PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games all with extended match stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. The action concludes with MAN CITY v NEWCASTLE at 4.30pm with City having the opportunity to pull three points clear.
ARSENAL V LEEDS
2pm The massive Premier League fixtures just keep coming and it’s another blockbuster Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have four games to enjoy today with questions to answer about the Top Four, the relegation battle and the title race. We have three games kicking off at 2pm, and we start with a huge game as Arsenal host Leeds. After Burnley and Everton managed wins last weekend while Leeds had to play Man City they have been thrown back into the relegation battle in a big way. After five games unbeaten and gaining so much momentum, Leeds fan can probably barely believe they find themselves under pressure in the relegation battle – I suppose who could have expected Everton to beat Manchester United and Chelsea! While Everton still have to play Arsenal on the final day, the fixture list that Leeds have is probably the toughest now. Arsenal are playing great at the moment, and then Leeds have to play Chelsea next week which you would imagine they’ll struggle to get something from too. That’s going to put huge pressure on their final two games against Brighton and Brentford – two sides that play good football and two managers that might be able to pick apart Leeds too. Leeds will be hoping that other results go their way but on paper Leeds are favourites to go down now.
Although favourites to go down, they still have things in our their own hands. They might have the more difficult fixture list but Everton had an extremely tough fixture list and managed some wins. Leeds need a performance of their lives here, and while Arsenal are playing some great football at the moment Leeds will believe if they can attack Arsenal they can get a result here. The really good sign from an Arsenal point of view is that they are grinding out wins when they aren’t playing well – West Ham away was a classic example of this last weekend. That is something that Arsenal haven’t done for years, and it’s a very good sign. I feel Arsenal will come out on top here, but the 1.47 is a very fair price – I’m not going to make the case that they should be shorter than 1.4 because that would be a terribly short price. Leeds have been playing well recently – they created xG figures of 3.0, 3.29 and 1.66 in their last six games and you can always forget losing to Man City. I feel this game screams goals in what should be a very end-to-end and open affair – this Leeds side is no good at sitting back, attack is their best form of defence. That’s what they went with against City and although they paid the price, their fans clapped them off the pitch because they know a similar performance would beat better sides. They can get on the score sheet here at some stage, and over 2.5 goals is worth backing at 1.6. This should be an entertaining game!
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsLee
● Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Leeds in all competitions (W9 D2) since a 3-2 home defeat in May 2003.
● Leeds haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 12 away league games against Arsenal (W3 D0 L9), since a goalless draw in February 1993.
● Arsenal have won their last three games against Leeds in all competitions, last beating them in four in a row between November 1936 and April 1938.
● Leeds have kept clean sheets in their last two away Premier League matches, after conceding in each of their eight on the road beforehand (shipping 27 goals). The Whites last kept three away Premier League clean sheets in a row back in December 1996 under George Graham.
● Leeds have never beaten Arsenal at the Emirates in all competitions in five attempts (D1 L4) – in their entire history, they’ve only played more games at Brighton’s AMEX Stadium (eight) without winning.
● Heading into the weekend’s games, only top two sides Manchester City (26) and Liverpool (20) have won more Premier League games than Arsenal this season (20), with the Gunners currently on their fifth run of 3+ consecutive victories this term. However, only Watford and West Ham (8 each) are on a longer current run of games without a clean sheet than Arsenal (6).
● Leeds are unbeaten in their last three Premier League away games (W2 D1), last having a longer such run in December 2001 (4). Meanwhile, the Whites are looking to keep three consecutive away clean sheets in the top-flight for the first time since December 1996.
● Leeds have received 94 yellow cards in the Premier League this season, the joint-most by a team in a single season along with Sunderland in 2014-15. Defender Junior Firpo received his 10th booking in his 20th appearance against Man City last time out, the sixth-fastest a player has been booked 10 times in Premier League history.
● Arsenal have had 24 goals scored by English players in the Premier League this season (excluding own goals), as many as they had in their previous four campaigns combined. The Gunners last had more goals scored by English players in 1996-97 (45).
● Leeds United’s Raphinha has scored the opening goal in more different Premier League games than any other player this season, with the Brazilian doing so on seven of the 15 occasions Leeds have scored first.
LEICESTER V EVERTON
2pm We have another huge game at the bottom of the table as Leicester host Everton. It hasn’t been a good week for Leicester as they crashed out of the Europa Conference League Semi-Final on Thursday against Roma and they are obviously really struggling in the Premier League. Surely going out of the Europe will hurt and it was the last thing Leicester had to play for this season – from that point of view this could be a really good time to take on Leicester, and I’m sure Everton will be eyeing this has a fantastic chance to really put the pressure on Leeds. That win last weekend over Chelsea was totally unexpected but has given them a huge boost in their fight to stay up. They have a game in hand over Burnley and Leeds, and they have basically got through their difficult fixture list now. They play Arsenal on the final day of the season but by then the Top Four race could be over and Arsenal might have nothing to play for. The way the fixtures have fallen given the backlog with the Covid19 outbreak around Christmas this is the second time these sides meet within a month. We saw a 1-1 draw towards the end of April but Everton were definitely the better side.
The dynamic might switch here with Leicester having home advantage now, but Everton created an xG of over double what Leicester managed and were a little unlucky with the draw. It was one of Everton’s better performances We all know that Leicester haven’t been at their best this season and they have been very poor at the back – but Everton are really struggling up front. Everton have been so average this season all over the park though; their main issues have come at the back – they have been terrible at times. But their xG figures going forward have also been very poor – they are only created an average xG of a little over one per game this season. I think when you put everything together you get a very close game here – Leicester are the marginal favourites which is only fair given that they have home advantage but I do feel they will struggle after the Roma game midweek. I don’t believe Everton are good enough to take full advantage though, and the draw looks the value call here at 3.4.
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiEve
● 48% of the Premier League meetings between Leicester and Everton have been drawn (15/31), the highest percentage of any of the 92 fixtures to have been played at least 30 times.
● Everton are looking to win consecutive away league games against Leicester for the first time since December 1997, following their 2-0 win in this exact fixture last term.
● Leicester have alternated between victory (3) and defeat (3) in their last six Premier League home games against Everton – their five previous home games against them had all finished level.
● Leicester are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though at home the Foxes are unbeaten in six (W3 D3). They’ve won eight of their last nine games against sides starting the day in the bottom three (D1) since a 2-1 home loss to Fulham in November 2020.
● Everton have won fewer points away from home than any other side in the Premier League this season (6), with no side losing more on the road than the Toffees (12). Everton have lost their last seven away league games, their longest run since a run of eight between April and October 1994.
● Everton have won two of their last four Premier League games (D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 14 (D1 L11). However, each of their last seven Premier League wins has come at home, and each of the last four has been to nil, with the Toffees winless in 14 games in which they’ve conceded (D2 L12).
● Everton boss Frank Lampard hasn’t won any of his four Premier League games against Leicester (D3 L1) – the only side has he faced as often as a manager without ever winning in the competition is Liverpool (also 4).
● Everton striker Richarlison has scored in five of his last seven Premier League games against Leicester. Against no other side has the Brazilian netted more Premier League goals than he has against the Foxes (5).
● All four of Leicester striker Kelechi Iheanacho’s Premier League goals this season have come away from home, with only Roberto Firmino (5) netting more goals this term without scoring at home.
● Everton’s Richarlison has received nine yellow cards in the Premier League this season – the last Everton players to be booked more in a single campaign were Idrissa Gueye (11) and Gareth Barry (10) in 2016-17. Richarlison could also be the first Brazilian player to reach double figures for yellow cards in a single Premier League season.
NORWICH V WEST HAM
2pm We finish the 2pm games with Norwich hosting West Ham. It’s been a poor week for West Ham – nothing went right on Thursday night with a man sent off for West Ham early and then the goal a couple of minutes later. After losing the first leg it was always going to be a massive ask and with that opening 26 minutes it was too much to comeback. The Europa League run was fantastic, especially when you consider that The Hammers have been struggling in the Premier League for a while now. They had to play Arsenal and Chelsea in their last two Premier League games, but even before that you could see by looking at their xG figures that they were struggling. They haven’t been giving away a huge amount of chances, the issues have really been up front for West Ham because they just haven’t been creating chances. They have had a tough fixture list away from home too, but it’s been a while since they won away from home. The big question here is are Norwich good enough to get a result? I feel West Ham would be a decent lay if they were up against the average mid-table Premier League side this weekend, but Norwich have been a poor side this season and I’m not sure they are good enough to take advantage of a sub-par West Ham side.
West Ham aren’t a side I want to back at 1.84 given they aren’t playing great at the moment, and also exiting from the Europa League on Thursday night must hurt. Much like we made the right call to take on Crystal Palace after the FA Cup exit, I feel we’ll have a similar hangover for West Ham here. The problem from a betting point of view is that I don’t want to support Norwich – it just hasn’t been profitable to be with them this season. That effectively means I’m happy to sit out of the match odds market here – sometimes the best option is to avoid having an opinion and focus on another angle! With West Ham struggling to create chances recently and Norwich playing average football, I feel we’ll get a pretty average game of football here. Under 2.5 goals looks value at 2.06 – I’d personally have unders odds on and wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a 0-0 draw.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NorWes
● Norwich have lost their last three Premier League games against West Ham, scoring none and conceding eight goals. They had only lost three of their previous 17 league meetings with the Hammers (W6 D8).
● West Ham won 4-0 in their last away league game against Norwich, ending a 17-game winless run at Carrow Road (D8 L9).
● Since a 2-1 loss at Leicester in April 2015, West Ham are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League games against sides bottom of the table (W10 D4), winning each of the last seven in a row.
● This is the fourth time Norwich have been relegated before the final day of the Premier League season, also suffering this fate in 2019-20, 2015-16 and 1994-95. They’re winless in all five Premier League games they’ve played after suffering relegation within a campaign (D1 L4).
● West Ham are winless in four Premier League games (D1 L3), losing the last two. They’ve not lost three in a row since June 2020, while they last had a 5+ game winless run in January/February 2020 (7).
● Norwich have failed to score in a league-high 19 different Premier League games this season, and could become the first side to do so in 20+ in three separate campaigns (also 1994-95 and 2019-20).
● Norwich are looking to become the 23rd different team to register 100 Premier League wins. This will be their 389th game in the competition overall, with only West Bromwich Albion reaching the 100 in more games as it stands (396).
● West Ham’s Michail Antonio has scored five goals in his last five league games against Norwich, including all four in the Hammers’ 4-0 win on their last visit to Carrow Road. However, he’s without a goal in his last 14 Premier League appearances, his joint-longest drought in the top-flight.
● As Norwich keeper, Tim Krul has conceded 121 goals in 63 Premier League appearances (1.9 per game) – only Boaz Myhill at Hull City and Wayne Hennessey at Wolves (both 2) have a higher goals conceded per game average among keepers with at least 50 appearances for a specific club.
● Jarrod Bowen has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other West Ham player this season (10 goals, 8 assists). However, 12 of his 18 goal involvements have come at the London Stadium (8 goals, 4 assists).
MANCHESTER CITY V NEWCASTLE
4.30pm We finish the weekend with the shortest price of the Premier League games this weekend as Manchester City host Newcastle! City now have an unexpected opportunity to pull three points clear at the top of the table after Liverpool couldn’t claim all three points at Anfield on Saturday night. The market can only see a smooth win for City here as they trade as short as 1.18 at the time of writing. There’s no doubt that Pep Guardiola will switch the focus of his side to the Premier League title race now, but exiting the Champions League on Wednesday night has got to hurt. Especially in the manner that it happened too – it basically couldn’t have hurt more I feel! They had more than one foot in the final before it was all taken away within minutes. It seems to be a theme with Manchester City and crazy collapses in the Champions League – it goes to show, much like PSG, when the club has no major European history it’s still very hard to get over the line even with experienced players. Newcastle were always going to play a part in the title race given they played Liverpool and Man City back-to-back and although they lost 1-0 to Liverpool last weekend, they didn’t play that badly. The problem with trying to stop a side like Liverpool or Man City is that you basically create next to nothing yourself. That’s what happened to Newcastle – they finished the game with an xG of just 0.14. They’ll probably see even less of the ball here, and it’s hard to see them scoring.
Newcastle will be hoping that City have a hangover from exiting the Champions League, but it’s really hard to see anything bar a City win here. There’s just too much of a gulf in class between the sides, while Newcastle have been playing some good football lately they have consistently come up short against the top sides. The 5-1 loss to Spurs at the start of April is a classic example of this – it will be very interesting to see what Newcastle can do in the transfer window during the summer because obviously they have a lot of money to spend but for the moment I can see City completely controlling this game. They might not score as much as the market expects however, Newcastle defended well against Liverpool – of course they conceded a few chances and Liverpool should have scored more than once but you’re always going to be up against it when playing Liverpool or City. I do feel City can keep a clean sheet though, and Both Teams Not To Score looks good value at 1.66. City will control the game and control the ball too – Newcastle created so little against Liverpool and with the same tactics very likely, I can’t see them scoring here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MciNew
● Manchester City have lost just one of their last 28 league games against Newcastle (W23 D4), going down 2-1 at St James’ Park in January 2019.
● Newcastle have never won a Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium (D2 L14), losing each of their last 12 visits to the stadium. Their last away win against Manchester City was at Maine Road in September 2000, with Alan Shearer scoring the winner in a 1-0 victory.
● Manchester City have scored at least once in each of their last 26 Premier League games against Newcastle, the joint-longest run of one team scoring against another in the competition’s history (Arsenal v West Brom and Man Utd v Leicester also 26).
● Having failed to win four of their first 10 Premier League this season (D2 L2), Man City have only failed to get maximum points in a further four of their last 24 in the competition (D3 L1).
● Only Liverpool (41) and Manchester City (33) have won more Premier League points in 2022 than Newcastle (32). However, the Magpies have lost three of their last four away league games (W1).
● Newcastle have had 17 different players score a Premier League goal for them this season, with no side having more (excluding own goals). It’s the Magpies’ joint-most goalscorers they’ve had in a single Premier League campaign (level with 2019-20).
● Manchester City have scored 789 goals in 359 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium, the best goals-per-game ratio any side has at a specific home venue in the competition (2.2).
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has lost all 11 of his Premier League meetings with Manchester City, the worst 100% losing record a manager has against a single opponent in the competition. Nine of those defeats have come against Pep Guardiola – also the worst 100% losing record one manager has against another in the Premier League.
● Gabriel Jesus has been involved in 76 goals in 96 Premier League starts for Manchester City (53 goals, 23 assists) and has either scored or assisted in at least 58% of his starts (56). Among players to start at least 10 games, only Mohamed Salah (62%), Thierry Henry (61%) and Sergio Agüero (60%) have been involved in at least one goal in a higher percentage of their starts in the competition.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in 15 goals in his last 16 Premier League appearances (9 goals, 6 assists). Nine of his 11 Premier League goals in total this season have come at the Etihad Stadium (82%), the highest ratio of home goals for all players with 10+ goals in the Premier League this term.