PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s two Premier League games. Its BRIGHTON v LEICESTER at 2pm and a cracker at 4.30pm as MAN U host table topping ARSENAL. Both matches previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BRIGHTON V LEICESTER
2pm What a Super Sunday ahead! We have two cracking fixtures to enjoy on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and while I’m sure Manchester United v Arsenal will take all the headlines this afternoon and rightfully so, we do start with an interesting market as Brighton host Leicester. I don’t think it matters so much at this stage of the season, but Brighton have had a little extra rest over Leicester heading into this fixture as they played on Tuesday night and Leicester had to play Manchester United Thursday night. Brighton lost 2-1 to Fulham which was a result which came from nowhere really. Prior to that they were unbeaten and had been playing very nice football – even their 0-0 draw against Newcastle was unlucky because they finished with an xG of 1.97 to 0.18. You can say that they were unlucky again against Fulham because they finished with an xG of over double what Fulham created, but how many times have we said that about Brighton and they just don’t convert their chances? Leicester have been bang average this season though, and this is an excellent chance for them to get back to winning ways. If you were to just look at the betting markets, Brighton should be competing for a European spot this season and Leicester might be in a relegation battle!
Leicester are clearly one of those sides that are “too good to go down” but if you look at their xG figures they are very unimpressive. It’s alarming how far they have dropped from competing for a Champions League spot in 2019/20 and 2020/21, and then if you look at their under-lining numbers from last season they should have been even worse. I felt that Brendan Rodgers didn’t suffer any pressure from the media because of how bad Manchester United were at the time, but he must be feeling the heat. Once again they were pretty average midweek, created an xG of under 1.0 with home advantage again and even the “lazy” United side seemed to have more energy. Although it was disappointing to see Brighton lose to Fulham midweek, they still played very well so I can’t see past them here 1.89. Leicester just look there for the taking at the moment, and at the moment it looks like they are in the relegation battle!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brighton to beat Leicester at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriLei
● Brighton took four points from Leicester last season (W1 D1), double the amount they had from their first eight Premier League meetings with the Foxes (W0 D2 L6).
● Leicester have only failed to score in one of their 10 Premier League meetings with Brighton, scoring in all five away from home against the Seagulls.
● Brighton have won three of their last four Premier League home games (D1), more than they had in their previous 16 at the Amex Stadium (W2 D7 L7). They’re looking to keep a clean sheet in each of their first three home league games in a single campaign for the first time since 2015-16.
● Leicester have both scored and conceded a goal in 25 of their last 28 Premier League away games, with the Foxes failing to score twice and keeping just one clean sheet in this run.
● Of the 65 instances of a team playing 100+ games on a specific day of the week in the Premier League, Leicester’s Sunday games have the highest goals-per-game average in the competition. The Foxes have scored 188 and conceded 179 in 110 Sunday games for an average of 3.3.
● No side has conceded fewer Premier League goals this season than Brighton (3). 67% of their goals conceded have come via own goals (2/3), with Aleksandar Mitrovic the only opposing player to net against the Seagulls so far this term.
● Brighton have won six of their last nine Premier League games played on Sunday (D3), just one fewer than they had in their first 24 such matches (W7 D7 L10).
● Of all players to have scored more than five Premier League goals, Brighton’s Alexis Mac Allister has netted the lowest percentage of them in home games (12.5%), with just one of his eight strikes coming at the Amex Stadium.
● Pascal Groß has been involved in four of Brighton’s six Premier League goals so far this season (67%), with three goals and one assist. He’s two involvements shy of becoming the first player to register 50 Premier League goals or assists for the Seagulls (20 goals, 28 assists).
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy averages a goal every 120 minutes in Premier League games played on Sundays (41 goals in 63 games); of all players to have played at least 50 times on Sunday, only Pierre- Emerick Aubameyang has a better minutes-per-goal ratio than Vardy (115).
MANCHESTER UNITED V ARSENAL
4.30pm We finish the Premier League weekend with a cracker! It’s superb to have this fixture take up the prime TV Sunday slot, and surely we’re bound to see a lot of drama here! We have a very open market here, and perhaps it’s a sign of the times that Arsenal can even be close to going off favourites at Old Trafford. A couple of weeks ago I remember remarking that I’ve never seen Liverpool trading as short as they were to beat United a few weeks ago but we all know how that turned out! Obviously United are a team in transition, but after a lot of drama during the summer and a woeful start, you would have to reflect that the transfer window has worked out well for them. It seems Erik ten Hag is getting supported and they have delivered in that regard, and now it is up to the manager and the squad to perform. It’s still interesting to see what happens with Ronaldo who doesn’t seem to fit into the ten Hag system, which is fair enough to be honest – it’s just one of those things. Although there is a huge amount of rivalry between the sides because of history – remember the glory years of Ferguson v Wenger and Keane v Vieira – I think Manchester United fans are probably looking at Arsenal’s start thinking they have moved ahead of them now. I think we’ll see Arsenal come crashing back down to earth at some stage and the fans have got ahead of themselves, but you’d have to say that Arsenal are in a good place at the moment, and ahead of this United squad. It’s taken a lot of work to get here though.
We have a very open market here, and it’s hard to see anything bar a close game here. It’s going to be fascinating to see how Arsenal actually get on here – this is their first big test of the season. On paper, you would have expected the results they have had so far, and now let’s see how they get on. Despite grinding out a win away to Southampton after the win against Liverpool, United didn’t exactly boss the game. From a United point of view, it’s good that they have home advantage here because they probably need that at this stage. We might see an improved United performance here, but I wouldn’t be rushing to back them here at 2.66. Once again, they managed to win “ugly” midweek in the sense that they didn’t create many chances. It was very promising to see them with high energy again, but I just feel Arsenal will create more here. Arsenal had a reasonably close game with Aston Villa midweek but they grinded out another win. They deserved to score more because they finished the game with an xG of 2.94 and only conceded 0.31. They bossed the game, and have a confidence this season that they have lacked over the last few years. I feel they can get a result here, and although we will have a very close game and the market is expecting one too, I still feel the Manchester United lay offers value at 2.66.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Arsenal at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunArs
● Manchester United have won just one of their last eight Premier League games against Arsenal (D3 L4), though it was in this exact fixture last season (3-2).
● Arsenal have won just one of their last 15 Premier League away games against Man Utd (D5 L9), picking up a 1-0 victory in November 2020.
● Arsenal have lost more Premier League away games against Manchester United than they have vs any other opponent (17), while only at Anfield (69) have they conceded more away goals than at Old Trafford (49).
● Manchester United have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 Premier League meetings with Arsenal, a goalless draw at the Emirates Stadium in January 2021. At home, they’ve conceded in their last eight against the Gunners since a 1-0 win in November 2013.
● Arsenal are looking to become only the fifth different side to win their opening six Premier League matches in a season, after Newcastle (1994-95), Chelsea (2005-06 & 2009-10), Man City (2016-17) and Liverpool (2018-19 & 2019-20). The Gunners last did so in the top-flight in 1947-48, going on to win the title that year.
● Manchester United have lost their last three Premier League games on a Sunday – it’s their longest losing streak on this day in the league since a run of five between December 1989 and November 1990.
● Arsenal have won both of their Premier League away games so far this season, winning 2-0 at Crystal Palace and 3-0 at Bournemouth. They’ve not won each of their first three on the road since 2013-14, while only once in their entire history have they kept a clean sheet in their first three away league games (W2 D1 under Bruce Rioch in 1995-96).
● Each of Arsenal’s last nine Premier League goals have been left-footed strikes, the joint-longest run of left- footed goals by a team in the competition’s history (also Leeds with 9 between August and November 2021).
● Man Utd’s Cristiano Ronaldo has scored seven goals in his last eight games against Arsenal in all competitions, netting home and away against the Gunners in the Premier League last term. Overall he’s scored nine goals against Arsenal, and they could be the 20th different opponent he reaches double figures against in his career for club and country.
● Manchester United are one of just three sides Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus has faced in the Premier League but not scored against, along with Cardiff City and Brentford. The Brazilian has played 454 minutes in nine games against the Red Devils.