THE STRIKER: previews the Premier League game on Thursday between LIVERPOOL v BURNLEY with extended stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
LIVERPOOL V BURNLEY
8pm We finish the midweek round of fixtures with a massive game for Liverpool as the host Burnley. I’m don’t feel I’m being dramatic when I say that they must win, even this early in the season after their recent run has left them in a poor position as they try to retain their title. The market is expecting an easy win, with Jurgen Klopp’s men trading 1.21 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange at the time of writing.
After looking like they could run away with the title again, Liverpool have slipped down to fourth after a string of disappointing results. They have come against weaker sides too, so even though we might look at this fixture and say “it’s only Burnley” – let’s not forget Liverpool have failed to beat Southampton, Newcastle, West Brom, Fulham and Brighton since Christmas. They haven’t been desperately unlucky too – they were unlucky to lose to Southampton, but Brighton drew 1-1 with an xG of 2.22 to 0.32. Figures like that have been unheard of with this Liverpool side.
The 0-0 draw with Manchester United was very fair I thought, but for a side who have struggled to score lately perhaps Burnley are an awkward side to beat. There’s no doubting Burnley will play a defensive game here and try to frustrate Liverpool. They have had a good run of results lately to get out of the relegation zone; however they were just that – a good run of results. The performances haven’t changed much, and they were totally outplayed by West Ham at the weekend.
I think Liverpool will get the job done here in the end for a much needed three points, but I can see things being reasonably difficult and 1.21 looking a little short. Over 2.5 goals looks short to me at 1.6 – I can see this being a low scoring affair, with possibly a 1-0 or 2-0 win for Liverpool. It’s 1.68 for both teams not to score, but given Liverpool haven’t been creating a lot lately I’d rather back under 2.5 goals at the value price of 2.58.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.58 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivbrn
- Liverpool have lost just one of their last 17 home league games against Burnley (W11 D5), with that defeat coming back in September 1974 (0-1).
- Burnley have taken just five points from a possible 36 in Premier League games against Liverpool (W1 D2 L9), though the Clarets were the only visiting team to leave Anfield with a point last term.
- Burnley have beaten all four different teams they’ve faced as reigning champions in the Premier League, beating Man Utd in 2009-10, Man City in 2014-15, Leicester in 2016-17 and Chelsea in 2017-18. Indeed, the Clarets also beat Liverpool in the last season they faced the Reds as the reigning top-flight champion (2-1 in 1973-74).
- Liverpool have failed to score in their last three Premier League games, last failing in four in a row when failing to score in their last five games in the 1999-00 season. Only seven reigning top-flight champions have gone four without a goal, most recently Leicester in 2016-17 (six), with four of those being Liverpool in 1901-02, 1906-07, 1947-48 and 1984-85.
- Since scoring with seven of their 14 shots against Crystal Palace (50%), Liverpool have scored just one goal from 62 shots in their last four Premier League games, a conversion rate of 1.6%.
- Burnley have failed to score in six of their last seven away Premier League games, with their only goal in this run an own goal from Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Indeed, no side has failed to score in more different away Premier League games this season than the Clarets (6).
- Burnley’s last four Premier League games have all ended 1-0, though the Clarets have won just one of those. Those three defeats mean that losing 0-1 is now Burnley’s most common scoreline in Premier League history (28 games).
- Both Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané have netted four goals in their last four Premier League appearances for Liverpool against Burnley.
- Burnley striker Chris Wood has only played more games (7) and minutes (435) against Southampton without scoring in the Premier League than he has versus Liverpool (6 games, 400 minutes).
- Mohamed Salah has failed to score in any of his last four Premier League games for Liverpool, with his current drought lasting 365 minutes. Only once has he gone longer without a goal for the Reds (six games between February-March 2019).
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