PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s three Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
ASTON VILLA V WEST HAM
2pm Another fascinating Super Sunday on BETDAQ Betting Exchange in the Premier League. All the big favourites were pencilled in to play on Saturday this weekend, and we have two very competitive markets kicking off at 2pm Sunday afternoon, along with Spurs away to Nottingham Forest trading around 1.5 at the time of writing. Even if we have as much drama as we had last Sunday, then we’re in a treat! We start the day with Aston Villa hosting West Ham. We landed a nice bet going against Aston Villa last weekend, and it’s interesting to see them clear favourites here. They aren’t trading odds on, you wouldn’t expect them to be, but they do look too short to me again here at 2.34. They have been largely unimpressive this season, and I know I have said this a lot but I don’t think Steven Gerrard has improved them since he came in. Their xG figures haven’t changed – they are basically in a cycle of being too good to be a relegation battle but not good enough to get close to the top ten. They will finish middle of the bottom half of the table again. Perhaps you can understand the odds a little considering West Ham have lost their opening three games, but I still feel the 2.34 on Villa has to be taken on here.
West Ham haven’t become a bad side overnight. They have made huge progress under David Moyes, and this season just hasn’t worked out for them yet. You can forgive any side losing to Manchester City, then obviously losing to Nottingham Forest was disappointing but they did finish the game with a bigger xG figure and granted they were very average against Brighton last weekend. That performance is a worry, but I still feel they are levels above this Aston Villa side. Villa were poor when losing to Bournemouth and were played off the park by Crystal Palace last weekend. They did manage to beat a poor Everton side but they still conceded an xG of just over 2.0 which is a lot to concede to a side like Everton and they just generally don’t play well enough to reflect their odds in my opinion. I’m very happy to take them on again here – they aren’t quite a Max Lay given the West Ham worries at the moment, but it’s a confident bet to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Four points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat West Ham at 2.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstWes
● Aston Villa have won just one of their last 12 Premier League games against West Ham (D5 L6) and are winless in their last eight since a 1-0 win in May 2015.
● West Ham have won each of their last four Premier League games against Aston Villa, only ever winning five consecutively against Blackburn (2006-2008), Southampton (2018-2020) and Watford (2019-2022).
● West Ham have won their last two Premier League away games against Aston Villa, as many as in their previous 19 visits (D9 L8). The Hammers have won these games 3-1 and 4-1, having not scored more than twice in any of their previous 34 league games at Villa Park.
● This is West Ham’s 1,000th Premier League game (W335 D253 L411) – they’re the ninth different side to reach the milestone, and second who didn’t compete in the competition’s inaugural campaign, after Newcastle. The Hammers have lost more of their first 1000 than any of the previous eight sides.
● After their 2-1 win over Everton, Aston Villa are looking to win back-to-back home Premier League games within a single season for the first time since January 2021 under Dean Smith. Under Steven Gerrard, they have followed up each of their four previous Premier League victories at Villa Park with a defeat in their next home league game after each win.
● West Ham have lost seven of their last nine Premier League away games (W1 D1), including six of the last seven. Their only victory in this run was at already relegated Norwich City in May (4-0).
● West Ham remain the only Premier League side to have both failed to score a goal or manage to pick up a single point this season. In English top-flight history, only four sides have ever lost their opening four matches of a campaign while also failing to score in each defeat: Derby County in 1899-00, Stoke City in 1906-07, Preston North End in 1924-25, and Crystal Palace in 2017-18.
● Aston Villa have lost three of their last five Premier League matches when scoring first (W1 D1) – since Steven Gerrard took charge of his first game last November, no team has lost more Premier League games after scoring first than the Villans (5, level with Southampton).
● West Ham have lost their last four Premier League matches, last having a worse run in April 2017 under Slaven Bilic when they suffered a run of five defeats in a row. Manager David Moyes hasn’t lost five consecutive Premier League games since a run of six ending in October 2005 with Everton.
● Ollie Watkins has been involved in seven goals in his last nine Premier League appearances for Aston Villa (4 goals, 3 assists), scoring in Villa’s defeat at Crystal Palace last time out. He’s ended on the losing side in nine Premier League matches in which he’s scored, with only Gareth Barry (12) doing so more often for Aston Villa.
WOLVES V NEWCASTLE
2pm We have the most competitive market of the whole weekend in the Premier League here as Wolves host Newcastle! Both sides are nearly trading the same price sitting at around 2.8 at the time of writing. This will be a good test for both sides to be honest, Wolves are that side who are trading “shorter than you’d expect” in the relegation market. They have gone from challenging for the European spots to putting in some woeful performances, and I can understand why they are a lot of punters outside bet to go down. I doubt they will, but they might touch the relegation battle at some stage. Similar thoughts could be applied to the likes of Leicester looking at that market. Newcastle are the side hoping to take Wolves’ place a couple of seasons ago, and really break into that top eight possibly six – challenge for a European spot and bring in some bigger talent to the club. They haven’t really splashed the cash like I thought they would – but I suppose it is hard to attract players to the club in its current form with no European football. You can’t say they aren’t heading in the right direction though, and they were involved in a thrilling 3-3 draw with Manchester City last weekend – they gave as good as they got there! That was a decent performance, especially after the 0-0 draw away to Brighton because they were totally outplayed in that game. They conceded an xG of 1.97 and only created 0.18 in a game they were lucky to win.
Wolves xG figures make for interesting reading, and I can fully understand why they are a reasonably short price to go down considering they haven’t been close to a relegation battle lately. Last season they conceded an average xG of 1.6 per game in the Premier League, but they over-performed this massively only actually conceded 1.1 goals. They are only creating one goal per game, so you can see where the problems are. They have lost the ability to grind out results, and because they never created many chances if they are conceding too many goals they won’t get many results. Their three performances this season have reflected how limited they are going forward, and you can see that they are in trouble this season. Obviously the Newcastle performance away to Brighton does worry me, but I like the Wolves lay at 2.84 here – it’s a nice position to have the draw and Newcastle win on our side here. Newcastle look a much better side compared to Wolves this season.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Wolves to beat Newcastle at 2.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WolNew
● Wolves won 2-1 at home and lost 1-0 away to Newcastle last season – it was the first time in their seventh Premier League campaign together that neither meeting between the sides finished in a draw.
● Newcastle have scored in all 14 of their Premier League games against Wolves, their best 100% scoring rate in the competition. However, they’ve only kept one clean sheet in these games, though it was the last such meeting in April last season (1-0).
● Wolves are without a win in their last 10 Premier League matches (D3 L7), the longest ongoing such run among the 20 current sides in the competition. Indeed, it’s Wolves’ longest winless league streak since March 2013 in the Championship (run of 12).
● Newcastle United are unbeaten in their three Premier League games this season (W1 D2), last enjoying a four-match unbeaten start to a league season back in 2011-12 (first 11), going on to finish 5th.
● Wolves are winless in the Premier League this season with just one point from three games so far (D1 L2). They’ve only failed to win in their opening four league games once in their previous 17 seasons, going six games winless at the start of the 2019-20 season.
● In 2022, only Liverpool (53), Manchester City (50) and Tottenham Hotspur (48) have won more Premier League points than Newcastle (43). Their 13 wins in 2022 is already their most since 2019 (15) and five more than they managed in 2021 (8).
● Wolves have given two Portuguese players their Premier League debuts this season – Gonçalo Guedes and Matheus Nunes – taking the total number of players from Portugal to play for Wolves in the competition to 19, eight more than any other club. Eight Portuguese players featured against Spurs, a joint-record for non- English players from a single nation for a club in a Premier League match (10 instances – Wolves x8 and Newcastle x2).
● Since his Premier League debut in August 2019, Allan Saint-Maximin has provided more than twice as many assists in the competition than any other Newcastle player (15), with the Frenchman also assisting twice last time out against Manchester City – the third occasion that he’s assisted at least two goals in a Premier League game.
● Since his first Premier League campaign in 2015-16, only Sergio Agüero (14) and Raheem Sterling (12) have scored more Premier League goals in August than Callum Wilson (11), with the Newcastle forward scoring in two of their three matches so far this season.
● No player has had more shots from outside the box in the Premier League this season than Rúben Neves (6), contributing to Wolves’ total of 23, a league-high. He’s also had the most efforts from outside the area since his debut (229), with that tally almost 200 more than the total touches in the opposition’s box he’s had (34).
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V TOTTENHAM
4.30pm Another interesting market here to finish the day as Nottingham Forest host Spurs! Fair to say both North London clubs have reasons to be excited this season. At the moment, it looks like Spurs could actually take second spot off Liverpool (maybe!) and Arsenal could break into the Top Four (maybe!) Of course, there’s a long way to go in the season and we all know both clubs have a habit of throwing good positions away! Remember how many times Spurs and Arsenal threw away the advantage in the Top Four race last season? There looks to be a new confidence in Spurs though under Conte, and they are playing lovely football. They can seemingly do everything under Conte – perform against the top sides, create a host of chances and goals against the weaker sides and then grind out results too. Obviously it’s still early days, but they do look to have a backbone at the moment. Disaster always seems around the corner with Spurs, but with Conte there it feels different. Definitely more confidence in the squad. It will be interesting to see can they keep their position run going, because if they really want to become a top two or three side, then they have to win games like this.
Nottingham Forest are one of the favourites to go back down to the Championship, personally I would love to see them stay in the Premier League given their club history, and they have to be delighted with their opening three games. They were completely out-played by Newcastle on the opening weekend, but have since beaten West Ham and grinded out a 1-1 draw with Everton. Those are the type of results that will see them stay up – that has to be their only goal this season. Although they managed a 1-0 win over West Ham here, that game could have easily finished 4-4! They conceded an xG of 2.65 which has to be a worry with a view of what Spurs will create here, and I can’t fault Spurs this season – they have been superb. It is tempting to dip into the goal markets here because I do see an open game, however I don’t see another bet that compares to Spurs at 1.5. They have looked great this season so far, and Nottingham Forest are conceding too many chances – I can see Spurs ripping them apart at some stage, and the 1.5 is very much worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Tottenham to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotTot
● Nottingham Forest have won six of their last nine Premier League games against Spurs (D1 L2), though they did lose both meetings the last time the sides met in 1998-99.
● Tottenham have won four of their last five meetings with Nottingham Forest in all competitions (D1), with this the first such game since September 2014 (3-1 in the League Cup).
● Nottingham Forest have won each of their last eight home league games, their longest league winning run at the City Ground since a run of 12 between November 2009 and March 2010.
● After their unbeaten start in the Premier League so far, Tottenham are looking to avoid defeat in their opening four league matches for only the second time in the last 13 seasons, also doing so in 2016-17 under Mauricio Pochettino (first 12 games), going on to finish 2nd that season.
● After conceding in each of their first four home league games under Steve Cooper (conceding seven goals), Nottingham Forest have only conceded seven in their last 16 league games at the City Ground, keeping 10 clean sheets.
● Only Southampton (11) and Bournemouth (6) have had fewer shots in the first halves of Premier League matches this season than Spurs (12), with a league-high 69% of their efforts coming after the break (27/39). Indeed, only Everton (28) have had more attempts in the second half than Spurs.
● Tottenham boss Antonio Conte has lost just one of his 17 Premier League games against promoted sides (W13 D3), going down 3-0 at Newcastle in his final league game with Chelsea in May 2018. He’s won four of his five such games with Spurs, without conceding a single goal.
● Against Everton last time out, Brennan Johnson became Nottingham Forest’s third-youngest ever Premier League goalscorer (21 years, 89 days), after Marlon Harewood (19y 68d) and Paul McGregor (20y 14d). A goal against Tottenham here would see him become the youngest player to score in back-to-back appearances in the competition for the Tricky Trees, a record currently held by Roy Keane (21y 124d in December 1992).
● Harry Kane’s winner against Wolves last time out saw him overtake Sergio Agüero’s 184 goals for Manchester City as the top Premier League scorer for a single club (185 for Tottenham). Kane is now just two goals behind Andy Cole in third place (187) in the overall Premier League top scorers list (Alan Shearer 260, Wayne Rooney 208).
● Nottingham Forest are set to be the 32nd different opponent that Tottenham’s Harry Kane has faced in the Premier League. Kane has scored against 30 of the previous 31 (97%), failing only against Brentford (two apps, zero goals).