PREMIER LEAGUE SUNDAY: The Striker previews Sunday’s mouthwatering Premier League action including Chelsea v Arsenal and Spurs v Liverpool. All previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats via FACTMAN.
CHELSEA V ARSENAL
12pm It truly is a Super Sunday in the Premier League this week! We have a huge afternoon ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with some massive games and fascinating betting heats too – what a day to look forward to! We kick it off earlier than usual with a noon kick off time for the London Derby as Chelsea host Arsenal. We have an extremely open market here with both sides trading within six ticks of each other – Chelsea come into the game as favourites at 2.74 given they have home advantage, but you have to say that Arsenal have been playing the better football this season. Both sides had positive results midweek with Chelsea topping their Champions League Group and then Arsenal topping their Europa League Group on Thursday. Arsenal actually have a quick turnaround here – they played late on Thursday and now very early Sunday – however Arteta was able to make seven changes to the side for Thursday night, so the quick turnaround shouldn’t be an issue. Chelsea needed that confidence boosting 3-1 win over Dinamo Zagreb midweek, but Dinamo play their football at a very low level and when you look at the recent Chelsea performances you can clearly see that they haven’t been firing.
They were played off the park last weekend away to Brighton when losing 4-1, and their performances against Red Bull Salzburg, Manchester United, Brentford and Aston Villa were pretty average. They beat Aston Villa and Red Bull Salzburg, but both times they conceding a higher xG figure than they created. I would definitely favour Arsenal here – I feel that they should be favourites but what I would say about Chelsea is that most of their poor performances have come away from home. They are definitely more comfortable at home at the moment, but they are hardly creating chances for fun either. Arsenal had a couple of setbacks recently when drawing to Southampton and losing to PSV, but both games they created more than they conceded. You’d have to be worried about the way Arsenal essentially got “bullied” away to Manchester United, but they are playing better than Chelsea this season and at the moment. I feel it’s worth taking the 2.8 on the away win here, but just keeping stakes reasonably low. This is a crunch game for Arsenal’s title bid isn’t it – if they win maybe everyone will start to believe.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Arsenal to beat Chelsea at 2.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CheArs
ASTON VILLA V MANCHESTER UNITED
2pm We have three games kicking off at 2pm, and we start with Aston Villa hosting Manchester United. It’s been a rollercoaster few weeks for Aston Villa; they lost 3-0 to Fulham and sacked Steven Gerrard, their players put in their best performance of the season to beat Brentford 4-0 and then they got hammered 4-0 by Newcastle after the appointment of Unai Emery. What can we expect here? Perhaps the key point of those results were two came away from home and the 4-0 win came at home. Villa have definitely looked a lot more comfortable at home this season – even in the 2-0 loss to Chelsea here they finished the game with an xG of 2.65 which was their highest of the season at the time. It was almost ironic that Gerrard came under such intense pressure after their best performance of the season really but after the Fulham loss the decision was made. It will be interesting to see what type of performance we get from Villa here as Emery settles in – you have to say it was a brilliant success to get him here, and it’s probably a step down from Villarreal but that’s the pull of the Premier League at the moment for you. Manchester United recorded an excellent 1-0 win away to Real Sociedad on Thursday in the Europa League, but it wasn’t enough to top the Group. I have to say they do look very solid at the moment, there’s a lot of very good signs from the manager.
When clicking into the market, I felt that if I saw United at odds on here I’d be tempted to lay them. I know that they have been playing good football this season, but I don’t think they are at the stage yet where they should be going off at odds on for games like this. Although that was my view, I was still surprised to see them trading as big as 2.2. I had around 2.06 to 2.1 in my head as the price I was expecting to see, and I feel the 2.2 is worth backing here. United have still got a lot of work to do, but this Villa side has been very average for a while now. Gerrard came in and they rode that good momentum, but if you looked at their xG figures they were always quite average. They really struggle to create chances, and they concede too many sloppy goals. United are playing with a new found confidence under ten Hag, and I can see them grinding out another win here. A few more wins and United will be in a fantastic position to break back into the Top Four.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Manchester United to beat Aston Villa at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstMun
SOUTHAMPTON V NEWCASTLE
2pm This fixture might get “lost” amongst all the big games today, but it’s the most important fixture for me because it’s my biggest bet of the day. I feel Newcastle look massive here at 1.98, and I’m very happy to have a Max Bet on them. We landed a nice Max Bet on Newcastle recently, and we can do the same here. Newcastle have been absolutely superb this season, and even though they started the weekend sitting in the top four you can make the case that they should be even higher. They have been unlucky at times, and could easily have more points. For example they had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth while having an xG of 1.76 and then a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace with a whopping xG of 4.17. It’s not like all their good performances are coming at home either – they beat Spurs in their last away game, and picked up a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford in the game before that. They’ve actually had a tough away fixture list so far this season – they’ve played Brighton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Spurs. They hammered Fulham 4-1 and then should have beat Wolves – that game finished 1-1 but Newcastle had an xG of 2.10. I think everything points to a Newcastle win here, and I would have them much shorter.
This Southampton side look there for the taking. They are really struggling to create chances and score goals this season. They are scoring less than one goal per game at the moment, and you very rarely see them with an xG of 2.0 or over. They picked up a draw in their last home game against Arsenal but you have to say they were a little lucky there – Arsenal created an xG of nearly three times what Southampton managed. Prior to that they drew 1-1 here with West Ham, but xG the Hammers should have won finishing the game with an xG of 2.05. Surely Southampton’s luck at home has to run out, and against a Newcastle side creating so much I can only see one winner here. Newcastle have been banging in the goals for fun lately, but their xG figures are even more impressive. They are creating over 2.0+ as an average this season which is top class stuff. It’s been such a dramatic improvement this season I feel the markets haven’t adjusted for how good Newcastle are, and I’m very happy to get 1.98 here.
The Striker Says:
Five points win Newcastle to beat Southampton at 1.98 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouNew
WEST HAM V CRYSTAL PALACE
2pm We finish the 2pm games with West Ham hosting Crystal Palace, and this should be a very competitive affair. This is one of those games that both sides will look at and think it’s a great chance to collect three points. West Ham would have felt unlucky to lose 1-0 to Manchester United last weekend, it was a very close game and United just grinded out a win thanks to a brilliant goalkeeping performance. Since losing their two opening home games of the season 2-0 to Manchester City and Brighton, the Hammers are unbeaten here and have put three wins together since drawing 1-1 with Spurs. Their performances have definitely improved in recent weeks after a very slow start to the season – they start this game sitting behind Crystal Palace in the table, but you have to say right now West Ham have played better overall. Even in the 1-0 loss to Liverpool at Anfield, they finished the game with an xG of 2.63 and that was a very impressive display – even though I accept Liverpool have been conceding a host of chances this season! Palace were able to grind out a 1-0 win last weekend against Southampton, but it was a low quality game and to be honest the performance from Palace was poor when you consider where Southampton are in the table.
When you look at the xG figures it’s clear to see Palace are struggling this season. They are getting results so you can’t knock that, but they aren’t playing fluid football. Their xG figures away from home this season currently read (latest first); 0.80, 0.34, 1.03, 0.62 and 1.52. Their biggest figure came an Anfield – again highlighting that Liverpool are conceding a host of chances this season! Those figures make for poor reading however, and it’s hard to see them creating more than West Ham here. West Ham come into the game in good form too – they have been creating a lot over the last few weeks and I’m very happy to take the 1.99 on West Ham here. Just marginally odds on by one tick, but I would have them sitting in the high 1.8’s with home advantage against a very average Palace side going forward. This game seems there for the taking for the home side.
The Striker Says:
Three points win West Ham to beat Crystal Palace at 1.99 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/WesCry
TOTTENHAM V LIVERPOOL
4.30pm We started the day with a cracker, and we finish with a cracker too! Spurs host Liverpool in the prime Sunday TV slot, and what an intriguing game we have on our hands here. Both sides recorded wins midweek in the Champions League – Spurs needed to dig deep to beat Marseille away from home after being 1-0 down at half-time, while Liverpool beat Napoli at Anfield but Napoli only had to avoid getting beaten 4-0 or worse to top the group. While Napoli would have went to Anfield to defend and try keep the game as quiet as possible, it was a very good sign for Liverpool that they only conceded an xG of 0.39 given how poor at the back they have been this season. In their recent Premier League games they have been giving away chances for fun – they have conceded xG figures of 1.74 v Leeds, 2.44 v Nottingham Forest and 2.63 v West Ham. I think the shocking thing about Liverpool this season is how poor they have been against average sides – the sides you would expect them to beat. They are still creating a lot of chances up front, which obviously makes their games very entertaining but I just feel you couldn’t back them with confidence at the moment because they have been so poor at the back. They have looked all over the place at times – it’s probably highlighted that the squad is a little thin too because Klopp seems to have no options to fix things.
With Liverpool having so many issues at the back, this is a great chance for Spurs to claim a big win. They have lost out in the big games recently against Arsenal and Manchester United, then added a loss to Newcastle here afterwards. They didn’t exactly “settle the nerves” the way they beat Bournemouth last weekend, but credit to them for coming back from 2-0 down. While I wouldn’t fully trust this Spurs side, I have to say the 2.24 on Liverpool jumps off the page as a good lay. I fully expect Spurs to make the game closer than those odds suggest, especially with Liverpool conceding so many chances at the back. However, Over 2.5 goals looks cracking value here at 1.74. Spurs have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals lately, and surely we’re going to get a very end-to-end and open game here with plenty of mistakes along the way. I couldn’t put anyone off the Liverpool lay, but Over 2.5 goals stands out as the best option and value bet here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotLiv