PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League action with stats and recommended BETDAQ bets. Leicester v Brentford, Manchester United v Brighton and West Ham v Man City. Super Sunday is back !
LEICESTER V BRENTFORD
2pm We have the first Super Sunday of the new Premier League season to enjoy, and we also have three very interesting betting heats! Both Manchester clubs are in action, with obviously Manchester City the shortest price of the day playing later. We kick the action off on Betdaq Betting Exchange however with Leicester hosting Brentford. The jury is definitely out on Leicester this season, and they simply must improve on their finishing position of 8th last season. After two seasons losing out on Champions League football on the final day of the season, it was somewhat ironic that if they produced the same level they would have very likely taken that fourth position. Brendan Rodgers was unlucky with injuries, and the media went hunting for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer when Leicester were on a terrible run which helped. The question has to be asked though if they stay at the same level does Rodgers survive the season? It’s hard to see them breaking into the Top Six, never mind the Top Four to be honest, and we will have an interesting season ahead. It comes down to how trigger happy the owners are; and you have to wonder as well can they do better than Rodgers? Probably not in quality terms, but when a manager loses the dressing room there’s no coming back.
Brentford playing some beautiful attacking football last season, and I really hope to see them do the same again this season. They were a breath of fresh air in the Premier League last season, but I do feel things will be tougher for them this season without the brilliant Christian Eriksen. I suppose Brentford knew they wouldn’t keep a player of that talent; but they did give him his chance to get back to the big time after his cardiac arrest at the Euros. This should be an interesting game, and I can understand why Leicester aren’t odds on. When you look at the underlining numbers from Leicester’s season last time, they actually massively over-performed which has to be a worry heading into this season. They conceded an average xG of 1.9 per Premier League game, and conceding twice doesn’t win many games! I’m keen to keep stakes small here between these two sides – I want to see how Brentford perform without Eriksen early in the season, and then see have Leicester improved at the back. I do expect a reasonably close game however, enough to lay Leicester at 2.06 which looks very short for a side who just didn’t play good football last season.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Brentford at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiBre
● This is the first time that Leicester City will begin a league campaign against Brentford, with the Foxes unbeaten in their last six meetings against the Bees (W5 D1) since a 3-2 defeat at home in March 1953 in the second tier.
● Brentford lost both Premier League fixtures against Leicester City last season, both by a 2-1 scoreline. The Bees had previously never lost a top-flight game against the Foxes coming into the 2021-22 campaign (W2 D2).
● Leicester have won their opening Premier League match in their last two seasons, beating West Brom in 2020-21 and Wolves in 2021-22. They had only won their first league match in two of their first 14 Premier League seasons before this (D6 L6).
● Brentford have won their opening top-flight league match in four of their six seasons at this level (D1 L1), scoring two goals in every victory, including last season’s 2-0 win over Arsenal.
● Leicester remained unbeaten in their final four Premier League games of the 2021-22 season (W3 D1), with their 13 goals scored in this run as many as they’d netted in their previous 12 league games combined.
● After keeping a clean sheet in two of their first three Premier League away games, Brentford have conceded in each of their last 16 on the road. However, the Bees did win four of their last six away league games last term (L2), double the amount they had in their first 13 (W2 D4 L7).
● James Maddison has scored in all three of his starts for Leicester against Brentford, netting in both Premier League meetings last season, and in an FA Cup tie in January 2021. His two strikes against the Bees last term ended up being the winning goals of the game.
● Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won 63% of his MD1 games in charge in the Premier League (5/8) – of all managers to have taken charge of at least eight such games, only José Mourinho (82% – 9/11) has won a higher share than the Northern Irishman.
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored seven goals on the opening weekend of the Premier League season, with only Alan Shearer, Frank Lampard and Wayne Rooney (8 each) netting more. His seven goals accounts for 47% of Leicester’s total on MD1 since their return to the Premier League in 2014.
● Brentford’s Keane Lewis-Potter has scored in his side’s opening league game in each of the last two seasons, doing so for Hull at Gillingham in 2020-21, and at Preston in 2021-22.
MANCHESTER UNITED V BRIGHTON
2pm You just know this game is going to take all the headlines today! Erik ten Hag kicks off his first official game in charge, and he has a number of issues facing him. I have to say when I look at the videos of ten Hag and what he is saying, I have a huge amount of respect for him. However, I felt the same way about Ralf Rangnick and look what United did to him! The United board haven’t really helped ten Hag to start this journey – you can clearly see they still have massive issues in midfield and then we have the whole Ronaldo drama as well. It would be a great shame if United were to lose ten Hag – let’s not forget this squad has thrown plenty of managers under the bus now, and I feel it’s about time that changes. I think United simply have to stick with ten Hag – they aren’t going to get anyone better anyway – but they also do have difficult times ahead. From a morale point of view at Old Trafford; a positive start is a must. It will be very interesting to see what this United side can create going forward – they were so limited going forward under Rangnick last season, and also where Ronaldo fits into this side. It’s going to be exceptionally difficult for ten Hag to leave a player like Ronaldo out, especially when he scores goals, but is he a good fit for the team, and what does he do to morale as well? It’s going to be another very interesting season for United!
United have brought in some nice additions during the summer, but they still haven’t got a defensive midfielder that they need to protect the back four. They really need to find someone in that role, otherwise they will have massive issues. I know they lost Paul Pogba, but given his attitude issues I don’t think he will be a loss to the club – the fans certainly didn’t mind him leaving. They also need to find goals outside of Ronaldo – the record last season was almost a joke. It was Ronaldo scores or bust. You have to consider too that this squad basically downed tools under Rangnick, and obviously with a new manager effort will be high here. We should see an improved United performance, but I feel it will take a while to build the trust back in regards to backing them as prices like 1.6. They really struggled to create chances here last season, and Brighton will be aiming to put XI men behind the ball and get a result. I feel the best option here is Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 – it’s going to be a cagey start, and although there is excitement around the new manager, we still have more or less the same squad from United. Unders allows for them to grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win too, but I can see a low scoring un-entertaining game here.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunBri
● Manchester United will be opening a top-flight season against Brighton and Hove Albion for the first time in their history, while this is just their second league clash in the month of August after a 3-2 defeat at the Amex in 2018.
● Brighton and Hove Albion have lost six of their last seven Premier League games against Man Utd but did win last time out in May 2022 (4-0) – only versus Man City (9) have the Seagulls lost more Premier League contests than versus Man Utd (7).
● Brighton have never won away against Manchester United in all competitions (D2 L12), losing each of their last eight visits to Old Trafford to face the Red Devils.
● Manchester United have won their opening Premier League match in 10 of the last 13 seasons (L3), winning 5-1 against Leeds United last season. The Red Devils ended 2021-22 with a defeat – they’ve not lost their last game of one season, and first game of the next since 1973.
● None of Brighton’s opening Premier League matches in their five seasons in the competition have finished level (W2 L3), with their two wins coming against sides who would be relegated at the end of the season – a 3-0 win over Watford in 2019-20 and 2-1 win against Burnley last season.
● Manchester United have lost four of their last six Premier League games (W1 D1), more than they had in their previous 20 (W10 D7 L3). They lost their last two in 2021-22, last losing three consecutive league games in December 2015.
● After losing six consecutive league games in February/March, Brighton have lost just one of their last nine (W5 D3). Only Liverpool (23), Manchester City (23) and Tottenham (20) earned more Premier League points in April and May last season than the Seagulls (18).
● Erik ten Hag will be the eighth manager (including caretakers) to take charge of Manchester United in the nine years since Sir Alex Ferguson retired. Six of the previous seven in that time have won their first ever match in charge of the Red Devils, with Louis van Gaal the only exception (1-2 vs Swansea).
● Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes has been involved in six goals in his five Premier League appearances against Brighton (4 goals, 2 assists) – only against Leeds (8) has the Portuguese been involved in more.
● Brighton’s Pascal Groß has scored more Premier League goals against Manchester United than he has any other opponent (4). He’s scored in all three of Brighton’s Premier League victories against the Red Devils, netting the winning goal on two occasions.
WEST HAM V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm We finish our first Super Sunday back with West Ham hosting Manchester City. West Ham have made a tonne of improvement under David Moyes, so while Manchester City will no doubt be expected to win this game I don’t see it being easy. The 1.39 on City certainly doesn’t appeal as a bet you’d want to lump on; especially on the opening weekend. City lose the Community Shield to Liverpool last weekend but they were pretty unlucky – they created a lot of chances and Haaland should have scored too. Obviously Haaland was widely mocked online and that’s something he’s going to have to deal with while playing in England – many more misses like that and he’ll have the UK media on his back too. At the end of the day when you’re centre forward for Manchester City you’re going to be gifted chance after chance, and he’s going to miss some. I still think he’ll be a huge asset, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish the season as Golden Boot to be honest. West Ham managed to get a European spot last season finishing in 7th, and that will be their target again this season. They will likely challenge Manchester United and Arsenal for that sixth spot too in my opinion, and although they might come up a little short there doesn’t seem to be any club coming from behind to take 7th spot either. Leicester in 8th over-performed last season if you look at the xG figures, and maybe only Newcastle given their money now could make that kind of progress to challenge. I think a backwards step for the Hammers would be a massive upset considering how strong they have been over the last two seasons but they really shouldn’t be outside the top eight, and then depending on who wins the domestic Cups that 7th spot is ideal for Europe.
I feel we’ll see Manchester City play a very open game this season. They’ll take the approach of “we’ll just score more than you” and that should make for a very entertaining match here. West Ham have been excellent going forward over the last two season, and while City are so good going forward you couldn’t say that they don’t given away the odd chance at the back. Especially against the weaker teams – they tend to be more cagey against the top sides. I don’t think there’s much value in the match odds market here so I’m happy to look around the side markets for some value and I like Both Teams To Score at 1.92. West Ham finished last season with an average xG of 1.5 per game, which was the same as Manchester United for example, and they generally aren’t shy about attacking. I know City will have a lot of the ball here but I feel the Hammers can get on the score sheet at some stage in what should be a reasonably end-to-end and entertaining game to finish the first weekend! It’s great to have football back!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WhuMci
● West Ham United have faced Manchester City on three previous occasions in their opening top-flight game of the season, losing all three and failing to score a single goal (conceded 11).
● Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 13 Premier League meetings with West Ham (W10 D3), only versus Fulham (14) are they currently enjoying a longer unbeaten run against sides in the top-flight in 2022-23.
● Only Tottenham (38) have lost more Premier League games against reigning champions than West Ham (36). Meanwhile, of all sides to have played 20+ such games in the competition, only Aston Villa (7.4%) and West Bromwich Albion (7.7%) have a lower win rate than the Hammers (9.6% – won 5/52).
● After losing their first Premier League match in five consecutive seasons between 2016-17 and 2020-21, West Ham won 4-2 at Newcastle last season. They last started their league season with a win in back-to-back years in 2012-13 (1-0 vs Aston Villa) and 2013-14 (2-0 vs Cardiff).
● Manchester City lost 1-0 to Spurs in their opening league match of last season, meaning the reigning top-flight champions have lost their opening match in three of the last six seasons (W3), having gone unbeaten in 26 consecutive seasons between 1990-91 and 2015-16 before this run.
● West Ham have won just one of their last seven Premier League games (D2 L4), with that victory coming at already relegated Norwich in May (4-0). The Hammers are winless in their last nine Premier League games against reigning champions (D2 L7), since a 1-0 win against Chelsea in December 2017.
● Manchester City have lost just one of their last 28 Premier League games (W23 D4), and are unbeaten in their last 12 (W9 D3). The Citizens are also unbeaten in their last 18 away from home (W14 D4), with their only defeat on the road last season coming in London on the opening weekend (0-1 vs Tottenham).
● Man City’s Jack Grealish has been involved in five goals in his six Premier League appearances against West Ham (3 goals, 2 assists), including four in his last four – against no side has he been involved in more (also 5 vs Liverpool).
● Man City striker Erling Haaland could be the seventh Norwegian to score on his Premier League debut, and the third to do so in the opening game of a season (Tore Andre Flo in 1997-98, Adama Diomande in 2016-17). His father – Alf Inge Haaland – made 181 Premier League appearances between 1994 and 2001, with the last of those coming for Manchester City against West Ham United in April 2001.
● New Man City signing Erling Haaland has been involved in seven goals in his last three games played on the opening weekend of a league season – one assist with Red Bull Salzburg in 2019-20, two goals with Borussia Dortmund in 2020-21 and two goals and two assists with Dortmund last season.