PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker looks ahead to Sunday’s two Premier League games including SPURS v MAN CITY at 4.30pm – both matches previewed with FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V LEEDS
2pm An intriguing Super Sunday in the Premier League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! I’m sure all eyes will be on Spurs v Manchester City in the prime TV slot, but we have a very interesting market to start the day as Nottingham Forest host Leeds. I think it would be unfair to call this a massive game in the relegation battle because Nottingham Forest have moved up the table so much in recent weeks, and also the fact that Leeds have a quality squad – but the loser will definitely be on the backfoot and dragged into a relegation battle for the next while. After wins against Southampton and Leicester, Forest come into the game with a three point advantage over Leeds so they definitely have a little cushion. Leeds started the weekend just one point away from the bottom three, while they have scored plenty of goals in the FA Cup recently they have yet to win a Premier League game since they re-started their season after the World Cup. They had a difficult start back having to play Manchester City and Newcastle, but that will be disappointed with their results since. It’s hard to be overly hard on Leeds however – they lost their last away game 2-1 to Aston Villa but they did create an xG of 2.84. Once again, it was a case of them not taking their chances!
You’d imagine that this will be a very close game, and indeed we have a very open market. There is only four ticks between the sides at the time of writing with Nottingham Forest trading 2.74 and Leeds 2.78 – we could easily see a change in favourite before kick off! I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here as Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.98! I was very surprised to see Overs trading as high as 1.98 when I clicked into the market. As we all know, Leeds like to play a very open game and you only have to look at their xG figures to see how entertaining their games are. Their average xG created is 1.5 and conceded is 1.8. Nottingham Forest aren’t shy either and have been involved in some ding-dong battles. They don’t created as much as Leeds as their average xG going forward is 1.2 but their average conceded is 1.7. I feel these two are going to gel very well together for an exceptionally entertaining game. We’re getting so much value at 1.98 it’s worth a Max Bet in my opinion. I’d be very surprised if we didn’t see goals!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Nottingham Forest have won their last two home league games against Leeds, last winning three in a row against them at the City Ground in May 1991.
● Leeds have won just two of their last 15 league games against Nottingham Forest (D6 L7), with those wins coming consecutively in January and August 2017.
● Leeds are winless in their last 12 top-flight away games against Nottingham Forest (D7 L5), with this their first such visit since a 1-1 draw in October 1998. Indeed, Leeds have never won away at Forest in the top-flight without Don Revie either in the starting line-up (1959) or as manager (five wins between 1966 and 1971).
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2020, Leeds have won all five of their away games against promoted sides by an aggregate score of 14-3. These victories account for 31% of all their away league wins over the last three seasons (5/16).
● Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games (W2 D2), last having a longer run without defeat in the top-flight between February and November 1995 (25 games). They’re unbeaten in their last six at home, alternating between a draw and a victory each time.
● No side has won fewer Premier League points away from home than Leeds United this season (5 – W1 D2 L6), with their only victory on the road coming at Liverpool in October.
● Nottingham Forest have had fewer shots on target than any other Premier League side this season (64), while only West Ham (9.8) and Wolves (7.7) are under-performing in regards to expected goals by a wider margin than Forest (7.4 – 16 goals from 23.4 xG).
● Leeds have had more pressed sequences (310) and allow their opponents the fewest passes per defensive action (PPDA – 9.8) in the Premier League this season. One of their key players for this is Brenden Aaronson, who has applied more pressures than any other player in the league this term (654).
● Nottingham Forest’s Brennan Johnson has been involved in four goals in his last three Premier League games (2 goals, 2 assists), double the amount he had in his first 17 appearances (2 goals). These four goal involvements have been worth five points to Forest.
● No player has received more through balls from a specific teammate in the Premier League this season than Nottingham Forest’s Brennan Johnson (6 from Morgan Gibbs-White).
TOTTENHAM V MANCHESTER CITY
4.30pm The Premier League have saved the best fixture until last this weekend as Spurs host Manchester City! If this game has even half the drama that the fixture had when Manchester City had home advantage a few weeks ago, then we’re in from a treat. Spurs were getting excited going 2-0 up just before half-time, but sometimes it’s dangerous to take a lead that early against City and sure enough things were turned around in the second half with City running out 4-2 winners. We generally see plenty of drama and goals between these two, so I’m sure we have an entertaining game in store. City recorded a big win in the FA Cup last weekend over Arsenal – as I said in my preview of that game that might give them a little mental edge – especially with those sides meeting again in two weeks. Spurs might have had an easy 3-0 win over Preston North End in the FA Cup at the weekend, but their Premier League form has been pretty poor. They were totally outplayed by Arsenal, and City in the end while they didn’t really deserve to win against Fulham afterwards. They have definitely been stronger at home though, and most of their poor performances have come away from home. Conte looks like a man under pressure with Spurs dropping out of the Top Four, and to be honest it’s hard to see them getting a result here.
For me the big question in this game is choosing between Man City at 1.78 and Over 2.5 goals 1.7. Both are decent bets in my opinion, and I couldn’t put anyone off either but the question is what bet offers the best value market wise. Despite scoring twice against Spurs a few weeks ago, the Spurs goals came from nothing really – it was more a case of City making mistakes and Spurs only finished the game with an xG of 0.86. City got their act together in the second half and recorded an xG of 2.66. I do feel we’ll see a lot of good chances here, and more than like Over 2.5 goals will land but I feel the best bet is City at 1.78. They look head and shoulders above this Spurs side, and to be honest it’s hard to see how Spurs can stop City from scoring. They have been conceding so many sloppy goals this season – even to the lower sides in the Premier League. There’s no getting away from the fact that they are exciting coming from two goals down etc, or winning 4-3, but you just can’t play like that against the top sides. I can’t see past City here, and they are a confident bet at 1.78.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Manchester City to beat Tottenham at 1.78 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotMci
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Tottenham lost 4-2 against Manchester City in the reverse fixture last month, last losing both league meetings with the Citizens in 2018-19.
● Manchester City have lost their last three away league games against Tottenham by an aggregate score of 5-0. Only twice in the Premier League have they lost four in a row without scoring away against an opponent – against Chelsea between 2006 and 2009, and Sunderland between 2010 and 2013.
● Tottenham have lost four of their last five Premier League home games (W1), the first time they’ve lost as many in a five-game spell since August-November 2014 (also 4/5). They’ve lost their last two at home, last losing three in a row in September 2008.
● Tottenham have conceded at least twice in each of their last five Premier League home games, last conceding 2+ goals in more consecutive home league games between September-November 1988 (6). They’ve also conceded the first goal in each of these five games, last doing so in six straight home league games between April-September 2003.
● Manchester City have lost two of their last five Premier League away games (W3), as many as in their previous 37 on the road. They last lost back-to-back away league games in May/August 2021, the second of which was at Tottenham.
● Man City manager Pep Guardiola has lost all four of his visits to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in all competitions – it’s the away ground he’s managed at the most without ever winning in his managerial career.
● Man City’s Riyad Mahrez has been involved in more Premier League goals against Tottenham than he has any other opponent (11 – 7 goals, 4 assists), with the Algerian having a hand in three of the Citizens’ goals in their 4-2 win in January.
● Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has scored 25 goals in 19 Premier League appearances this season – only two players have ever scored more in their debut Premier League campaign; Andrew Cole (34 in 1993-94) and Kevin Phillips (30 in 1999-00).
● Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored 199 Premier League goals in 303 games, and would be the third player to reach 200 after Alan Shearer (260) and Wayne Rooney (208). A goal in this game would see him reach the milestone in fewer games than the other two (Shearer 306, Rooney 462).
● 23% of Man City midfielder Kevin De Bruyne’s open play passes have ended in the opposition penalty area this season, the highest rate of any player with at least 300 passes in the Premier League this term.