend’s games, only Tottenham (9) have won fewer points in Premier League London derbies this season than West Ham (10), with the Hammers losing three of their four such games on the road this term.
● Chelsea are unbeaten in their eight Premier League games played on Sunday this season (W5 D3), with their last such defeat coming on the final day last season (2-1 v Aston Villa).
● Chelsea have lost just one of their last 25 Premier League London derbies played on a Sunday (W18 D6), with that loss coming at home to Tottenham in April 2018.
● After winning consecutive away league games against Watford and Crystal Palace, West Ham are winless in their last five on the road (D1 L4). They’ve lost their last three in a row, their longest run since a run of seven between December 2019 and June 2020.
● Both teams have scored in 21 of West Ham’s 33 Premier League games this season – no side has had this happen more often in the competition so far this term.
● West Ham manager David Moyes has never won in 16 Premier League away games against Chelsea (D7 L9). There are just two occasions of a manager facing a side more on the road without ever winning, with Moyes also responsible for both of those (18 vs Arsenal, 17 vs Liverpool).
● Manuel Lanzini, Jarrod Bowen and Arthur Masuaku were on target for West Ham in their 3-2 win against Chelsea in the reverse fixture. Only two players have scored home and away Premier League goals against the Blues for the Hammers in a single season – Paolo Di Canio (2002-03) and Andy Carroll (2015-16).
● Michail Antonio has scored just one goal in his last 19 appearances for West Ham in all competitions, having netted nine times in his first 22 games this term. His current run of 13 Premier League games without a goal is his longest such run since a streak of 14 games between March and November 2018.
LIVERPOOL V EVERTON
4.30pm A Merseyside Derby like no other. What a cracking fixture to take the prime Sunday TV slot this week, and the game is going to have a huge impact on the title race as well as the relegation battle. Burnley play earlier in the day, and if they get a draw against Wolves and Liverpool hammer Everton here, then the goal difference swings in Burnley’s favour too. Everton are under immense pressure, but this was always going to happen given their tough run of fixtures to end the season – luckily one of those fixtures happened to be Manchester United who were in disarray. We’ve enjoyed a lot of battles in this Derby through the years, even Jurgen Klopp said he would miss the Merseyside Derby if Everton went down – perhaps he might like to see just a 1-0 win for Liverpool then to protect the goal difference! I doubt that though, as goal difference could come into things at the top of the table too – Liverpool are already in a good position there but this is a great chance to add to that. It’s a sign of the times that we have Liverpool trading as short as 1.21 to win here, and you can’t really argue with the market either. Liverpool have been exceptional this season, and they easily put Manchester United to the sword midweek.
It was nice to land a Max Bet on Liverpool to cover the handicap against Manchester United, and we’ll have to look towards the handicap markets again here with Liverpool so short in the match odds market. Everton have been terrible at the back this season, that has been where most of their problems have come from, and you really don’t want issues at the back when you play a side like Liverpool. Everton are conceding on average 1.7 goals per game in the Premier League this season – that is their xG too so they are that bad – and you don’t win many games conceding two goals per game. It looked like Liverpool could score in every attack against Manchester United on Tuesday, and I feel we’ll see the same again here. We landed a cracking bet on Liverpool -1.5 goals against Manchester United, and I like the same bet here. This time it’s 1.6 so it won’t be a Max Bet, but it’s a confident bet nonetheless. What can you say about Liverpool other than they have been exceptional this season – going forward they have been incredible, and they can take full advantage of Everton’s troubles at the back.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Everton at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivEve
● Liverpool have lost just one of their last 22 Premier League games against Everton (W9 D12), though it did come in this exact fixture last season.
● Everton won this exact fixture 2-0 last season, ending a 20-game winless away run against Liverpool in the Premier League (D9 L11). They’ve not won consecutive league visits to Anfield since February 1986.
● Liverpool are looking to complete the league double over Everton for just the second time in the past 10 seasons, previously doing so in this run in 2016-17.
● Everton’s 2-0 win against Liverpool at Anfield last season was the first time they’d kept a clean sheet in eight away league games against the Reds. They last kept consecutive away clean sheets against their local rivals in January 2004.
● No Premier League fixture has finished as a draw more often than Everton v Liverpool (24), while the Merseyside derby has seen the most red cards (22) and most 90th minute winners (5) in the competition’s history.
● After winning 14 consecutive home league games on Sundays between November 2018 and December 2020, Liverpool have won just two of their last seven at Anfield on this day (D3 L2).
● Everton have won fewer away points than any other side in the Premier League this season, while Liverpool have won the most home points so far this term. Five of Everton’s six points on the road this term came in their opening four away games (W1 D2 L1).
● Everton have lost 10 of their last 11 Premier League away games (D1), including each of the last six in a row. It’s their longest run of consecutive away defeats since a run of eight between April and October 1994.
● Mohamed Salah scored twice in Liverpool’s 4-1 win against Everton in the reverse fixture this season. The last Liverpool player to score 2+ goals in both league meetings with the Toffees in a single campaign was Dick Forshaw in 1925-26 (3 at home, 2 away).
● Liverpool’s Divock Origi has scored more Premier League goals against Everton than he has versus any other side (5). Three of his five league goals against the Toffees have proven to be the winning goal of the game.