PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s three Premier League games with stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LEEDS V CHELSEA
2pm We have another cracking Super Sunday in store on BETDAQ Betting Exchange in the Premier League! Chelsea will be hoping for less drama than last Sunday, but what a game the London Derby was. It was fantastic to see the passion between the managers, and who doesn’t look a bit of manager drama? As I said in my preview of the Spurs game on Saturday – you love to see it! The rivalry between Manchester City and Liverpool is boring because they are too nice to each other. Imagine the next game between Spurs and Chelsea now? It’s going to be superb. Anyway, Tuchel and Chelsea would have been gutted to concede in the 96th minute, but they have to get back to winning ways here. Leeds have started the season well, unbeaten in two, and they are always dangerous going forward however Chelsea will view this as a must win game against lower quality opposition. Leeds have done well in their two games – they played better than Southampton in the 2-2 draw last week and grinded out a 2-1 win against Wolves. My opinion on them hasn’t changed really – they still look very dodgy at the back, decent going forward, and I would expect plenty of goals and chances in their games this season. They are one of those sides that you always check the goal markets for the odds.
On paper, it might look like Chelsea had to work hard to win 1-0 away to Everton and then the London Derby was pretty even but if you look at their xG figures they have started the season well. They could have easily scored more against Everton – they finished the game with an xG of 2.08 and only conceded 0.66. Of course a London Derby was always going to be close, especially as Spurs look pretty good under Conte now, and they basically had the win in their hands until the final moments. There are a couple of options for me here – I couldn’t put anyone off the Chelsea win at 1.58 but the bet that stands out is Over 2.5 goals at 1.76. I’m surprised to see it trading this big to be honest, and I would almost have it trading the same price as Chelsea. Leeds always play an end-to-end game, it just doesn’t suit them to sit back because they are so weak at the back. The less of the ball they have the more chances they will concede. Chelsea have created a lot in their opening two games, and I just feel this game screams goals. The 1.76 is a very nice price, and I’m very happy to have a Max Bet to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeChe
● Leeds are winless in seven Premier League games against Chelsea (D2 L5) since a 2-0 victory at Elland Road back in December 2002.
● Chelsea won 3-0 at Elland Road last season against Leeds in the Premier League but have never won consecutive away league visits to the Whites in their entire history.
● Since Leeds lost 3-0 to Chelsea at Elland Road in May, the two sides have identical records in the Premier League (P4 W2 D2 L0). The Whites had a five-match unbeaten run as recently as March and April this year.
● Since Thomas Tuchel’s first away Premier League match in charge of Chelsea in February 2021, only Man City (23) have won more away games than the Blues (19), conceding just 17 times on the road, the fewest of any ever-present side in that time.
● Leeds have only kept five clean sheets in their last 41 Premier League matches, only shutting out three teams in that run: Watford twice, Crystal Palace twice and Brighton. They drew 2-2 with Southampton from 2-0 up last time out, the first time since returning to the top-flight they’d failed to win after going two goals ahead (won 13/13 of other games).
● Liverpool scored twice in the first half of Chelsea’s first Premier League match of 2022 but since then the Blues have conceded just three goals in the first half, with 16 of the 21 goals they have conceded this year coming in the second half (76%), including nine of their last 10.
● Leeds won their opening league match at Elland Road against Wolves on MD1 but never registered consecutive home Premier League wins last season. The Whites have only won their first two home matches in one of their previous 12 seasons, doing so in 2018-19 under Marcelo Bielsa.
● Chelsea’s Reece James has been involved in 15 goals in his last 24 Premier League starts (6 goals, 9 assists), including four in his last five (1 goal, 3 assists). In his league career, James has only been involved in more goals against Burnley (four) than he has against Leeds (1 goal, 2 assists).
● Following his three goals against Wolves and Southampton in their opening two league games, Rodrigo is looking to become only the fourth Leeds player to score in their first three top-flight matches in a season, after Arthur Hydes in 1933-34, Mick Jones in 1968-69 and Patrick Bamford in 2020-21.
● Jack Harrison has assisted in Leeds’ opening two league games this season, setting up Rodrigo on both occasions. Only two Englishmen have ever assisted a goal in their team’s first three Premier League matches in a season: Mark Patterson in 1995-96 for Bolton Wanderers and Michael Bridges in 2000-01 for Leeds.
WEST HAM V BRIGHTON
2pm We have the most open market of the day here as West Ham host Brighton. Although they didn’t play badly last weekend, West Ham would have been very disappointed with a 1-0 loss away to Nottingham Forest. That win could prove huge for Nottingham Forest in their bid to stay up, and it will give them some nice early confidence in the Premier League. I’m not going to judge The Hammers for losing to Manchester City in their opening game, but that Nottingham Forest loss does put them on the backfoot at the start of the season. Brighton, on the other hand, will be delighted with their start to the season. They took the headlines on the opening weekend with a 2-1 win at Old Trafford over Manchester United – although that form looks worse now after United lost 4-0 last weekend! Although Brighton had to settle for a 0-0 draw last weekend at home to Newcastle, their performance was top notch and they absolutely bossed the game. They finished with an xG of 1.97 and conceded just 0.18. That was an impressive display against a Newcastle side everyone fancies to do well this season. It’s not a surprise to see an open market here, and we have plenty of even markets. Over/Under 2.5 goals is more or less 2.0 and then Both Teams To Score is trading 1.82.
Although West Ham created an xG of 2.65 against Nottingham Forest, they conceded 2.19 which was pretty average. The biggest surprised was the 1-0 final score because it could have been 3-3! This is actually going to be a very interesting game to see how both sides perform with a view to the rest of the season, I would definitely lean towards Brighton here today though. You can’t help but be impressed with their opening two performances. We might have an open market, but I would have the prices even closer together. In my opinion West Ham look too short at 2.38 and Brighton too big at 3.3. It is tempting to back Brighton at the odds, but I do expect a close game here and it’s nice to have the draw on side too. I’m happy to take on West Ham here at odds, the lay looks a very nice position.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) West Ham to beat Brighton at 2.38 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesBri
● West Ham have won none of their 10 Premier League games against Brighton (D6 L4) – it’s both the most they’ve ever faced an opponent without winning, and the most Brighton have faced one without defeat.
● Brighton have never failed to score in 10 previous Premier League meetings with West Ham (W4 D6) – however, they’ve only kept two clean sheets in these 10 games, and in none of the last seven.
● In Premier League history, only Aston Villa (160) have lost more home games than West Ham United (159), with this the Hammers’ 500th such game in the competition. West Ham will become the ninth team to reach 500 Premier League home games, with none of the previous eight losing the milestone match (W5 D3).
● Brighton are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games, only once having a longer unbeaten run in the top-flight, going eight without defeat in October and November 1981.
● West Ham have lost both of their Premier League games so far this season, going down 2-0 against Man City and 1-0 at Nottingham Forest. Only once in their league history have they lost each of their first three without scoring a single goal, doing so in 1971-72.
● Since the start of last season, only Manchester City (49), Liverpool (44) and Chelsea (43) have won more away Premier League points than Brighton (32), who have lost just four of their 20 games on the road (W8 D8).
● West Ham are yet to score in the Premier League this season, failing with 25 shots at goal from an expected goal tally of 2.8, including a Declan Rice penalty against Nottingham Forest. The Hammers haven’t failed to score in their opening three league games in a season since 1994-95.
● Brighton have won their last two away Premier League games in London (2-1 vs Arsenal and 1-0 vs Spurs in April) and are looking for three consecutive away league wins in the capital for the first time since March 2001 (a run of five). Since the start of last season, the Seagulls are the only unbeaten away side in Premier League matches in London (P6 W3 D3).
● Michail Antonio scored four goals from seven efforts on target in his first three Premier League matches last season for West Ham. Since then, Antonio has scored six times in 35 games from 22 efforts on target; his last two shots on target have come across his last six appearances, although he did score with both of those (against Norwich and Brighton in May).
● Brighton’s Pascal Groß has been involved in seven goals in eight Premier League appearances against West Ham United (3 goals, 4 assists), his joint most against a single opponent (also seven against Man Utd).
NEWCASTLE V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm We finish the day with the shortest price of the day as Manchester City travel to take on Newcastle. Obviously it’s early days in the Premier League, but you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s already over. That’s quite dramatic, but Manchester City look completely on a different level and Liverpool have already given away four points against low quality opposition. It’s actually hard to see them bridging that gap, even so early in the season. Haaland’s stats against Bournemouth made the headlines – he basically didn’t get involved in the game at all the way it worked out – but Manchester City still won 4-0 and didn’t get out of second gear. That’s scary. Your world class striker didn’t do anything and you still score four goals! We’re going to see City start at some very short prices this season, they were very short last weekend against Bournemouth for example, but I feel this is one of the times that they offer some value. They are trading 1.39 to win here and I would have them closer to 1.3. I know Newcastle have made a lot of improvement over the last while, but there’s a huge gulf in class here.
You don’t need me to tell you how good City are – you only have to look at their stats to see that. They look untouchable in my opinion – indeed it will be interesting to see how they perform in the Champions League this season – surely this is the year that they can win it. Although they’ll probably throw away a winning position again! Newcastle are unbeaten in their opening two games this season with a 2-0 win at home to Nottingham Forest and a 0-0 draw away to Brighton. Their performance against Brighton was very poor though – they conceded an xG of 1.97 and only created 0.18. One wonders what they will concede to City here, and I’m very happy to take the 1.39. I wouldn’t usually recommend odds in the 1.3’s, but this is an exception in my opinion as I think we’re getting close to ten ticks of value. I just don’t see how Newcastle can stop this City team from scoring – if they were saying last week was poor from Haaland and they won 4-0, what will they do with him in form? This should be one way traffic in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Manchester City to beat Newcastle at 1.39 BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NewMan
● Newcastle have won just one of their last 29 Premier League games against Manchester City (D4 L24), winning 2-1 at home in January 2019.
● Man City have won their last five Premier League games against Newcastle, netting at least four goals in each of the last three. Only two teams have netted 4+ goals in four consecutive Premier League games against an opponent before – Liverpool vs West Ham (2017-2018) and Tottenham vs Stoke (2016-2017); Liverpool can also achieve this on Monday against Man Utd.
● Manchester City have scored in each of their last 27 Premier League games against Newcastle – it’s the longest scoring streak one team has had against another in the history of the competition.
● Newcastle and Manchester City are the only sides yet to concede a goal in the Premier League this season. The last time the Magpies kept a clean sheet in each of their first three league games was in 1961-62 (second tier), while they last did so in the top-flight in 1902-03.
● Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 19 Premier League away games. If they avoid defeat here, it would be the sixth different unbeaten run of 20+ Premier League games on the road, with Manchester United holding the outright record (29 between 2020 and 2021).
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has lost all 12 of his Premier League games against Manchester City, the biggest 100% losing record any manager has against a club in the history of the competition.
● Man City’s Pep Guardiola has won all 10 of his Premier League meetings with Newcastle boss Eddie Howe – it’s the best 100% win record one manager has against another in the competition’s history.
● Nick Pope has kept a clean sheet in both of his Premier League appearances for Newcastle so far. No keeper has ever kept a shutout in their first three for the Magpies, while the last to do so in three consecutive league games in general was Martin Dúbravka in June 2020.
● Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne has been involved in 17 goals in his last 12 Premier League appearances, scoring nine and assisting eight.
● Phil Foden has played 99 Premier League games for Man City – aged 22 years and 85 days on the day of this game, he could be the youngest player to have played 100 top-flight league games under Pep Guardiola. He would also be the second youngest player to reach the milestone for the Citizens, after Micah Richards.