PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Thursday’s Premier League games – both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats. It’s LIVERPOOL v LEICESTER and WOLVES v ARSENAL.
LIVERPOOL V LEICESTER
7.45pm We have two superb fixtures to finish the midweek Premier League fixtures on Thursday, and we start the evening on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Liverpool hosing Leicester. When you click into the market here, you can’t help but feel it’s a sign of just how poor Leicester have been this season to see Liverpool trading as short as 1.29. Liverpool have been fantastic this season, but they haven’t been that short against Leicester for a while given Leicester have been fighting for a Top Four place for the last two seasons. I still believe Brendan Rodgers would have been under a lot more pressure from the media if they weren’t so focused on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at the time. Leicester won’t be happy sitting in mid-table, but the xG table actually puts them lower. At the start of the week the xG table put them down in 16th which highlights just how poor their performances have been this season. They have given away a host of chances, conceding an average xG of 2.0 per Premier League game. You won’t win many games conceding two goals!
When you compare that to the fact that Liverpool have been creating an average xG of 2.7 going forward this season, then Leicester have a very difficult night ahead of them! Liverpool will be glad the African Cup of Nations is over, with their two main stars making the final – it will be good to have them back even though their title chances look very slim at best now. The 1.29 on Liverpool looks worthy of including in any BETDAQ Multiple this evening, but I’m happy to look to the side markets for my best bet. Given all the problems Leicester have had at the back this season, I can only see goals here. The question is a choice between Liverpool on the handicap and the goals market. The market is expecting goals too however with over 2.5 goals as short as 1.37 so Liverpool to cover the handicap stands out here, -1.5 goals is trading 1.76 which looks cracking value.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Leicester at 1.76 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivlei
● Liverpool have lost their last two Premier League games against Leicester, last losing three top-flight games in a row against the Foxes back in November 1963.
● Leicester are looking to complete the league double over Liverpool for the first time since the 1998-99 season under Martin O’Neill, with their win at Anfield that season coming thanks to a late winner from Ian Marshall.
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 14 Premier League games at Anfield (W10 D4) and have won their last five in a row, their best home winning run since an eight-game streak between July and December 2020.
● Leicester have taken the lead but failed to win in their last two Premier League games (D1 L1) – the Foxes last went ahead but didn’t win in three consecutive games back in December 2017, with the third of those games a 2-1 defeat at Anfield versus Liverpool, which remains the only time in their last 10 league visits there that they have gone ahead.
● Against no side has Liverpool’s Jürgen Klopp lost more Premier League games than he has against Leicester (4, level with Man City). The Foxes are looking to become the first team since Pep Guardiola’s Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund in 2014-15 to beat a Klopp side twice in a league season.
● Liverpool have caught their opponents offside 90 times in 22 games in the Premier League this season, 41 times more than any other side. Opponents against Liverpool are averaging 4.1 offsides per game this season, the highest per-game tally in a season since Man City in 2007-08 (opponents offside 168 times in 38 games, 4.4 per game).
● Following a 1-0 win earlier this season, Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers is looking to become only the second former Liverpool manager in history to complete a league double over the Reds after leaving the club, after Kenny Dalglish in 1993-94 with Blackburn.
● Since a run of scoring seven goals from 16 shots (44%) in five consecutive Premier League matches against Liverpool in 2016 and 2017, Jamie Vardy has only scored one goal from 10 shots (10%) in his last six Premier League games against the Reds. However, Vardy is still the joint-top scorer against top-flight teams managed by Jürgen Klopp with eight, level with Claudio Pizarro and Son Heung-Min.
● Liverpool left-back Andrew Robertson has seven assists in his last eight Premier League appearances, including four in his last three. His two assists against Crystal Palace took him to 47 overall in the Premier League, the joint-most of any Scotsman alongside Gary McAllister, although he’s reached that total in 103 fewer games than McAllister did.
● Leicester’s Patson Daka has been directly involved in seven goals in just nine Premier League appearances so far (4 goals, 3 assists), averaging a goal or assist every 64 minutes. No Foxes player has ever been involved in more than seven goals in their first 10 Premier League games for the club (also seven for Mark Robins in 1995, Les Ferdinand in 2003 and Islam Slimani in 2016).
WOLVES V ARSENAL
7.45pm We finish the midweek round of Premier League fixtures with Wolves hosting Arsenal, and this is another very interesting fixture. It’s a fantastic week of games to be fair with very interesting betting heats! This is another one, with the age old question of can you trust Arsenal away from home? Wolves would have been bitterly disappointed to lose to Norwich at the weekend in the FA Cup, and the winter break didn’t really come at a good time for them as they went into it with four wins in a row. Wolves tend to have to grind out their wins as they don’t do anything flashy – they keep games very tight and give away very few chances which makes me feel that they will get a result here. We all know how dodgy Arsenal are away from home, and despite having some good momentum at times this season they seem to have hit another bump in the road lately. It’s been five games without a win, and although they have had to play Manchester City and Liverpool twice in that run, they lost to Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup and then had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Burnley. After such a good run that must have filled them with confidence, they have crashed back down to earth pretty quickly. As always, things change quickly at Arsenal!
Despite all the ups-and-downs from an Arsenal point of view this season, they still have a chance of the Top Four. Manchester United have been so poor this season the door is definitely open for that fourth spot, with Spurs looking in the best spot with their games in hand. If Arsenal are going to have any chance of the Top Four they have to win games like this, but I’m happy to lay them at 2.28. As I said above, I just can’t see Arsenal being able to grind out a win here. Wolves will likely work harder and be most solid at the back – we could easily see a pretty boring 0-0 here given the likely tactics from Wolves but they look in good form coming into this game and they are worth supporting for a result. Arsenal at these odds away from home will always be a tempting lay, and I’m happy to get involved here – it seems a good time for this fixture for Wolves despite their FA Cup loss the weekend.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Arsenal to beat Wolves at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWolars
● After losing each of their first four Premier League games against Arsenal at Molineux, Wolves have won two of their last three (L1), winning 3-1 in 2018-19 and 2-1 last season.
● Arsenal are looking to avoid losing back-to-back away league matches against Wolves for the first time since February 1975, following their 2-1 defeat last season.
● Arsenal have scored in each of their last 27 games against Wolves in all competitions, since a 1-0 home loss in February 1979. It’s the Gunners’ second longest current scoring streak against a specific opponent, after a 32-game ongoing run against West Bromwich Albion.
● Following victories in their first three league matches in 2022 against Man Utd, Southampton and Brentford, Wolves are looking to win four consecutive top-flight matches for the first time since January 1972.
● Wolves have won their first three Premier League games in 2022, last winning their opening four top-flight matches in a year back in 1938, going on to finish runners-up by a point behind Arsenal at the end of that season.
● Arsenal have failed to score in each of their last four games in all competitions; they’ve not gone five without a goal since March 1990 under George Graham.
● Although they’ve only netted one goal in their last two league games, both at the Emirates, Arsenal ended 2021 with nine goals across two away games, a 4-1 win over Leeds and 5-0 victory at Norwich. The Gunners last scored four or more times in three consecutive away league games between April and September 1930 (four in a row).
● Premier League matches involving Wolves have seen the fewest shots of any side so far this season (462); Wolves had 10+ shots in their first five matches this season (82 in total, 16.4 per game) but have only reached double figures for shots in four of their 16 games since, averaging exactly half their shots per game ratio of those first five games (131 in total, 8.2 per game).
● In their last Premier League game against Brentford, João Moutinho became the oldest player to score and assist in a Premier League match for Wolves (35 years, 136 days), with Alex Rae the previous oldest (34y 99d vs Blackburn in 2004). Moutinho has two goals in his last three league games, as many as in his previous 121 appearances combined.
● Emile Smith Rowe has scored in his last three away Premier League appearances for Arsenal, scoring against Man Utd, Leeds and Norwich. The last Gunners player to score in four in a row away from home was Olivier Giroud in November 2015.