CARABAO CUP: The Striker looks ahead to the Carabao Cup semi-final between NEWCASTLE v SOUTHAMPTON with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NEWCASTLE V SOUTHAMPTON
8pm It’s crunch time in the Carabao Cup Semi-Finals this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as we have the second leg ties to enjoy! We start on Tuesday night with Newcastle hosting Southampton, and this definitely the more interesting tie because Manchester United have a three goal advantage in the other second leg. Southampton still face a huge task here because they are 1-0 down from the first leg, and this time Newcastle have home advantage.
Both sides are having very different seasons in the Premier League with Newcastle flying high in third and Southampton sitting rock bottom. The Saints having been having a good Cup run though, and let’s not forget they knocked Manchester City out of this competition. They continued their run in the FA Cup at the weekend with a 2-1 win over Blackpool. Obviously that was against non Premier League opposition, but you’d have to ask would Southampton have preferred their wins against Crystal Palace and Manchester City come in the Premier League given all the money involved!
We still have a long way to go in the season, and Southampton are well within touch of safety if they can go on a decent run. Newcastle are having a wonderful season, and they were comfortably the better side in the first leg. With home advantage now, you’d expect improvement on top of that. It’s extremely hard to see Southampton getting through, probably their best hope is win the game over 90 minutes by one goal and go from there. Southampton are only averaging an xG of 1.1 per Premier League game this season going forward, while they are conceding an average of 1.6.
Even at that average of 1.1 which is low, they haven’t been taking all those chances. They are scoring less than a goal a game at the moment. Compare those figures to Newcastle – not only are they sitting in the Top Four but they fully deserve to be their too. They are creating an average xG of 2.0 going forward and only conceding what Southampton are creating at 1.1. We’ll definitely need some magic of the Cup to see Southampton winning here!
Newcastle come into the game as the heavy odds on favourites. They are currently trading 1.5 at the time of writing, and to be honest I felt they would be a little shorter. Not only did Newcastle win the first leg, but they beat Southampton 4-1 earlier in the Premier League season too. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes here, because we have to remember that Newcastle don’t need to win – a draw would be absolutely fine – however, I fully expect Newcastle to outclass this Sunderland side again. Because Southampton have to attack being a goal down, Over 2.5 goals is definitely an option at 2.04, but I believe the Newcastle bet offers more value.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Newcastle to beat Southampton at 1.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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