THE STRIKER: previews Thursday’s Premier League games between ASTON VILLA V EVERTON and MANCHESTER UNTED V LIVERPOOL with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
ASTON VILLA V EVERTON
6pm We have an absolutely fascinating evening in the Premier League on Thursday, and we have two cracking markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We kick off the evening with Aston Villa hosting Everton as the Toffees aim to finish the season strongly. They have a massive amount of competition for the European spots, but I feel they have a strong chance of getting into a Europe League spot, a win tonight would see them go level on points with West Ham having played the same number of games – obviously a lot would depend on the Liverpool result later too, but this is another excellent chance for Everton. The problem is they have blown a lot of chances this season – at times you could have even fancied them for the Champions League spots looking at the table and games in hand but the fluffed their lines.
Everton’s win over West Ham last weekend was massive for them, and also a big blow for West Ham, but they have to continue winning until the end of the season and see where they stand. This is actually a little unusual in the sense that the sides played already this month – Aston Villa came out on top 2-1 and it was hard to argue with the score line looking at the xG figures. Since then Villa have lost to United, but United have been in excellent form. There’s no doubt Villa haven’t finished the season as strongly as they started it, Grealish is a big loss but it’s hard to see why Everton are clear favourites here after the recent game between the sides. I expect another very close game here and it’s nice to have the draw on side with an Everton lay too.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Everton to beat Aston Villa at 2.62 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQasteve
● Following their 2-1 win against them at the start of the month, Aston Villa are looking to do the league double over Everton for the first time since the 2000-01 campaign.
● Everton have won three of their last five away league games against Aston Villa (L2), as many as they had in their previous 29 visits to Villa Park (D12 L14). They did lose this exact fixture 2-0 last season, however.
● Aston Villa beat Everton 2-1 on May 1st – victory here will be the second shortest gap between one side beating another in Premier League history (12 days), after Arsenal beat Bolton twice in the space of three days in January 2010.
● Aston Villa have won more Premier League games (20) and scored more Premier League goals (73) against Everton than they have vs any other side in the competition.
● Everton have won six of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Aston Villa (D2 L3), as many as they had in their previous 39 against them in the competition (D16 L17).
● This will be the 206th league meeting between Aston Villa and Everton (all in the top-flight), extending it’s record as the most played match in English league history.
● Aston Villa are winless in their six midweek Premier League matches this season (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), drawing one and losing the last five. Their last such victory came at home against Arsenal in July 2020.
● Everton have won their last five away midweek Premier League games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), last losing at Manchester City on New Year’s Day 2020.
● Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti has won just one of his six Premier League games against Aston Villa (D3 L2) – against no side does he have a lower win rate in the competition (17%, min. 5 meetings).
● Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins opened the scoring against Everton in the reverse fixture, while he also netted in both games against Liverpool this season. Only four players have ever scored home and away against both Merseyside clubs in a single Premier League campaign – Les Ferdinand (1995-96), Olivier Giroud (2014-15), Jamie Vardy (2017-18) and Harry Kane (2017-18).
MANCHESTER UNTED V LIVERPOOL
8.15pm No doubt the highlight of the night! It’s also the highlight of Manchester United’s week, as they opted to rest a number of players. United can do what they want in fairness as they have the Top Four spot locked in, but keeping Liverpool out compared to Leicester is probably more attractive to them – especially the fans! United also have a Europa League Final to look forward too, but it’s hard to see anything other than a very strong side here. Liverpool would have dearly loved United to beat Leicester on Tuesday as it would have opened up the Top Four for them, but now that looks very difficult – they just have to keep winning and hope Leicester slip up against Arsenal and Chelsea over the next week. The recent games between these two have been pretty boring if we’re being honest – with Liverpool needing to win hopefully we can see more fireworks than usual and an open game. Usually it’s 0-0 or 1-1, but we did have a 3-2 thriller in January!
There’s no doubt that Liverpool have been poor this season. Their performances have been very up and down – even recently they drew 1-1 with Newcastle and Leeds, and they were lucky to draw against Leeds and unlucky to draw with Newcastle. It has just been one of those seasons for Klopp – their home performances were very poor against average sides and they didn’t create much. I know they need to win here and United don’t, but United have been finishing the season pretty strongly. They were poor against Leicester, but after so many changes that would have been expected, I would expect a much stronger United line-up tonight and a better performance. I would also expect a very close game, and Liverpool look a good value lay at 2.46. They haven’t played well enough to justify that price, especially given United have been creating a lot of chances lately.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Liverpool to beat Manchester United at 2.46 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQmunlvr
● Manchester United have lost just one of their last 15 home games against Liverpool in all competitions (W10 D4), and are unbeaten in their last eight since a 0-3 loss in March 2014.
● Liverpool haven’t lost consecutive games against Man Utd in all competitions since a run of four between 2014/2016, with the Reds losing 3-2 at Old Trafford in the FA Cup in January.
● Manchester United have avoided defeat in both meetings with Liverpool in all competitions this season (W1 D1) – the last time they faced Liverpool as many as three times in a season without losing any was in 1998-99 (W2 D1), with this the eighth campaign they’ve met more than twice since then.
● In the Premier League, Manchester United have won just one of their last nine meetings with Liverpool (D6 L2), and are winless in five against the Reds (D3 L2). They last had a longer winless run against Liverpool in the top-flight between December 1989 and October 1992 (7 games).
● Manchester United have lost just one of their 13 Premier League games played on a Thursday (W8 D4), going down 1-3 at Middlesbrough in December 2002.
● Liverpool have won just two of their six midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games this season (D1 L3), with both of those victories coming against Tottenham. The Reds have failed to score in the four games they didn’t win.
● Liverpool have won five of their last seven away league games (D1 L1), more than they had in their previous 15 on the road (W4 D6 L5).
● Liverpool boss Jürgen Klopp has managed away at Man Utd without ever winning more times than any other opponent in his managerial career (6 – D4 L2).
● Marcus Rashford has been involved in five goals in his last four games in all competitions for Man Utd against Liverpool at Old Trafford, scoring four and assisting one.
● Mohamed Salah scored twice in Liverpool’s 2-3 defeat at Manchester United in the FA Cup this season. The only Liverpool player to score away against Man Utd in two different games in a season was 100 years ago – Harry Chambers in 1920-21.