PREMIER LEAGUE THURSDAY: The Striker previews Thursday’s Premier League game between EVERTON v NEWCASTLE with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
EVERTON V NEWCASTLE
7.45pm Most of the football world will be watching the second legs of the Last 16 in the Europa League tonight, we have a massive game in the Premier League too as Everton host Newcastle. We have a reasonably open market on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, but Everton are still clear favourites at 2.42. We’re going to have a lot of different opinions on the Everton price here because they come into the game in such good form, and I’m in the laying camp here. I would have a much more open market here with the sides even closer together in the betting.
Newcastle’s unbeaten run came to an end at the weekend against Chelsea, but they made Chelsea work hard for their 1-0 win and kept them down to an xG of 1.14. That was a decent performance as they wouldn’t have been expected to pick up anything away to Chelsea. When you look at the Everton fixtures coming up, I don’t think it’s being too dramatic to call this a must win game. After the results the weekend, Watford joined Everton on 22 points and Everton are sitting outside the relegation zone solely on goal difference. They do have three games in hand on Brentford, Leeds and Watford, but Brentford and Leeds are moving away from them with each week. Everton are in big trouble.
Obviously the three games in hand are very important, but after Everton play in the FA Cup at the weekend they have to play West Ham, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Leicester and Arsenal. Their games with Watford, Crystal Palace and Brentford will decide their faith, but they have an incredibly tough run of fixtures after the International break and they’re going to find themselves under immense pressure.
When you look at this fixture, you think they basically have to win. They won’t be expected to get anything from the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea etc so games at home against the likes of Newcastle become so important. With that being said, I just can’t have them at 2.42 here. Just because it’s an important game for Everton doesn’t mean they should be this short and Newcastle have been playing very well lately. Everton were poor again at home to Wolves at the weekend – they created an xG of just 0.38 and that followed on from only 0.22 against Spurs.
Everton have huge issues at the back, but it seems that they aren’t creating any chances either now. They have improved since Frank Lampard came in and that’s a huge negative too. I feel this game will be very close, and it’s going to be a grind for both sides. It’s hard to see a side winning by two or more goals, it’s likely to be a very close 1-0 for example, but the 2.42 on Everton is just too short. I’d have the sides closer to 2.84 together with the draw taking up the slack – you could even argue we could have 3.0 on each outcome here in my opinion! It’s an Everton lay for me though sending them into further trouble.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Everton to beat Newcastle at 2.42 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQEvenwc
● Everton are winless in their last three home league games against Newcastle (D2 L1), losing this exact fixture 2-0 last season. They’ve not lost consecutive league games at Goodison Park against them since a run of three between 1958 and 1960.
● Newcastle have won each of their last three league games against Everton, last winning four in a row against them between 1989 and 1995.
● In Premier League games played on Thursdays, Everton have a win rate of 18% (2/11), average 1 point-per-game and an average of 0.7 goals-per-game, all their lowest ratios on a specific day of the week in the competition. However, the Toffees are unbeaten in their last six Thursday league games (W2 D4).
● Everton have lost their last four Premier League games, conceding nine goals while scoring none in return. The Toffees last lost more consecutively between August and October 2005 – a run of six in which they also failed to score a single goal.
● Everton have lost 16 of their 26 Premier League games this season, with the Toffees last losing more in a single campaign in 2003-04 (17). Meanwhile, their loss rate of 62% is their highest in any league campaign in their history.
● Newcastle’s 1-0 loss at Chelsea last time out ended a nine-game unbeaten run in the Premier League for the Magpies (W6 D3). This will be the first time in the Premier League this season (excluding MD1) that Newcastle are facing a side lower than themselves in the table.
● Everton are averaging 2.8 shots on target per game in the Premier League under Frank Lampard, compared to 4 per game before he arrived this term. 59% of the Toffees league shots on target under Lampard (10/17) all came in one game, their 3-0 victory over Leeds last month.
● Newcastle’s Ryan Fraser has scored more Premier League goals against Everton than he has any other side in the competition (4). The Scotsman scored Newcastle’s second – and ultimately, decisive – goal against the Toffees in their 3-1 victory in the reverse fixture.
● Everton striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored more Premier League goals against Newcastle than he has against any other side in the competition, with all five of his goals against the Magpies coming in his last five appearances against them.
● Everton boss Frank Lampard has lost just one of his 11 Premier League home games against fellow English managers (W8 D2), though that loss did come against Newcastle’s Eddie Howe – Chelsea 0-1 Bournemouth in December 2019.