TUESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews the four Premier League fixture on Tuesday finishing off with LEICESTER v LIVERPOOL at 8pm. All with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
CRYSTAL PALACE V NORWICH
3pm The Premier League fixtures just keep coming! It may not be as busy as it should have been with the Covid19 situation at the moment, but we have plenty of games to enjoy. Unfortunately, we have lost Arsenal v Wolves and Leeds v Aston Villa for today and we lost some Boxing Day fixtures too. It’s unfortunate to lose these games, but it’s also good that we still have games to enjoy, and I feel the league is just doing the best it can given the circumstances. It is a shame to lose the TV games at 12-30pm and 5-30pm today, but we go straight into the action at 3pm on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with Crystal Palace hosting Norwich. Crystal Palace got back into action on Boxing Day after missing a few of their fixtures and it was the same situation for Norwich hosting Arsenal – unfortunately for both sides they were hammered, with Crystal Palace losing 3-0 to Spurs and Norwich losing 5-0 to Arsenal. As I type, I’m not too sure this fixture is 100% to go ahead as there were rumours on Twitter about the Spurs v Crystal Palace game.
After a brief run of some good results, Norwich have run into some of the better sides and lost four in a row. Although they put some wins together, I noted at the time that their xG figures didn’t really improve and it was just a good run of luck rather than performances. As I have said before, even when you put some wins together when you’re at the bottom of the table, it isn’t long before you bump into a side in the Top Six and it breaks your momentum. Norwich are still bottom of the table, and they won’t be staying up this season. Palace are odds on favourites here, and to be honest they should win. Nothing went right on Boxing Day against Spurs, you might blame the red card for Zaha but they were 2-0 down by then anyway. This is a game for small stakes given the Covid19 situation in my opinion, and a small bet on Palace looks the value call. Norwich look so average this season, and morale must be at an all time low after the Arsenal game. It’s a good time to be against Norwich.
The Striker Says:
One point win Crystal Palace to beat Norwich at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCrynor
● Crystal Palace have won three of their last four Premier League games against Norwich (D1), as many as they had in their previous 20 top-flight meetings with the Canaries (D7 L10).
● After winning five consecutive away league games against Crystal Palace between 1991 and 1996, Norwich are winless in their last 16 visits to Selhurst Park against the Eagles (D5 L11).
● Crystal Palace haven’t won their final league game in any of the last nine calendar years (D7 L2), since beating Millwall 1-0 in 2011. As a Premier League side, they haven’t won their final league game in a calendar year since 1992 against Middlesbrough (D8 L3 since).
● Norwich have drawn their final league game in four of the last five calendar years (L1), with their last such victory coming in 2015 against Aston Villa.
● Norwich have won just one of their last 27 Premier League games in London, drawing six and losing 20. However, that victory did come at Brentford this season, with the Canaries last winning multiple top-flight games in the capital in a single season in 2011-12 (vs QPR and Tottenham).
● Crystal Palace have lost just one of their last nine Premier League home games against promoted sides (W5 D3), going down 1-0 against Sheffield United in February 2020. The Eagles have conceded just two goals in this run, keeping seven clean sheets in the process.
● Norwich have failed to score in 12 different Premier League games this season, and have netted just eight goals in their 18 games so far. In English top-flight history, only Leicester City in 1977-78 (7) have scored fewer goals after 18 matches in a single campaign.
● After drawing 0-0 with Brentford in their first home Premier League game this season, Crystal Palace have scored in each of their last eight at Selhurst Park. It’s their longest ever scoring streak in Premier League home games, with the Eagles last scoring in more consecutively in the top-flight in October 1990 (12).
● Over their last two Premier League campaigns (2019-20 and 2021-22), Norwich have scored just 10 goals in 27 away games, with the Canaries failing to score on 19 different occasions on the road in that time.
● Since the start of the 2014-15 season, Crystal Palace have a 32.3% win rate in the Premier League when Wilfried Zaha plays, compared to just 22.2% without the Ivorian. In fact, Palace have only won three of their last 24 Premier League matches that Zaha hasn’t played (D3 L18).
SOUTHAMPTON V TOTTENHAM
3pm This looks the pick of the 3pm games today! Both sides scored three goals on Boxing Day, with Southampton beating West Ham 3-2 and Spurs putting Crystal Palace to the sword with a comfortable 3-0 win. I have to say Conte has Spurs looking much better – they have a much better shape about them and while they have yet to be tested away from home, the early signs look very promising for Spurs fans. Of course, Spurs fans have been here before multiple times with “early promise” only for it to all end in tears! It’s actually remarkable the run of home games Spurs have had. They’ve had five in a row at home in the Premier League, and they played at home in the Europa Conference League too – Conte had just taken over when they had their last away game against Everton which ended with a very boring 0-0 draw. Although most casual football fans will expect Spurs to win here, this is a tricky away tie and Southampton come into the game in decent form too. They did very well to beat West Ham on Boxing Day – the game could have gone either way but Southampton grinded it out. While with the break because of Covid19 you have to go back to early December for Southampton’s last two home games, they created an xG of 1.64 against Brighton and 2.16 against Leicester in two draws.
The big question here is, can Spurs grind out a tight away win if things go against them? Southampton will no doubt make this game tough, and Spurs will be out of their recent comfort zone. I have been very impressed with Spurs, especially the performance against Liverpool which was their best of the season to date. They had to settle for a 2-2 draw, but their created an xG of over double what Liverpool achieved in a game they should have won. I still have question marks about them away from home however, and I’m happy to miss out on backing them at 2.16 here and see how they get on. Although both sides scored plenty the weekend, I expect this game to be close and we won’t see many goals. I would expect Conte to have plenty of focus on being strong at the back here, and we saw a very boring 0-0 with Everton. Under 2.5 goals looks worth backing at 2.02 here – I would have it odds on. You have to grind out wins against Southampton, and I can’t see many chances in this game.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.02 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSoutot
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2012, against no side have Southampton lost more games in the competition than they have vs Tottenham (13).
● Spurs have lost two of their last three Premier League away games against Southampton, after a six-game unbeaten run at St Mary’s in the competition (W4 D2). They did win this exact fixture 5-2 last season, however.
● Southampton haven’t won their final league game in any of the last 10 calendar years (D5 L5), since beating Huddersfield 4-1 in League One in 2010.
● Spurs have lost their final league game in just one of the last 12 calendar years (W7 D4), losing 3-1 at home to Wolves in 2018. Spurs are winless in their last three such games (D2 L1), though their last two wins in these matches both came against Southampton (4-1 in 2016, 5-2 in 2017).
● Southampton have lost just once at home in the Premier League this season (W2 D5), and are unbeaten in their last five at St Mary’s (W2 D3). They last had a longer unbeaten home run in the competition between March and October 2016 (9 games).
● Tottenham Hotspur have failed to score in either of their last two away Premier League games, managing just 15 shots combined in those games. They haven’t gone three without a goal on the road since March 2014 under Tim Sherwood.
● This is Tottenham’s first Premier League away game in 51 days, since a 0-0 draw at Everton on 7th November. Excluding the 2019-20 season (with the lockdown enforced break), it’s the longest gap any side has had between away games in a single campaign in the competition.
● Tottenham are unbeaten in their six Premier League games under Antonio Conte (W4 D2), and he could become the first manager in the club’s history to go without defeat in their first seven league games in charge of the club.
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has been involved in 16 goals in 11 Premier League starts against Southampton (10 goals, 6 assists). Kane had a hand in all five of Spurs’ goals in their 5-2 win at St Mary’s last season, scoring one and assisting each of Son Heung-min’s four strikes.
● Son Heung-min has been involved in 12 goals in 11 Premier League games for Spurs against Southampton (9 goals, 3 assists), more than he has versus any other side in the competition.
WATFORD V WEST HAM
3pm We end the 3pm games with Watford hosting West Ham in a massive game for both sides. Watford lost their Boxing Day fixture due to Covid19, and it’s been a very tough time for the club as they haven’t played since the 10th of December. They will be hoping this fixture goes ahead. Thankfully for them, Newcastle and Norwich haven’t been able to close the gap with a string of losses and Burnley have actually played less than Watford. Burnley are in the bottom three, but they have a game in hand over Watford now and they are just two points behind Watford. In better news for Watford, Leeds and Everton haven’t gone anywhere either, and Watford have two games in hand on Leeds with two games in hand, and they are six points behind Everton with a game in hand. If they could win their games in hand or even pick up some draws, Leeds would be under immense pressure. It’s going to be a fascinating relegation battle. I thought it would be a bottom four of Watford, Burnley, Newcastle and Norwich but it looks like Leeds are getting dragged into it now. Interesting times ahead!
So, this is a big game for Watford. However, it’s also a big game for West Ham who need to get back to winning ways. A few weeks ago, it looked like they would really challenge for a Top Four finish given their advantage over the likes of Arsenal, Spurs and Manchester United. They have given that advantage away with disappointing results against Wolves, Brighton, Burnley and Southampton while they were hammered away from home by Arsenal and Manchester City. They were always likely to come up short, but they’ve been blown away in recent weeks. Spurs went past them at the weekend, and they still have two games in hand on them. United are only one point behind with two games in hand, so it looks like The Hammers will fall out of the Top Six, never mind Top Four! Despite that, this is a fantastic chance for West Ham to get back to winning ways. They are always going to come up short to some degree against the top sides, but they are still playing well enough to beat the likes of Watford who have been bang average this season. At 2.26, it is worth taking a chance on West Ham and surely they’ll have a fitness edge over the home side here who haven’t played in so long.
The Striker Says:
Three points win West Ham to beat Watford at 2.26 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWatwhu
● Watford have lost four of their last five Premier League games against West Ham (W1), more than they had in their first nine against them in the competition (W4 D2 L3).
● West Ham have won their last three Premier League games against Watford, netting 10 goals in the process. The Hammers had only scored nine goals in their previous nine against the Hornets in the competition (W2 D2 L5).
● Watford won their last league game in both 2019 (vs Aston Villa) and 2020 (vs Norwich), last doing so in three consecutive calendar years between 2010 and 2012.
● West Ham have won their final league game in just one of the last 12 calendar years (D4 L7), beating Southampton 2-1 in 2015. When playing such games away from home, the Hammers are winless since 2003 (2-0 v Nottingham Forest), drawing three and losing six since.
● West Ham have already lost against Brentford this season, having lost just one of their 12 Premier League games against promoted sides in the last two campaigns combined (W7 D4). The Hammers last lost consecutive such matches in February/September 2018 (vs Brighton and Wolves).
● Watford have lost four of their last five Premier League home games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 15 at Vicarage Road in the competition. The Hornets are looking to avoid losing three consecutive home league games within the same top-flight season for the first time since 1987-88, a run of five between February and April.
● West Ham have lost three of their last four Premier League away games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 17 on the road (W10 D4 L3).
● Having won his first four Premier League games against West Ham boss David Moyes (all with Chelsea between 2002 and 2003), Watford’s Claudio Ranieri has failed to win either of his last two against the Scotsman in the competition (D1 L1), most recently a 2-1 loss with Leicester against Sunderland in December 2016.
● Emmanuel Dennis has been directly involved in nine goals in his last seven Premier League games for Watford (5 goals, 4 assists), having a hand in 64% of the goals the Hornets have scored in these games (9/14).
● Declan Rice has played 149 Premier League games for West Ham, and will become the 17th different player to reach 150 for the club in the competition. At 22 years and 348 days on the day of this game, he’ll be almost three years younger than the previous youngest player to reach the milestone for the Hammers (Mark Noble in 2013, 25y 267d).
LEICESTER V LIVERPOOL
8pm It’s a shame to lose the TV game at 5-30pm, so we go straight to the 8pm game to finish the day as Leicester hosting Liverpool. Brendan Rodgers faces his old club under increasing pressure as Leicester continue to play average football. A huge amount of the media focus went to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer this season, but now he’s gone it’s definitely going to turn to Brendan Rodgers if Leicester continue their poor form. They have gone from challenging for Champions League football to sitting in 10th and they have been poor in Europe too. I won’t read too much into them conceding six goals against Manchester City on Boxing Day as that can happen to any side in the world, but they really need to start improving against the smaller sides. Perhaps it is a sign of just how average they have been this season that Liverpool are trading as short as 1.4 here. Liverpool have been great this season, but usually they wouldn’t be that short away from home against Leicester over the last two years.
These sides actually played out a very entertaining 3-3 draw in the League Cup on the 22nd and Liverpool win 5-4 on penalties. With Liverpool’s Boxing Day fixture against Leeds postponed, this is actually Liverpool’s next fixture so it’s back-to-back Leicester games for them! Hopefully we see the same amount of action we had in that game as it would be fantastic to watch, but I can see a more controlled performance from Liverpool here. Leicester are just conceding too many chances and goals this season, it’s hard to see how they can stop Liverpool. When you look at the xG figures from Liverpool this season, you just can’t help but be impressed – they are creating so much. The 1.4 is very tempting on a Liverpool win, but I’m going to go for a bigger price on them to cover the handicap. They are trading 1.96 to cover the 1.5 goal handicap and that looks well worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Liverpool -1.5 goals to beat Leicester at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeiliv
● Leicester won their last league game against Liverpool 3-1 in February, last winning consecutive such matches against the Reds in April 1999.
● Despite losing this exact fixture last season, Liverpool have won three of their last four away league games against Leicester, more than they had in their previous nine such visits (W2 D3 L4).
● Following their 3-3 draw in the EFL Cup earlier this month, Leicester have scored three goals in both of their last two meetings with Liverpool in all competitions. The last team to score 3+ goals in three consecutive games against the Reds were Arsenal in the 2006-07 campaign.
● Leicester have lost their final league game in just two of the last 10 calendar years (W5 D3), with those defeats coming against Liverpool in 2017 and Cardiff City in 2018.
● Liverpool haven’t lost their final league game in any of the last seven calendar years (W6 D1), last doing so in a 2-1 defeat at Chelsea in 2013.
● Leicester have won their last two Premier League home games, scoring eight goals in the process (4-2 vs Watford, 4-0 vs Newcastle). The Foxes haven’t won three in a row at home in the competition since a run of seven between August and December 2019.
● Having lost two of their first four Premier League away games in 2021 (W2) – including a 3-1 loss at Leicester in February) – Liverpool have lost just one of their last 16 on the road in the competition (W12 D3).
● Leicester have conceded 63 goals in 39 Premier League games in 2021 – only in 2001 (66) and 2017 (64) have they shipped more in a single calendar year in the competition.
● Liverpool’s Diogo Jota has scored four goals in his last four Premier League games against Leicester, including netting a hat-trick for Wolves in January 2019.
● Divock Origi has scored five goals in his last six away games for Liverpool in all competitions, more than he had in his previous 40 on the road for the Reds (4).