PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s matches between BRENTFORD v ARSENAL and EVERTON v WEST HAM both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BRENTFORD V ARSENAL
12pm It’s the last Premier League day before we head into the International break and we have two fixtures to enjoy on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s a shame we don’t have the original schedule as it promised to be a blockbuster day with Manchester United hosting Leeds and Chelsea hosting Liverpool, but they were rightly postponed due to policing issues around the Queen’s passing and the funeral arrangements. We still have two intriguing markets, and we start the day with Brentford hosting Arsenal. We have a very open market for Everton v West Ham later, so Arsenal are the big favourites of the day. They are currently trading 1.85 at the time of writing. Brentford have started the season in good form though, and I’m sure there will be some big opinions on the Arsenal price either side of the back and lay book. Arsenal started this weekend still sitting top of the table even after the loss to Manchester United – they also haven’t played for a while after their Europa League clash was postponed due to policing issues on Thursday evening. It’s reasonable to say that this Arsenal side is definitely an improvement on previous years, however the jury is still out. They showed a lot of immature signs when losing at Old Trafford, and you also have to say the manager “went for it” too early in the game too with the treble substitution. It will be interesting to see how they perform here.
They have already got that United loss out of their system with a 2-1 win away to Zurich in the Europa League last week, and they have played some very nice football this season. The issue I have is they haven’t really faced anyone major. They have played Crystal Palace, Leicester, Bournemouth, Fulham and Aston Villa. All sides that they are fully entitled to beat, and sides you look at and think they will suit Arsenal. Regardless of the Arsenal level over the years, they have always been good at beating the sides in the lower half of the table that give them time and space. Brentford had an incredible home record last season, the created a huge amount of chances but just didn’t take them – they probably had the unluckiest home record of the season. So far this season they have created xG figures at home of 1.75, 2.57 and 2.85. They have scored ten goals from three games, and should have beaten Everton too. I’m going to keep stakes in check here because there’s no getting away from the fact that Arsenal have been good this season, but like I said the jury is out and I wouldn’t have them as short as 1.85 here. I feel they are a good value lay to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Brentford at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreArs
● Brentford have won five of their six home league games against Arsenal (L1), including a 2-0 victory in this exact fixture last term.
● Arsenal have won four of their last six meetings with Brentford in all competitions since 1939 (D1 L1), having won just one of their first nine against the Bees between 1902 and 1938 (D3 L5).
● Brentford have scored 15 goals in their six Premier League games this season, with only Manchester City netting more (20). Their average of 2.5 goals-per-game is almost double their average for last season (1.3 – 48 goals in 38 games).
● Brentford have lost just one of their last 17 home league London derbies (W13 D3), going down 1-0 against Chelsea in October last season.
● Arsenal have won five of their last eight away London derby matches in the Premier League (L3), as many as they had in their previous 23 on the road (D9 L9).
● None of Arsenal’s last 23 Premier League games have been drawn (W16 L7). It’s the longest ongoing run without a draw among sides currently in the competition, while only between January and October 2018 (25) have the Gunners had a longer run without one.
● Only Manchester City (19.6%) have a higher shot conversion rate in the Premier League this season than Brentford (19.5%). The Bees have also outperformed their expected goals by almost five (15 goals, 10.2 xG), with only Man City again doing better.
● Brentford have scored more goals from outside the box than any other side in the Premier League this season, with their four from distance already one more than they netted the whole of last term.
● Only Erling Haaland (11) has been directly involved in more Premier League goals than Brentford’s Ivan Toney so far this season (7 – 5 goals, 2 assists). Toney is averaging a goal or assist every 77 minutes in the Premier League this season, compared to one every 171 minutes last term.
● Coming into the weekend’s games, Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus has had more touches in the opposition box (66), attempted more dribbles (34), more dribbles in the box (8) and won more fouls (21) than any other player in the Premier League this season.
EVERTON V WEST HAM
2.15pm We have a very competitive market here as Everton host West Ham. When you take a look at the Premier League table, you can see that this is a massive game for both sides. West Ham started the weekend sitting in the bottom three with Everton just outside – both have four points from their opening six games. West Ham have had a pretty tough fixture list – they have had to play Manchester City, Brighton away, Spurs and Chelsea. They managed their one win against Aston Villa and although they would have been bitterly disappointed to lose to Nottingham Forest they did finish the game with a higher xG figure. Everton haven’t managed a win yet, but they have put four draws together. The most impressive of those was a 0-0 here against Liverpool before the little break in fixtures – the xG of that game finished 1.53 to 2.25, so we could have easily had a big score line but Everton grinded out a draw. Although the Everton games this season haven’t had many goals, they have been entertaining and if you look at the xG figures you’ll see they have given away plenty of chances and created more than last season too. From that point of view, Everton do look like they have improved going forward since last season. The issue for Frank Lampard is they are still conceding too many chances, and that needs to be addressed. West Ham games have also not seen many goals – indeed if you backed Over 2.5 goals in both these sides fixtures you would have only collect twice from twelve games.
It’s a pretty similar story with West Ham in the sense that there could have easily been more goals in their games too. Take the Nottingham Forest game for example, it finished 1-0 but the xG was 2.19 to 2.65. The market is expecting a very close and intense affair, and while it might be cagey I do feel there is value in Over 2.5 goals at 2.1. I suppose the main worry is both sides take a while to come out of their shell, and in that sense you might get a bigger price in-play. The draw is an appealing bet too at 3.4. I feel West Ham are rightfully favourites here, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 2.58. Everton haven’t been good enough to back this season, but they could easily grind out another draw here for five in a row. I was trying to decide what bet I like more, but I feel the better option is Both Teams To Score at 1.86. This covers the 1-1 possibility too, I would be very surprised to see a 0-0 draw and Over 2.5 would lose in that case anyway. For Overs to land I think we need both teams to score, and I actually wouldn’t put anyone off backing 1-1 in the Correct Score market too.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveWhu
● Everton have won more Premier League games (27) and scored more Premier League goals (88) against West Ham than they have vs any other opponent. However, they’ve lost three of their last four against the Hammers (W1).
● West Ham have won both of their last two Premier League away games against Everton, each by a 1-0 scoreline. They’ve never won three consecutive trips to Goodison Park in their league history.
● Everton are winless in their last seven Premier League games, with three defeats being followed by four consecutive draws – they last time the Toffees drew five league games in a row was in May 1977.
● Everton have an expected goals against value of 10.3, but have conceded just six goals in the Premier League this season – it’s the biggest difference between xG against and actual goals conceded in the competition this term (4.3).
● Everton are winless in the Premier League so far this season – only three times in their top-flight history have they failed to win any of their first seven games of a league campaign, doing so in 1926-27, 1956-57 and 1994-95.
● West Ham United have lost seven of their last nine Premier League away games (W2). Overall in 2022 they’ve lost eight on the road (W3 D1), with only Everton losing more away games so far this calendar year.
● No side has scored fewer Premier League goals than West Ham this season (3), with the Hammers the only side yet to score before half-time in the competition this term.
● Everton manager Frank Lampard has lost three of his four Premier League games against West Ham (W1) – he’s only lost more against Liverpool in the competition (4), while only against Liverpool again (80%) has he lost a higher percentage of his top-flight games in charge than against the Hammers (75%).
● Only Nick Pope (82.4%) has a higher save percentage than Everton keeper Jordan Pickford in the Premier League this season (81.3%). It’s the highest save % he’s recorded in a single campaign in the competition, up almost 15% from last term (66.7%).
● Michail Antonio has been involved in West Ham’s last two Premier League goals, assisting Tomáš Souček against Spurs before scoring against Chelsea. He’s looking to score in consecutive Premier League games for the first time since August 2021 (a run of three).