THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League action with extended stats and a recommended bet. We’re underway at 12pm with FULHAM v EVERTON with a great fixture to finish the day LIVERPOOL v LEICESTER.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
FULHAM V EVERTON
12pm We have an early start on Sunday for another great day of Premier League action! We have some cracking markets today on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with no massive favourites so it’s a very interesting day from a betting point of view too. We start the day with Fulham hosting Everton in a big game for both sides, for different reasons. Fulham started matchday 9 just outside the bottom three, while Everton must surely be looking at this fixture as a way to get back to winning ways. They have come crashing back down to earth with three loses after a great start.
I must say the losses against Southampton and Newcastle are worrying, however I have to admit Everton look a very good price at 1.99 here. Fulham have been very poor in the Premier League thus far, and they have only managed to take points of Sheffield United and West Brom – two sides that are below them in the table. Everton have their faults, but they can beat this Fulham side who look very poor looking at the underlining xG numbers. I’d have Everton under 1.9, so 1.99 looks an excellent play to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Four points win Everton to beat Fulham at 1.99 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQfuleve
- Fulham won their last Premier League meeting with Everton (2-0 in April 2019), ending a run of 10 league games without a win against the Toffees (D2 L8). It was Scott Parker’s first victory as a manager in the competition.
- Everton have only failed to score in one of their last nine Premier League meetings with Fulham, though it was their last such match against them in April 2019 (0-2).
- Of all Premier League fixtures to have been played on more than 10 occasions, Fulham vs Everton has seen the highest percentage of home wins, with 23 of the 28 meetings between the two being won by the home side (82%).
- Everton have won their last two Premier League games in London, as many as they had in their previous 26 such games (W2 D11 L13). They last won three league games in a row in the capital back in April 1987.
- After conceding 10 goals in their first three Premier League games this season, Fulham have now shipped just five in their last five in the competition, picking up their first victory of the campaign in that run (2-0 vs West Brom).
- Everton have lost their last three Premier League matches, as many as they had in their previous 14. The Toffees last lost four in a row in October 2019 under Marco Silva.
- Fulham are the only side yet to score in the opening 15 minutes of their Premier League games so far this season, while the Cottagers have also shipped the most in this timeframe (5).
- Everton have conceded at least twice in each of their last five Premier League games – they last conceded 2+ goals in six consecutive league games back in October 2008.
- Everton’s Gylfi Sigurdsson has had a hand in five goals in his five Premier League appearances against Fulham (4 goals, 1 assist), with two of his five braces in the competition coming against the Cottagers (March 2012 with Swansea, September 2018 with Everton).
- Since he joined the club in 2018, Everton are winless in all eight Premier League games in which Richarlison has played no part (D4 L4), losing all three since his sending off against Liverpool earlier this season.
SHEFFIELD UNITED V WEST HAM
2pm The struggling Sheffield United host West Ham and I’m a big fan of the Hammers here at 2.5. Sheffield United have only managed one point from eight games and sit bottom of the table. In fairness to them, they have had some tough fixtures – they have had to play Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool already. Their draw came against Fulham, who have been poor too, however unlike Fulham they haven’t been playing too bad. Sheffield United generally create an xG of around 1 per game, but that just hasn’t been enough to get points.
I feel West Ham will outscore them here because they have been playing some impressive football. They’ve had tough fixture too, meeting Manchester City and Liverpool as well but they did manage a 1-1 draw with City. They were very impressive beating Wolves 4-0 and Leicester 3-0, while they were very unlucky to lose against Arsenal – winning the game 2.32 to 1.33 on xG. If they generate the same volume of chances today, they will outscore this Sheffield United side.
The Striker Says:
Three points win West Ham to beat Sheffield United at 2.5 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQshuwhu
- Sheffield United have won all three of their home Premier League games against West Ham, their best such 100% record in the competition.
- In all competitions, West Ham are winless in their last three away games against Sheffield United (D1 L2), since a 2-1 win in the Championship in September 2004. West Ham haven’t won a top-flight match at Bramall Lane since April 1968.
- London sides are winless in their last 11 Premier League visits to face Sheffield United at Bramall Lane (D1 L10), since Chelsea won 2-0 in October 2006. Indeed, the Blades’ only point so far this season was at home against London side Fulham.
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League games against sides starting the day bottom, winning their last four in a row by an aggregate score of 13-4. Their last such defeat was back in April 2015 at Leicester.
- Sheffield United have become just the fifth team in Premier League history to pick up just one point in their first eight games of a season, though two of the previous four have survived the drop (Southampton in 1998-99 and Sunderland in 2013-14). Only in 1990-91 have the Blades ever failed to win any of their first nine games in a league season.
- Sheffield United haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 Premier League games, conceding 20 goals in the process. Their previous 20 goals conceded in the competition came over a period of 21 matches.
- Sheffield United have dropped a league-high six points from winning positions so far in the Premier League this season, throwing away leads to lose against both Liverpool and Chelsea.
- West Ham have lost just one of their last six Premier League games (W3 D2), despite playing five of last season’s top seven finishing clubs in that run. Indeed, their only defeat was at reigning champions Liverpool.
- Sheffield United have the biggest negative difference between expected goals (7.7) and goals scored (4) in the Premier League this season, scoring roughly four goals fewer than would normally be expected based on the quality of their chances.
- West Ham’s Aaron Cresswell has created more chances from set play than any other player in the Premier League this season, with four of West Ham’s 14 goals this term coming from a corner/free-kick situation.
LEEDS V ARSENAL
4.30pm A fascinating fixture! Optimism is high around Arsenal this season but the underlining numbers suggest they haven’t changed. They have been exceptionally lucky to win games at times this season. The 2-1 win over West Ham sticks out as they “lost” the game 2.32 to 1.33 on xG and they were also lucky to score twice against the struggling Sheffield United. The good news for Arsenal fans here though is Leeds play a very open game and will definitely give Arsenal chances.
Even allowing for the volume of chances Leeds give Arsenal, I feel Arsenal are still too short here at 2.3. Leeds have been excellent this season, and have actually been one of the better teams going forward in the Premier League. There’s no doubt that they have been the most entertaining to watch as their games have had a lot of goals. That’s why I’m surprised to see over 2.5 goals as big as 1.73, of course the Arsenal lay is tempting but I can’t look past overs at those odds. This should be another end-to-end Leeds game packed with chances and goals.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQleears
- Leeds are winless in their last seven meetings with Arsenal in all competitions (D1 L6) since a 3-2 win at Highbury in May 2003.
- Since a 0-1 loss in November 2000, Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five away games against Leeds in all competitions (W4 D1), winning the last four in a row by an aggregate score of 15-4.
- Arsenal have won nine of their last 11 Premier League games in Yorkshire (L2), though they did lose their last visit to the county against Sheffield United in October 2019 (0-1).
- Coming into this weekend’s games, no side has conceded more Premier League goals than Leeds this season (17), with the Whites losing their last two league games by a 1-4 scoreline.
- Leeds have lost their last two Premier League games – they’ve not lost three league games in a row under Marcelo Bielsa, last doing so in November 2017 under Thomas Christiansen.
- Arsenal have lost three of their last four Premier League games (W1), as many as in their previous 12 (W8 D1 L3). The Gunners have failed to score in each of those three defeats, and haven’t found the net from open play in their last six hours and 26 minutes of Premier League action.
- Arsenal are the only side yet to concede a single goal from a set-piece situation in the Premier League this season, while coming into this weekend’s games no side have conceded more such goals than Leeds United (8, including penalties).
- Only Liverpool (68) have had more high turnovers than Leeds in the Premier League this season (37), highlighting the Whites’ high pressing game under Marcelo Bielsa. However, just five of these have resulted in a shot, the fifth lowest ratio in the competition this term (13.5%).
- Patrick Bamford has scored seven goals in his eight Premier League games for Leeds United, with only Mark Viduka (9) netting more in their first eight such games for the club. However, just one of Bamford’s seven strikes has come at Elland Road.
- Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has had just four shots across his last four Premier League games, with the only effort on target being his successful penalty against Manchester United. The Gunners captain is averaging just 1.3 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season, compared to 2.7 last term.
LIVERPOOL V LEICESTER
7.15pm What a great fixture to finish the day! You just have to look at the recent form of both sides to see what an excellent game of football this will be! Leicester had a bit of a wobble after beating Manchester City to lose against West Ham and Aston Villa but they have recovered nicely in recent weeks. They have benefitted from playing lower quality opposition in the Europa League, and now they are creating chances for fun. They should prove to be a handful for a Liverpool side without Virgil Van Dijk at the back.
Even with Leicester in good form and Liverpool’s injury worries, they still look too big here at 1.95. They have been pretty impressive this season – the 1-1 draw away to City was very solid and they thrashed Atalanta 5-0 prior to that. If you looked at their results you might feel that they aren’t scoring as many as they used to, but they are creating chances. Even in their 2-2 draw with Everton they created an xG of 2.85 and were unlucky not to win. This should be an excellent game for any football fans, but for me Liverpool are worth backing at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Liverpool to beat Leicester at 1.95 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQlivlcr
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last nine home Premier League games against Leicester (W7 D2), having lost three in a row against them at Anfield between 1997-2000.
- Leicester have won just two of their last 16 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D3 L11), and are without a win in six against them since a 3-1 victory at the King Power Stadium in February 2017.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 63 Premier League home games, their joint-longest such run without defeat at home in the top-flight. Their previous run between February 1978-December 1980 was eventually ended with defeat to Leicester.
- Liverpool have kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 Premier League games (2-0 at Chelsea), conceding in each of their last six at home in the competition. Indeed, only promoted sides Leeds and West Brom (17 each) have conceded more goals than the reigning champions so far this term (16).
- Leicester have won six of their eight Premier League games this season (L2), as many as they had in their final 22 games last season (W6 D6 L10).
- Liverpool have conceded first in each of their last three home Premier League games, but have come back to win each time – no side has ever done this in four consecutive Premier League home games before.
- Liverpool have conceded more first-half goals than any other Premier League side this season (11), while no side have shipped fewer after half-time than the Reds (5).
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has lost both of his Premier League games against former side Liverpool since leaving the club in 2015. Indeed, managers to have previously taken charge of Liverpool in the Premier League have won just four of their 29 matches against them after leaving (D6 L19) – Graeme Souness with Newcastle in March 2005, Gérard Houllier with Aston Villa in May 2011 and Roy Hodgson with West Brom in April 2011 and April 2012.
- Liverpool forward Diogo Jota has scored in all three of his Premier League home games for the Reds so far – no player in the club’s history has scored in each of their first four top-flight home games.
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has already netted eight goals in his seven Premier League appearances this season. Vardy has also scored seven goals in 11 Premier League games against Liverpool, with only Andy Cole (11) and Thierry Henry (8) netting more against the Reds in the competition.
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