PREMIER LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Striker previews Tuesday’s Premier League games with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
CRYSTAL PALACE V BRENTFORD
7.30pm We have our first midweek Premier League fixture list on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! As I said at the weekend, this is the first busy period for the clubs after a relatively slow start to the season. Once the domestic cups and European games kick in they’ll be used to having two games a week. We have some cracking action to enjoy though and as always plenty of talking points. We start with Crystal Palace hosting Brentford, and this will be an interesting game. You’d have to say both sides are reasonably close together quality wise, and they have both had decent starts to the season. Palace won’t be unhappy with four points from their opening four games considering that they have had to play Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City already. They took a 2-0 lead against City at the weekend, but it was probably “too early” in the game and City were always likely to come back and win! Brentford have already had a rollercoaster season with plenty of action at both ends of the pitch – it’s been highlighted by beating Manchester United 4-0 but then they have lost 3-2 to Fulham. They’ll be disappointed with a 1-1 draw against Everton at the weekend – they let us down too as that was a very confident bet – however they still created an xG of 2.57 and should have won the game. It was just “one of those days.”
Truth be told when I look at this fixture I really don’t see much in it. Crystal Palace are rightfully favourites because they have home advantage, but I just wouldn’t have them as short as 2.18. Brentford might have only won once in their four games, but they finished with a bigger xG than they conceded in their two draws. However, I am definitely a little worried about the performance away to Fulham – that being said Fulham haven’t looked too bad back in the Premier League. I feel the best option here is a small lay of Palace at 2.18, purely from a value point of view. I fully accept the fact that Brentford are a much better wise at home compared to away from home, but I still feel that they are creating enough chances here to make this game closer than odds of 2.18 suggest. I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see a crazy 3-3 or 4-4 draw here either!
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Brentford at 2.18 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryBre
● The home side hasn’t lost any of the last seven league meetings between Crystal Palace and Brentford (W4 D3), with both Premier League games between the sides last season ending goalless.
● Brentford are winless in their last four away league games against Crystal Palace (D2 L2), since a 2-0 victory in March 1957.
● Crystal Palace vs Brentford could become the first fixture in English top-flight history to see the first three meetings at this level between two sides end goalless, with both games ending 0-0 in 2021-22.
● Crystal Palace have won just two of their last 19 Premier League London derbies (D8 L9), picking up 3-0 wins over both Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal last season.
● Brentford have lost just one of their last 12 league games played on a Tuesday (W5 D6), though that defeat did come at Southampton in their only such game played in the Premier League. In fact, Brentford have lost all six of their Premier League games played between Monday and Thursday.
● Crystal Palace have won four of their last six home Premier League matches (D1 L1), as many as in their first 15 at Selhurst Park under manager Patrick Vieira (W4 D7 L4).
● Brentford have avoided defeat in four of their last seven Premier League matches when conceding first (W2 D2 L3), as many as in their first 20 matches in the competition when they conceded the first goal (W2 D2 L16).
● Brentford kept clean sheets in two of their first three away Premier League matches but have since conceded in each of their last 18 on the road (39 goals conceded), the longest current run in the division and their longest run without an away league clean sheet since a 19-game run between September 1984 and April 1985.
● Crystal Palace’s Ebere Eze has assisted three goals in his last six Premier League appearances, as many as in his previous 25 games in the competition. Eze already has more assists this season (2 in 4 games) than he managed last season (1 in 13 games).
● Wilfried Zaha has scored five of Crystal Palace’s last six home Premier League goals, with the other netted by Jean-Philippe Mateta against Aston Villa. Since the start of last season, Zaha has scored in six of Palace’s eight home league wins (75%), including all four in 2022.
FULHAM V BRIGHTON
7.30pm Another interesting market here as Fulham host Brighton. As I mentioned above, Fulham have done a great job do far in the Premier League. They performed well against Arsenal at the weekend, and they’ll be delighted with five points from four games all told. I know they went on to lose to Arsenal at the weekend, and Arsenal pretty much dominated the game, but there’s a big gulf in class there and Fulham can only really hang on for a draw in those type of games. They very nearly got one too after taking the lead, and let’s not forget they managed to hold Liverpool to a draw here on the opening weekend. Home form is always going to vital for any side who have just come up from the Championship, and at the moment Fulham have been doing a good job with that draw against Liverpool and then beating Brentford. Brighton notched up another win at the weekend, they’ve had a fantastic start to the season and actually sit just inside the Top Four heading into this round of fixtures. It’s very early days, but perhaps they can challenge for a European spot? They certainly have the talent in the squad, and they have played superb football for a while now. It’s almost hard to believe they were involved in a relegation battle between 2018/19 and 2020/21 but obviously we all saw how good they were playing in 2020/21 they just weren’t getting the results.
Brighton have put in four very impressive performances this season. They have been consistent, and created xG figures of 1.78, 1.97, 1.79 and 1.73. They really should have beaten Newcastle but had to settle for a 0-0 draw. Although Brighton have really impressed me this season, you have to give credit to Fulham with how good they have been. I really didn’t expect them to play as well as they have in their opening four games. They have been solid at the back – obviously they struggled against Liverpool and Arsenal, but nothing you wouldn’t expect. Betting is all about value, and although Brighton have been impressive I still feel a small lay on them here at 2.32 from a value point of view. Much like the game above, I fully expect the game to be closer than the odds suggest. Fulham have shown enough to get a result here.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Brighton to beat Fulham at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulBri
● Fulham are unbeaten in all four of their Premier League games against Brighton (W1 D3), with both meetings the last time the sides met in 2020-21 ending goalless.
● Brighton lost 11 of their first 13 away league games against Fulham (W2) between 1929 and 1985 but have since won five of their last nine at the Cottagers since 1988 (D1 L3).
● Brighton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last seven Premier League games against promoted sides (W5 D2) since a 1-0 loss at West Brom in February 2021. That defeat to the Baggies is their only loss against a promoted side in their last 15 such games (W7 D7).
● Fulham have won just one of their last 16 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D7 L8), though that was a home victory over Brighton on a Tuesday in January 2019.
● Brighton failed to win a single midweek (Tues, Weds, Thurs) Premier League game last season, drawing three and losing four. Their previous three such matches before this saw them draw with Chelsea and pick up victories over Liverpool and Manchester City.
● Following away wins against Manchester United and West Ham United this season, Brighton are looking to win their opening three away league games in a campaign for only the fourth time, also doing so in 1953-54, 1957-58 (both Third Division South) and 2011-12 (Championship).
● Fulham have picked up four points in their first two home Premier League matches this season (W1 D1), a tally that took them six home games to reach in their last top-flight campaign in 2020-21 (W1 D1 L4). The Cottagers are looking for consecutive home Premier League wins for the first time since April 2019.
● Brighton have won their last two away Premier League matches, their seventh run of consecutive away top-flight wins. The Seagulls have never managed three away wins in a row in the English top-flight.
● Fulham’s Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored three goals in his two Premier League starts against Brighton. His goals against the Seagulls accounted for 27% of his total strikes in the 2018-19 campaign (3/11).
● Fulham manager Marco Silva has lost his last five Premier League games against English managers (one each vs Smith, Howe, Wilder, Dyche and Potter). The last manager to lose more consecutively against Englishmen was Mick McCarthy between 2003 and 2005 with Sunderland (10 in a row).
SOUTHAMPTON V CHELSEA
7.45pm Southampton host Chelsea next and this is the highlight fixture of the evening for me. Chelsea recorded a much needed win at the weekend but I still feel the jury is out. They conceded a bigger xG figure than they created at home to Leicester, and given how poor Leicester have been this season that is a worry. Obviously they got hit with a hammer blow with the late Spurs goals and we can forgive them that, but then the performance against Leeds was very average and given the improvement of Arsenal this season there’s a good chance they could push out Chelsea from the Top Four. It’s clear that they are under pressure, they haven’t had a good transfer window and they will likely go backwards this season. I thought they would swap places with Spurs this season, but you have to say that Arsenal are definitely in the mix. It’s early days though, we all know Arsenal can implode from anywhere but they do look to have a bit of backbone about them these days. With the pressure on Chelsea in the Top Four race, they simply must win games like this. Chelsea are trading 1.62 at the time of writing, and I’m sure there will be plenty of big opinions either side of the book.
Southampton played well at the weekend here against Manchester United but unfortunately couldn’t grind out a result and lost 1-0. United fans were delighted given how their side have crumbled in games like that recently, but it was still a positive for Southampton in my opinion. They have put in back-to-back solid performances now including the 2-1 win against Leicester. When you look at the relegation market, Southampton are in the top three in the betting. After seeing their last two games, I actually think they’ll be OK this season but I can fully understand why they are trading at those prices. They were a popular bet before the season started as “dark horses.” Manchester United were trading around 1.85 away to Southampton at the weekend when I previewed the game, and then they drifted out to odds against before the game – even touched 2.2 at one point – and I feel Chelsea should be bigger than 1.62 here. It’s been a night of choosing the value bet and I have the same opinion on this game as above – I fully expect a closer game than the odds of 1.62 and I’m happy with a small Chelsea lay from a value point of view.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Chelsea to beat Southampton at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouChl
● Southampton have won just two of their last 18 Premier League games against Chelsea (D5 L11), with both of those victories coming at Stamford Bridge. They’re winless in nine at home against them (D2 L7) since a 2-1 win in March 2013.
● Chelsea have scored in each of their last 17 Premier League away games against Southampton, winning 6-0 in this exact fixture last season. It’s the longest scoring streak one team has had against another away from home in the history of the competition.
● Southampton’s 44 home goals conceded against Chelsea is the most they’ve shipped against a single side in the Premier League, while only at Spurs (51) have the Blues scored more on the road.
● Southampton have won just three of their last 20 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games (D7 L10). Saints have a lower win rate on Tuesdays than they do any other day of the week in the Premier League (21% – 9/44).
● After suffering a 3-0 reverse at Elland Road against Leeds, Chelsea are looking to avoid losing consecutive away Premier League games for the first time since December 2020. Manager Thomas Tuchel hasn’t lost consecutive away league games since August 2019 with Paris Saint Germain.
● Since the start of March, Southampton have lost more Premier League matches than any other side (11), winning just nine points from 16 matches in that time (W2 D3 L11).
● Southampton have lost six of their last eight home Premier League matches (W1 D1). They’ve already lost as many home games in 2022 (P12 W4 D2 L6) as they did in 2021 (P20 W6 D8 L6).
● Chelsea’s Mason Mount has been involved in five goals in his four Premier League starts against Southampton (4 goals, 1 assist), while only against Norwich (5) has he scored more Premier League goals than he has against Saints (4).
● Only against West Ham (14 – 8 goals, 6 assists) has Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling been involved in more Premier League goals than he has against Southampton (11 – 7 goals, 4 assists).
● Chelsea have seen a player sent off in each of their last two Premier League games, with Kalidou Koulibaly seeing red against Leeds and Conor Gallagher against Leicester. It’s the first time they’ve had a red in consecutive games since October 2014; the Blues have never had a player sent off in three games in a row.
LEEDS V EVERTON
8pm We finish the evening with my most confident bet of the evening as Leeds host Everton. Everton have put back-to-back 1-1 draws together against Nottingham Forest and Brentford, but their performances have been a major worry for me. They still appear to have major issues at the back, and there’s no doubt that they will be in the relegation mix again this season. They have conceded xG figures of 2.08, 2.37, 0.93 and 2.57. The only figure under 1.0 was when they had home advantage against Nottingham Forest and then they also conceded 2.37 against Aston Villa who look like a poor side too. I just look at Everton and see a host of issues these days – they are a Championship quality side in truth – but they might get away with it again this season and stay up. In Frank Lampard they don’t exactly have a manager that has improved them either, since he came in they haven’t changed or improved either, and it’s going to be another long season ahead for Everton fans. Compare that to Leeds fans who will be full of hope for the new season even though they had been involved in the relegation with Everton last season. You can’t help but be pleased with Leeds this season – they have had two nice wins here against Wolves and Chelsea, and then created a bigger xG than they conceded away to Southampton and although losing against Brighton; didn’t play too badly.
I’m very happy to be getting 2.2 on a Leeds win here. They have created xG figures of 1.15, 1.87, 2.13 and 1.07 this season. When you couple this with the xG figures that Everton have conceded this season, everything points to a Leeds win here. I know Leeds have a lot of issues at the back, but Everton are average going forward and aren’t good enough to take advantage of the issues Leeds have. Although Leeds are poor at the back, we all know how good they are going forward and given Everton are so average at the back, Leeds are going to have a host of chances here. I’d have them closer to 2.0 than 2.2 and this looks the best value bet of the evening in my opinion. Obviously we could see a lot of goals here, and Over 2.5 goals is an option at 1.9 but I just can’t away from the Leeds price here for my best bet. This Everton side are there for the taking.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Leeds to beat Everton at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeEve
● Following a 36-game unbeaten home league run against Everton between 1953 and 2001 (W28 D8), Leeds have lost two of their last four at Elland Road against the Toffees (D2).
● Everton have won five of their last eight league games against Leeds (D2 L1), more than they had in their previous 24 against the Whites (W4 D10 L10).
● Leeds have won 49% of their Premier League games on a Tuesday (17/35), their highest win rate on a specific day of the week in the competition. They’ve won five of their six such games since returning to the top-flight in 2020, though the exception was a 7-0 loss against Man City.
● Everton have won 42% of their Premier League games played on a Tuesday (19/45), their highest win rate on a specific day of the week in the competition.
● Leeds United are looking to win their opening three home league games in a season for the first time since 2009-10 in League One. In the top-flight, the Whites last did so in 1973-74 under Don Revie, going on to win their second top-flight title that season.
● Everton have failed to win any of their opening four Premier League games this season (D2 L2). The Toffees have only had longer winless starts to two Premier League campaigns, in 1994-95 (12 games) and 2010-11 (six).
● Leeds have won consecutive home Premier League matches for a fourth time since returning to the top-flight in 2020. The Whites haven’t won three in a row at Elland Road at this level since a run of five between April and August 2001.
● After losing his first three meetings with Leeds in all competitions, and his sides netting just one goal, Everton boss Frank Lampard has won his last three against the Whites by an aggregate score of 10-3. His first league victory with the Toffees came against Leeds, 3-0 in February last season.
● Following his goals at Elland Road against Wolves and Chelsea, Rodrigo is looking to become the first Leeds player to score in their first three home league games in a season since Luciano Becchio in 2012-13 and first in the top-flight since Lee Chapman in 1992-93.
● Anthony Gordon has had 11 of Everton’s 23 shots on target in the Premier League this season (48%) and is looking to find the net in consecutive top-flight appearances for the first time, having netted against Brentford on Saturday.